This season's iteration of the Tennessee Volunteers is a conundrum for analysts to get a feel for, which has resulted in projections that are from all over the board. You can find projections anywhere from 5-7 to 9-3 with just a little looking around, and guesses from fans can reach as high as a ten win season. So what should fans be looking forward to? Well, probably the unexpected.
Tennessee will have a new starting quarterback no matter who wins the job. Quinten Dormady isn't a statue, but he's also not Josh Dobbs running out of the backfield. He may be a step up as a passer though. Jarrett Guarantano is a very athletic quarterback with speed to spare from the quarterback position, but he's a work in progress as a passer and really isn't as elusive in the open field as Dobbs was. Ultimately, the quarterbacks will have to play to their personal strengths and make smart decisions with the football.
Normally, a young quarterback's best friend is an experienced running back. John Kelly sort of fits that bill. He's only started one game, but in two seasons in Knoxville Kelly has proven himself to be a productive, explosive, and tough back capable of carrying the load out of the backfield. He's averaged 5.8 yards per carry in his 138 career carries with 6 touchdowns. He is still working to become a consistent receiver out of the backfield, but he's certainly capable of getting the job done. The bigger question is the collection of backs behind him, where there is plenty of talent but almost no experience. Some of these young backs will have to step up and help carry the load.
The receivers all comes down to who is going to help Jauan Jennings. Josh Smith would be the answer normally, but he had the worst season of his career at Tennessee statistically last year which makes it tough to figure him out. Tyler Byrd, Marquez Callaway, Latrell Williams, and Brandon Johnson all have the talent but need to get more involved to pick up the slack for the departure of Josh Malone. Jeff George played a lot of minutes last year but only contributed a single reception. A quartet of freshmen join the mix, and while there is the talent to help right away it's tough to gauge how well they'll make the jump to college. Tight end Ethan Wolf has been inconsistent but has shown the talent to be a top tight end in the SEC. He too needs the depth behind him to sort itself out.
The offensive line is one of the areas Vol fans can feel confident about. Drew Richmond has been steadily improving and is perceived as a near lock to start at left tackle. Freshman early enrollee Trey Smith immediately commanded attention with his physicality and skill set and appears poised to start somewhere. Jack Jones, Jashon Robertson, Coleman Thomas, and Venzell Boulware provide strong, steady presences at the inside spots. Chance Hall is on the mend and with his talent and versatility could play at guard or tackle, and Marcus Tatum and Brett Kendrick provide additional strong options at the tackle spots. There is talent, depth, and experience to spare on the offensive line, which should be able to help every other aspect of the offense.
Defensively, there are a ton of questions. At defensive tackle, Kendal Vickers and Kahlil McKenzie are healthy and ready to compete. Alexis Johnson and Quay Picou had strong springs. Newcomers like Eric Crosby and Kivon Bennett currently look redshirt-bound despite their 4-star rankings. Shy Tuttle's return is still in question. Matthew Butler is probably ready to help somewhere on the defensive line, but at 6-4, 274 it's hard to say whether he'll make more of an impact at end or tackle. Walk-on Paul Bain has played and showed flashes at times, but he's still not necessarily at the level of some of the other options. Even if Bennett and Crosby need redshirt seasons, such a luxury may be in doubt depending on the availability of Tuttle.
At end, Jonathan Kongbo and Darrell Taylor, the likely starters out of spring, are joined by Deandre Johnson and Kyle Phillips as the likely top four options. Converted linebacker Ja'Quain Blakely didn't look ready to help this spring, and Ryan Thaxton still has work to be done in order to get to the point physically that he can help out at this level. So who are the other options right now? Matthew Butler is pretty much it at this point. Keep an eye on the possibility that LaTrell Bumphus could move to defense if tight end doesn't pan out this spring or if the need on defense is such that he is needed on that side of the ball. As is, Bumphus would need a number change if that happens. Ryan Thaxton's development is very important at this juncture. They desperately need options if injuries impact the group.
The news at linebacker really isn't all that bad. Experienced options like Darrin Kirkland Jr., Cortez McDowell, and Colton Jumper are in place, and young exciting players like Quart'e Sapp, Daniel Bituli, and Will Ignont are in the mix as well. Dillon Bates garnered more minutes last year with the injury ravaged group, and the same is true of Elliott Berry. Shanon Reid and Austin Smith are interesting names to watch in the group. Reid has added about 10 pounds since spring football, and with his 4.4 range speed he could begin to steal minutes as the season progresses. Smith moves back to linebacker after moving to end last year. He is a true linebacker, but one that likes to attack. He could be a nice asset in situations where the defense wants to really get after the passer.
Corner is really interesting because things really are so wide open. Aside from the likelihood of Rashaan Gaulden retaining his starting nickel job, everything is up for grabs. Emmanuel Moseley and Justin Martin are experienced options. Baylen Buchanan and Marquill Osborne displayed flashes of their potential last season. D.J. Henderson is looking to make an impact after failing to do so last year. Shaq Wiggins has elected to end his collegiate journey with the Vols after stops in Athens and Louisville. A trio of talented newcomers join the mix in Cheyenne Labruzza, Shawn Shamburger, and Terrell Bailey. The secondary really struggled last year despite an excellent pass rush group up front. With Corey Vereen, Derek Barnett, and LaTroy Lewis all pursuing their NFL dreams and Cam Sutton now a Pittsburgh Steeler, the remaining corners will have to step up in a big way.
Todd Kelly Jr. is the most recognizable name at safety for the Vols right now, but the four veteran options all have famous family members. Nigel Warrior had a strong spring and has emerged as a likely starter, a first step in creating his own legacy at Tennessee like his father Dale Carter did before him. Evan Berry hasn't entirely emerged on defense like his Pro Bowl brother Eric, but Evan is an All-American kick returner, cementing his own place in the Tennessee record books. Micah Abernathy is creating his legacy on the football field, but his grandfather created a legacy by fighting for civil rights alongside the likes of Martin Luther King Jr. This quartet who are emerging from the shadows of those who came before them will be joined by freshmen Maleik Gray and Theo Jackson. The safeties weren't always excellent, but they were far from the worst group on the field. In the case of Kelly, he's dropped some weight and will look to be more rangy than he was last year. Warrior and Abernathy should be much more comfortable in their roles at safety. Berry will need to emerge on defense or run the risk of being surpassed by Gray, who has all the talent in the world but not much of a clue as to what he's doing at safety after playing linebacker in high school.
Aaron Medley has certainly frustrated fans at times, either when he's kicking off out of bounds or when he misdirects long field goals, but despite that frustration he holds onto the starting job due to his career 71.23% field goal percentage and 97 career touchbacks on kickoffs. He's also been very reliable on PATs, not missing one since his freshman season. Fans hoping he will be pushed for the job by incoming freshman Brent Cimaglia are probably in for disappointment unless Cimaglia ends up taking over kickoff duties. Cimaglia has a strong leg but is still in need of accuracy, especially on field goals.
Trevor Daniel is both one of the best punters in the SEC and in the nation, continuing the current streak of success with punters the Vols have enjoyed over the last couple decades. His understudy this season will be elite walk-on punter Joe Doyle, one of the nation's best in the last recruiting cycle. Doyle was one of the top punters at the Kohl's Kicking National Invitational Camp and was offered spots in both the Under Armour and U.S. Army All-American bowls. Doyle, like Cimaglia, is likely on the road to a redshirt before competing to take over their respective kicking jobs next year.
On kick returns, I've already mentioned Evan Berry's record-setting stint at Tennessee. Right now, it would appear that punt returns will be handled by Marquez Callaway. Callaway, who's very much in the mix for a starting receiver job, has already shown flashes of how good he can be as a punt returner with two returns for 114 yards and a touchdown last season.
If you've followed me so far, you can see that at this point I've talked about a lot of promising potential but not a ton of proven commodities at most spots. That's pretty much the whole story on Tennessee: a piece here and a piece there, but for the most part highly rated players who everyone around the program is hoping will play to their full potential. With a nearly new staff (two position coaches, one coordinator in the same positions they held last season) there's plenty of reason for fans to have hope, but remember that anyone who has doubts also has plenty of reason to do so.
With so many unknowns on the roster, most will not offer up the benefit of the doubt to the new starters or coaches. Add in the returning constant of head coach Butch Jones, a coach now plagued by a reputation for failing to meet expectations, and even Bob Shoop, a coach who spearheaded one of the worst defensive efforts in program history over the second half of the season, and you have a strong argument against the Vols.
So what do I expect? The unexpected, for better or worse. If we're lucky, the staff fills the holes with quality starters, the new coaches pay off in a big way, and Tennessee does what they were expected to do...a year late. If we're unlucky, the roster is still too thin in spots and simply can't get rolling in the same direction, either with the staff or the players, and fans take a punch to the gut with a return to .500 football or worse. To be honest, I'm having the hardest time believing that the Vols will split the difference. If the Vols have a good enough roster to win eight games, I'm not enough of a believer in Georgia or Florida to believe the Vols couldn't and wouldn't beat them. If the Vols aren't good enough to beat Florida or Georgia, I have no reason to believe they can beat Georgia Tech or South Carolina, and maybe not even Kentucky.
That's my biggest issue right now is I think this season will be all or nothing, win big or lose big. No middle road, and that belief on my part is why I think this is as unpredictable a team as there is in the country. With the schedule and the status of the Vols opponents throughout the East, if they find the answers they're looking for the East will be theirs. If it isn't, I think Tennessee may find themselves waiting to see what new AD John Currie will decide regarding Butch Jones's future. Here's hoping I'm both right and that we're all lucky on the road to a 10-11 win season! GBO!
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