Saturday, July 25, 2020

Breaking Down the 2020-21 Men's Basketball Roster

Tennessee had an up-and-down 2019-20 season before it was suspended, showing strong play at times and then falling apart at others and failing to win games they should have been able to on paper. Some of that came from losing the heart and soul of the roster in Lamonte Turner to a lingering shoulder problem, but a lot of it could also be attributed to youth after losing Kyle Alexander, Jordan Bone, Admiral Schofield, and Grant Williams to the NBA. Now, the roster adds three talented freshmen and a graduate transfer to the roster, and they may end up adding another piece to the roster in Malachi Wideman when the football season closes (he will be discussed in here as well although his basketball future is a bit more unclear). 

A good place to start would seem to be defending SEC Defensive Player of the Year Yves Pons, who also garnered SEC All-Defensive Team in 2020. His return is currently up in the air as he has declared for the NBA Draft but still has time to withdraw his name from consideration. However, the expected August 3rd deadline to withdraw seems likely to occur long before the combine, so Pons may be forced to make a decision without getting feedback. Reports currently believe he would be a potential combine invitee, but for fans looking for good news, he's currently in Knoxville working out with the team. If Pons does return, the Vols are getting back a ridiculously athletic guard/forward who has gotten significantly better with each season at UT. That improvement culminated in his special 2019-20 season, in which he averaged 10.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, and 2.4 blocks per game while shooting 48.9% from the field, 34.9% from three, and 63.8% from the free-throw line. Pons was a defensive revelation for the Vols last season, serving to help replace the combined 3.7 blocks per game that Alexander, Schofield, and Williams had brought to the table the season before. Pons, Josiah-Jordan James, and John Fulkerson combined for 4.2 per game between them, with the trio becoming something of a defensive big three for Tennessee, who remained scrappy all season on the defensive side of the court. In fact, blocks per game is one of the few areas where the Vols actually improved over the 2018-19 season. Offensively, Pons is still very raw and he would certainly benefit from another season of college basketball. In fact, his offense is probably the only barrier to being drafted this year. Pons's versatility allows him to play anywhere from the shooting guard through power forward spots, but his size (6-6, 215) and athleticism likely means he's best suited to play small forward.

Looking at the guard position, returning point guard Santiago Vescovi is a good place to start. A mid-season addition, Vescovi quickly established himself as a starter. The 6-3, 188-pound Uruguayan product was playing ball in Australia when the Vols landed him, and he showed up and showed out, displaying three-point sharpshooting and stabilizing the point guard position. In his 19 starts, he averaged 10.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks per game while shooting 37.3% from the field, 36.0% from three, and 82.4% from the charity stripe. He needs to cut down on his turnovers (3.5 per game), but part of that is him playing fast, and another factor was the youth and inconsistency of the roster as a whole, so I expect the assist and turnover numbers to improve. He has shown a knack for spectacular passes and is a willing and capable defender in his own right, a requirement from Rick Barnes if you want to be a starter on one of his teams. With a full season, it's likely Vescovi could have made SEC All-Freshman last year.

Josiah-Jordan James came to Knoxville as a 5-star recruit, but he wasn't your typical 5-star in that he was far from a finished product. He has plenty of ability, but he hadn't quite mastered how to use it all yet. He can play anywhere from point guard to small forward at 6-6, 207, but prior to Vescovi's arrival, most of his playing time was running point, where he was capable but turnover-prone. Once the staff was able to use him more freely, he began to come into his own more, averaging 7.4 points, 5.5 assists, 2.9 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game on the season while shooting 37.0% from the field, 36.7% from three, and 77.8% from the stripe. He was second on the team in rebounds per game while becoming a Swiss Army knife utility player, and he's a strong candidate for the sixth man for the team in 2020-21. James has the makings of a 3-4 year college player, which is good news for the Vols.

Davonte "Big Ticket" Gaines didn't play heavy minutes last season, but he made the most of the minute he did play, proving a valuable player off the bench at guard with 2.5 points, 1.9 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.8 steals, and 0.2 blocks per game in just 10.4 minutes per game. A long player at 6-7, he needs to continue to build on his lean 181 pounds. While the incoming 5-star guards will likely keep Gaines coming off the bench, the departure of the somewhat similar Jalen Johnson clears the way for more minutes this season for Gaines as he continues to develop consistency in his play.

Victor Bailey Jr. sees himself become eligible this season after sitting out last year per transfer rules, having played his first two seasons at Oregon. Bailey is capable of playing point or shooting guard, but his skill set probably makes him a natural scorer rather than a distributor. Another utility player off the bench, he averaged 7.0 points, 1.9 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.5 steals, and 0.1 blocks per game at Oregon while shooting 41.5% from the field, 38.3% from three, and 88.9% from the stripe. Bailey hasn't found many shots he can't hit and certainly hasn't found any he's unwilling to take. At 6-4, 179, he's a bit longer than some of the other shooting aces the Vols have had in recent seasons. He's going to have an uphill battle to start, but he may be a threat for that sixth man role this season as he competes for minutes with James.

Don't be shocked if the Vols use a three-guard look a lot this season and for good reason as they add a pair of 5-star guards. Thick-built shooting guard Jaden Springer was the highest-rated of the additions this cycle and the third-highest rated signee all-time in Knoxville. Springer was consistently excellent throughout high school, including a season playing varsity in eighth grade. At 6-4, 204-pounds, he's not likely to be pushed around by older guards and can hold his own in the paint when he drives the lane. Springer has a three in his arsenal, but it's not necessarily his primary scoring option as he prefers to take it to the basket. If he can't get there, he has a nice pull-up jumper or is a gifted enough passer to kick it back out. He's a strong defender who shows the ability to steal or block shots as well as maintaining good position. He doesn't have any glaring weaknesses in his game, but showing more consistency from the perimeter in shooting would help his NBA stock.

Keon Johnson is the other 5-star, the 4th highest-ranked recruit in program history. If you're looking for shooting, Johnson is more than willing to abide. More than capable of engaging in his own high-flying antics, but he shows a much more comfortable shooting stroke from three-point range and can hurt opponents shooting from anywhere on the floor. He's well-built, although he carries a bit less weight on his 6-5 frame than Springer. A strong defender, Johnson averaged 2.8 steals and 2 blocks per game for his high school career. He can be a facilitator, but it doesn't come naturally to him in the way it should for a point guard. He is a high-volume rebounder from the guard position in addition to being an aggressive scorer from all over the floor. Johnson might be the more polished scorer, but he lacks some of the physical gifts of Springer, but between the two they bring everything a team could ask for to the floor, and the Vols will have a great problem trying to find a way to get all their talented guards on the floor throughout the season.

In the post last season, Pons frequent collaborator was John Fulkerson, who had a career-best season by a mile. Fulkerson showed out averaging 13.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game. The 6-9, 215-pound power forward was usually thrust into the role of handling an opponent's center due to the Vols struggling to find a replacement for Alexander most of the season, and even when transfer Uros Plavsic was declared eligible, it was too late to get him caught up and worked into the rotation properly. Fulkerson is a high-energy player who is constantly getting up and down the floor in a hurry, disrupting the opponent. That much he always brought to the team, but last season he upped his game on offense, making himself a nightmare to have to defend as well. 

Olivier Nkamhoua was one of the most frequent contributors off the bench, although it was most frequently a rotation of Pons, Fulkerson, and James handling the frontcourt duties. Nkamhoua, a former high school point guard before his growth spurt, averaged 3.3 points and 3.0 rebounds per game while adding in 0.5 blocks per game, and his continued development will be critical in creating a real rotation in the frontcourt. The same is true of Uros Plavsic, a transfer from Arizona State who battled with the NCAA for eligibility, and then battled to find consistency once he got it, only averaging 2.6 points and 0.9 rebounds in his 16 games played. A full offseason with the team should aid him in developing. Drew Pember didn't play heavy minutes, but he showed flashes of the scoring that made him a valued recruit for the Vols. At 6-10 with a three-point shot in his arsenal, Pember needs to build on his frame but as he gains weight he should gain minutes as well. While these three served as the bulk of the post help last season, Barnes didn't fail to go out and get some additional help.

Corey Walker Jr. was a consensus top 75 prospect and 4-star recruit, checking in at a solid 6-8, 219-pounds with an advanced skill set aided by a year in prep school at Hargrave Military Academy, where he averaged 15.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.5 blocks per game from his small forward spot. Well-developed coming into the Vols program, he should be able to help out immediately in the post at the three and four spots. He was a double-double machine in high school and should continue to offer up strong post play at the college level.

Barnes also went out and landed grad transfer EJ Anosike, the younger brother of former Lady Vol standout Nicky Anosike. EJ is a big bodied post at 6-7, 245, and he used his physicality in high school to average 18 points, 12 rebounds, 3 blocks, and 3 steals as a senior. He then spent a year in prep school before starting his college career at Sacred Heart. As a sophomore, he averaged 14.3 points and 8.1 rebounds, but he really exploded as a senior. As a senior, he averaged 15.7 points, 11.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1 steal, and 0.3 blocks per game, shooting 48.4% from the field, 25.0% from three, and 72.8% from the stripe. There's no guarantee that Anosike can duplicate that success at Tennessee, but at worst he should provide a valuable depth piece off the bench and a viable option to help give Pons and Fulkerson a break if Walker, Nkamhoua, Plavsic, and Pember aren't ready for bigger roles yet.

A potential wildcard for this coming season is Vol freshman wide receiver Malachi Wideman, a 4-star shooting guard in his own right and a ridiculously athletic highlight reel dunking machine. He is on a football scholarship, so for the purposes of basketball he would be considered a walk-on. He's not currently listed on the roster, but he may not be added until football ends, so keep an eye out for his possible addition to the guard position.