Breaking Down the 2020-21 Lady Vols Roster

 Since the inception of the NCAA tournament, Tennessee has only had three head coaches. Obviously, Pat Summitt's name is synonymous with women's basketball and the Lady Vols, and her legacy doesn't need elaborating on by some nobody like me when she has been praised by everyone within coaching, playing, and writing circles. Her tenure with the Vols was ended too soon by a health issue that forced early retirement, and Holly Warlick stepped in to take over the team for her former head coach and then-boss. I will not join the chorus that likes to dismiss Holly's time in Knoxville. She left with a 72% winning percentage, a 13-7 NCAA tournament record, and 10-7 SEC tournament record. However, she followed a legend who had set a certain standard of excellence, and Warlick was regrettably destined to fail to meet those expectations.

Enter the 2019-20 season, and Kellie Jolly-Harper is named the new head coach of Tennessee. Harper, who had found some success as a head coach but it had been largely middling success following her excellent playing career with the Lady Vols under Summitt. Harper was met with mixed reaction after a number of other higher-profile names had been tied to the job, but her first season was a surprise as she led the Lady Vols to a 21-10 record and a winning conference record at 10-6. The team saw some attrition over the offseason, but Harper also made quality additions either in the form of freshmen or transfers.

Rennia Davis is on the road to establishing herself as one of the greatest Lady Vols in program history statistically, and that's no small feat. She has an excellent chance to finish her time in Knoxville with 2,000 points and 1,000 rebounds. Davis does a bit of everything, shooting almost 47% from the field, 33% from three, and 80% from the free-throw line as a bit of a guard/forward hybrid. She's also averaged 1.1 steals per game as she's consistently been a strong defender. Davis is the returning leading scorer and rebounder, and she is the heart and soul of the team heading into her senior season. She was named as an All-SEC first-teamer and Honorable Mention All-American last season, and it's reasonable to assume the best is yet to come.

Rae Burrell made a big jump from her freshman to sophomore campaigns, seeing her averages jump from 3.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 0.4 assists to 10.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists while moving from being the top reserve to a starter over the final nine games of the season. She can score in bunches, scoring double figures in half of the games last season, hitting at least 15 points in nine games and at least 20 in three. Burrell tied for second on the team from three at 32.8% while shooting 41% from the field. A solid defender but this is an area with room for improvement still. With her length, Burrell is a pain to defend, and if the defense grows to match the offense she'll be a staple in the starting lineup for the next two years.

Jordan Horston made her presence known quickly upon arriving in Knoxville, leading the team in assists and steals in just her first season. She was also second in blocks and three-pointers made and third in points and rebounds while starting 22 of 31 games played. 6-2 and able to run the point, play shooting guard or hold her own in the paint, her versatile skill set made her a nightmare to defend and to score on. She averaged 10.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.8 blocks while shooting 39.4% from the field, 30.0% from three, and 59.3% from the stripe. In fact, that free throw shooting was probably the only glaring area of weakness for Horston, and if that gets improved upon it's going to be hard to justify taking her off the court no matter the situation.

Tamari Key was another standout newcomer, who proved to be a defensive nightmare for opponents as a true freshman, averaging 2.8 blocks per game along with 7.3 points and 4.7 rebounds while starting 29 of 31 games played. At 6-5, Key has the length to match up with almost anyone, although her offensive skillset will still need refinement. She rotated pretty regularly with junior Kasiyahna Kushkituah, but Key's defense kept her on the floor as the regular starter. Further development could make her one of the best bigs in the SEC.

Speaking of Kushkituah, she was a top reserve in 2019-20, giving way in starts versus her sophomore campaign but also playing more minutes with improved averages. She averaged 5.4 points and 4.4 rebounds in 15.5 minutes per game played, providing a valid alternative to Key when she needed a breather. Kushkituah isn't the defender that Key is, although few are throughout the SEC. 

Emily Saunders didn't play a lot of minutes in her first season in Knoxville, averaging just 8.2 minutes in 10 games played, but she made the most of every opportunity, averaging 3.7 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 1 block per game played. Saunders has similar size to Key and clearly possesses some excellent potential as she continues to develop. Her minutes will likely go up this season, but really look for 2021-22 to be the season when she emerges as a key piece of the team.

Jaiden McCoy is a rare JUCO addition for Tennessee, and in her first year in Knoxville she averaged 2.7 points and 1.8 rebounds in 11.3 minutes per game. McCoy has good length at the forward position and there will be a vacant starting forward spot with the graduation of Lou Brown. McCoy is one of the tallest players on the roster, which should offer up an edge, but the incoming transfers and freshmen could make it difficult to emerge as much more than a reserve again.

Jessie Rennie came a long way to play in Knoxville, but the Aussie found herself making an impact in year one. In 12.5 minutes per game, Rennie came off the bench to average 2.7 points, 0.8 rebounds, and 0.7 assists while showing herself to be a sharpshooter for the team in the future, hitting 43.9% from the field, 46.3% from three, and 100% from the stripe. It's likely that her shooting prowess will see her role continue to expand this coming season.

Tennessee hasn't dabbled heavily in graduate transfers in the past, but this year they added two. The first was Keyen Green, who joins the Vols by way of Liberty, where she wasn't just a starter but was a star, averaging 13.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.7 blocks, and 0.8 steals in 22.5 minutes per game for her career. She's a true forward, having pretty limited offensive potential from beyond mid-range, attempting just 3 three-pointers in 3 seasons. She's a solid free-throw shooter, but also probably isn't someone you'd want getting fouled in a tight game. She has a very good chance to be a key reserve at minimum and may very well step into Brown's role as a starter.

After last season, point guards Zaay Green and Jazmine Massengill elected to transfer, maybe seeing the writing on the wall with Horston's emergence, but Tennessee isn't putting all their eggs into a single basket. Walker finished her career at Western Michigan having averaged 11.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.8 steals per game, averaging 16.0 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game last season after being forced to miss her true sophomore season with injury. She comes to the Vols with two years to play as a well-rounded point guard who can do everything well, although she doesn't necessarily blow you away in any one specific area.

Tess Darby is an in-state addition from Greenfield, Tennessee who averaged 17.0 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 2.2 steals in 153 career games. A 6-1 guard/forward, she shot 44% from three as a senior and 39.1% as a junior, proving to be a long and accurate shooter and a capable defender who is unafraid to get into the paint and get after it with her size. Darby fits the physical mold of the departed Lou Brown, who was herself a balanced sharpshooting guard/forward.

A 6-0 guard from Jonesboro, Arkansas, Destiny Salary also ran track in addition to being a standout on the basketball court, where she averaged 21 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, and 2 blocks per game as a senior. She was a three-time all-state performer who does a bit of everything on the court and is happy to run the floor, pull up and take a shot, or mix it up backing someone into the paint. Her balanced game enables her to excel in any aspect of the game, and that's a quality that usually lead to early playing time.

Harper went looking for talent, and her search led her to Marta Suarez from Oviedo, Spain, who averaged 12.7 points and 5.6 rebounds per game in Spain's LF2 League, shooting 46% from the field, 34.6% from three, and 73.3 from the stripe while draining 27 threes in 20 games played. While playing in the 2018 FIBA U16 Women's European Championship in Lithuania, Suarez averaged 7.0 points, 2.9 rebounds,. 1.9 steals, and 1.4 assists while shooting 51.1% from the field in 16.9 minutes per game. She came off the bench in 5 of 7 games, yet had an average plus/minus of 15, with just one game below 12 and five at 15+. She's an efficient scorer with good size at 6-2 who can play guard or forward, but it's harder to gauge how quickly she'll transition to the SEC.

This should be a long and competitive team with only two players on the entire roster under 6-0. In fact, Tennessee's average team length of over 6-1 is the best in the conference. However, that doesn't mean that there won't be an uphill battle for the Vols to take the top spot in the conference. They were six games out of the top spot last season and had the sixth overall record in the SEC. Being in such a stacked conference presents its challenges, and South Carolina in particular will prove difficult to unseat as they continue to bring in top recruiting classes under Dawn Staley's watch. Still, the Lady Vols are inevitably going to move up in the standings. It's likely that Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Kentucky will see some dropoff from last season, so if the Lady Vols can utilize their transfers to avoid the same, they'll have a shot to be a top 3 SEC team in 2020-21. However, they need solid point guard play to make that happen, and that will invariably fall to Horston and Walker, arguably the most important pieces to making improvements on last season's record.

My Two Cents: Tennessee's New Football Schedule

Rumors had flown around prior to the SEC announcement of the new schedules for every SEC team in the new conference-only ten-game slate, with most of the chatter suggesting that the Vols were most likely to draw LSU and Ole Miss onto their schedule. That definitely did not happen, with the Vols landing a more difficult draw of Texas A&M and Auburn, leaving the Vols to play three of the top four teams in the SEC West preseason rankings. That on top of facing Florida, Georgia, and a Kentucky team that might prove to be the best in program history.

At first blush, it's hard not to feel like the Vols got hammered by the SEC with the scheduling, although it's clear that they didn't get blasted as badly as Missouri and Arkansas. Still, the new schedules have obviously set up easier for the elite programs in the conference like LSU, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida while offering up more difficult paths for teams trying to climb into the next echelon. Tennessee is hoping to build on an 8-5 finish to the 2019 season, but the road to improving on that winning percentage certainly didn't get any easier with the reduction in games and additions to the schedule.

However, I think there's another way to view these additions: an opportunity to establish the progress on the rebuild and fully affirm the future of Jeremy Pruitt as the Vol head coach. Listen, I'm not suggesting this is an easy path, but winning 7 or 8 games off of this schedule will mean improving on the 2019 winning percentage of 61.5% and would mean winning 2-3 games over ranked opponents at least. If the Vols truly believe they have a winning roster, then drawing more opportunities to prove it should be viewed as a good thing, not a bad one.

I'm not suggesting that the Vols wouldn't win more games if they drew Ole Miss and Mississippi State to the schedule, but I am suggesting that those wins wouldn't bolster the resume or offer up as much reason to believe that the Vols have advanced as a program. Tennessee has a chance to prove who they are. They have a chance to establish their expected dominance in the trenches. A redshirt senior quarterback and starting experience at receiver, along with dynamic options at running back. A defense that was stout last season and is only expected to get better in spite of losses. The time is theoretically now to prove that Pruitt has this team ready to compete at a high level.

I'm not suggesting this is an ideal situation, but nothing about 2020 has been ideal up to this point, and making the most of the cards you're dealt is going to be key. Tennessee could fixate on the difficult schedule or view it as a chance to re-establish themselves among the conference elite. It's unlikely that the conference was sitting there trying to figure out the best way to screw over any programs, but when you have only so many variables to work with some programs are simply going to get it worse than others, and if you're a conference that has theoretically four legitimate teams that might be able to compete for the playoff, you'll probably favor those schools. I doubt favoring Alabama, Georgia, Florida, or LSU was conscious but rather something that occurs in a room where everyone has a stake in the success of the best teams as the NCAA has yet to cancel Division I fall championships.

Basically, this isn't a conspiracy against Tennessee, Arkansas, or Missouri. This is at worst a consequence of scheduling to favor the elite teams in the conference, and more likely is a result of subconscious bias to try and help the conference as a whole by giving the teams with the best chances of bowl games (assuming those even happen) the best chance to make the best bowls possible. In theory, a winning record for the Vols against this schedule validates them as elite and gives them the chance at a higher bowl than 7-3 or 8-2 might normally warrant based on the strength of their wins.

I'm by no means trying to say that the schedule isn't difficult or that there aren't fewer likely wins on the schedule, but I'm arguing that there's a lot to be said for taking the hand dealt and trying to take the pot. On paper, this is the most complete team for the Vols in over a decade on both sides of the ball, so the time has come to step onto the field and prove it, and the loaded schedule gives them opportunities to announce their return in the form of upsets. Sure, an upset of Oklahoma or Florida or Georgia would have still meant plenty, but the Vols now have winnable games against Auburn and Texas A&M on paper, presumably catch Florida early, maybe even week one, and will still have a shot at Georgia. Alabama, at this point, seems like the biggest longshot for an upset, but win the five games the Vols should be expected to win and tack on 2-3 upset wins and who is going to be able to argue that this team hasn't made huge strides under Pruitt?

The bigger issue is whether or not this season will even take place at all, or at least on time. Football is a different beast than the NBA or NHL, and a bubble won't be viable, especially not at the college level. Positive tests will occur, and given the guidelines laid out by the SEC, it may not take too much to force a shift in policy and a postponement or cancellation of the season. The reality is that making college football happen in part requires everyone within their respective states to take this seriously and help keep the numbers down because conditions in the state itself are going to be a factor in keeping the season going. If a state decides that there is a public health emergency that makes football unsafe, the SEC will shut things down, so the best advice I can give is to wear your mask when you're out, don't be out if you don't have to be, and socially distance for the sake of the sports we all want to see happen.

If/when the season takes place, the Vols need to take advantage of the opportunity to pile on some quality wins like they did in 2018 without the slip-ups of early 2019 and prove that they're on the road to returning to prominence in the college football world under Jeremy Pruitt. If they can't do that, 2021 may end up being put up or shut up time for Pruitt, not as an indictment on his tenure thus far but due to the pressures that exist within the SEC overall. I suspect, one way or another, Pruitt gets through the 2022 season, but the odds of sustained success will drop with each passing season of underachieving.

Personally, I think the Vols have a good shot to manage 8-2 if the schedule lines up right and gives them Florida early. Auburn and Texas A&M don't especially scare me. The Aggies are notorious for underachievement and Auburn lost a lot from last season and have always been an up-and-down program that in theory should be heading into a down year. Florida is getting hit with opt-outs right now after already having to do a fair bit of reloading from the draft losses last year. Georgia has a monstrous defense but in spite of the transfers at quarterback have some serious question marks on offense, especially at wide receiver. The Vols gave the Tide fits for much of the game last year until a bad decision flipped the momentum for good, and they will look to try and compete again. There's no reason they shouldn't be able to compete throughout the season, so whining about the schedule, especially when we're going to be lucky to get football at all, is a huge waste of time, from my personal perspective. Anyway, that's just my two cents. Regardless, Go Vols! Here's hoping for the best with having football!