It's no great secret that Tennessee has struggled to run the ball consistently since the departure of Alvin Kamara in 2016. They've been in the bottom three in rushing yards ever since in the SEC, and they haven't been able to run for more than 15 touchdowns in a season since that time. Some of them looked to the offensive line for the answers. Others think it's the running backs. Still more eyeball the coaching as the problem. None of them are necessarily the complete answer, but they are all part of the issue ailing the Volunteers right now.
The offensive line in Knoxville is just finally beginning to get its feet under it in 2019, but despite what some would like to think those 2015 and 2016 offensive lines weren't overpowering juggernauts either. Tennessee was blessed with a spectacular athlete at quarterback as well as a nice stable of running backs that made the offensive line look good even when they weren't playing that way. Josh Dobbs, Alvin Kamara, John Kelly, and Jalen Hurd were simply excellent runners out of the backfield, so they could create even when things broke down with the blocking. Things haven't gotten as bad as they were in 2011 (although you'd probably have to try to get back to that level of rushing incompetence), but they are certainly as lean as they've been since that point. In the last two seasons, it was easier to point the finger at the offensive line and say they were the problem, but a significant reduction in the tackles for loss allowed makes this issue a bit foggier. The running backs aren't taking as many hits in the backfield, yet the numbers haven't shown any significant improvement, and when it comes to touchdowns they've gotten worse.
At running back, there's a distinct difference in the group from last season: there are no bigger guys in the mix. Jeremy Banks and Madre London helped do some of the heavy lifting last season, combining for 391 yards and 6 touchdowns. Other than those two, the rest of the team only accounted for 9 rushing touchdowns. Both over 210 pounds at 6-1, none of the current Vols are anywhere close to that. With no power element in the running game, the backs are much more prone to being tackled easily between the tackles. Additionally, they have a habit of ad-libbing and going off-script, refusing to trust the holes that are there or hoping to break longer runs. While the Vols have tried to find a power element in former high school running back and current linebacker Quavaris Crouch, the results have been underwhelming at best and it hasn't been turned to as a reliable option by the staff. Ty Chandler has averaged 5 yards per carry in his three years and Tim Jordan has averaged 4, so don't think these are bad backs. Also, sacks are rolled into rushing totals, and the 77 sacks allowed so far in three years is 77 negative yardage plays going against the rushing totals on top of the non-sack tackles for loss.
How about coaching? Well, we're on the third running back coach in three years, so considering neither Chandler nor Jordan has had the same running back coach for more than a year, I'll let you toss out a guess as to why that may not be conducive to consistent improvement. Robert Gillespie is a talented running back coach who got stuck in the nightmarish 2017 season. He landed on his feet at UNC and remained the running back coach there even through staff turnover. Meanwhile, Tennessee turned to former Heisman winner Chris Weinke to coach their running backs, a role he hadn't ever filled before. He's now the quarterback coach, so I'll let you draw your own conclusions on how well that experiment went over. Now, the current running back coach is David Johnson, who was initially hired to coach the wide receivers before the staff shuffling moved him back to the running back position, which he last coached at Tulane when he was in charge of both the running backs and tight ends, which was the job that launched him into his high level of successes with wide receivers at Memphis. The jury is still out on things this season because it's probably necessary to see him handle the position when there's finally a bigger back or two in the mix to provide some balance, especially since Ty Chandler is on pace for his most productive rushing season as a Vol and Tim Jordan is really only seeing a dip in his production due to a lack of use early in the season when the coaches were feeding true freshman Eric Gray.
"Why can't we run the ball?"
Yeah, I feel your pain. I really do. The answers lie somewhat in recruiting and transfers and coaching turnover and the blocking. The reality is this isn't going to be some easy fix. You need more balance in the backfield. The offensive line needs to continue progressing. A coach needs time to bring in his guys and develop them. The guys in place need time to learn an offense and from a coach so they aren't having to relearn every offseason. These are all things that can be taken care of. Just a matter of patience and putting in the work now.
Saturday, November 16, 2019
Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Jeremy Pruitt, Derrick Ansley, and the Resurgence of the Tennessee Defense
Welcome back, Orange Swarm. We missed you. Now, you might think I'm being a bit too effusive in my praise here, but hear me out because Tennessee is genuinely on the road to being the type of defense that ruins days in the SEC week in and week out. The eye test is obvious, right? I don't need to explain to you what your eyes are seeing. Instead, I'll dive into the numbers.
Let's begin with scoring defense, where the Vols are currently on pace for their best season in points per game allowed since 2015 when they held opponents to 20 points per outing. This season, they are holding foes to just 23 points a game despite giving up 29+ in five games this season. That's because in the other five, they haven't allowed more than 21 points and have allowed an average of 10.2 in their wins compared to 35.8 in their losses. The early season struggles against Georgia State and BYU can be attributed at least in part to youth, although the new defensive coordinator likely also caused some of those early growing pains. Now, it's true that Tennessee is only 9th in the SEC in scoring defense right now, but they are 41st nationally, so they are in the top third of the country in scoring defense, which is a testament to just how good the SEC is at defense.
Total defense is even crazier for the Vols right now. They are on the road to their best season in total defense since 2011 when they held opponents to just 340.5 yards per game. This season, 348.6 yards per outing is all opponents are able to muster. That's currently good for 8th in the SEC and 37th nationally. They are also 8th in the SEC in yards per play allowed at 5.2, which is tied for 39th nationally. That's the fewest yards per play allowed by the Vols since 2009.
When it comes to rushing defense, the Vols aren't quite as strong, but they are showing a slight improvement over last season (in spite of Kentucky going nuts) and are having their best season against the run since 2015. The yards per game number is fine, good for 10th in the SEC and 61st nationally, so very middle of the pack. However, Tennessee is only allowing 3.9 yards per carry, which is good for 50th nationally and 9th in the SEC. The 39.5 attempts per game they've faced is the second-most in the SEC and among the highest totals in the nation in attempts per game, so the Vols have had to hold opponents to that lower yards per carry average as teams are a bit hesitant to turn to the pass against Tennessee.
Now, why wouldn't teams want to pass against the Vols? Well, they are 6th in the SEC in pass defense and 28th nationally. They've tied with Auburn for 5th in the SEC in fewest passing touchdowns allowed, which is good for a tie for 25th in the nation. They are also tied for 2nd nationally in interceptions and tied for the lead in the SEC. Now, it's not all good news as the Vols are 9th in the SEC in yards per attempt allowed, 9th in completion percentage, and 8th in opponent quarterback rating, but even so the Vols have done more than enough to make opponents think twice about dropping back to pass.
The Vols are currently averaging 2.5 sacks per game, with 25 total, good for 3rd in the SEC and tied for 29th nationally. Their sack per game average is 5th in the SEC and 41st nationally. The Vols haven't had a pass rush like this since 2014 when Derek Barnett and Curt Maggit combined for 21 sacks on their own. Tennessee isn't quite that limited in the pass rush this season as 8 players have multiple sacks this season and 12 have recorded at least one.
The Vols have seen a drop-off this season in tackles for loss. That is very much a factor of those early-season struggles and an inexperienced group on the defensive line. Now, that said, their 51 tackles for loss is still currently good for 8th in the SEC (however, their 5.1 TFLs per game is just 11th in the SEC). The main issue is those first five games, where they had just 21 tackles for loss compared to the 30 they've racked up in the last five games. If the Vols can continue to be productive in making negative plays in the next two games (certainly possible as Vanderbilt and Missouri are among the SEC's worst at giving up tackles for loss), they might be able to finish with 63-65 tackles for loss, which would put them pretty close to last season's numbers.
When it comes to the secondary, the Vols have seen enormous improvements in this area. The Vols currently have their highest interception total since 2014, and at their current pace they could finish better than that. In fact, with a bowl game at this pace, they may well match 2010's 18 interceptions, the best total the Vols have had in the last decade. The Vols currently have 45 passes defended, tied for 5th in the SEC and 32nd nationally. They are tied with Clemson in passes defended per game nationally at 52nd and 11th in the SEC, but part of this is a factor of the Vols seeing the third-fewest passing attempts per game in the SEC and 23rd fewest nationally, so there will be correspondingly fewer opportunities to break up passes.
Forcing fumbles and recovering them hasn't been a particular strong suit of the Vol defense this season, but you'd rather get guys to the ground than give up extra yards to a runner trying to knock the ball loose. They've forced the second-fewest fumbles in the SEC and are tied with five other teams for the fewest recovered in the SEC.
What about blocking kicks, which is generally attributed to the defense? Well, they are tied for the SEC lead with Texas A&M and Alabama at 3 blocks, two of which turned into touchdowns and one which helped decide the Kentucky game yesterday by taking a game-tying field goal off the table for the Wildcats late. The Vols are tied for 8th nationally in blocked kicks as well.
Now, everything I've said so far is all well and good, but let's get into the nitty-gritty, right? Tennessee hasn't been great at getting off the field on third down, unfortunately, allowing opponents to convert on 42 percent of their attempts, 13th worst in the SEC and an abysmal 89th nationally. Tennessee has improved on this over the last three games, but not nearly as much as you'd like to see.
The news on fourth down conversions is better, as they have held opponents to converting just shy of 41%, good for 7th in the SEC and 26th nationally. Again, this is an area where the Vols began roughly on the season before turning things around.
In the red zone...well, let's play a game of good news, bad news. The good news is that opponents have only converted on 78.38% of their red zone trips, which is 6th in the SEC and 31st nationally. Bad news is that when the opponent has scored, it's almost always been a touchdown. 23 of 29 scoring trips in the red zone for opponents have been touchdowns, and the 23 red zone touchdowns allowed is 11th in the SEC and tied for 87th nationally. The Vols have killed themselves at times defending the red zone with dumb penalties.
That's all well and good, but how well is Tennessee doing at preventing the big play? Not so great when it comes to giving up plays of 10-19 yards where they are 11th in the SEC, but it gets a whole lot better after that. They are at least tied for 2nd or 1st in every other category from 20+ on this season. That is a big improvement on last season where the Vols were much easier to gash for big plays.
Tennessee isn't necessarily giving everyone fits yet, but they certainly appear to be on their way back and they are taking the fast lane there. The best news for Vol fans has to be the fact that they only lose three seniors from this defense, and they will get back redshirt senior to be Emmit Gooden after his season-ending injury and might also get back Baylen Buchanan if he can recover from a condition resulting in a narrowing of his spine. Darrell Taylor, Daniel Bituli, and Nigel Warrior won't be easy players to replace, but the Vols are recruiting well on defense and have a number of pieces already on the roster to build on this strong 2019 performance.
The real question is what brought us here? Why the strong improvement in 2019? Well, a couple of things happened. The Vols saw the departure of both of their secondary coaches and replaced them with their new defensive coordinator, Derrick Ansley. Ansley had just finished up his first NFL season coaching the Oakland secondary, but his history with Jeremy Pruitt and his first shot as a coordinator where simply too much to pass up. Pruitt and Ansley fully understand what the other is looking to accomplish.
In 2018, the Vols had a true co-coordinator situation in place with inside linebacker coach Kevin Sherrer and outside linebacker coach Chris Rumph sharing those duties, but with the hire of Ansley, there was a shuffling that took place. Sherrer lost his defensive coordinator duties and took over the job of coordinating the special teams (which he's done a masterful job with, but that's for another day) and Rumph, although still listed as a co-coordinator, really became that in name more than in practice as he has heavy involvement in the game planning during the week but no playcalling participation. Ansley is the playcaller and defensive coordinator, and he serves as an extension of Jeremy Pruitt's will. Now, you have two great defensive coordinators and a collection of successful defensive coaches guiding this team and improving their individual units every step of the way.
Let's begin with scoring defense, where the Vols are currently on pace for their best season in points per game allowed since 2015 when they held opponents to 20 points per outing. This season, they are holding foes to just 23 points a game despite giving up 29+ in five games this season. That's because in the other five, they haven't allowed more than 21 points and have allowed an average of 10.2 in their wins compared to 35.8 in their losses. The early season struggles against Georgia State and BYU can be attributed at least in part to youth, although the new defensive coordinator likely also caused some of those early growing pains. Now, it's true that Tennessee is only 9th in the SEC in scoring defense right now, but they are 41st nationally, so they are in the top third of the country in scoring defense, which is a testament to just how good the SEC is at defense.
Total defense is even crazier for the Vols right now. They are on the road to their best season in total defense since 2011 when they held opponents to just 340.5 yards per game. This season, 348.6 yards per outing is all opponents are able to muster. That's currently good for 8th in the SEC and 37th nationally. They are also 8th in the SEC in yards per play allowed at 5.2, which is tied for 39th nationally. That's the fewest yards per play allowed by the Vols since 2009.
When it comes to rushing defense, the Vols aren't quite as strong, but they are showing a slight improvement over last season (in spite of Kentucky going nuts) and are having their best season against the run since 2015. The yards per game number is fine, good for 10th in the SEC and 61st nationally, so very middle of the pack. However, Tennessee is only allowing 3.9 yards per carry, which is good for 50th nationally and 9th in the SEC. The 39.5 attempts per game they've faced is the second-most in the SEC and among the highest totals in the nation in attempts per game, so the Vols have had to hold opponents to that lower yards per carry average as teams are a bit hesitant to turn to the pass against Tennessee.
Now, why wouldn't teams want to pass against the Vols? Well, they are 6th in the SEC in pass defense and 28th nationally. They've tied with Auburn for 5th in the SEC in fewest passing touchdowns allowed, which is good for a tie for 25th in the nation. They are also tied for 2nd nationally in interceptions and tied for the lead in the SEC. Now, it's not all good news as the Vols are 9th in the SEC in yards per attempt allowed, 9th in completion percentage, and 8th in opponent quarterback rating, but even so the Vols have done more than enough to make opponents think twice about dropping back to pass.
The Vols are currently averaging 2.5 sacks per game, with 25 total, good for 3rd in the SEC and tied for 29th nationally. Their sack per game average is 5th in the SEC and 41st nationally. The Vols haven't had a pass rush like this since 2014 when Derek Barnett and Curt Maggit combined for 21 sacks on their own. Tennessee isn't quite that limited in the pass rush this season as 8 players have multiple sacks this season and 12 have recorded at least one.
The Vols have seen a drop-off this season in tackles for loss. That is very much a factor of those early-season struggles and an inexperienced group on the defensive line. Now, that said, their 51 tackles for loss is still currently good for 8th in the SEC (however, their 5.1 TFLs per game is just 11th in the SEC). The main issue is those first five games, where they had just 21 tackles for loss compared to the 30 they've racked up in the last five games. If the Vols can continue to be productive in making negative plays in the next two games (certainly possible as Vanderbilt and Missouri are among the SEC's worst at giving up tackles for loss), they might be able to finish with 63-65 tackles for loss, which would put them pretty close to last season's numbers.
When it comes to the secondary, the Vols have seen enormous improvements in this area. The Vols currently have their highest interception total since 2014, and at their current pace they could finish better than that. In fact, with a bowl game at this pace, they may well match 2010's 18 interceptions, the best total the Vols have had in the last decade. The Vols currently have 45 passes defended, tied for 5th in the SEC and 32nd nationally. They are tied with Clemson in passes defended per game nationally at 52nd and 11th in the SEC, but part of this is a factor of the Vols seeing the third-fewest passing attempts per game in the SEC and 23rd fewest nationally, so there will be correspondingly fewer opportunities to break up passes.
Forcing fumbles and recovering them hasn't been a particular strong suit of the Vol defense this season, but you'd rather get guys to the ground than give up extra yards to a runner trying to knock the ball loose. They've forced the second-fewest fumbles in the SEC and are tied with five other teams for the fewest recovered in the SEC.
What about blocking kicks, which is generally attributed to the defense? Well, they are tied for the SEC lead with Texas A&M and Alabama at 3 blocks, two of which turned into touchdowns and one which helped decide the Kentucky game yesterday by taking a game-tying field goal off the table for the Wildcats late. The Vols are tied for 8th nationally in blocked kicks as well.
Now, everything I've said so far is all well and good, but let's get into the nitty-gritty, right? Tennessee hasn't been great at getting off the field on third down, unfortunately, allowing opponents to convert on 42 percent of their attempts, 13th worst in the SEC and an abysmal 89th nationally. Tennessee has improved on this over the last three games, but not nearly as much as you'd like to see.
The news on fourth down conversions is better, as they have held opponents to converting just shy of 41%, good for 7th in the SEC and 26th nationally. Again, this is an area where the Vols began roughly on the season before turning things around.
In the red zone...well, let's play a game of good news, bad news. The good news is that opponents have only converted on 78.38% of their red zone trips, which is 6th in the SEC and 31st nationally. Bad news is that when the opponent has scored, it's almost always been a touchdown. 23 of 29 scoring trips in the red zone for opponents have been touchdowns, and the 23 red zone touchdowns allowed is 11th in the SEC and tied for 87th nationally. The Vols have killed themselves at times defending the red zone with dumb penalties.
That's all well and good, but how well is Tennessee doing at preventing the big play? Not so great when it comes to giving up plays of 10-19 yards where they are 11th in the SEC, but it gets a whole lot better after that. They are at least tied for 2nd or 1st in every other category from 20+ on this season. That is a big improvement on last season where the Vols were much easier to gash for big plays.
Tennessee isn't necessarily giving everyone fits yet, but they certainly appear to be on their way back and they are taking the fast lane there. The best news for Vol fans has to be the fact that they only lose three seniors from this defense, and they will get back redshirt senior to be Emmit Gooden after his season-ending injury and might also get back Baylen Buchanan if he can recover from a condition resulting in a narrowing of his spine. Darrell Taylor, Daniel Bituli, and Nigel Warrior won't be easy players to replace, but the Vols are recruiting well on defense and have a number of pieces already on the roster to build on this strong 2019 performance.
The real question is what brought us here? Why the strong improvement in 2019? Well, a couple of things happened. The Vols saw the departure of both of their secondary coaches and replaced them with their new defensive coordinator, Derrick Ansley. Ansley had just finished up his first NFL season coaching the Oakland secondary, but his history with Jeremy Pruitt and his first shot as a coordinator where simply too much to pass up. Pruitt and Ansley fully understand what the other is looking to accomplish.
In 2018, the Vols had a true co-coordinator situation in place with inside linebacker coach Kevin Sherrer and outside linebacker coach Chris Rumph sharing those duties, but with the hire of Ansley, there was a shuffling that took place. Sherrer lost his defensive coordinator duties and took over the job of coordinating the special teams (which he's done a masterful job with, but that's for another day) and Rumph, although still listed as a co-coordinator, really became that in name more than in practice as he has heavy involvement in the game planning during the week but no playcalling participation. Ansley is the playcaller and defensive coordinator, and he serves as an extension of Jeremy Pruitt's will. Now, you have two great defensive coordinators and a collection of successful defensive coaches guiding this team and improving their individual units every step of the way.
Sunday, November 10, 2019
My Two Cents on Jarrett Guarantano
Yeah, this is going to be new. It's also going to be much more casual than the normal fare from me. Consider this a conversation of sorts. These are going to be opinion pieces, and sometimes I'll be calling out fans or players or coaches. Other times, I'll be pouring out praise. Maybe I'll be lamenting the NCAA or the rules or the refs. Maybe I'll be shouting "hallelujah!" about something. It's all about what strikes me at that moment.
For those of you who don't like Guaratano, cool. I don't need you to and I don't even want you to. That's your business. For those that like or at least respect him, also totally cool. Same deal. Feel the way you want to feel. I'm going to tell you what I think of the young man, and then I'm going to talk about reasons to tone things down a bit, with maybe just a sprinkling of statistical facts scattered throughout.
Jarrett Guarantano is an average to below-average quarterback with flashes of being above-average at times. He will periodically make a play that absolutely hurts your head trying to make sense of what he was thinking, but then he'll have games where he's throwing deep passes and finding his receivers and the defense can't stop him like he did with South Carolina, UTC, and Mississippi State. More often than not, you get the guy we saw play against UAB, Georgia State, and BYU who makes good and bad plays and doesn't win you the game but doesn't necessarily lose it for you either. He's just there and plays well enough to let you compete.
This is one of the toughest SOBs playing right now, at least physically. Opinions certainly vary on his mental makeup as far as toughness goes, either because of his body language at times or his seeming disinterest in past games when he wasn't playing, but physically, few players can take the abuse he has and keep on getting up and taking more. As for my take on his mental toughness, this is a young man who has received more than his fair share of abuse from fans as well as tough coaching, and rather than taking to the transfer portal and finding greener pastures, he's toughed it out and endured the criticism and, from some of the less pleasant members of the fan base, outright personal attacks.
How about production though? Well, Jarrett Guarantano has produced 1,402 passing yards on 62.1% completions for 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He's tied for 6th in the SEC in touchdowns and 7th in the SEC in completion percentage. He's also 9th in the conference in passing yards despite having lost some playing time to the two freshmen for the Vols, Brian Maurer and JT Shrout. How about those freshmen? Well, they've combined for 703 passing yards on 48% completions for 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. On the ground, all three have produced positive yardage rushing, with Maurer running for 48 yards and 2 touchdowns, Guarantano running for 31 yards, and Shrout running for 4 yards.
Now, this will be a bit speculative, but what if Guarantano had started all season? What if we take his stats right now but expand on those to estimate what he might have done without the lost snaps? For the purposes of this, I'll limit this to the 268 passing attempts that the Vols have had thus far and just apply his completion percentage, yards per completion/attempt, and touchdowns per attempt numbers. That gives us 167 completions for 2,224 yards and 21 touchdowns. Hard to say whether or not he could have actually put up those numbers, but at 8.3 yards per completion and a touchdown for every 13 attempts, this is where we land.
More than anything, what Guarantano has done for the Vols over the last six games has been providing a steadying veteran presence amid the storms. Maurer may bring energy, but Guarantano off the bench has been able to focus that energy. That, as well as the defensive play, has been the key to the turnaround. Maurer was able to infuse new energy, but now Guarantano is the ringleader of this offense. More than at any point last year, he's making plays, not just managing the show. He's fourth in the SEC in quarterback rating. A year ago he was 8th despite playing significantly more.
None of this wipes away his mistakes. The bizarre decision on the goal line at Alabama, some early season poor passing decisions, and some poor body language at times all still happened. However, he has rebounded and come back as the best version of himself he has been in his four years in Knoxville. In a just world, we would have gotten a chance to see who Jarrett Guarantano might have become under more stable circumstances, but whether or not he returns next season one thing has become abundantly clear: he will be the quarterback who bridged the switch from Butch Jones to Jeremy Pruitt and the man who steered the offensive ship as Tennessee finally turned the corner under Pruitt.
To summarize: Guarantano has put up with a lot of crap, some warranted and some not. However, he's come through it stronger and the last few weeks is playing the best football of his career in Knoxville. Love him. Hate him. Fall somewhere in between. He doesn't seem to be a young man who cares much either way because he's just going to take the field and give his all for Tennessee.
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