Saturday, November 16, 2019

"Where's the Run Game?"

It's no great secret that Tennessee has struggled to run the ball consistently since the departure of Alvin Kamara in 2016. They've been in the bottom three in rushing yards ever since in the SEC, and they haven't been able to run for more than 15 touchdowns in a season since that time. Some of them looked to the offensive line for the answers. Others think it's the running backs. Still more eyeball the coaching as the problem. None of them are necessarily the complete answer, but they are all part of the issue ailing the Volunteers right now.

The offensive line in Knoxville is just finally beginning to get its feet under it in 2019, but despite what some would like to think those 2015 and 2016 offensive lines weren't overpowering juggernauts either. Tennessee was blessed with a spectacular athlete at quarterback as well as a nice stable of running backs that made the offensive line look good even when they weren't playing that way. Josh Dobbs, Alvin Kamara, John Kelly, and Jalen Hurd were simply excellent runners out of the backfield, so they could create even when things broke down with the blocking. Things haven't gotten as bad as they were in 2011 (although you'd probably have to try to get back to that level of rushing incompetence), but they are certainly as lean as they've been since that point. In the last two seasons, it was easier to point the finger at the offensive line and say they were the problem, but a significant reduction in the tackles for loss allowed makes this issue a bit foggier. The running backs aren't taking as many hits in the backfield, yet the numbers haven't shown any significant improvement, and when it comes to touchdowns they've gotten worse.

At running back, there's a distinct difference in the group from last season: there are no bigger guys in the mix. Jeremy Banks and Madre London helped do some of the heavy lifting last season, combining for 391 yards and 6 touchdowns. Other than those two, the rest of the team only accounted for 9 rushing touchdowns. Both over 210 pounds at 6-1, none of the current Vols are anywhere close to that. With no power element in the running game, the backs are much more prone to being tackled easily between the tackles. Additionally, they have a habit of ad-libbing and going off-script, refusing to trust the holes that are there or hoping to break longer runs. While the Vols have tried to find a power element in former high school running back and current linebacker Quavaris Crouch, the results have been underwhelming at best and it hasn't been turned to as a reliable option by the staff. Ty Chandler has averaged 5 yards per carry in his three years and Tim Jordan has averaged 4, so don't think these are bad backs. Also, sacks are rolled into rushing totals, and the 77 sacks allowed so far in three years is 77 negative yardage plays going against the rushing totals on top of the non-sack tackles for loss.

How about coaching? Well, we're on the third running back coach in three years, so considering neither Chandler nor Jordan has had the same running back coach for more than a year, I'll let you toss out a guess as to why that may not be conducive to consistent improvement. Robert Gillespie is a talented running back coach who got stuck in the nightmarish 2017 season. He landed on his feet at UNC and remained the running back coach there even through staff turnover. Meanwhile, Tennessee turned to former Heisman winner Chris Weinke to coach their running backs, a role he hadn't ever filled before. He's now the quarterback coach, so I'll let you draw your own conclusions on how well that experiment went over. Now, the current running back coach is David Johnson, who was initially hired to coach the wide receivers before the staff shuffling moved him back to the running back position, which he last coached at Tulane when he was in charge of both the running backs and tight ends, which was the job that launched him into his high level of successes with wide receivers at Memphis. The jury is still out on things this season because it's probably necessary to see him handle the position when there's finally a bigger back or two in the mix to provide some balance, especially since Ty Chandler is on pace for his most productive rushing season as a Vol and Tim Jordan is really only seeing a dip in his production due to a lack of use early in the season when the coaches were feeding true freshman Eric Gray.

"Why can't we run the ball?"

Yeah, I feel your pain. I really do. The answers lie somewhat in recruiting and transfers and coaching turnover and the blocking. The reality is this isn't going to be some easy fix. You need more balance in the backfield. The offensive line needs to continue progressing. A coach needs time to bring in his guys and develop them. The guys in place need time to learn an offense and from a coach so they aren't having to relearn every offseason. These are all things that can be taken care of. Just a matter of patience and putting in the work now.

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Jeremy Pruitt, Derrick Ansley, and the Resurgence of the Tennessee Defense

Welcome back, Orange Swarm. We missed you. Now, you might think I'm being a bit too effusive in my praise here, but hear me out because Tennessee is genuinely on the road to being the type of defense that ruins days in the SEC week in and week out. The eye test is obvious, right? I don't need to explain to you what your eyes are seeing. Instead, I'll dive into the numbers.

Let's begin with scoring defense, where the Vols are currently on pace for their best season in points per game allowed since 2015 when they held opponents to 20 points per outing. This season, they are holding foes to just 23 points a game despite giving up 29+ in five games this season. That's because in the other five, they haven't allowed more than 21 points and have allowed an average of 10.2 in their wins compared to 35.8 in their losses. The early season struggles against Georgia State and BYU can be attributed at least in part to youth, although the new defensive coordinator likely also caused some of those early growing pains. Now, it's true that Tennessee is only 9th in the SEC in scoring defense right now, but they are 41st nationally, so they are in the top third of the country in scoring defense, which is a testament to just how good the SEC is at defense.

Total defense is even crazier for the Vols right now. They are on the road to their best season in total defense since 2011 when they held opponents to just 340.5 yards per game. This season, 348.6 yards per outing is all opponents are able to muster. That's currently good for 8th in the SEC and 37th nationally. They are also 8th in the SEC in yards per play allowed at 5.2, which is tied for 39th nationally. That's the fewest yards per play allowed by the Vols since 2009.

When it comes to rushing defense, the Vols aren't quite as strong, but they are showing a slight improvement over last season (in spite of Kentucky going nuts) and are having their best season against the run since 2015. The yards per game number is fine, good for 10th in the SEC and 61st nationally, so very middle of the pack. However, Tennessee is only allowing 3.9 yards per carry, which is good for 50th nationally and 9th in the SEC. The 39.5 attempts per game they've faced is the second-most in the SEC and among the highest totals in the nation in attempts per game, so the Vols have had to hold opponents to that lower yards per carry average as teams are a bit hesitant to turn to the pass against Tennessee.

Now, why wouldn't teams want to pass against the Vols? Well, they are 6th in the SEC in pass defense and 28th nationally. They've tied with Auburn for 5th in the SEC in fewest passing touchdowns allowed, which is good for a tie for 25th in the nation. They are also tied for 2nd nationally in interceptions and tied for the lead in the SEC. Now, it's not all good news as the Vols are 9th in the SEC in yards per attempt allowed, 9th in completion percentage, and 8th in opponent quarterback rating, but even so the Vols have done more than enough to make opponents think twice about dropping back to pass.

The Vols are currently averaging 2.5 sacks per game, with 25 total, good for 3rd in the SEC and tied for 29th nationally. Their sack per game average is 5th in the SEC and 41st nationally. The Vols haven't had a pass rush like this since 2014 when Derek Barnett and Curt Maggit combined for 21 sacks on their own. Tennessee isn't quite that limited in the pass rush this season as 8 players have multiple sacks this season and 12 have recorded at least one.

The Vols have seen a drop-off this season in tackles for loss. That is very much a factor of those early-season struggles and an inexperienced group on the defensive line. Now, that said, their 51 tackles for loss is still currently good for 8th in the SEC (however, their 5.1 TFLs per game is just 11th in the SEC). The main issue is those first five games, where they had just 21 tackles for loss compared to the 30 they've racked up in the last five games. If the Vols can continue to be productive in making negative plays in the next two games (certainly possible as Vanderbilt and Missouri are among the SEC's worst at giving up tackles for loss), they might be able to finish with 63-65 tackles for loss, which would put them pretty close to last season's numbers.

When it comes to the secondary, the Vols have seen enormous improvements in this area. The Vols currently have their highest interception total since 2014, and at their current pace they could finish better than that. In fact, with a bowl game at this pace, they may well match 2010's 18 interceptions, the best total the Vols have had in the last decade. The Vols currently have 45 passes defended, tied for 5th in the SEC and 32nd nationally. They are tied with Clemson in passes defended per game nationally at 52nd and 11th in the SEC, but part of this is a factor of the Vols seeing the third-fewest passing attempts per game in the SEC and 23rd fewest nationally, so there will be correspondingly fewer opportunities to break up passes.

Forcing fumbles and recovering them hasn't been a particular strong suit of the Vol defense this season, but you'd rather get guys to the ground than give up extra yards to a runner trying to knock the ball loose. They've forced the second-fewest fumbles in the SEC and are tied with five other teams for the fewest recovered in the SEC.

What about blocking kicks, which is generally attributed to the defense? Well, they are tied for the SEC lead with Texas A&M and Alabama at 3 blocks, two of which turned into touchdowns and one which helped decide the Kentucky game yesterday by taking a game-tying field goal off the table for the Wildcats late. The Vols are tied for 8th nationally in blocked kicks as well.

Now, everything I've said so far is all well and good, but let's get into the nitty-gritty, right? Tennessee hasn't been great at getting off the field on third down, unfortunately, allowing opponents to convert on 42 percent of their attempts, 13th worst in the SEC and an abysmal 89th nationally. Tennessee has improved on this over the last three games, but not nearly as much as you'd like to see.

The news on fourth down conversions is better, as they have held opponents to converting just shy of 41%, good for 7th in the SEC and 26th nationally. Again, this is an area where the Vols began roughly on the season before turning things around.

In the red zone...well, let's play a game of good news, bad news. The good news is that opponents have only converted on 78.38% of their red zone trips, which is 6th in the SEC and 31st nationally. Bad news is that when the opponent has scored, it's almost always been a touchdown. 23 of 29 scoring trips in the red zone for opponents have been touchdowns, and the 23 red zone touchdowns allowed is 11th in the SEC and tied for 87th nationally. The Vols have killed themselves at times defending the red zone with dumb penalties.

That's all well and good, but how well is Tennessee doing at preventing the big play? Not so great when it comes to giving up plays of 10-19 yards where they are 11th in the SEC, but it gets a whole lot better after that. They are at least tied for 2nd or 1st in every other category from 20+ on this season. That is a big improvement on last season where the Vols were much easier to gash for big plays.

Tennessee isn't necessarily giving everyone fits yet, but they certainly appear to be on their way back and they are taking the fast lane there. The best news for Vol fans has to be the fact that they only lose three seniors from this defense, and they will get back redshirt senior to be Emmit Gooden after his season-ending injury and might also get back Baylen Buchanan if he can recover from a condition resulting in a narrowing of his spine. Darrell Taylor, Daniel Bituli, and Nigel Warrior won't be easy players to replace, but the Vols are recruiting well on defense and have a number of pieces already on the roster to build on this strong 2019 performance.

The real question is what brought us here? Why the strong improvement in 2019? Well, a couple of things happened. The Vols saw the departure of both of their secondary coaches and replaced them with their new defensive coordinator, Derrick Ansley. Ansley had just finished up his first NFL season coaching the Oakland secondary, but his history with Jeremy Pruitt and his first shot as a coordinator where simply too much to pass up. Pruitt and Ansley fully understand what the other is looking to accomplish.

In 2018, the Vols had a true co-coordinator situation in place with inside linebacker coach Kevin Sherrer and outside linebacker coach Chris Rumph sharing those duties, but with the hire of Ansley, there was a shuffling that took place. Sherrer lost his defensive coordinator duties and took over the job of coordinating the special teams (which he's done a masterful job with, but that's for another day) and Rumph, although still listed as a co-coordinator, really became that in name more than in practice as he has heavy involvement in the game planning during the week but no playcalling participation. Ansley is the playcaller and defensive coordinator, and he serves as an extension of Jeremy Pruitt's will. Now, you have two great defensive coordinators and a collection of successful defensive coaches guiding this team and improving their individual units every step of the way.

Sunday, November 10, 2019

My Two Cents on Jarrett Guarantano


Yeah, this is going to be new. It's also going to be much more casual than the normal fare from me. Consider this a conversation of sorts. These are going to be opinion pieces, and sometimes I'll be calling out fans or players or coaches. Other times, I'll be pouring out praise. Maybe I'll be lamenting the NCAA or the rules or the refs. Maybe I'll be shouting "hallelujah!" about something. It's all about what strikes me at that moment.

For those of you who don't like Guaratano, cool. I don't need you to and I don't even want you to. That's your business. For those that like or at least respect him, also totally cool. Same deal. Feel the way you want to feel. I'm going to tell you what I think of the young man, and then I'm going to talk about reasons to tone things down a bit, with maybe just a sprinkling of statistical facts scattered throughout.

Jarrett Guarantano is an average to below-average quarterback with flashes of being above-average at times. He will periodically make a play that absolutely hurts your head trying to make sense of what he was thinking, but then he'll have games where he's throwing deep passes and finding his receivers and the defense can't stop him like he did with South Carolina, UTC, and Mississippi State. More often than not, you get the guy we saw play against UAB, Georgia State, and BYU who makes good and bad plays and doesn't win you the game but doesn't necessarily lose it for you either. He's just there and plays well enough to let you compete.

This is one of the toughest SOBs playing right now, at least physically. Opinions certainly vary on his mental makeup as far as toughness goes, either because of his body language at times or his seeming disinterest in past games when he wasn't playing, but physically, few players can take the abuse he has and keep on getting up and taking more. As for my take on his mental toughness, this is a young man who has received more than his fair share of abuse from fans as well as tough coaching, and rather than taking to the transfer portal and finding greener pastures, he's toughed it out and endured the criticism and, from some of the less pleasant members of the fan base, outright personal attacks.

How about production though? Well, Jarrett Guarantano has produced 1,402 passing yards on 62.1% completions for 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He's tied for 6th in the SEC in touchdowns and 7th in the SEC in completion percentage. He's also 9th in the conference in passing yards despite having lost some playing time to the two freshmen for the Vols, Brian Maurer and JT Shrout. How about those freshmen? Well, they've combined for 703 passing yards on 48% completions for 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. On the ground, all three have produced positive yardage rushing, with Maurer running for 48 yards and 2 touchdowns, Guarantano running for 31 yards, and Shrout running for 4 yards.

Now, this will be a bit speculative, but what if Guarantano had started all season? What if we take his stats right now but expand on those to estimate what he might have done without the lost snaps? For the purposes of this, I'll limit this to the 268 passing attempts that the Vols have had thus far and just apply his completion percentage, yards per completion/attempt, and touchdowns per attempt numbers. That gives us 167 completions for 2,224 yards and 21 touchdowns. Hard to say whether or not he could have actually put up those numbers, but at 8.3 yards per completion and a touchdown for every 13 attempts, this is where we land.

More than anything, what Guarantano has done for the Vols over the last six games has been providing a steadying veteran presence amid the storms. Maurer may bring energy, but Guarantano off the bench has been able to focus that energy. That, as well as the defensive play, has been the key to the turnaround. Maurer was able to infuse new energy, but now Guarantano is the ringleader of this offense. More than at any point last year, he's making plays, not just managing the show. He's fourth in the SEC in quarterback rating. A year ago he was 8th despite playing significantly more.

None of this wipes away his mistakes. The bizarre decision on the goal line at Alabama, some early season poor passing decisions, and some poor body language at times all still happened. However, he has rebounded and come back as the best version of himself he has been in his four years in Knoxville. In a just world, we would have gotten a chance to see who Jarrett Guarantano might have become under more stable circumstances, but whether or not he returns next season one thing has become abundantly clear: he will be the quarterback who bridged the switch from Butch Jones to Jeremy Pruitt and the man who steered the offensive ship as Tennessee finally turned the corner under Pruitt.

To summarize: Guarantano has put up with a lot of crap, some warranted and some not. However, he's come through it stronger and the last few weeks is playing the best football of his career in Knoxville. Love him. Hate him. Fall somewhere in between. He doesn't seem to be a young man who cares much either way because he's just going to take the field and give his all for Tennessee.

Saturday, October 12, 2019

What to Make of Tennessee Through Six Games

Through six games, it's been mostly bad news where the record is concerned, but what about statistically? Well, there are areas of obvious improvement, areas of obvious regression, and probably a lot more in common with the first six games of last season than most would think. Tennessee's defense is pretty much on par with their defense from last season through six games and given they held two early-season opponents to under 200 yards of total offense, that means that the defense isn't getting beaten as badly against better opponents. The Vols gave up 422.5 yards per game to Auburn, Florida, West Virginia, and Georgia through six in 2018 while allowing just 164 per game to UTEP and ETSU. This season, Florida and Georgia did pile up the yards to the tune of 483.5 yards per game, but the other four games the Vols gave up just 296.25 per game. As far as averages go, the difference through six games in yards per game allowed is just 0.2 yards per game. The defense has just two fewer tackles for loss than last season, three more sacks, and double the turnovers through six games as opposed to last season. Long story made short, the defense is pretty much on par with last season's defense or better in some areas.

That must mean the issue is the offense, right? Yes and no. The offense is averaging 3.7 fewer points per game through six games and 8.8 fewer yards per game, but the yardage difference isn't statistically significant. The points are, and there is a direct correlation to explain the why behind it. It's turnovers. Tennessee had three turnovers through six games last season. This season, they've had 12. While Tennessee has forced more turnovers, they essentially have broken even in turnover margin this year compared to a 2:1 turnover margin through six last year. The offensive line is allowing fewer tackles for loss and pretty much the same number of sacks through six games, so the bottom line is these turnovers fall on the quarterbacks and skill position players. Now, the quarterbacks do have three more touchdowns so far this season compared to last season, but the running backs have six fewer touchdowns on the year. The inability of the running backs to punch it into the end zone is yet another factor in the downfall of the offense this season. Yardage is great, but it means nothing if you aren't scoring. If not for Brent Cimaglia having a strong start to his season, the Vols would be scoring significantly fewer points per game.

So what does all this mean? Nothing. Not a thing. For their current season averages, the Vols are better than last year. How can that be though, right? Well, the answer is quite simple. Tennessee won one more game in 2018 and essentially collapsed down the stretch. Meanwhile, Tennessee this season has been steadily improving and, as a young team, should continue to improve. If they do so, there's no reason for them to collapse. While South Carolina and Missouri should be tough opponents, other than Alabama there's no reason to think Tennessee can't win five of the six remaining games with continued improvement and decent health.

Today against Mississippi State, we saw the best Tennessee defense we've seen in quite some time against an SEC foe. The offense, while not necessarily explosive, was able to keep the defense fresh and could have had another six to fourteen points if not for turnovers. The scoreboard doesn't entirely tell the tale for how soundly Tennessee manhandled Mississippi State.

Let's consider the remainder of the schedule:

Alabama: I'm not going to spend much time here. Alabama might not be as good defensively as the past few seasons, but they are an offensive juggernaut. They are beating opponents 51-17 and SEC opponents 51-27.3 per game. Tennessee should consider it a good day if they keep the game within 21 points because only one team has managed to do that all season.

South Carolina: I don't know who this Gamecocks squad is yet. Are they the team who lost to Missouri 34-14 or the one that beat Georgia 20-17? The Gamecocks are 3-3 and that record reflects how inconsistent they've been. Maybe the Florida game clears things up. Probably not though. Your guess is as good as mine as to how this game goes.

UAB: The Blazers are 4-1 and should be 5-1 by the end of the day today. Good for them. They haven't played anyone of consequence. Tennessee should be too much for them as long as the Vols show up to play.

Kentucky: Mississippi State beat Kentucky by 15. The Wildcats are losing 10-0 to Arkansas as I write this. Kentucky may not win an SEC game this season. They simply haven't recovered from the Florida loss, and it seems like everyone has their number now.

Missouri: The Tigers should be 5-1 by the end of the day. They are playing excellent football since week one. Week one did still see them lose to Wyoming and Kelly Bryant is the key to that offense right now. If Bryant is healthy, this one is pretty tough. If he's not, this becomes a very different ball game.

Vanderbilt: On the one hand, you shouldn't sleep on a team that has been beating you like Vanderbilt has. On the other hand, Vanderbilt has been pretty awful and struggled to get their one win over Northern Illinois. They lost to UNLV today in an uncompetitive game. If the Vols lose this one, it might just overtake Georgia State as the worst loss of the season.

A realistic finish right now might be 5-7, but it's not inconceivable the Vols could get to 7-5. It would take a lot of breaks going their way, but this team is getting it figured out now and if they can keep forcing turnovers and negative plays, they can make their own breaks as they finish out the season. The one thing they simply cannot afford to do is fade again. They need to make November theirs again this season and close the year out strong. It's certainly possible they can do just that.

Monday, September 2, 2019

The Recipe for Recovery after GSU

I won't rehash the loss any more than I have to. It was arguably the lowest low for a program that has been discovering new lows with decent frequency for the last decade. The question then becomes one of whether or not the team, not the program but this team, can recover within a week before facing off against a good BYU team. Obviously, I won't tell you that these things will happen, but these are the things that this writer believes needs to happen if this team is going to settle down and bounce back from this devastating loss.

Let's begin with the coaching. You have to decide who your starters are and make sure that those starters are ready to play. There can't be some nonsensical rotation where 10-11 players are considered potential starters and you divide your time and attention between all of them when preparing for a game. When everyone is a starter, you have no starters. You have no depth chart. You have no continuity. That was painfully apparent on Saturday. Based on the newest depth chart released for the BYU game week, they have starters and hopefully they'll stop rotating players so heavily that nobody can find any rhythm or comfort level.

Speaking of rotating, stop doing it to experiment with different looks during a game. That is serving no one. Not the players, not the fans, and not the outcome of the game. Frankly, it made the staff look more than a little silly and left the impression that the staff hadn't prepared this team appropriately because no one had been able to emerge and establish themselves. Heaven forbid you not keep an eye on the roster because it was probably your only hope of knowing who was on the field at the time. Oh, and those too many men on the field issues? Rotate less and that stops being an issue.

You cannot prepare 85 guys equally to play. It's just not realistic. Toss in walk-ons and we're up to 115 and that's spreading yourself miserably thin trying to get a roster ready to play. Identify your starters. They get the most attention. Your second string gets a decent amount of attention, but a little less. Beyond that, you shouldn't need to rely on them much anyway, so coach them but don't spend much time on integrating them into the game planning and game preparation.

No opponent is unimportant. Saying it to the press sounds all well and good, but it's painfully obvious that it was lip service based on what everyone saw last weekend. Until this roster is both mentally and physically at a point where they can walk all over most teams, you are not good enough to overlook an opponent. It will never be said aloud, but that is precisely what happened with GSU. Georgia State was a couple days of prep before turning the attention to BYU. Well, that backfired pretty resoundingly.

Stop pretending like you're playing chess. You aren't going to use every play in your playbook ever, but going so simple as to become predictable is ridiculous. The game plan was garbage. You showed nothing as planned, and it bit you squarely on the keister. If that was the goal, well done. If the goal is to win, find your plays each week regardless of how complex they are in order to best attack the opponent and stop pretending that being basic for a week or two is going to be the key to beating Florida. The key to beating anyone is execution and game planning. Not sitting on plays until you think you can pull out the big surprise to beat someone.

Finally, even if you find yourselves as a staff at a loss as to what to do to motivate the players or get them to execute, you simply cannot reflect that with your body language. In the film Remember the Titans, the line is uttered: "attitude reflects leadership, captain", and that's significantly truer when referring to the coaches. If the team is demoralized and quitting, guess who gets to own that? Don't throw your hands up. Don't shrug your shoulder. Don't drop your head. You are who they are looking to. Be a leader in every sense.

Players, you don't get a pass. Before diving into individual units or singular performances, to the team as a whole: don't you dare quit on your teammates, your coaches, your fans, or your school again, but more than that don't you even think about quitting on yourselves one more time. The fact that many of us would give up years of our lives for one chance to run through that T, take the field in the Orange and White, and give our all for Tennessee just once notwithstanding, you owe yourselves and your teammates more than giving up because it gets hard. Don't drop your head and lay down playing dead for any opponent, least of all this one. The hell with owing it to us fans. You owe it to your brothers on the field and yourselves. Don't give yourselves a reason to look back on these moments with regret, and don't give any NFL staffs a reason to doubt your fire.

 Jarrett Guarantano, you have been much discussed. I'm not here to pile on and suggest you should be benched or blah, blah, blah. I am going to make a couple of statements and then move on. Find your leadership style. Vocal, by actions, whatever that may look like, you need to find it, stick to it, and be the guy that offense rallies around when times get tough. Trust your offensive line. I know that one is tough to do, but you have to trust them so that you can run through your progressions, stop either running or dumping the pass off to your outlet guy because of perceived pressure, etc. The offense can't progress as long as the quarterback is running the show under duress, whether or not the pressure is real. Trust what Chaney has taught you. Change plays and protections accordingly. Don't be afraid to assert that authority given to you by your offensive coordinator and head coach. They've entrusted you with it because they believe in you. Take that to heart. You are the heart of the offense. It will only be as good as you enable it to be.

Running backs: secure the ball. I don't care which running back it is. You cannot put the ball on the ground. The running game has to be reliable enough to keep defenses honest, and that simply cannot happen when the coaches are afraid to put the ball in the hands of their best backs. You also need to trust your blockers. Trust your vision out there. If the hole isn't there, find the gap in the defense or take what's available, but you cannot bail on the running lane just because you don't trust what you're seeing. Secure the ball, whether it's a passing play or a running play. Then worry about yardage. You can't gain an inch without the ball in hand.

Receivers...well...yeah. You were pretty much fine for most of the game. Keep that up. Make sure you keep watching the ball into your hands because there were a couple of missed connections that didn't have to be missed, but all in all, solid day for arguably the best position group. Continue working hard and making plays.

Now, that prior note included Dominick Wood-Anderson, but to the rest of the tight ends, he can't do it alone. Jacob Warren. Sean Brown. Jackson Lowe. One of you guys needs to emerge as an additional passing threat and legitimate blocker because the seven offensive lineman thing is too telegraphed and isn't a sustainable formation to be used. It would be preferable that they can use a similar look with a pair of eligible receivers out there.

Offensive line, you honestly didn't have the worst day for three quarters. Heck, it wasn't even the worst I've seen as a whole because you weren't responsible for some of those sacks. Once you know who the starting five or top eight OLs are though, understand that these are your best friends. They are your brothers and you are inseparably close. Outside of classes and sleep, y'all spend your time together. You work on signals and chemistry and timing until you know what one another is thinking with a glance at each other. The quarterback and the running backs are your younger siblings or nephews or little cousins, you choose. You don't let anyone hurt them, and if someone has the audacity to touch them it's on you to make them pay for it.

To the defensive line, you have to know where to line up, fire off the line, and even if you're wrong, be wrong at full speed. The only cure for inexperience is to line up and play, making mistakes along the way. That said, everyone cannot be listed as a starter and anyone feel comfortable, and a rotation that's so heavy that you can't get into a rhythm isn't helpful. Still, whoever is on the field at the time has to attack like their name is Bobby Boucher. Break faces out there. Make the offensive line regret taking the field.

Inside linebackers, I know it sucks not having Bituli out there to help with getting guys lined up. I know it's all a bit new, especially for you, Henry To'o To'o. It's going to get easier, but until it does you just need to seek and destroy because attacking the offense has never gotten a defender in trouble. Make plays, whether you did your job right or not, until you get the assignments down. Don't overthink it. Football is still just football.

Outside linebackers, you had moments. Bennett, Johnson, both of you got after it and made some plays behind the line of scrimmage. Keep doing that. Taylor, aside from that nice play in coverage you'll need to get going, but we've seen that you have that talent. Until the younger guys get caught up, it's up to you three to provide that OLB pass rush. Things should be freed up once the staff begins rolling out the blitzes and stunts.

Secondary, mixed bag, right? Warren Burrell, you got tossed into a no-win situation due to circumstances off the field. The same more or less happened to you as well, Alontae Taylor, as a three-man rotation was trimmed down to two, more or less. Shawn Shamburger, build on that strong game of yours. Make the Star position your own. Safeties, we need better as a whole. If the corners are probably not going to have a chance to rotate, it's going to be up to you guys to provide them the necessary support when they start getting tired or get beat by the receivers. Support one another. That's how being a team works.

Specialists, I don't really have any notes. Keep up the good work. You all kicked great, the snaps looked crisp, no flubbed holds. Returners, same as I said about the running backs. Secure the ball. Then worry about everything else. If you fumble and lose it, no one will remember the return. Just the turnover.

BYU is solid, but they aren't unbeatable. Winning or losing is all going to fall on execution by the coaches and players. There's no excuse for what happened. There's no reason it should continue happening. There's plenty of talent. There's enough experience on the roster to win games. This staff has set winning expectations at every stop until now. Put up or shut up time. Get it right and beat BYU. It won't forgive everything, but it's a place to start.

Sunday, August 25, 2019

Projected Week One Depth Chart


OFFENSE
  • Quarterback 
    • Jarrett Guarantano, 6-4, 213, RJR
    • J.T. Shrout, 6-3, 213, RFR
  • Running back
    • Ty Chandler, 5-11, 201, JR
    • Tim Jordan, 5-11, 203, JR or Eric Gray, 5-10, 195, FR
  • Wide receiver 1
    • Marquez Callaway, 6-2, 204, SR
    • Brandon Johnson, 6-2, 195, SR
  • Wide receiver 2
    • Jauan Jennings, 6-3, 208, RSR
    • Jordan Murphy, 6-0, 180, JR
  • Wide receiver 3
    • Josh Palmer, 6-2, 195, JR
    • Tyler Byrd, 5-11, 210, SR
  • Tight end
    • Dominick Wood-Anderson, 6-4, 257, SR
    • Jacob Warren, 6-6, 241, RFR or Jackson Lowe, 6-4, 249, FR
  • Left tackle
    • Wanya Morris, 6-4, 313, FR
    • Jahmir Johnson, 6-5, 285, RJR
  • Left guard
    • Jerome Carvin, 6-5, 313, SO
    • Jahmir Johnson, 6-5, 285, RJR
  • Center
    • Brandon Kennedy, 6-3, 301, RSR
    • Ryan Johnson, 6-6, 301, RJR
  • Right guard
    • K'Rojhn Calbert, 6-5, 330, RSO
    • Riley Locklear, 6-4, 286, JR
  • Right tackle
    • Marcus Tatum, 6-6, 316, RJR
    • Darnell Wright, 6-6, 330, FR
DEFENSE
  • Defensive end
    • Darel Middleton, 6-6, 311, JR
    • John Mincey, 6-3, 271, SO
  • Nose guard
    • Greg Emerson, 6-3, 309, RFR
    • Kurott Garland, 6-3, 304, RFR
  • Defensive tackle
    • Savion Williams, 6-4, 304, JR
    • Matthew Butler, 6-4, 285, JR
  • Jack linebacker
    • Deandre Johnson, 6-3, 246, JR
    • Kivon Bennett, 6-2, 248, RSO
  • Will linebacker
    • Henry To'o To'o, 6-2, 232, FR
    • Shanon Reid, 6-0, 224, JR
  • Mike linebacker
    • Daniel Bituli, 6-3, 252, SR or Will Ignont, 6-1, 225
    • J.J. Peterson, 6-2, 233, RFR
  • Sam linebacker
    • Darrell Taylor, 6-4, 255, RSR
    • Quavaris Crouch, 6-1, 246, FR
  • Cornerback 1
    • Alontae Taylor, 6-0, 193, SO
    • Kenneth George Jr., 5-11, 201, RJR
  • Cornerback 2
    • Warren Burrell, 6-0, 176, FR
    • Terrell Bailey, 5-11, 188, RSO
  • Star(nickel)
    • Shawn Shamburger, 5-11, 187, JR
    • Theo Jackson, 6-2, 190, JR
  • Safety 1
    • Nigel Warrior, 6-0, 190, SR
    • Jaylen McCollough, 6-0, 204, FR
  • Safety 2
    • Trevon Flowers, 5-11, 193, SO
    • Theo Jackson, 6-2, 190, JR
Obviously, there are a handful of notable names not listed here. For various reasons, Aubrey Solomon, Trey Smith, Bryce Thompson, and Daniel Bituli, all probable starters if available, have uncertain statuses heading into this week's game. If the status of any of these four individuals change and they are determined to be available, I'll provide an update to that effect. As is, this is a pretty solid guess as to the depth chart that we should see provided by the middle of this week.

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Vols Making Moves in Camp

Let me start by saying that I don't expect all of these guys to start, but there's a lot of reason to expect all of them to play some meaningful minutes this season. Now, a caveat: I don't intend to include any offensive linemen right now. The reason for that is things are still very much in flux on the offensive line and I could probably name ten guys I expect to make an impact this season, but how big that impact might be hinges heavily on who winds up where in that pecking order that doesn't exist yet. Some inconsistent performances this camp have also made things harder to call there.

Eric Gray - You would think it might go without saying that a guy who established state records and dominated the state as a running back might make an immediate impact, and yet there's a case to be made that heading into fall camp Gray was an afterthought at the running back position. Now, he's having the kind of lead-up to the season that should have Tim Jordan looking over his shoulder when it comes to getting touches out of the backfield. Where Ty Chandler is a speedster who can flat fly once he gets into the open field, Gray is more similar to Alvin Kamara, who wasn't the fastest back but was a nightmare to tackle because of his quick-twitch movements that prevented tacklers from getting clean hits in. Gray is also an excellent receiver and kick returner, so expect to see quite a bit of the freshman back this season.

Brandon Johnson - As a sophomore, Johnson looked like one of the most consistent receivers on the roster and was seemingly poised for a big junior season. That never materialized with the return of Jauan Jennings and emergence of Josh Palmer, and ultimately Johnson fell out of use and had arguably his worst season in Knoxville. If camp has been any indication, Johnson has absolutely no intentions of repeating last year's struggles as a senior. He's at minimum returned to his sophomore form, and with improvement in the strength and conditioning program, has likely exceeded where he's been at any point in the past. Johnson is right there as one of the first two guys off the bench when the staff wants to get Jennings, Palmer, or Callaway a breather, and with his experience, it's likely he would be the first man up if an injury occurred.

Jacob Warren - It's hard to say right now how much use Warren might get this season as part of the mix at tight end, and he could still find himself passed up by the freshmen, but Warren has become one of the more consistent options at tight end. He's bulked up for the position, and he is the tallest of the tight ends. After arriving looking like a wide receiver, he now looks the part of a tight end and is more than capable of holding his own as a receiver. There is still some reason for concern regarding his blocking, but with true freshmen Sean Brown and Jackson Lowe finding their heads swimming a bit and with Austin Pope and Andrew Craig looking more likely to fill an H-back role, Warrren has a very good chance to be the primary backup to Dominick Wood-Anderson.

Darel Middleton - Of the two JUCO defensive linemen who joined the team this summer, Middleton was more of an afterthought. He was a very large afterthought at 6-7, 311-pounds, but he wasn't necessarily expected to be a big contributor. Now, some are projecting he may be a starter and that's not a reach at all. Middleton doesn't always know what to do out there, but what he does do is attack quickly with a high motor. Sometimes you'd rather have a high-motor guy go out there doing the wrong thing as opposed to having someone do everything right but fail to make plays. Middleton now makes it two JUCO defensive linemen likely to make immediate impacts this fall.

Greg Emerson - A top defensive line recruit, a serious injury before his senior season essentially cost him two years as he was unable to play as a senior and essentially took most of a year to return to form, but he's getting there now and is another lineman poised to take over a starting role. The season-ending injury suffered by Emmit Gooden was a terrible loss but also an opportunity that Emerson has seized upon. A former high school defensive end, he brings an attacking, playmaking mindset to the nose tackle position.

Matthew Butler - Butler has carried a strong spring over into the summer, and he's probably sitting as a likely starter right now with Aubrey Solomon's status still uncertain. Butler wasn't the most heralded addition to the Vols, but all he's done since arriving is provide solid minutes as a reserve, biding his time until the opportunity came for an expanded role. Once that chance came for him, he took it by the reins and has shown no sign of fading away. Butler was a sack machine in high school and a return to anything close to that form is bad news for the SEC.

Henry To'o To'o - Summer enrollees rarely emerge as starters in the SEC. Henry To'o To'o isn't a typical SEC freshman, and right now he has the inside track on starting at Will linebacker for the Vols. In fact, his integration into the defense reminds me somewhat of Darrin Kirkland Jr.'s, but with one big difference: Kirkland didn't start week one. This is the type of player that the Vols have struggled to secure in recent years in recruiting and is a guy who will make a huge impact this season.

Quavaris Crouch - While he may not be currently poised to start, Crouch is certainly in a position to play significant minutes after shifting from inside linebacker, where he spent the spring, to outside linebacker. With Jordan Allen out indefinitely, one of the younger players must step up, and Crouch, with his spring jump, looks most likely to emerge as a key reserve.

Shawn Shamburger - Although he's been a regular contributor over the last two seasons, it appears Shamburger's time has finally come as he looks likely to at least begin the season as the starting Star (nickel). Baylen Buchanan's injury situation will keep him off the field indefinitely, which had the staff re-evaluating their plans at the position. They looked at a number of options, but Shamburger has made a strong case for the job. A possible factor in this could be Alontae Taylor, who is locked in a battle for his job at corner and could potentially become a more realistic option at Star if the staff elects to go with the final name on this list.

Warren Burrell - Never underestimate the importance of being on campus for spring football. Warren Burrell wasn't the most heralded recruit of the cycle by a long-shot, but here he is pushing for a starting job at corner. Burrell still doesn't always know exactly what he should be doing, but he does it all well, full speed, and with an eye on making plays. It's that playmaking ability that has him fighting for that job with Alontae Taylor. No matter who wins, expect all three to be big parts of the defense this season.

Saturday, August 10, 2019

Fall Camp Impressions So Far

Before we get this under way, these are just my impressions based on reports from practice and what I've seen on film. There's going to be jockeying as far as the depth chart is concerned, there's always the possibility of injuries, and everyone has limits on their access to practices. don't take any of this as gospel truth. It's one man's opinions based on what he's seen.

As an overall impression, this team is physically more imposing than they have been in the past several seasons. While the freshmen showing up looking the part is a credit to the recruiting, the overall physical improvement of the team is a testament to the work of Craig Fitzgerald and his staff. That's not to say Tennessee is going to get off the bus and look like Alabama, but they won't be getting off the bus against a Kentucky looking out of place anymore.

The team also looks faster and more agile out there. Although they obviously had a fairly impactful injury that they are having to deal with, otherwise the team simply looks bigger, faster, more physical, more flexible, and less likely to become excessively injury-prone than they were at times in the past.

Things at quarterback are both somewhat settled and also very much competitive as well. There is no question of the starter for the Vols. Jarrett Guarantano has that job firmly locked down and no one is remotely close to challenging him. Not only is this team, but he is a clear leader out there and has become more vocal in that role. The competition is between JT Shrout and Brian Maurer for the backup job, and as such the two of them are getting additional reps in practice that Guarantano is less in need of. They need to identify a backup quarterback who can step in if needed. Now, before you think Guaratano isn't out there throwing passes, that isn't the case. He's just throwing fewer than Shrout and Maurer.

When it comes to the running backs, it's not a crowded room, but it's a talented one. Carlin Fils-aime is still working on recovering from a spring injury and has yet to return to full contact, which is bad news from a depth perspective but is good news for freshman Eric Gray, who is able to get in more reps as a consequence. This has allowed Gray to make himself part of the conversation to make an immediate impact at running back this season. Jeremy Banks is absolutely a running back now after some shuffling back and forth during his freshman season, and he's by far the biggest of the backs out there. He has spent a fair amount of time working on the fumbling issues that plagued him at times during his freshman campaign, and at least through spring and now it appears to largely be behind him. Fans pretty much know what they have in Ty Chandler and Tim Jordan, although I've gotten at least some indication that Jordan has taken a step forward in his decisiveness and footwork while Chandler has added strength to better run between the tackles. This group should be a strength of the team if they can get some help from the offensive line.

The wide receivers are everything fans expected them to be and maybe actually better than anticipated. While everyone knows how good Marquez Callaway and Jauan Jennings are from their career exploits, Josh Palmer's productive season last year left fans hopeful he would take another step forward. Well, that certainly seems to be the case. Physically he looks NFL ready, and he's been playing the part in camp so far as well. Brandon Johnson is having probably his best offseason so far in Knoxville, and Jordan Murphy continues to display the blazing speed he brings to the table. Tyler Byrd has returned to making circus catches, and now the group is also getting some exciting catches in camp from redshirt freshman Cedric Tillman and true freshman Ramel Keyton. I genuinely think this is a group with the potential to see all eight receivers I've named get some play in big-time moments, but for certain the top six will get the bulk of the work. With several seniors in the mix, they are playing for a rookie contract now.

At tight end, Dominick Wood-Anderson is everything fans hoped he would be. That's good news. The less awesome news is that it's still unclear if someone is close to taking the reins hind him. For a few practices, Jacob Warren was getting run alongside him. Other times, it has been Jackson Lowe. Warren and Austin Pope don't have their heads swimming quite like Lowe and fellow true freshman Sean Brown. Princeton Fant seems likely to be a candidate for the H-back/fullback role largely held last season by Pope, although Pope and walk-on Andrew Craig are also guys in that mix. There's plenty of talent here. They just need to figure out how the rest of this group shakes out.

The offensive line is obviously the most closely watched group on the practice field right now. Tennessee cannot afford the struggles of the last two seasons from the group again. The good news is that they look bigger and better overall. The bad news is they are still trying to figure out what the starting five might look like. They have about ten guys they are currently focusing on in order to sort out a pecking order, and honestly last year they didn't have that many, so they are already in good shape. Add in that they aren't even fully healthy on the offensive line yet, with Trey Smith still trying to sort out his status as well as Ollie Lane and Chris Akporoghene mainly working with the strength staff and the staff has options. They just need to sort out the status of Smith and find a starting five. I expect the line to be better; I'm just not sure how much better yet.

Losing Emmit Gooden isn't good news and nobody is ever going to suggest that it is. If there is a silver lining to it, it is that Gooden will be back next year and part of a much more experienced defensive line. However, I'm significantly less doom and gloom about the development than some have been. The defensive line is deeper this season, and more guys look ready to play at this level. The idea of having a three-deep and actually using it isn't as far-fetched as it was a year ago. Gooden is a hit as far as experience in SEC games is concerned, but it's not a crippling injury, in part due to the addition of Savion Williams, Darel Middleton, and Elijah Simmons as well as the continued development of Kingston Harris, Matthew Butler, and Greg Emerson. The defensive line won't be Alabama or Georgia good, but they should be good enough to allow the linebackers to handle the edge-rushing while they push from the interior and give the secondary the help they need to defend the pass. Also, like everyone else, this group is bigger, stronger, and faster so they are ready to hold their own against the run as well. The biggest thing here is the same as at tight end and offensive line: establishing a pecking order.

Will Ignont and Daniel Bituli have both had some maintenance days and are being managed as both are fairly important to the success of the defense. Since the pads went on, maintenance days are rolling back around for certain key players again. This has enabled Henry To'o To'o to get some running time with the ones, and he's certainly right there in the mix to be the first man up behind Bituli and Ignont. Shanon Reid is also very much in the mix inside, and JJ Peterson has been settling in and having better practices after a rough first few days. Solon Page is still on the thin side but also looks the part and is a solid candidate for the third Will linebacker. Outside, things have pretty well established themselves regarding a starting duo there as well with Darrell Taylor and Deandre Johnson looking more or less locked into the top spots. Kivon Bennett has certainly established himself as the #2 behind Johnson and his most likely challenger if one should emerge. Exciting freshmen Roman Harrison and Quavaris Crouch have both looked good out there and are physically well-along, but they are also freshmen going through their first camps and are trying to grasp all the new concepts. Jordan Allen is working to get back out there and he could be a factor for a #2 job once he does.

There's not a ton of drama in the secondary, and this looks to be right there with wide receiver for the greatest strength of the roster. However, the injury bug has been keeping Baylen Buchanan out of practices, and that means the staff needs to identify who will fill in while he remains unavailable. Depth at safety gives the staff a number of options to shift down there, including possibly senior safety and presumed starter Nigel Warrior, which would likely bump freshman Jaylen McCollough into the starting role. This is less of a concern and more of a minor nuisance. While the top three corners are pretty well settled with Bryce Thompson, Alontae Taylor, and freshman Warren Burrell, there is an opportunity as the fourth corner in the rotation. Candidates right now would appear to include Kenney Solomon, Kenneth George Jr., Jerrod Means, and Cheyenne Labruzza. No one has separated themselves yet, but my guess would be George if he can pick back up where he left off this spring when he was emerging before an off-field incident.

Nobody ever sees the specialists doing work, so I can't offer much here beyond saying that this should be a reasonably strong group as a whole.

I'm feeling fairly good about the team and where they're at right now, and I'm potentially going to land on being a bit higher on them than some of the media will be. Some of that is faith in the team and staff, but also a big factor in my thoughts on that front are some key potential weaknesses in some of the Vols opponents in 2019. No, it doesn't feel like '98, but it might be feeling a bit like 2015, and for now that's big after 9-15 the last two seasons.

Saturday, July 27, 2019

Harrison Bailey, 247Sports, and Outraged Fans

I didn't want to touch this one. I figured it would blow over fairly quickly. After all, recruiting rankings are fluid right up until National Signing Day, so a couple of days of outrage and things mellow out until the next round of recruiting rankings. That's how it usually goes, but not this time. Nope. For some reason, the chatter just keeps growing. Fans are getting angrier and angrier.

For those lucky enough to have missed the current perceived slight to the Vols, quarterback commitment Harrison Bailey saw his ranking with 247Sports drop 49 spots in the latest recruiting ranking update after a somewhat up and down showing at The Opening. Harrison Bailey was at one time ranked as high as #48 nationally very early in the rankings for the 2020 class back in February of 2018, and since then has seen his ranking with 247Sports dip to its current low of #210 nationally. He is holding steady as the #5 pro-style quarterback in the class.

For fans, who have developed a victim mentality both deserved and unwarranted at times, it adds 247Sports to a list of those who hate Tennessee, along with referees, ESPN, CBS, and presumably God. Now, on the victim mentality matter, fans have every reason to feel disrespected, but it's not the media or referees or SEC or the Lord above they have to blame. It's the University of Tennessee. It's mismanagement from the top on down that has led to this mess. Questionable athletic director hires led to bad head coaching hires, iffy staffs, poor recruiting results, underwhelming player development, etc. Honesty from the media or veering off onto other topics during Tennessee games when the Vols aren't performing is all a consequence of over a decade of mismanagement and poor play.

ESPN absolutely does not hate Tennessee. That would be cutting their nose off to spite their face. Knoxville, as of 2017, was tied for the #4 market for college football in the country. Nashville tied for #6. Feel free to toss in at least portions of the viewing audience in some of the other top ten markets like Birmingham, Atlanta, and Greenville and you can see why ESPN isn't trying to run off Tennessee fans. Knoxville is the #60 market for television overall, but when it comes to college football the numbers skyrocket. Trust me, ESPN knows this.

Similar for CBS's Tennessee games. They know they get a boost from Vol fans when they air them. They aren't looking to run you off. They also can't ask announcers to spend too much time talking about a lopsided blowout loss by Tennessee again. Guys, I've been in the booth. You have to have something to talk about, and frankly, there's only so much you can say about one-sided contests.

247Sports isn't out to get anyone. GoVols247 is among the top 15 to 20 sites for traffic every month in the 247Sports network. The idea that they want to run people off or attack Tennessee recruits because they didn't commit to Alabama or Georgia is ridiculous. They aren't seeking to run off subscribers. Heck, when it comes to Tennessee content, there aren't many sites that give Vol fans as much to read as 247Sports, especially when it comes to things that can be read for free.

What about the rankings though? Why did Harrison Bailey fall so much? First of all, he didn't fall quite the way some fans are making it out that he did. He's still #210 in the country and is well within the Top247. As a four-star prospect, he is a player expected to play professionally. He didn't drop to a three-star prospect. He fell within the top 210 players in the country. He fell somewhat because other guys at different positions clearly moved ahead of him. That happens. All the time.

However, the other factor is that a prior concern proved to still be lingering, and that is his quickness in making his drops, moving his feet, and getting the ball out quickly. These are things that can be fixed with coaching, of course. They aren't even necessarily things that are uncommon to find among quarterbacks coming out of high school. It's a different level of competition week in and week out.

Jack Miller and Harrison Bailey both participated in The Opening and both saw some changes to their rankings out of the event. The Opening is a big stage, and it's a big stage with many of the best players at every position showing up and showing out. That means that little issues with a player's game can be highlighted as they are compared to other top talents. It's normal to see players move up or down after such an event.

Now, many fans are pointing to the Rivals 5-Star Challenge, where Bailey won MVP, as proof that 247Sports is being biased against him. That's not particularly meaningful in 247Sports' ranking because they aren't hosting the event, don't attend the event, and don't get a chance to analyze players at that event. In truth, The Opening is probably the first chance they had to evaluate Bailey since he went to the Charlotte regional back in May. Rivals is going to rank Bailey accordingly since they hosted the event, and that will boost Bailey's composite ranking. It's silly to accuse 247Sports for being biased against a player because they haven't had all the same events to evaluate a recruit at.

As for a bias against Tennessee, spare me. Cooper Mays moved up 72 spots in the last update. He has moved from being ranked as low as #531 in February to being at an all-time high now for him of #236 and entering the Top247. You can't ask for honesty from recruiting analysts and then get angry when they give honest assessments.

I get it. Bailey is one of the earliest big names to join the class. He's a quarterback, so he's viewed as the leader of the recruiting class. Anything that happens with him, positive or negative, is going to be overblown. Feel free to disagree with the recruiting assessments or the importance of recruiting rankings or even the value of mobility within the pocket. I'm all for that. Express yourselves to your heart's content. However, stop making false accusations of bias. Stop playing the victim when any network or website does something you disagree with.

Settle down. Harrison Bailey is the same kid you were excited about before. He's still the future at quarterback for the Vols. He's still one of the most active player recruiters. He is everything you thought he was no matter what one site has him ranked at as a recruit. Ultimately, he's going to decide who he's going to be as a Tennessee quarterback, not rankings from a website. If you can't handle kids being ranked and evaluated, maybe don't follow recruiting until National Signing Day and just enjoy the final result. It might be healthier for you mentally.

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

2019 Position Breakdowns: Tight End

Tennessee will likely find themselves relying on a couple of young tight ends this season in addition to their senior, but ultimately the general situation is viewed as better than it was last year when starter Dominick Wood-Anderson was basically the only guy who really fit the physical profile the coaches were looking for. Now they have at least three with the two freshmen, and depending on how a couple of other players have used the spring and summer, they could have as many as five that fit the bill.

Dominick Wood-Anderson was a JUCO that pretty much everyone wanted at the tight end position after moving there following being a high school quarterback and basketball player. He was solidly productive at Arizona Western, finishing his two years there with 45 receptions for 476 yards and 4 touchdowns while learning the position. Tennessee won the battle for his signature, looking to him to become the starter following the departure of Ethan Wolf. In his first year as the primary starter for Tennessee, he had 17 catches for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns, but given that it was his first season in the SEC and only his third playing tight end, it was at least good enough. Wood-Anderson took a big jump from his first season at Arizona Western to his second, more than doubling his receptions, and it's not a huge leap to think he could do the same this season. If not, it will likely mean one of the two highly-regarded freshmen have cut into his receptions. Wood-Anderson had 4 receptions for 19 yards and a touchdown in the spring game, so a good start toward a jump in receptions.

Jackson Lowe was an early enrollee this spring and quickly made his presence felt, not as though you were likely to miss the 6-4, 253-pounder. Lowe arrived probably needing to improve his strength some to further develop as a blocker, even though he wasn't exactly known for being the most explosive of receiving tight ends. That said, he can certainly make big plays as evidenced by his 16.2 yards per catch average in high school. He also put that on display in the spring game with 3 receptions for 60 yards, although his longest reception ended in a bit of tragedy has he lost some focus and fell victim to a defender's punch and fumbled away the ball. Lowe is almost certainly heading into the season as the #2 tight end, but it's certainly reasonable to expect his fellow freshman to push him for playing time.

Summer enrollee Sean Brown isn't going to be a receiving stat sheet stuffer, but if you want a player to help create a hole, the 6-5, 250-pound freshman is your man. Also a productive defender, Brown brings that defensive mentality to the tight end position, looking to punish the man across from him and advance to the next level. He was also an occasional ballcarrier for his high school team, although I don't know that we'll see that feature too much in Knoxville. If Lowe brings the receiving to the table, Brown is the enforcer on blocking downs. That said, I would expect Lowe to progress as a blocker and Brown to become a decent receiver. Brown could also fill the H-back/fullback role.

I know I've spent a lot of time on these two, but believe it or not they aren't the only scholarship tight ends on the roster. Austin Pope is easily the most experienced tight end on the roster, having spent three years at Tennessee so far. He's just not the most productive, having only caught three passes during his time with the Vols. His weight has fluctuated some. Ideally, he'll enter the next season around 240 or so and become part of the rotation at tight end. Pope was a very productive high school player who has been trying to strike the right balance between size and athleticism to get the job done. Last year he saw some time at fullback as well, a role he could continue to fill, although he may face new competition in that role.

Redshirt sophomore Princeton Fant has had a heck of a time finding his home on the roster, having been listed at wide receiver, running back, and tight end at different times. For now, tight end appears to be his official role, but he is a very strong candidate to fill the fullback role given his winding path. At 6-2, 230, he isn't necessarily the ideal fit for a tight end, but as an H-back/fullback type, he's exactly what you typically look for in that capacity.

Jacob Warren is a redshirt freshman and the tallest of the tight ends at 6-6. He arrived on campus looking much more like a skinny wide receiver than a tight end, but 20-some odd pounds later, he is filling out nicely. Warren racked up over 1,000 receiving yards in his last two years of high school and averaged 16.7 yards per reception, so he's a player who can certainly make an impact if he can grow into a contributor physically.

Andrew Craig made the move last season from preferred walk-on to contributor, even though he didn't add any statistics. He played in 11 games as a reserve tight end and goalline fullback, a role he'll look to continue to fill as a redshirt junior. When Craig was added, he was best known for his play as a defensive lineman although he had the build to play tight end. Now, he's fulfilled that vision.

It's a pretty similar situation right now with new preferred walk-on Hunter Salmon, who was a highly productive defensive end in high school who mostly spent his time at tight end clearing holes for the running backs. Salmon blocks with a defensive lineman mentality, similar to that of Brown. He doesn't just look to block his man; he looks to run him completely out of the play, put him on his back, and block the next man if he keeps his feet.

Up next, an article I'm sure many have been waiting for: the offensive line. Will the blocking again hold the offense back or will they clear the way back to bowl eligibility? We take a deeper look next time.

Tuesday, July 16, 2019

My Media Day Impressions

Don't expect this to be a particularly long write-up, in part because no program wants to tip their hand too much in July. That said, I wanted to at least offer up my own impressions of what was said by Jeremy Pruitt, Jarrett Guarantano, Darrell Taylor, and Daniel Bituli today at SEC Media Days.

The first thing that really jumped out at me was Jeremy Pruitt making recruiting pitches from the podium. Pruitt fully understands that recruiting is the lifeblood of any program, and he pushed for recruits to jump on board with some of his comments, most notably a pitch to receiver recruits when he mentioned the four seniors that will be departing from the wide receiver corps. He didn't skip a beat. He just threw it out there that there was a need and playing time to be found in Knoxville.

Another big takeaway is how thrilled everyone seemed to be with the results from the staff shuffling this offseason. It's impossible to think that you can upgrade at offensive coordinator, move a Heisman winning quarterback to quarterback coach, add a national champion quarterback and former offensive coordinator to handle the wide receivers, and shift a well-regarded receivers coach to work with the running backs (who were already pretty gifted receivers), and not find some joy in those changes. Indeed, Pruitt and Guarantano both sang the praises of the changes and their impact on the offense and development of Guarantano as a signal-caller. The defense saw less drastic changes, but Derrick Ansley was praised as well for his work as the defensive coordinator and as the defensive backs coach, both of which are Pruitt's babies. If Jeremy Pruitt is happy with the defensive direction, you have to view that as a net positive.

Confidence. On the list of things I wasn't really expecting, confidence was well up there. Certainly, fans aren't nearly as confident as many have repeated to me predictions that suggest most are leaning toward six or seven wins, and many seem to be ready to waffle on that prediction the moment they have a small flashback to the past. However, Pruitt and company sounded like a group expecting to win 8-10 games this season, which would be a degree of success the vast majority of Tennessee fans could get behind in year two. Now, I'm not telling anyone that this team is going to do that. Don't get me wrong at all. However, this is a staff and group of players that don't sound ready to settle for just getting to a bowl game. They have greater ambitions than that and seem to believe they are capable of accomplishing those goals.

Another thing that was obvious was self-reflection and improvement. Pruitt talked about how his first several months on campus were spent trying to fix things, be it strength and conditioning, facilities, and organizational matters. While dealing in those areas, he lost a focus on building a relationship with the players. He let trust slip through the cracks. In Derek Dooley, the Vols had a big-picture guy who missed out on those relationships. In Butch Jones, they had someone who had the relationships in many cases, but let everything else fall to ruin. Pruitt seems determined not to allow himself to fall into either trap. Guarantano offered up an anecdote about sitting down to dinner with his head coach, hashing things out and developing the type of relationship that allows Pruitt to trust him and vice versa. These are the important steps in building the type of program everyone wants to see. Additionally, Pruitt owned the lack of effort and focus seen in certain games last year that led to the Vols missing out on a very achievable bowl berth.

Pruitt also touched on the very important physical development of this team, reflecting on the fact that he had very few 300+ pound players to work with last year. That has changed. A quick readthrough of the current roster shows a total of 21 players listed at over 300 pounds, and realistically there are probably going to be more when the roster is updated and finalized in the coming weeks. Darrell Taylor talked about his own development and growing comfort at his new weight as he approaches 260 pounds after arriving in Knoxville at around 210 following playing at wide receiver in high school.

Not all the news was ideal, of course. Pruitt didn't shy away from talking about the fact that there aren't many experienced guys on the defensive line and pointed out that the outside linebacker spots are a bit thin. There's still work to be done on the roster to get things to a place where Pruitt will be comfortable. Although he focused on the defensive side of the ball for depth and experience issues, for the most part, he also discussed the lack of experience at quarterback behind Guarantano and the necessity of preparing somebody to handle the backup duties. Although it wasn't explicitly mentioned, I would personally also toss in the running backs as a position group in need of further depth as this spring showed, when walk-on Chip Omer became a more important part of the Orange offense due to Carlin Fils-aime and Eric Gray being unavailable due to injury matters.

Aubrey Solomon and Deangelo Gibbs remain in relative limbo. Although there was an outbreak of excitement yesterday regarding their status, Pruitt confirmed today that there has been no response at this time from the NCAA. Now, while official word might not have come down yet, it's likely that excitement stemmed from something, whether it's a bit of positive feedback from the NCAA or a confirmation of support for the transfer from Michigan. Either way, the staff is moving forward like Solomon will play until something changes.

Trey Smith is also waiting to determine his availability. Pruitt did confirm that Smith and his doctors are working on a plan to allow him to play, whether or not such efforts will be successful is harder to determine. Blood clot issues are tricky to deal with, and whether or not he plays there will still be some degree of risk management and regular medical maintenance. Don't assume he will be available to play. Be hopeful, by all means, but ultimately if he can't play, that's alright. His health has to come first.

My personal takeaway from everything today is that the program is still very much a work in progress, but for those who expected it to take three years for the Vols to become a factor in the East, that may not be the case. The Vols certainly would have to be viewed as a significant long-shot to win the East, but they can have a big influence on where others fall in that pecking order. Tennessee pulled off big upsets last season against Auburn and Kentucky, and they should have won the South Carolina game. The bizarre turnover nightmare against Florida wasn't typical of the Vols last season, so that too seems like a game that could have at least been much more competitive than it was. If this team is fully bought in, which it sounds like they are, the only teams the Vols can't match up with from a talent perspective are Georgia and Alabama, and the coaching staff would seem upgraded. I'm not suggesting the Vols will win ten games, but finding eight wins on the schedule isn't particularly far-fetched. Two bye weeks in the season, falling before the Georgia and Missouri games, can't hurt any either. My takeaway is this is a bowl team and maybe even one capable of finishing as high as third in the East, and after going 9-15 the prior two seasons, that's a gigantic leap in the right direction.

Monday, July 15, 2019

2019 Position Breakdown: Wide Receiver

When it comes to receiving production, Tennessee arguably returns more than anyone else in the country. That's the good news, and when it comes to the wideouts they return 271 receptions for 3,904 yards, and 22 touchdowns for their careers. They've also combined for 31 carries for 219 yards and a touchdown. Solid returning production, but it's also a level of production that 13 programs exceeded just last season, including three of the four playoff teams. Even if you go ahead and include the running backs and tight ends, three teams finished with more yardage, three with more completed passes, and 32 teams with more passing touchdowns, so you can see how on paper this returning production maybe doesn't measure up in some ways. That said, the Vols return every start at tight end, running back, and wide receiver from last season and that experience is usually a great indicator of improvement. When it comes to wide receiver, there are five very important names to know.

Jauan Jennings is a clear fan favorite, but he's also the most productive returning receiver with 87 career receptions for 1,184 yards and 10 touchdowns over his career. While last season wasn't necessarily the one he was no doubt looking for, he was plenty productive in his return from injury and a brief parting of the ways with the team. A high school dual-threat quarterback, he has shown off his running ability as well as passing a couple of touchdowns over his time with the Vols. He is a Swiss Army knife as an offensive weapon and the man fans and teammates call "a dog" will no doubt look to make his final season in Knoxville the best yet. All indications from spring were that Jennings was making some appearances with the quarterbacks as well, so maybe we'll see him return to being used creatively.

Marquez Callaway has been a big play waiting to happen for the Vols for the last two seasons. He's averaging 16.3 yards per catch for his career. He's also been an excellent punt returner for the Vols with 29 returns for 389 yards and 2 touchdowns. If there's been one small criticism of Callaway, it might be turning his big receptions into points as he hasn't always been able to turn those long balls into points, but he's among the fastest options for the Vols and a nightmare for defensive backs to cover consistently. Speaking of consistency, though, that's something that Callaway will need to add to his arsenal if he wants to have a breakout season. He has disappeared somewhat for stretches over the last two seasons, and he's only got the only last chance to prove himself to the NFL.

Josh Palmer went from a relative afterthought as a true freshman when he averaged just shy of 11 yards per reception to playmaker as a sophomore when he averaged 21 yards per reception. While his 23 receptions last year fell just shy of two per game, he'll have a chance to take a big jump in consistency heading into his junior campaign. Palmer may very well be the fastest receiver on the team (although Jordan Murphy may have something to say about that), and he's certainly got the best mix of length and speed on the roster. He just has to take those tools and turn them into more plays made because he sometimes seems to lose focus on making the catch in favor of worrying about what comes next.

Brandon Johnson has quietly been Mr. Efficient for the wide receivers the last three seasons, whether his opportunities have increased or decreased. He has good hands and makes sure to secure the ball before worrying about yards after the catch. His 58 career receptions have only gone for an average of 12.2 yards per catch and one touchdown, but he's not necessarily being looked to for big plays as much as his reliable hands to help move the chains. If the quarterback and offensive line situations improve, so should the number of passes to go around as a direct correlation. Johnson will be looking to make the most out of every pass that comes his way.

I rarely suggest a player needs to have a big season, but I'm going to go ahead and say the time has come for this wideout to show some consistency to go with his own big play ability. Jordan Murphy might be the only receiver with the ability to claim more speed than Palmer, and in fact, he at one time was claiming a 4.3 to 4.4-range forty. With a career-long reception of 50 yards and a career-long rush of 59, there's obviously no question that he can break big plays. He has to be able to do it more than occasionally, however, and since he only averaged 1.2 touches per game last year he needs to prove he can become a bigger factor.

These are probably the top five right now, but another veteran receiver will look to reclaim his past form for the Vols. Tyler Byrd exploded onto the scene for the Vols, providing 535 all-purpose yards as a true freshman. Unfortunately, he's only had 74 yards since then, even though those limited opportunities have produced a couple of touchdowns. Byrd has the size and speed to make big plays, but it's unclear what exactly has held him back since that freshman season. Obviously, the overall situation regarding the program has been far from ideal, and that could certainly be one reason he's only had six touches in the last two seasons, but Byrd has also seemingly become a less confident player. He has all the talent you could ask for and his two receptions for 50 yards was a decent sign in the spring game, but that positive sign needs to result in some gameday production.

After those six, we run pretty dry on experience. Jacquez Jones is sort of the old dude after the top six scholarship guys. He has technically appeared in a few games during his freshman season, but he got a medical redshirt before registering any statistics. Jones was a productive high school player at Clearwater High in Florida and had a good senior season. If he is healthy and picks up the offense well, he has the tools to be a productive member of the receiving corps, as evidenced by his three receptions for 44 yards in the spring game. However, things did have gotten more crowded and at least this season opportunities could be difficult to come by.

Cedric Tillman was a late addition to the 2018 recruiting class, a discovery for the staff from Nevada who had a few offers but largely he'd had a somewhat quiet recruitment due to him not really bursting on the scene until he was a senior. Tillman has excellent size at 6-3, 212 and will hopefully learn to use that size to produce for the Vols at a high level. He redshirted last year after appearing in four games, catching one pass for a loss of three yards. This spring, he had a nice 19-yard reception but he's honestly going to have a tough time being more than a rotation receiver at best this season.

The top receiver recruit for the Vols last cycle was Ramel Keyton, who had a highly productive prep career despite missing half of his senior season with injury. He has good size at 6-2, 185 and at times this spring showed off a skill set that could allow him to make an impact this season. Although his spring game stats weren't particularly impressive, they should have been better than they ended up being. Keyton is probably the best candidate to steal minutes from players like Byrd and Murphy, although don't expect either older player to make it easy on the freshman.

Jerrod Means could easily be called the Vols man of mystery because I don't think anyone really knows what to expect from him. A big-bodied receiver at 6-2, 212, the true freshman was a one-time North Carolina commitment who saw his recruitment cool off following an injury that cost him a chunk of his senior season. Means has reportedly run a 4.4-forty, and he has certainly run a 4.61-forty at an Opening regional. He also had a ridiculous yard per reception average as a senior before getting hurt, averaging 24.2 yards per catch. There have been some reports that he has impressed since getting on campus, but route running was a concern coming out of high school and I'd venture a guess that a redshirt season is in order.

I could go walk-on by walk-on at wide receiver, but there's almost no point. There's simply no realistic chance that any of them will be able to break through to even a minor depth role. Richard Mize Jr. and Ramsey Hailey have been around for a bit. Mize is a former high school quarterback who has moved to wideout with the Vols and Hailey has recently moved to receiver from defensive back. Grant Frerking, an entrepreneur who runs his own business in addition to playing football and going to college, came to the Vols as a tight end but his length has made him a nice asset to the receiver group. Tanner Dobrucky was at running back this spring but has now slid to wide receiver. JT Siekerman played receiver in football in high school before joining the Vols in addition to playing baseball in Douglasville. Newcomer Isaiah Montgomery has good size at receiver and has some good film showing decent hands and speed, but like almost any freshman and especially any freshman walk-on, he's going to need time to develop.

Up next are the tight ends, where two true freshmen are likely to be heavily relied upon behind senior Dominick Wood-Anderson while a veteran looks to mark his territory on a top reserve role.

Sunday, July 14, 2019

Year 1.5: Pruitt Versus Jones

Vol fans are understandably frustrated. How could they not be? Tennessee hasn't won the SEC East since 2007. They haven't won the conference since 1998. What some have liked to view as a decade of dysfunction could honestly be more broadly referred to as two decades of disappointment. Athletic directors have come and gone, each one leaving behind their own special mess for the next administrator to try and clean up. Bad hires and botched searches have left the Vols settling for their new head coaches on more than one occasion. Mediocre results on the field have led to decreasing returns in recruiting, causing the Vols to fall further and further behind other programs. Head coaches in over their heads have made hires that have stunted the development of the players and the program to such a degree that elite talent that makes its way to Knoxville has more often than not failed to live up to expectations. A program that had become accustomed to having players drafted every single year has seen draft droughts that further hurt them in trying to lure the best of the best to Rocky Top. So why should fans even pretend to be optimistic right now?

I mean, look at the sloppy searches that led to the Butch Jones and Jeremy Pruitt hirings. Honestly, as frustrating as the search was the led the Vols to Jones, in hindsight it looks brilliantly competent compared to the publicly played out nightmare scenario of late 2017. Once again, to fans it looks like the program settled for who they could get instead of hiring the best man for the job after a botched search. The good news is that the journey can be a disaster and still end up getting you to the perfect destination.

COACHING STAFF

With any new hire, the first thing that fans will look at is the staff that they assemble. Are they going out and hiring the best of the best? In the case of Butch Jones, a couple of hires might check that box off. However, for the most part, he hired with comfort in mind. With the exceptions of Robert Gillespie and Tommy Thigpen, he had some degree of familiarity with everyone he hired and had coached alongside most of them. Thigpen had an indirect connection as he had worked with assistant head coach and defensive backs coach Willie Martinez, so the only true outsider was Gillespie. It was a staff well-suited to win at Cincinnati. It was less well-suited to win in the SEC. After a 5-7 season and less than impressive results in 2013, the 2014 staff was exactly the same.

Jeremy Pruitt hired a staff that had largely won at bigger programs. Now, he had coached with many of them. He had a history with Kevin Sherrer, Chris Rumph, Chris Weinke, Charles Kelly, Will Friend, Tracy Rocker, and Brian Niedermeyer. He plucked Tyson Helton from his brother's staff at USC. He hired former Vol Terry Fair and grabbed a man well-known for his development of players in David Johnson from Memphis. He also went out and snagged a highly-respected strength and conditioning coach from the NFL in Craig Fitzgerald. When the first season in Knoxville led to largely underwhelming results, rather than resting on his laurels, Pruitt made changes. His new staff includes former Tennessee and Georgia offensive coordinator Jim Chaney, former Alabama and Oakland defensive backs coach Derrick Ansley as defensive coordinator, Kevin Sherrer moved from defensive coordinator to special teams coordinator, Tee Martin returned home to Tennessee as the assistant head coach, passing game coordinator, and wide receiver coach, David Johnson moved from wideouts to running backs, and Chris Weinke from running backs to quarterbacks. Talk about a staff shuffle as Pruitt fought to keep the coaches he sought to retain and let others move on, willingly or unwillingly. He also made quite certain that they fought to keep Craig Fitzgerald in the mix even though he was being pursued by his alma mater.

Those are significant and meaningful adjustments being made by a coach determined to win, friendships be damned. It's clear that Pruitt understands the business side of the job and doesn't let personal relationships get in the way of necessary changes. That was a noted criticism of Butch Jones as he tended to wait until his hand was forced to make any changes, overvaluing his friendships in a business where you can't let things be personal due to the short leash every new head coach finds themselves on.

RECRUITING

What about recruiting? That was largely viewed as Butch Jones's bread and butter. When it came to salvaging the 2013 class, he managed to bring in the 25th ranked class nationally, although that class was just 11th in the SEC and finished with an average player rating of 85.86. Now, the more accurate measure of the talent being added to a roster is the average player rating, which would see that class ranking 28th in the nation in 2013 and still sitting at 11th in the SEC.

In 2014, with a year to work, Butch Jones would bring in a top ten recruiting class. It ranked 7th nationally, 5th in the SEC, and had an average player rating of 89.50. This class had its issues after the fact, but there are certain things to consider about this class that may have made it look better than it was. The most obvious thing to consider is that only Old Dominion had more signees than Tennessee's 32 and nobody else in the top 30 of the rankings had 30 or more in their class. The next thing to consider is that the Vols dropped two spots when you look at the average player rating, meaning the class wasn't quite as talented as some might like to think. One final thing to keep in mind is that the top half of the class was largely built up of in-state players and legacies, meaning that it wasn't necessarily something that was going to be sustainable.

Let's compare that to Pruitt's first two classes. Coming off of a miserable 4-8 campaign, Pruitt was able to land the 21st class in the nation, which was good for 8th in the SEC with an average player rating of 87.57. Before anyone starts to think that Jones had fewer players in his first class, Jones had one more player in his 2013 class than Pruitt did in 2018. One of the big differences between the two was the fact that Pruitt added double the 4-star talents. The average player rating was 23rd in the class, so again it was a slight drop regarding the overall talent in the class, although there was a weird outlier in Stanford that only had 15 signees but a higher average.

Let's jump into Pruitt's first full class because this is where the two very different recruiting philosophies come into stark contrast. The 2019 class would end up ranked 12th nationally, 7th in the SEC, and had an average player rating of 90.49. Had Tennessee been able to take a full 25 players, this was probably a top ten class nationally. They trailed Auburn by one-hundredth of a point and trailed Clemson by less than four points, so they didn't even need a particularly crazy addition to move into the top ten, but they elected to use a couple spots to add transfers in Aubrey Solomon and Deangelo Gibbs. The player average rating placed them 14th in a cycle when talent was more evenly distributed than the past few cycles, but it was Tennessee's highest player average rating since the 2009 recruiting cycle.

Okay, so right now at a quick glance it looks like we're splitting hairs, right? The national class ranking is a half position better for Jones and the SEC ranking is a half position in favor of Pruitt, so no big difference, right? The difference lies in a couple of numbers, most notably the average player rating. Through two classes, Jones had an average player rating of 87.68. Pruitt currently has one of 89.03. At first blush, that still seems pretty close, but Pruitt is dancing close to a 4-star average player rating and has a 4-star average in his 2019 class. By comparison, Jones never got any closer than his year two average rating. Jones's five-year class average was 88.24, and Pruitt's first class had a better average than both Jones's first and last classes at Tennessee.

I want to look at it in a different way though. Using the 247Sports composite rankings, Pruitt has had 46.7% of his signees/additions be either 4 or 5-star ranked recruits. By comparison, in those first two years under Jones, it was just 36.4% that were 4 or 5-star ranked, and over the course of the full five years of Jones's tenure at Tennessee, it was 37.5% of his signees that were 4 or 5-star recruits.

Bottom line: Butch Jones wasn't the recruiting guru so many thought he was. His two top-ranked classes both had 30+ signees, something that isn't even possible to do anymore in the current recruiting landscape due to changes in the rules. His recruiting was fool's gold, tricking people into thinking he was recruiting at an especially high level when the reality was that he was recruiting volume over quality. Pruitt isn't quite yet recruiting at the talent percentages of the best teams yet, but he has moved the needle much closer to the 50% or above percentage that indicates the strong classes of current perennial winners.

DEVELOPMENT AND RETENTION

This is the hardest to evaluate after just one year, but we'll begin this with retention. Now, since we're just considering the first year and a half of each coach, I won't be able to go into all the transfers Butch Jones had. Instead, I'll be looking just at the guys that either failed to qualify or left within that year and a half timeframe that Jones had brought in himself. Four from Jones's first class either didn't enroll or didn't make it to year two. The 2014 class was a mess, but none of that had come to pass by that summer.

In the case of Jeremy Pruitt's first two classes, he has one right now that seems unlikely to qualify from the 2019 class, but otherwise, everyone has enrolled and is still with the program.

How about development? Really tough to gauge with the limited sample size, but there is one potential indicator: physical changes from year one to year two. I'm going to do this in somewhat broader strokes, working out an average for the various position groups from one year to the next. I would love to use this as a gauge, but there's one issue with doing so: Tennessee hasn't put out a fall roster yet and so I can't get an accurate measure of the changes for the Vols right now.

Additionally, development comes down to coaching players into better versions of themselves. We won't be able to gauge that either until we see a couple years of products on the field. All I have right now is that early on, Pruitt appears to be doing a better job of retaining players he brings in, there are some early indicators that there are gains being made under Pruitt that may not have taken place under Jones, and we have no idea how the teaching aspect of things is going yet. Basically, we can't quite measure this one right now, but things early are at least trending Pruitt here.

CONCLUSION

With just a year and a half to compare, so far Jeremy Pruitt appears to be heading in the right direction. He has things going the right way in recruiting. He's assembled a staff of winners and made changes when things didn't work as expected after year one. He's seemingly got things moving in the right direction in player development, but at the very least that is still a tentative assessment.

As a rule, making the right moves in these three areas results in winning. Pruitt is doing the things you'd expect a head coach who will have success to do. There were troubling signs with Jones, and he won largely because of a handful of standout players who carried not just the rest of the team but also the staff. It will take another year and a half until we know for sure about Pruitt, but comparing him to Butch Jones just doesn't add up based on what we've seen so far.

Saturday, July 13, 2019

2019 Position Breakdowns: Running Back

Tennessee wasn't a dominant running team last year, but they certainly weren't awful either. They improved in every rushing category over their 2017 team, but it was still their second-worst rushing output since 2012. However, there is a lot of reason for optimism about the 2019 version of the Tennessee running game, and a lot of that has to do with how much rushing production returns from that 2018 team. 86.5% of the rushing yardage, 88.8% of the carries, and 75% of the rushing touchdowns. Tennessee will need to see the offensive line improve in order to aid the running backs, but the running backs can help themselves as well. The running backs at times struggled to trust the holes to be there and got a little too skittish in the backfield, at least in part contributing to the 99 lost yards by the returning running backs.

Ty Chandler is the big name among the group, and he's certainly been the most productive of the running backs still on the roster, compiling 1,755 all-purpose yards in two seasons to go with 10 total touchdowns. Calling Chandler explosive is perhaps an understatement for a player who has a career-long run of 81 yards, a career-long reception of 42 yards, and a career-long return of 91 yards. When he gets free, he's virtually impossible to catch and stop. That is a great tool in his arsenal.

The problem is when he's not making the big plays and he slips into being at best an average running back. Part of that has been being a younger, slightly smaller back who has at times struggled to move the pile when running inside. With some upgraded blocking, this is likely to improve. Thankfully, Chandler isn't banking on that alone, making strides to catch up physically to his fellow running back Tim Jordan in adding muscle to his frame.

Chandler is going to have to be a major part of any improvement for the Vols as he is one of the few players on the roster who has displayed big-play ability. He's got that part down. Now he needs to make the mundane plays increasingly impressive down after down. Until that happens, Chandler will cease to become the clear #1 running back.

His regular contributor last year was Tim Jordan, a running back that is constructed like a cannonball: stout, hard as a rock, and difficult to stop. Jordan has been much more of the guy making the mundane between the tackles carries above average, which has kept him regularly rotating with Chandler, although his decision making when it comes to deviating from the design of the play has been iffier as well. Among the running backs, he was the leader in lost yardage.

This pair of true juniors have a combined career 405 touches, 2,565 all-purpose yards, and 13 touchdowns, so the Vols are in fairly good hands with those two, who have averaged 6.3 yards per touch combined over their two seasons with the Vols. However, few programs get by riding one or two running backs anymore, either due to injuries, typical wear and tear, or even opting to ride the hottest hand each game. More good news for the Vols here, as they have a couple other experienced options in the mix as well as a highly-touted true freshman.

Carlin Fils-aime is the old guy in the backfield as the lone scholarship senior between the quarterbacks and running backs. He's also had some success despite an almost disrespectful lack of touches considering his output. On just 52 career carries, Fils-aime has produced 309 yards, good for a 5.9 yard per carry clip, and 5 touchdowns. One arguable limitation would be a general lack of production as a receiver, producing just 18 yards on 4 receptions over the past three seasons. Although Fils-aime got work last offseason as a corner, he moved back to running back and has established that as his home as a football player, although he is also a quality special teams performer with 5 tackles on coverage units.

Jeremy Banks is the guy with some experience that arguably generates both the most excitement and most frustration. Last season, as a true freshman, Banks proved early on that he belonged on the field with his tough running style and productive short-yardage work, but as time went on he became plagued by fumbles, seeing his opportunities dry up and even some work on defense at linebacker. He finished the year with 52 carries, 185 yards, and 3 touchdowns as well as a reception for 10 yards. The biggest of the running backs, if Banks has the fumbling issues under control he will be tough to keep off the field.

From an experience standpoint, the Vols have plenty at running back. That experience comes with production too, with the foursome combining for 514 touches, 3,087 all-purpose yards, and 21 touchdowns. Limiting it to just their combined work on the ground, they have produced 433 carries for 2,003 yards and 17 touchdowns at 4.6 yards per carry. Now, that production isn't going to blow everyone away at first blush, but considering most of that occurred during two of the worst seasons in program history it is overall fairly impressive.

Newcomer Eric Gray is yet another dynamic addition to the backfield. He had over 9,000 all-purpose yards in high school and 134 total touchdowns, including one on an interception return as a freshman. Gray is quicker more than fast, although he has run an electronically-timed 4.57-forty, so he's no slouch (former Vol running back and current New Orleans Saint Alvin Kamara ran a 4.56 at the NFL Combine and his forty time would have tied for 11th at this past NFL Combine). Barton Simmons of 247Sports drew the comparison to Kareem Hunt as a player, and there are some parallels there as far as playing style, although Alvin Kamara also works as a potential comparison. One area Gray needed to improve upon once he arrived on campus was his strength as this was ultimately one of his less impressive testing results. Still, that's not hugely concerning for an all-purpose back right out of high school. With his work in the strength and conditioning program since January, he should be right in the mix for carries.

Those five make up the current scholarship options at running back, although it's possible that some players could make the move to running back depending on how things progress in fall camp. Tennessee does have four walk-ons in the mix, one of whom is an interesting newcomer and another who has been around the program for a few years and helped to fill in this spring with Fils-aime and Gray sitting out. Chip Omer is going on his fourth season around the program and was the player called upon to be the second back for the Orange team offense in the spring game. At 6-0, 202, Omer is built for the position and he was a relatively productive player in high school, averaging 7.6 yards per carry in high school and 12.9 yards per reception. Omer is a tough player, also serving as a standout linebacker in high school. A strong athlete, he also handled kickoff returns, taking two back for touchdowns. Omer isn't a player the Vols would want to rely on, but if injuries forced him into a reserve role, he would likely be capable in the role.

James Christian is roughly the same age and has spent roughly the same amount of time with the Vols, but Christian hasn't quite earned the same place in the pecking order. Christian had to wait his turn in high school, only starting as a senior. He was reasonably productive in high school despite being on the smaller side at running back, only checking in at 5-8, 180 as a senior. He's added over 25 pounds in college, and if called upon would likely be able to be somewhat productive.

Cameron Miller joined the Vols as a defensive back initially before moving to running back this summer. Miller began his career with a brief stint with Carson-Newman before making the jump to Tennessee. At CN, he was set to play linebacker, a position where he excelled in high school. He didn't play as a true freshman for CN before moving to Knoxville, and now as a redshirt freshman he'll look to find a home at running back. As for how he might perform at running back, it's difficult to gauge as I can't find any film of him on offense despite him playing it in high school.

Fred Orr is an interesting newcomer among the walk-ons. At 5-11, 195, he certainly looks the part. He was a very productive high school running back as well, finishing his high school career with over 3,500 rushing yards and 41 rushing touchdowns and over 750 receiving yards. He averaged 7.2 yards per carry and 12 yards per reception as well as also showing off some strong kick return ability. He had offers from some of the service schools but a transfer from Rossview to Northeast High saw him splitting carries with Tyrique Freeman, who accepted his own scholarship offer to Air Force. Orr was a dynamic weapon in high school and the 2-star recruit may ultimately prove to develop into a quality depth piece for the Vols if he can make the most of his opportunity in Knoxville.

Up next is a look at arguably the strongest position group on the 2019 roster: the wide receivers. The Vols will need to make the most of these receivers while they still have them.