Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Recruiting Update, 8-22

Tennessee has added a couple of commitments since my last recruiting update, and that has helped to make the recruiting picture a little bit clearer as well. First, let's look at the two new names on the board.

Paxton Brooks was the first to join the class on the 17th. Brooks has been ranked by the 247Sports Composite as a 3-star kicker, although he is expected to punt for Tennessee. According to Kohl's Professional Camps, Brooks is the #2 punter in the nation in the class of 2018, averaging 41.8 yards per punt during his junior season. Brooks is currently awaiting the update to the specialists on 247Sports as well as awaiting rankings from Scout and Rivals. ESPN has Brooks as the #5 kicker in the nation and the top rated punter. The 6-5, 170 pound has been working on improving his hang time, something the Vols staff has asked him to do. He will likely compete with current freshman Joe Doyle for the punting job next season as they vie to be the player to replace senior Trevor Daniel.

Up next was Shocky Jacques-Louis, who pulled the trigger for Tennessee yesterday. The 6-1, 175 pound wide receiver is a former and now future teammate of freshman linebacker Shanon Reid. Among his many offers were Kentucky, South Carolina, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Michigan, Michigan State, and Georgia. As a junior, Jacques-Louis had 20 receptions for 314 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns along with a touchdown on a kickoff return and one on a punt return. He is a player who fits the mold of what the staff was looking to add this cycle, a speedy receiver who can make deep plays. He should be the last receiver in the class.

Now, Tennessee's staff, one way or another, is of the belief that they can squeeze 24 into this class. I don't see how, but they've proven their magical ability to exceed expectations with their past classes, so at this point I'm assuming they have some plan of attack for this. That means that without attrition, they have two spots remaining. One of those two spots seems likely to go toward a defensive end. The other spot left in the class likely has two possibilities: Jerome Carvin or a defensive end. Under the number crunch, in order to take Jaycee Horn or their seeming backup plan in Dashon Bussell, they would probably have to cut loose someone somewhere. I don't know that they have this as high a priority at this time as some might think, and they could very well be pursuing another corner as a luxury rather than a necessity. Another option could be adding Carvin and dropping another offensive line commit.

Of course, the staff is likely to have a couple battles ahead of them to keep certain guys in the fold. Anthony Grant, Lyn-J Dixon, and Dorian Gerald are players who certainly haven't closed the door on looking around at other options. That's not to say that any of them are likely to flip, as at this time I wouldn't consider any of them imminent threats to decommit, but it's something to keep an eye on. South Carolina, Louisville, and  Florida are teams pursuing Gerald. Clemson is certainly pursuing Dixon, and Georgia has offered Grant.

Some are still holding out hope for Tennessee to get 25 into the class, but at this point I'm not seeing that as being realistic so much as wishful thinking. However, if that were to happen, it would certainly help with the numbers as Tennessee would be in a situation where they could add needs and luxuries to round out the class. I'm not currently seeing anything that I would consider an imminent commitment, but as we've continued to see with this cycle, anything is possible.

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

2017 Season Prediction

I confess that I'm still on the fence about many things and really nailing down a prediction isn't proving easy for me. There are still plenty of questions surrounding this team. In the end, it's come down to one of a handful of options: the safe choice, the pessimistic result, or the best-case scenario. So how to choose and evaluate my feelings on the projections for this season is now the big thing left to decide.

I'll be the first to admit I have questions about Butch Jones. I have since he was hired. I never thought his ceiling was going to be as high as fans would want it to be, and I long suspected he would become a victim of the renewed championship expectations in Knoxville once things stabilized. That still may be the case, but he did address one of my bigger criticisms; he went out and started making the best possible hires instead of just hiring his friends.

In fact, his impressive new hires are really the biggest reason I think Jones might just exceed his past limitations. Some head coaches make their assistants better like Nick Saban has always done, but a good group of assistants can elevate a head coach to a different level, which is very much what I think has taken place at Clemson under Dabo Swinney. Right now, Butch appears to have assembled a staff with the capacity to do that for him.

The roster has talent. It has a surprising amount of experience. It's still pretty unproven, however. Few of the highest rated former recruits on the roster have performed up to their high school rankings yet. However, proven production aside, the talent is present and the upside for the team is pretty obvious. Well, as long as they're healthy, which was a big issue last year.

Then there are the opponents. Georgia still has to prove they have playmakers at receiver, an improved offensive line, and a defense that can stop opponents consistently. Florida has to have their team on the field instead of suspended, replace the bulk of the defense, and settle on a quarterback. South Carolina has arguably the SEC's least ideal defensive end situation. Georgia Tech is banking on a new quarterback to lead the offense. LSU has a new head man, a roster being battered by attrition, and a quarterback situation that they wish included a game manager. In fact, they've converted the #1 safety in the last class into a wide receiver just trying to make the passing game better. Bottom line, aside from maybe Alabama, no opponent is unbeatable.

Tennessee has a pretty solid situation at the offensive skill positions and quarterback, and a very strong situation on the offensive line (when everyone is healthy and at practice). They have two five stars and a four star leading the way at end to replace 1st round draft pick Derek Barnett. They return the defensive tackles, who are healthier than at the end of last season. The linebackers are fairly deep and pretty talented. The secondary is settled at safety and deeper at corner than a year ago. The corners aren't a finished product yet, but they appear to be improved over last season with a new position coach.

So will I play it safe, go all in, or low ball it in order to keep people happier regardless of the outcome? Well, I'm not much of a gambler, but not because I haven't done it before. In fact, I used to do it too much, especially playing poker. I was a very aggressive player, which meant that I either won big or lost big. In a true gambler's spirit, I'm going all in on this team. The truth is that there really is a limit on being snakebit unless you're the Cubs or Red Sox, and even they overcame the unlucky streaks eventually.

10-2 regular season with losses to Georgia and Alabama. As much as I would love to see Tennessee top the Dawgs again, at some point talent matters and Georgia has it for days. They have experience as well. None of their question marks appear to be crippling, so overcoming them looks pretty practical. Alabama is...well, Alabama. I'd love to tell you that Tennessee is as talented as them, but we aren't that talented. I'd love to say we had a coach on Saban's level, but aside from maybe Urban Meyer that doesn't exist. They are proven at every level on both sides of the ball in Tuscaloosa, same as usual because even the backups played and played well last season. Alabama may not be running the table, but as far as Tennessee's schedule goes, they're the best on the slate.

I think the Georgia Tech hand-wringing is a bit overblown. GT can certainly catch teams off-guard, but this idea of them as some explosive giant slayer is certainly a myth. Last season, their biggest win over a Power 5 opponent was 15 points against Kentucky in the bowl game. That was their biggest win since their 15 point bowl win in 2014. That 11-3 campaign in 2014-15 is as good as it's gotten for the Rambling Wreck. Under Paul Johnson, the Yellow Jackets have averaged 7.8 wins overall and 4.7 conference wins per season with an average division finish of 2.6 in the standings. The last two seasons have represented their worst division finishes under Johnson and the conference appears to be leaving Georgia Tech behind and everyone appears to be figuring them out.

Unfortunately, that probably means no SEC title game again. I've tried finding two losses on Georgia's schedule, but if they are playing up to the level they should Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida are probably the only possible threats and I would guess that Auburn is the only likely loss if one is coming in the regular season. I feel the same way for Alabama, ultimately, and that may actually mean Alabama fails to make the title game too if they drop the Auburn game. Time will tell if Auburn is fool's gold, but I have to admit that they look bright and shiny right now. I'm saying the title game is Georgia versus the winner of Alabama-Auburn. I would also place Alabama and Auburn on alert against their respective ACC foes. Both look pretty dangerous to draw early in the season.

Now, missing out on the division title might be a blessing in disguise, especially if there is a season finish in which no SEC team has fewer than two losses, which is certainly possible. Tennessee would then have the earliest loss of the bunch and arguably the best standing in the rankings at that point. That's not to say the Vols are heading to the playoff as I think that would likely go to the conference champ, but it would very likely put them first in line for a New Year's Six bowl. The Sugar Bowl is part of the playoff this year, so although I'm guessing here I think the Peach Bowl would be the likely landing spot. I'm of the opinion that Florida State wins the ACC and represents them in the playoff, but I don't think Virginia Tech will be that far behind and I am of the opinion that they will represent the ACC in the New Year's Six bowls against the Vols in a rematch of the 2009 Peach Bowl. That particular bowl has been particularly unkind to Tennessee, with the Vols going 1-4 in their five appearances, but I think this gives them their second Peach Bowl victory in front of another impressive crowd.

This pushes Butch Jones to his first 11 win season since 2009 at Central Michigan and first double digit win season since 2011 at Cincinnati. I would expect some staff turnover following the season, but I think Jones will also see a nice raise and extension that will either please or anger fans depending on their take on Jones. It would be Tennessee's first 11 win season since 2001 and also their first double digit winning season since 2007.

Another thing worth noting is this: since Butch Jones arrived at Tennessee, I've predicted the team to go 5-7, 7-6, 9-4, and 12-2. With the exception of last season, I've generally had a pretty good bead on what the team would do under Jones. This season is a lot tougher to get a read on, but I'm generally optimistic because I think the changes that have taken place in Knoxville have been for the better. We'll see if my optimism is ultimately rewarded.

Monday, August 14, 2017

15 Players to Watch in 2017

These guys aren't in any sort of order other than how they stand out to me in my mind. Some will make huge impacts. Others won't stuff the statsheet but will play major roles as the season progresses. These are the relative unknowns (outside the program, anyway) who appear poised to be a big part of Team 121.

Marquez Callaway - I cannot emphasize this enough: Callaway looks like the best candidate to serve as Jauan Jenning's #2 this season. Josh Malone wouldn't have had the season he had last year without Jennings garnering attention, and Callaway has to be able to provide that for Jennings this season. I personally think he will. Callaway is an athletic specimen with the frame you love to see in a wide receiver. He has length, speed, and leaping ability, and his hands have progressed a fair bit from last season. He's still not a finished product, but he's probably not far off from where Jennings was last season. Callaway has guys pushing him to be better, and he seems to be answering the call while coming out of his shell more and more. He has star potential.

Ty Chandler - This seems obvious, but he really does bring an explosive element that the roster needed in order to help replace the loss of Alvin Kamara to the NFL. He's not the most impressive looking player physically right now, but despite looking a bit like a large slot receiver or small wideout, he runs out of the backfield like the type of speed back every team would love to have. He's not small, but he's not nearly as big as he'll become, and he doesn't look like he'll lose any of his speed and quickness as he grows and develops. Where most running backs are either quick or fast, Chandler is both.

Josh Palmer - If there's a threat to Callaway's chances of starting, it might very well come in the form of this true freshman. He looks much further along both physically and technique-wise than anyone, the coaches included, could have hoped for. Palmer was a consensus 3-star, not the biggest or fastest of the receivers in the class, but he does seem to be the one making the most noise now. Of course, he was a late-bloomer for St. Thomas Aquinas, but when he came on he finished the season as one of the team's best despite being part of a group of seniors that included players who committed to Miami, Ohio State, Illinois, FAU, and Kent State, and that was just the running backs and receivers. Quarterback Jake Allen is now enrolled at Florida, another running back landed with Iowa, and others landed with Notre Dame, Pitt, Michigan State, Mississippi State, and...oh yeah, Tennessee, in the form of Kivon Bennett. Bottom line, this is a very good team and Palmer still managed to shine in the second half of their season. Palmer has looked smooth, fluid, and mature at receiver, and on top of all that he's really only played one full season of American football as he is originally from Canada.

LaTrell Bumphus - This tight end came in well ahead of schedule, and he has looked very much like a freshman that can play right away. So much so, in fact, that he may be pushing Jakob Johnson, who is now fighting for the #2 job after essentially walking away as the clear second tight end after spring practice. Bumphus is big, athletic, and a willing blocker. He brings the tenacity of a high level defensive lineman to the tight end position, which makes sense considering he was recruited by many schools to play defensive end.

Marcus Tatum - Brett Kendrick may be the likely right tackle, but he's also had some trouble in the past staying healthy. Logic would say that Tatum won't just play this season, but he'll likely start at some point. He did last year too at maybe 265. Now he's close to twenty pounds heavier while remaining the athletic specimen he was coming out of high school. If Tatum can get back to where he was before missing a few practices, he might even be able to push Kendrick for the job. Probable backups like Tatum, Boulware, and Thomas give the staff a level of security they probably wouldn't have had a year ago.

Ryan Johnson - He was one of the higher rated commitments in the 2016 class, a 6-6, 280 pound, 4-star offensive lineman who was the top signee on the OL. Even so, he ultimately redshirted as a true freshman as he worked to convert into an interior lineman. Now, he's in position to become a potential key reserve at one of the guard spots while also getting work at the center position. Johnson is up over 300 pounds and is displaying the aggression and toughness that made him such a coveted recruit.

Matthew Butler - I feel like I've definitely mentioned him before, but this young man has looked good being lined up at all four spots on the defensive line. When he arrived on campus, he declared to the whole team that he could play anywhere on the defensive line, then he stepped on the field and proved it was more than just talk. He looks every bit of his 6-4, 274 pounds, and he has a high motor and good athleticism. He still needs to add to his arsenal of pass rush moves, but whether he's at end or at tackle, he can torment quarterbacks. If you're worried about him defending the run, he also had 100 tackles for loss in three seasons in high school. He looks like he was designed in a video game, and if reports from camp are any indication he can play like it too.

Deandre Johnson - Unheralded, oft-forgotten, and yet he is very likely to be in the two deep week one. Johnson arrived as an early enrollee at 6-4, 235 who wasn't exactly the top name on anybody's list of freshmen to watch, yet he was the second player to lose his stripe this spring after 5-star Trey Smith. He's close to 260 now and looks every bit the part of a college defensive end. He's motivated, talented, and has picked up on everything very quickly, which will likely mean he finds himself thrust into the two deep with two former 5-stars in Jonathan Kongbo and Kyle Phillips as well as 4-star Darrell Taylor.

Elliott Berry - Believe it or not, the forgotten Berry brother has been quietly having an excellent camp. It's hard to say exactly how he'll be used, but my suspicion is he might get looks as a nickel linebacker at his new, svelte 5-11, 206. He had a strong season last year after being forced into action due to injury, starting 4 games and playing in all 13 while racking up 34 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and a pass defended after playing almost exclusively on special teams before that. He won't necessarily supplant Quart'e Sapp or Cortez McDowell, but he could have special packages designed to get him on the field to take advantage of his skill set.

Will Ignont - I don't know exactly what role Ignont will play this season yet, but I do know that he will play. In fact, his rapid progression throughout fall camp is actually opening up a possibility that the staff has tossed around: Darrin Kirkland and Daniel Bituli on the field at the same time. Kirkland and Bituli are two of the bigger and more physical linebackers on the roster along with Austin Smith, all of whom also have the athleticism to hold their own in coverage.

Kivon Bennett - Tennessee may have struck gold with this defensive line class, and the truth is none of the guys I've mentioned were their highest rated signee on the DL. Bennett, however, does come with a pedigree, and quite a good one at that. His father, Cornelius Bennett, was a big time player at Alabama and later in the NFL, and the younger Bennett will look to carve out his own legacy. He's not off to a bad start at all either, occasionally flashing on the field despite being a bit undersized at defensive tackle at 6-1, 275. He may not be the most physically imposing player, but he certainly is making a move on finding a spot in the rotation.

Theo Jackson - While not the biggest name in the class among the defensive backs, Jackson might now be positioning himself to make the biggest early impact. He has plenty of length at 6-2, and despite being on the skinny side at 178 he was a do-everything athlete in high school. He excelled on defense, picking off eight passes in two seasons while playing quarterback, receiver, and whatever else Overton High needed him to do. Jackson has picked up right where he left off in high school and he is breaking through at a spot where he isn't needed, but is very much welcomed.

Justin Martin - Emmanuel Moseley isn't yet 100%, Shaq Wiggins is still trying to figure out exactly how the coaches want him to do things in Knoxville, and the freshmen are, well, freshmen, but the player who has become the one constant right now at corner is Martin. He's always had all the physical tools you could want, but now he's figuring out the technique required to excel at corner in the SEC. Better late than never as he brings safety size, wideout speed, and the attitude you want to the corner spot. If he brings the technique to match, he could be an all-conference performer.

Tim Jordan - Chandler may have taken over the #2 spot behind starting running back John Kelly, but the #3 spot is up for grabs...or is it? Carlin Fils-aime is still fighting to be the #3 with Jordan, who is bigger, stronger, and might just be faster too. What he's not is as experienced as Fils-aime, but running back is usually a pretty quick transition from high school to college. Usually the physical demands of college football is what gets to a kid the most, but that doesn't seem likely to be an issue for Jordan, who looks like a senior physically. We'll see who really does spell Kelly and Chandler when the season kicks off, but right now I'm leaning toward Jordan.

Evan Berry - It's odd to say that a former All-American is a player to watch, but he may very well be. The emergence of Jackson at safety may be freeing up Evan Berry to become even more of a weapon than he already was. There's a chance that he will get looks on offense as the team tries to find the best ways to make use of the 5-11, 205 pound speedster. Offense, defense, and returns. Hmm...sounds like a nice way for a senior to build up a resume before he auditions for the NFL.

Monday, August 7, 2017

Tennessee's 2017 Opponents, Part 2


  • Alabama: If you're looking for a bunch of good news for Tennessee in this one, I'm sorry in advance. A quarterback? Check. Running backs? Definitely check. Wide receivers? Yep. An offensive line? Is the Pope Catholic? Yeah, the bottom line is that this is set to be quite a good offense, even with a new offensive coordinator. Jalen Hurts is an early favorite to be first team All-SEC. Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough are a dynamic 1-2 punch at running back. Calvin Ridley is still looking to breakout at receiver, but he was very good last year, catching 72 passes for 769 yards and 7 touchdowns. Cam Sims and Robert Foster will be part of the plan to replace Gehrig Dieter and ArDarius Stewart, who combined for 69 receptions, 1,078 yards, and 12 touchdowns. The talented seniors have shown flashes of the players they can be, but they'll have to hold of younger players like Jerry Jeudy, who has already made some noise since his arrival on campus. Lengthy freshman Tyrell Shavers may be another player to keep an eye on. While finding wide receivers to toss to and running backs may not be an issue, tight end may prove to be. Replacing the production of O.J. Howard will likely take more than just a single player, and Hale Hentges and Miller Forristall look to be among the top candidates to try and provide production from the tight end spot. The staff would no doubt like to see those two pushed for the role, either by one of two freshmen (Major Tennison, Kedrick James) or one of the returning players, the best candidate being Irv Smith. The offensive line appears to be just fine. Perhaps not as proven as offensive lines in the past, but certainly one that should be able to keep Hurts upright and create holes for the backs. The defense has a few more questions. Da'Shawn Hand and Da'Ron Payne are proven commodities entering starting roles for the first time, and they look to be joined by massive but unproven Raekwon Davis. While the top three options all look very good, beyond Isaiah Buggs the depth  needs to materialize more than it has up to this point. Still, as long as three of the top four are healthy I expect them to be pretty strong. Terrell Lewis, formerly Hall, looks very much like the type of elite pass rushing outside linebackers Alabama is accustomed to having. Christian Miller is a similar player likely to fit in at the Sam linebacker. Anfernee Jennings looked good in limited opportunities last season and should fill in as the new Jack linebacker. Lots of talent here, but mostly unproven. The inside linebackers are Shaun Dion Hamilton and Rashaan Evans. They are proven. They are good. They are a problem for opposing offenses. In the secondary, Anthony Averett, Trevon Diggs, and Tony Brown look to handle the corner and Star/nickel duties. Averett and Brown are relatively proven commodities, but Diggs is a bit of an unknown. He's getting an opportunity at corner due to the fact that the Alabama staff is looking at Minkah Fitzpatrick at strong safety, a role he could excel in. If Diggs were to struggle, it's possible Fitzpatrick could be moved back to corner, but that would likely move unproven safety Deionte Thompson to strong safety. Ronnie Harrison returns to man the free safety spot, where he is a strong early candidate for All-SEC honors and maybe even national recognition. Redshirt senior Andy Pappanastos is the likely new placekicker, and JK Scott returns to provide one last season of booming punts. Trevon Diggs is the early leader to handle both punt and kickoff return duties.
  • Kentucky: Kentucky is one of the few programs to have released an official preseason depth chart, so this is one situation where there is really no guesswork. Stephen Johnson will continue to be the top man at quarterback, and while the Wildcats would love to see him progress further, he wasn't bad last year, passing for 2,037 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions while also running for 327 yards and 3 touchdowns. Benny Snell returns at running back having rushed for 1,091 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. Sihiem King will be called upon to provide a strong #2 runner to Snell, but he's thus far done relatively little. Starting receivers Dorian Baker and Garrett Johnson return, but it's hard to oversell the loss of Jeff Badet as a graduate transfer to Oklahoma. Badet averaged 21.6 yards per receptions last year and caught four touchdowns. Tavin Richardson and Charles Walker were listed as the other likely starters at receiver, but a couple of true freshmen in Isaiah Epps and Josh Ali have impressed early. When the Wildcats use a tight end, C.J. Conrad is expected to retain his starting job, shadowed by Greg Hart as he was last season. Offensive tackles Cole Mosier and Kyle Meadows return along with right guard Nick Haynes and center Bunchy Stallings. Haynes is facing some stiff competition from tackle turned guard George Asafo-Adjei, who would be the third starter at least six feet tall if he does win the job. Left tackle Cole Mosier is also facing some competition at left tackle as Landon Young, a lengthy sophomore, has been getting significant first team reps as well. Logan Stenberg, who was named to the freshman All-SEC team, is set to take over at left guard after playing in 12 games for the Wildcats last year as a key reserve. This could be a very good offense if the receivers can come through for Johnson. The defensive line for Kentucky currently consists of starters Adrian Middleton, Naquez Pringle, and T.J. Carter. Middleton and Pringle are returning starters from last season with Carter stepping up following graduations and dismissals ahead of him. Josh Allen returns at strongside linebacker after posting 62 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and 7 sacks last season. Hybrid DE/OLB Denzil Ware is back as well after posting 70 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, and 5.5 sacks himself. The inside linebackers were two of the top three tacklers for Kentucky last year, combining for 185 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, and 5 sacks. In the secondary, second leading tackler Mike Edwards returns to lead the group at strong safety, joined by returning starters Chris Westry and Derrick Baity at corner (both are 6-3 or taller). Former 4-star recruit Darius West appears poised to finally emerge at free safety after returning from an injury last season. Senior Kendall Randolph is the projected starter at nickel when they go to that look. Sure-legged kicker Austin MacGinnis is back along with punter Grant McKinniss, who will need to display more power this season. Sihiem King and Charles Walker should continue to handle kickoff and punt return duties respectively. 
  • Southern Miss: The Golden Eagles said goodbye to last year's starting quarterback Nick Mullens, who signed a UDFA contract with San Francisco. They appear poised to turn the keys to the offense over to JUCO transfer Kwadra Griggs, although last year's #2 Keon Howard continues to compete for the job. Griggs has talent, but he's far from a finished product, showing severe accuracy issues at times throughout his JUCO stay. The same has been true of Howard, however, so Griggs, the bigger, stronger quarterback, looks like the current answer. Regardless of who wins the job, expect them to lean heavily on senior running back Ito Smith, who has piled up 3,2123 yards and 29 touchdowns on the ground while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Smith is also an accomplished receiver, catching 100 passes for 1,050 yards and 5 touchdowns.  Junior Tez Parks and senior George Payne will help to carry the load along with Smith. Top returning receiver Allenzae Staggers is back and should provide a nice security blanket to the quarterback. He will be joined by Korey Robertson and Isaiah Jones, who combined last year for 57 receptions, 768 yards, and 5 touchdowns. At tight end, Julian Allen and Jay'Shawn Washington will man the duties. The tackles have SEC size, and right tackle Ty Pollard has a year as the starter under his belt. Devin Farrior has plenty of experience and should be a steadying presence in the middle of the offensive line as he is the only player returning with more than 13 starts under his belt. The Eagles offensive line has to be viewed as a question mark at best. Defensive end Xavier Thigpen will lead the defensive line as the only returning player who started every game last season. The tackles combined for 11 starts last year, and projected starting end Paxton Schrimsher had no starts and limited production last season. Sherrod Ruff was productive last year in mostly a reserve role at linebacker and he will now look to take hold of a starter's job. Jeremy Sangster is the other likely linebacker, although he had a similar season to Schrimsher last year. Travarius Moore and Demetrius Market are the projected new safeties. Moore had two interceptions last year in limited play, but Market was considerably less productive. Nickel Picasso Nelson is back and should be a leader for the secondary after finishing third last year in tackles. Starting corner Cornell Armstrong is back and will be joined by part-time starter Curtis Mikell. The projected starters in the secondary combined for 7 interceptions last season. JUCO transfer Tyler Flathau is expected to take over the punting duties and will compete with returning placekicker Parker Shaunfield for the kickoff duties. Tez Parks and Allenzae Staggers are likely to maintain their jobs returnign kickoffs and punts respectively. 
  • Missouri: Mizzou fans are looking for anything to be positive about after a 4-8 season that saw them only win two SEC games, and there are some reasons to expect improvement. Most of that positivity has to be centered around the returning talent on offense, beginning with quarterback Drew Lock, who needs to improve on his completion percentage but otherwise had a good season under center, passing for nearly 3,400 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just 10 interceptions. Lock keeps getting better, and last year he added the ability to take advantage of open field with his legs when the defense leaves him room to run rushing for 123 yards and a touchdown. At running back, Missouri appears to be in good hands with Damarea Crockett and Ish Witter, who combined for 1,812 yards and 16 touchdowns on 315 carries, with Crockett averaging an impressive 6.9 yards per carry. The top four receivers return this season, having combined for 152 receptions, 2,341 yards, and 15 touchdowns. Kendall Blanton is back as the starting tight end after catching 16 passes for 161 yards and 3 touchdowns in his first year as the starter, and the 6-6, 265-pounder is likely to only improve. The running backs weren't much of a factor in the passing game last year. Jonah Dubinski steps in to start at center after starting the last two games there last season. Tackles Paul Adams and Tyler Howell return after being part of an OL that allowed the fewest tackles for loss in the nation and fewest sacks allowed in the SEC. Guards Adam Ploudre and Kevin Pendleton are also back after garning the bulk of the starts at guard a year ago. Bottom line, any defense had better be darn good to handle this offense. Defensively, there aren't many sure things beyond Anthony Sherrils, Marcell Frazier, Terry Buckner Jr., Cale Garrett, Eric Beisel, and Brandon Lee. That's a defensive end, a defensive tackle, a safety, and three linebackers who are probably sure things to start. The secondary could see the faces change week-to-week, and redshirt freshman defensive end Tre Williams may ultimately take the other end spot that is currently projected to be handled by walk-on Jordan Harold. A.J. Logan is the favorite for the other defensive tackle spot, but Rashad Brandon will push him for the job. I don't see this defense getting better. If anything, it might be worse, which means the offense either has to be even better to reach a .500 season. It's possible, but right now I think 5-7 might be the safer bet. They have winnable non-conference games, so if they find 2 SEC wins again a bowl game might be in the cards. 
  • Louisiana State: One of the big questions each of the last several seasons for LSU has been the quarterback. This season, the answer appears to be fairly definitive unless the true freshman Myles Brennan pulls of a coup. Danny Etling was the starter for the Tigers for ten games last season, throwing for 11 touchdowns against 5 interceptions while completing 59.5% of his passes. Etling also ran for a touchdown last year. While he's not exactly the most dynamic of passers, he proved efficient last season. However, if LSU is going to take a step forward from last season's 8-4 record, they need better than efficient at the quarterback position, and Myles Brennan is a dynamic passer and capable runner, completing 67.3% of his passes over three seasons in high school for 15,027 yards, 165 touchdowns, and just 25 interceptions while running for 1,141 yards and 23 touchdowns on 188 carries. Brennan has impressed so far in camp, and if he ends up being the starter the offense of the Bayou Bengals could be deadly. At running back, Derrius Guice is so good he became a household name while sharing carries with Leonard Fournette. Darrel Williams is back as well after serving as a very capable third man for the last couple seasons. Speaking of Fournette, his younger brother Lanard has been making strides to earn more carries in camp along with Nick Brossette. Unless the offensive line collapses, the Tigers are dangerous on the ground. Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural are gone, leaving D.J. Chark as the most proven receiver for the Tigers. Russell Gage looks likely to start alongside him at this time, but elite defensive back recruit JaCoby Stevens has moved from safety to receiver and he's certainly capable there as evidenced by his 34 receptions for 689 yards and 12 touchdowns as a senior in high school. LSU is struggling right now to find wide receivers, which isn't good news regardless of who the quarterback might be. Foster Moreau may have to be a big part of the equation as far as sparking the passing game is concerned from his tight end spot. Soooo...about that offensive line that I said something about collapsing...it's not looking great right now. Will Clapp is the most proven offensive lineman, and he's moving from guard to center this season. K.J. Malone was the starting left tackle last season, and he looked very good as a run blocker and serviceable as a pass blocker. Beyond those two, there's pretty much little to no experience and most of that offensive line will be unproven. Quality depth also appears to be an issue. How about that defense though, right? Well, Arden Key is still in limbo to some degree as he recovers from a shoulder surgery. Greg Gilmore is back to man the nose tackle spot, and Christian LaCouture is back from injury to man one of the end spots and Frank Herron is expected to step up and take hold of the other spot. If Key is healthy, he should man one of the outside linebacker spots with Corey Thompson and K'Lavon Chaisson competing for the other spot. Devin White and Donnie Alexander are the current favorites to man the inside spots, but keep an eye on Jacob Phillips to make a run at one of those spots as a true freshman. Donte Jackson returns at one of the corner spots, and Kevin Toliver II returns to health and should take over the other starting spot. John Battle should handle the starting duties at strong safety after starting seven games a year ago, but there is still plenty of concern over how the Tigers will replace Jamal Adams. If freshman Grant Delpit, who has continued to encroach on a starting job, can take one, look for him to handle the strong safety role and Battle to move over to free, which might be the best case scenario. Kickoff specialist Cameron Gamble returns as does punter Josh Growden. The placekicker job is open, but look for redshirt Connor Culp to handle the duties. Donte Jackson may add punt return duties to his already existing kick return duties.
  • Vanderbilt: Kyle Shurmur is going to be the starting quarterback again, but Vandy fans hope he'll be a better version of himself. He has talent, but he's thrown 14 touchdowns to 13 interceptions so far in his career and has yet to surpass 3,000 yards passing through 18 starts. In Shurmur's defense, his receivers haven't been great up to this point, but his top 9 receivers are back from last season so there's reason for optimism. Vanderbilt's top two rushers return from last season, and they're a pretty good duo, combining for 347 carries, 1,732 yards, and 23 touchdowns. Ralph Webb is a dynamic open-field runner with the toughness to run between the tackles, while Khari Blasingame is a big back who will fearlessly run it up the middle. The right side of Vanderbilt's offensive line returns, but they will have new starters at center, left guard, and left tackle. How well those spots get filled will have a lot to say about how well the offense performs. The nose tackle and one defensive end are back. Jonathan Wynn and Nifae Lealao were solid but unspectacular last season. Dare Odeyingbo was solid last season and will be the top candidate to replace sack leader Adam Butler at the other end spot. Oren Burks is the only regular starter back at linebacker. There are a lot of questions surrounding this group as Charles Wright was the best of the new starters with 13 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss. Corner Tre Herndon returns as do starting safeties LaDarius Wiley and Ryan White. Arnold "Tre" Tarpley is also a strong safety candidate who has been very productive when on the field. Sophomore corner Joejuan Williams is expected to step in for the departed Torren McGaster, who signed a UDFA deal with the Bengals.  Placekicker Tommy Openshaw is back as is punter Sam Loy. Both were solid last year. Kalija Lipscomb returns to handle punt returns, but finding a replacement for departed kick returner Darrius Sims may prove a tall task. Ralph Webb may be the best option if the team is willing to risk him on special teams.

Friday, August 4, 2017

Week One Camp Wrap

If you are here for drama, that's not what I deal in. I don't really do rumors either. These are the notes I've heard or things I've seen summarized. Simple, straightforward, and drama-free.

Quarterbacks - Quinten Dormady certainly seems to be the favorite to win the job. He appears to be the player most consistently working with the top center candidates and the guy who goes first through drills. He also appears to get the bulk of Mike Canales' attention. That isn't to say Guarantano won't play early in the season or that he won't be utilized in certain packages throughout the season, but it is to say that I think the team may unofficially have it's starter. Will McBride continues to show a good arm and more maturity than one might expect from a freshman. Despite his ranking last cycle, he looks like a steal for the Vols.

Running backs - Despite the rave reviews for Tim Jordan, don't think for a second that means that Ty Chandler or Trey Coleman aren't impressive in their own rights. All three freshmen have looked capable of helping the team this season despite their youth. Coleman is a big back with good footwork. Jordan looks impressive and goes through drills with confidence. Chandler is ridiculously explosive and picks things up quickly. All three are very good receivers to boot. Speaking of good receivers, John Kelly looks like a slot receiver when it comes time to catch the ball but he also leaves no doubt that he is very much a running back. He is also the clear leader of the group. Carlin Fils-aime has looked good in his own right, but his explosion that he showed in high school is still something that needs to materialize.

Wide receivers - Marquez Callaway is looking like an early favorite for a starting job alongside Tyler Byrd and Jauan Jennings. That's not to take anything away from the other receivers, because among the players who have looked very good are Josh Smith, Brandon Johnson, Josh Palmer, Jordan Murphy, and Latrell Williams. If nothing else, it looks like Tennessee won't have any problem putting together a strong rotation at receiver. They are young as a group, but they haven't made too many terrible mistakes and they've done a pretty good job overall of securing the football against the air. Butch has had them go toe-to-toe against the defensive backs today and they split the drill with the defenders, but the wins the offense didn't get were due to very good coverage rather than any failings of the receivers.

Tight end - Early returns seem to suggest that Ethan Wolf has had his best offseason and his focus and performance is better than ever. Jakob Johnson has turned the corner after spending time working with the wide receivers in the offseason to improve his hands. Eli Wolf and Austin Pope look capable of helping the team out. However, the biggest surprise might be how fluid and athletic freshman LaTrell Bumphus has looked. It's not a stretch to believe he could be the heir apparent to Wolf and Johnson after this season as he simply looks like everything you could hope for from an SEC tight end. That said, he's still a bit raw and this next year will be important in his development as he works to master the craft of playing tight end.

Offensive line - Brett Kendrick, Drew Richmond, and Trey Smith seem to have starting jobs all but locked down at right tackle, right guard, and left tackle, but there is a very real pair of competitions for the starting jobs at left guard and center. Jashon Robertson and Coleman Thomas appear to be the likely candidates at center, although others are getting work there, perhaps most notably redshirt freshman Ryan Johnson. At left guard, the candidates are clear in Jack Jones and Venzell Boulware. What's less clear is who is most likely to win the job. I don't think either of these competitions will wrap up easily and could keep going long into camp. Jack Jones did miss practice Sunday, but he's been out there every practice since. Kendrick, Smith, and Marcus Tatum missed the first practice in pads, but it didn't sound especially serious as two of the three might return as soon as tomorrow. Robertson seems to be the top option to replace Smith at right guard if necessary. Chance Hall will redshirt this season, which was hinted at previously with his second opinion. Rarely does that mean anything good.

Defensive line - Most of the news here is fairly good. Matthew Butler has gotten looks at every position on the defensive line and looked capable of helping at each one. Shy Tuttle isn't doing everything but is going through some position drills. Kyle Phillips looks the healthiest he's been since arriving on campus, and the same is true of Kahlil McKenzie. Jonathan Kongbo is becoming a leader both in his words and actions. Darrell Taylor is still a freak athlete, but now he's also very much a defensive end. Kendal Vickers has looked very good. Quay Picou can help the team this year. Deandre Johnson looks the part. All-in-all, good news across the defensive line.

Linebacker - Camp started with news the fans really didn't want to hear, with Darrin Kirkland Jr. and Daniel Bituli out for the first week. They are well on their way to being back and could well be full go by next week. Quart'e Sapp is looking good in his return. Cortez McDowell looks like a different player after dropping some weight. Dillon Bates is in the mix to potentially see playing time at strongside linebacker. Austin Smith is an athletic freak at outside linebacker. Shanon Reid and Will Ignont look very good for freshmen. Again, mostly good news across the board.

Defensive backs - I know I'm sounding like a broken record, but again the news is pretty good. Evan Berry, Nigel Warrior, Todd Kelly Jr., and Micah Abernathy have things locked down at safety, and freshmen Theo Jackson and Maleik Gray have looked good. Jackson is a more natural safety than Gray right now, but Gray had been a high school linebacker so that's to be expected. Things are looking up at corner, with both real competition taking place and old liabilities looking improved. Justin Martin is looking better and better. Emmanuel Moseley is doing well despite performing in a non-contact jersey. Marquill Osborne, Baylen Buchanan, Cheyenne Labruzza, and DJ Henderson are performing well, as is Shaq Wiggins (to nobody's surprise). Terrell Bailey and Shawn Shamburger have flashes here and there, but among the freshmen corners Labruzza has a clear edge.

Special teams - Theo Jackson is pushing to be the top option at punt returner, pushing previously presumed top dog Marquez Callaway. Both can flash in that role. Evan Berry is the kick returner, obviously. Trevor Daniel is the punter, of course. Aaron Medley is supposedly being pushed by freshman Brent Cimaglia. I'm not sure how much I believe that. It strikes me as coach speak for the most part, but perhaps there's a nugget of truth in there.

Coaches - We've all seen how the staff changes have helped in recruiting, but the early returns on the field have been pretty positive as well. Hoke and Warren have supposedly been huge upgrades on defense. Walt Wells is a teacher as well as a coach on the offensive line, and the receivers look a lot better under Beard. Mike Canales seems to have the quarterbacks performing well. As far as injuries and the like are concerned, Butch Jones is being fairly forthcoming, perhaps even more than most coaches this time of year. His gag order with the media hasn't really come into play too much.

All things considered, so far so good in camp. There haven't been any serious new injuries, it seems. Mostly some minor dings that have prompted the staff to hold guys out in order to keep a minor injury from getting any worse. I think if the season started tomorrow, the only guys who wouldn't play would probably be Shy Tuttle and Chance Hall, and that's where you'd like to be since neither are new injuries.

Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Recruiting Wrap, August 2nd

It's been a busy week in recruiting, and I guess I should start off with Tennessee's three newest commitments, Tanner Antonutti, Trey Dean, and Matthew Flint.

Antonutti is a 6-5, 260 pound offensive tackle from Nashville who is making the move to offensive line from tight end as he continues to outgrow his old position. Antonutti is very much a guy the staff took because of what he can become rather than what he is now. He lacks the athleticism to play tight end collegiately, but he brings great athleticism to the offensive line along with a good mentality for blocking and plenty of ability in that regard. He shows flashes as both a run and pass blocker in dealing with defensive ends and linebackers, and although he is a project he's a project schools were becoming increasingly interested in taking on as evidenced by offers from Louisville, LSU, Mississippi State, and Missouri among others. Tennessee had previously been hesitant to accept a commitment from him, but once it became increasingly likely that he would land with another SEC team if he wasn't in Knoxville, they needed to bring in the life-long Vol fan or risk dealing with him for four years.

Trey Dean was a player who had at least been offered by many of the big name programs, including Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Oregon, Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas, and on and on. His commitment wasn't necessarily one people were expecting at this time, but it does sound like some programs may have been slow-playing things with Dean while Tennessee was all in with him. Dean plays a lot of corner in high school, but he projects as a safety in college. He is a long player at 6-2 and is a rangy safety who is likely to project as a free safety long-term. He doesn't have particularly soft hands, so he tends to pile up break ups rather than interceptions. He is a strong tackler who can deliver big hits at times. He could also be a candidate to play nickel and maybe even boundary corner in a pinch.

As for Matthew Flint, Tennessee has been interested in him for quite a while. A natural athlete, Flint plays both wide receiver and outside linebacker/inside linebacker/safety for his Madison County High team, performing fairly well at both. In fact, Flint recorded 85 tackles, five sacks, and three forced fumbles last season on defense while he also caught 28 passes for 437 yards and nine touchdowns. He ran an electronically timed 4.57 forty at The Opening regionals and he reported that he ran a sub-4.5 forty during a trip to Ole Miss. He has the speed and ability to excel in coverage, is a solid yet unspectacular tackler, and performs better in the box than in the open field. He uses his speed to make plays for negative yardage. He does have some weaknesses, of course. At 6-0.5 and 213, he will obviously need to add weight and it's currently unclear how that added weight will impact his speed long-term. He also needs to add pop to his tackling. Despite his five sacks, he hasn't been asked to blitz much at this point, so that is a skill set he will have to develop. All-in-all, he's not that dissimilar from Jalen Reeves-Maybin coming out of high school, although he is obviously lacking the fanfare of the current Detroit Lion.

So where does that leave the class? At this point, it appears that Tennessee will only be able to take 23 this cycle, and the additions of Antonutti, Dean, and Flint bring the Vols to 20 in the class. How they will use their remaining three scholarships will be worth watching. Tennessee is still very much interested in adding another corner to the class, specifically Jaycee Horn. I was also of the belief that they would like to add another defensive end and they are definitely set on adding another wide receiver. However, the staff could have a decision to make if Jerome Carvin or even Jordan Davis want into the class. Are they willing to burn someone already in the class to do that? If they can land Horn, Carvin, and Davis will they be content to only take two receivers? Is Carvin still a take at this point or do the coaches believe there are bigger needs? I don't have the answers to that just yet, but perhaps I will next week when I do my next recruiting wrap.

At present, the 2018 Vols recruiting class consists of the following:

2 quarterbacks
2 running backs
2 wide receivers
1 tight end
3 offensive linemen
5 defensive linemen
1 linebacker
4 defensive backs

Of Tennessee's current 20 commitments, 9 currently plan to be early enrollees and at least a few others are exploring the option. There's a chance that half or more of the Vols signing class next year will already be on campus come January. Here's hoping for a drama-free signing day with a near top ten class coming on board.