Saturday, December 22, 2018

Early Signing Period Evaluation

Tennessee had needs. Basically, they needed more talent everywhere. It's probably fair to say that the early signing period gave them a pretty big start on satisfying those needs. Of their 22 current commitments, they have now signed 19 of them. They've also secured an interesting transfer that will be discussed. After breaking down the signees and transfer, I'll take a look at remaining needs and targets heading towards national signing day in February.

QB Brian Maurer, 6-3, 184, 4-star, early enrollee: Maurer looks very much like the type of quarterback Vol fans have been begging to land, even while they had Joshua Dobbs. He can throw, he can run, and he has prototypical size for the position. Maurer was an Elite 11 finalist and an ESPN 4-star. For his high school career, he had 7,693 passing yards with a 60.7% completion percentage, throwing for 64 touchdowns against 35 interceptions and 12.5 yards per completion. He also ran for 905 yards and 14 touchdowns on 169 carries, good for 5.4 yards per carry. His senior campaign was by far his best, throwing for 3,572 yards, 34 touchdowns, and just 12 interceptions while completing 65.4% of his passes and running for 466 yards and 6 touchdowns on 80 carries, good for 5.8 yards per carry. Maurer is a bit like Aaron Rodgers in that he is a pass-first quarterback who uses his legs to escape trouble and create positive plays when things begin to break down. As an early enrollee, he'll get a jump on competing with J.T. Shrout and returning starter Jarrett Guarantano. NFL comparison: Colt McCoy, Washington Redskins

RB Eric Gray, 5-10, 195, 4-star, early enrollee: Where to begin with Eric Gray's career? Well, probably the rushing numbers of 8,187 yards and 124 touchdowns on 863 carries, good for a career yard per carry average of 9.5 yards. Don't worry though because Gray isn't a one-trick pony, also recording 31 receptions for 603 yards and 8 touchdowns (19.5 yards per catch) and 30 returns (8 kickoff and 22 punt) for 460 yards and a touchdown (23.3 yards per return on kickoffs, 12.5 yards per punt return). Gray is the epitome of the term all-purpose back, but he won't blow anyone away with his forty time (4.57). That isn't the strength of his running style, despite having enough speed to break big runs. His strength comes in the form of his quickness in changing direction and making the small movements to make tacklers miss on getting a clean hit. He has more power than one would expect, using his compact frame to gain leverage to push forward for additional yardage. Eric Gray's athleticism and running style will remind Vol fans of another beloved running back in Alvin Kamara, with both coming out of high school with similar testing results and builds. Like Kamara, he will need to add onto his frame in order to maximize his talent at the collegiate level. NFL comparison: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

WR Ramel Keyton, 6-3, 185, 4-star, early enrollee: The season that might have been for Keyton as a senior, but injury cut things short. Even so, he has some spectacular career numbers as he prepares to enroll at Tennessee, finishing with 184 receptions for 3,353 yards and 33 touchdowns, most of it done in three seasons. For his career, he has averaged 18.2 yards per catch. He's not the quickest receiver you'll ever see, registering a 4.62 electronically timed forty, but he has excellent hands and plucks the ball out of the air. He can make plays downfield, but he isn't necessarily a guy who racks up a ton of yards after the catch. Every team needs a sure-handed receiver to make the catches that pick up first downs and touchdowns, and that is absolutely what Keyton is. NFL comparison: Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

WR Jerrod Means, 6-2, 212, 3-star, May enrollee: Means went from reasonably well-recruited to disappearing from everyone's radar with a single injury as a senior. However, he was averaging 24.2 yards per catch when he got hurt, so how he could fall off the radar as much as he did is a little difficult to understand. The Vols were looking to add speed, and when Means camped with them last summer, he registered a 4.43 forty. Over his last two seasons of high school, he had almost 900 yards and 11 touchdowns. He's raw, but he has the size and athleticism most programs covet. It may take a couple of years before he begins to show returns, but he's a gamble the staff felt was worth taking for the potential payoff. NFL comparison: Tre'Quan Smith, New Orleans Saints

TE Jackson Lowe, 6-5, 242, 4-star, early enrollee: Lowe is the type of tight end Pruitt was begging for last seasons. Dominick Wood-Anderson showed flashes of being that guy, but Lowe might be that fully realized. He has elite length and enough athleticism to make big plays from the tight end position while also having the size and skill set to handle his blocking duties. His last two seasons of high school saw him collect 50 receptions for 809 yards and 12 touchdowns. At the risk of succumbing to the hype machine, I'll avoid comparing him to a certain former Tennessee and NFL great at the position. That said, he certainly has the look of a player who could come close to that lofty comparison. NFL comparison: Zach Miller, Chicago Bears

TE Sean Brown, 6-5, 250, 3-star, May enrollee: Brown starred on both offense and defense in high school, but for the Vols he will be primarily a blocking tight end with the ability to make catches when called upon. Brown is very much an in-line blocker in the mold of tight ends past. He has shown the ability to make plays as a receiver, but it isn't necessarily his predominant skill set. He slid to left tackle for a few games as a senior, illustrating his talent as a blocker. He has good athleticism as he also plays basketball. He'll probably be a redshirt candidate next season, but he will become a key part of the tight end rotation for the Vols down the line. NFL comparison: Dion Sims, Chicago Bears

OL Wanya Morris, 6-6, 311, 5-star, early enrollee: Morris was the highest ranked signing of the early period, possessing a unique combination of size and athleticism. In fact, he moves like a big man on the basketball court rather than a 300+ pound offensive lineman. He registered 73 pancake blocks as a senior while paving the way for an offense that rushed for nearly 200 yards per game, helping his team to a 10-3 final record and the state quarterfinals of the playoff. Morris still needs to get stronger, and the idea that he will add additional bulk as he continues to develop is a reasonable one. However, Morris has the ideal athleticism and length for the left tackle position and could become an All-American caliber player at the position. NFL comparison: Lane Johnson, Philadelphia Eagles

OL Chris Akporoghene, 6-5, 294, 4-star, early enrollee: Raw but talented pretty much sums up Akporoghene. Originally starting his career playing in the state of Tennessee, he eventually moved down to Florida to play for IMG Academy. A powerful run blocker, he's still working on becoming the pass blocker that the Vols will need him to become before he can earn a starting role. He has good length and is further along than one might expect of a player who only has three seasons of ball under his belt. NFL comparison: Ben Garland, Atlanta Falcons

OL Jackson Lampley, 6-4, 300, 4-star, May enrollee: The son of former Vol offensive lineman Brad Lampley was the longest commitment of the Vols and never showed signs of wavering. He's among the nation's best guards in the 2019 class, paving the way for four different rushers who put up at least 250 yards on the ground in 2018. He's a road grader, pushing defensive linemen around like they're barely there. He has good feet and can handle his business in pass blocking most of the time. I'd give him a good chance to earn a starting job if he were able to enroll in January, but it will be tougher to do so coming in for the summer. Still, the Vols have plenty of need and Lampley has the talent to push the starters right away. NFL comparison: T.J. Lang, Detroit Lions

OL Melvin McBride, 6-2, 300, 3-star, May enrollee: Prior to his sophomore season in high school, he had exclusively played basketball, so his athleticism is spectacular. Paved the way for a dynamic 2017 offense and an effective but less spectacular offense in 2018 that went to the state championship game. A powerful run blocker with excellent pass blocking, McBride can play guard or center, and which he ends up playing at the next level is still up in the air right now. He's very raw, having played so little football up to this point. He likely won't be called upon right away, so he'll need to take advantage of his opportunity to develop. NFL comparison: Rodney Hudson, Oakland Raiders

DL Savion Williams, 6-4, 315, 4-star, May enrollee: Williams is a big body that one might naturally think will land at nose guard, but he also has the athleticism to line up at the defensive end/3-technique defensive tackle spot. As a sophomore at Lackawanna College, he registered 33 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, and a sack in ten games. The #1 JUCO defensive tackle in the class, he appears to have the tools to start immediately for the Vols despite not enrolling early. The Vols had three departing seniors on the defensive line, so the opportunity is there for immediate playing time. NFL comparison: Montravius Adams, Green Bay Packers

DL Darel Middleton, 6-7, 290, 3-star, May enrollee: He was committed to the Vols at one point in high school before having to redirect to the JUCO ranks, growing from a high school tight end into a future college defensive lineman. Despite being relatively new to the position, he registered 29 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, and a sack for the eventual NJCAA national champs. His coach at East Mississippi CC has raved about his defensive end/tight end level of athleticism at his size. In the Vols 3-4 defense, end is his likely landing spot unless he continues to add weight and shifts to the nose guard spot. NFL comparison: Calais Campbell, Jacksonville Jaguars

DL Elijah Simmons, 6-2, 344, 3-star, May enrollee: Talk about an athletic freak. Already ridiculously large, videos have been circulating of Simmons showing his ability to dunk the basketball and grab the rim and he returned an interception last season 55 yards for a touchdown. He also had 141 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks during his high school career. He also forced a fumble and recovered one last season, easily his best of his high school career. Although he clearly has great athleticism already, Pruitt is wanting him to trim down further to about 325 to improve his stamina and explosiveness. Simmons is a prototypical nose guard and it's unlikely he'll play anywhere but the nose. NFL comparison: Star Lotulelei, Buffalo Bills

LB Roman Harrison, 6-2, 240, 4-star, May enrollee: Last season, the Vols weren't necessarily consistent in rushing the passer, and those unfortunate games when nobody was applying pressure often aligned with the Vols worst losses of the year. Darrell Taylor showed flashes of how good he can be, but if he's going to become Batman for that pass rush he needs a Robin. Jonathan Kongbo looked to be making progress in that regard but suffered a season-ending injury. With Taylor back, it's time to bolster the pass rush at outside linebacker, and the Vols have turned to Harrison to help in that regard. Why Harrison? Well, he often was forced to play nose tackle in high school and still ended up with 188 tackles, 50 tackles for loss, and 21 sacks despite being an undersized interior lineman. He is a high-motor, aggressive defender with the athleticism to torture offenses. At the Vols camp, he registered a 4.6 forty and a 38-inch vertical. He will join Jordan Allen, the redshirted J.J. Peterson, and fellow signee Quavaris Crouch in trying to bolster the pass rush in 2019. NFL comparison: Jordan Jenkins, New York Jets

DB Jaylen McCollough, 6-0, 194, 4-star, early enrollee: Every team needs an enforcer at one of their safety spots, and McCollough is definitely that. He's not the fastest safety, but what he lacks in speed he makes up for in instincts. As a senior, he registered 77 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, and 6 passes defended despite missing four games. His father was coached by Charles Kelly at Jacksonville State when both were there, no doubt helping the Vols in securing the services of the big hitting safety. Tennessee is losing safeties Micah Abernathy and Todd Kelly Jr., so there is an opportunity for early playing time in the secondary. McCollough certainly looks the part of a candidate to compete for one of the starting jobs. NFL comparison: Keanu Neal, Atlanta Falcons

DB Tyus Fields, 5-10, 190, 4-star, early enrollee: Fields was a big recruiting win for the Vols. His father, Mark Fields Sr., was an NFL linebacker for 9 seasons and a two-time Pro Bowler and his older brother Mark Fields Jr. is a senior corner for Clemson. Fields played mostly safety at the high school level, accumulating 195 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, a sack, and 7 interceptions. Prior to last season, he also handled a fair bit of the return duties, accounting for 488 return yards and a touchdown on both a punt and kickoff return. Fields isn't the biggest defensive back, but he can arguably play all five spots in the secondary, bringing to mind a former SEC defensive back with a particularly memorable nickname. Look for Fields to get his first look at the nickel spot. NFL comparison: Tyrann Mathieu, Houston Texans

DB Warren Burrell, 6-0, 170, 4-star, early enrollee: Tennessee made it a point to look for some length at corner in the last class. Burrell fits the same mold. Over the last three seasons, he's had at least 85 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 8 interceptions, 14 passes defended, 2 fumble recoveries, and a blocked kick. He tossed in a safety for good measure. Burrell had a number of notable offers, including Florida, Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia. He doesn't blow you away with his measurables, but all he does is make plays he's put himself in position for. He can easily excel at the college level, but his athleticism will have to progress before he'll be able to compete at an NFL level. NFL comparison: Jalen 'Teez' Tabor (Jauan Jenning's son), Detroit Lions

ATH Quavaris Crouch, 6-2, 230, 4-star, early enrollee: Crouch is the definition of an athlete, rushing for 3,246 yards and 33 touchdowns while also adding on 48 tackles and 14 sacks during his junior season before missing most of his senior season with an injury. Tennessee has talked about their interest in adding a bigger running back, but the need to improve the pass rush has the staff looking at Crouch as an outside linebacker to begin his career. It's certainly not impossible that he could either play both ways or ultimately end up at running back, but it's hard to envision Crouch not being productive at linebacker with his athleticism, whether that's at outside or inside linebacker. NFL comparison: Myles Jack, Jacksonville Jaguars

ATH Aaron Beasley, 6-1, 220, 3-star, May enrollee: Another true athlete, the last two seasons saw Beasley account for 3,710 rushing yards and 54 touchdowns as well as 116 tackles and 6 interceptions as well as two fumble recoveries. Like Crouch, he too would fit the mold of a bigger running back, but he will get his first look at safety where the Vols need to replace the two departing seniors. While he can certainly play the part of an enforcer, he also has good enough hands and coverage skills to hold his own in the open field. Like Crouch, a move to offense is certainly not impossible, but Beasley could also shift to inside linebacker if his athleticism doesn't translate to the next level. NFL comparison: Mark Barron, Los Angeles Rams

Transfer DL Aubrey Solomon, 6-3, 295, formerly at Michigan: A nice surprise during the early signing period was the announcement from former 5-star defensive lineman Solomon that he would be joining the Vols. While it remains to be seen whether or not he'll be eligible next season, Solomon had a solid freshman campaign with 18 tackles and 2 tackles for loss in 13 games played but had a tougher time of it during an injury-shortened sophomore season with 6 tackles in 5 games. Solomon has the athleticism to play the defensive end/3-technique tackle role, but he could also add some weight to move inside. If he's eligible for 2018, he will immediately have a chance to earn a starting job. If not, he has a redshirt available and will no doubt use the season to get ready to take the SEC by storm. NFL comparison: Tim Jernigan, Philadelphia Eagles

COMMITTED BUT UNSIGNED

DL LeDarrius Cox, 6-4, 305, 3-star, May enrollee: Cox committed to the Vols back in April and despite keeping his options open has remained with the Vols throughout the process. With his size, the Vols will have to fight to keep him in the fold, but given that he fits at a position of need the Vols will do everything in their power to bring him on board come national signing day.

LB Lakia Henry, 6-0, 225, 4-star, May enrollee: Henry is the #1 JUCO linebacker in the cycle, and he's being pursued like it with the Vols having to fend off Florida State and Arkansas among what will no doubt be others soon enough. Henry would immediately provide much-needed competition at inside linebacker, but the Vols will have their hands full to keep ahold of him.

DB Anthony Harris, 6-2, 171, 4-star, May enrollee: Harris was a pleasant surprise when he committed back in June and he hasn't wavered much, but there has been some suggestion of possible academic concerns. There hasn't been much competition for him yet, but with the available unsigned talent limited it's likely many more will begin to look his way.

REMAINING NEEDS

Defensive end: While the defensive line signees are great so far, there hasn't been a clear replacement for departing senior Kyle Phillips. There isn't much left unsigned at strongside defensive end so the JUCO ranks or transfer market may be where the Vols have to go.

Linebacker: Inside and outside, potentially, although the staff could decide they are done on the edge with Crouch and Harrison. Khris Bogle may be a long-shot at outside linebacker, but he's certainly someone the Vols would be hard-pressed to turn away. There are a few more options for inside linebacker, including 4-star Henry To'oto'o and in-state talent Christopher Russell.

Corner: Either the Vols will have to make in-roads with someone they haven't really been meaningfully involved with up to this point or gamble on trying to land Jammie Robinson, a projected safety with corner potential. The best option on the board may be unsigned long-time LSU commit Maurice Hampton who attends the same high school as current Vols MaLeik Gatewood and Drew Richmond. They could attempt to pursue Kaiir Elam, a lengthy corner considered a Florida lean, but they would have a lot of work to do there.

Offensive tackle: There isn't a list here. It's Darnell Wright. They are believed to be in the lead for his services and there isn't a realistic alternate target. It's Wright or bust.

Offensive playmaker: This would be more of a luxury if they had the room for it, but the staff would like to add an additional playmaker at wide receiver or running back if they have the room and the right target. Former Oklahoma commit Arjei Henderson is a name that has been bandied about, as has #1 wide receiver in the class, Jadon Haselwood. Neither currently seems likely. Under the radar wideout Dywan Griffin could be a realistic possibility. At running back, it currently appears like a new name would need to emerge, but the staff did uncover a few hidden gems last cycle and could look that way again.

Saturday, December 1, 2018

The Good, Bad, and Ugly of Tennessee Football in 2018

Hopes were high but expectations realistic heading into the 2018 season. A new head coach and staff saw renewed hope for the future, but coming off of a 4-8 campaign, the worst season in program history, fans were just hoping for some improvement. So did improvement come?

Well, the record reflects improvement. While the Vols only improved to 5-7 overall, they won two games in the SEC after going winless in the conference in 2017. Not only did they get a pair of conference wins, but both came over teams ranked in the top 25 at the time. However, a collapse at South Carolina and a pair of no-shows against Vanderbilt and Florida left a terrible taste in fans mouths ultimately in spite of the progress shown. But what do the numbers reflect?

Let's begin with the offensive side of the ball, where the Vols will be looking for a new offensive coordinator after Tyson Helton elected to take the head coaching position at Western Kentucky. Helton has previously served as the offensive coordinator at WKU and was well-liked there, so his return isn't a particular surprise. Vol fans also didn't much care for Helton, blaming offensive shortcomings at times fully on the coordinator, but was it justified? Perhaps not. The Vols saw improvement in yards and points per game over 2017, improving in scoring by 3 points per game and 34.4 yards per game despite an abysmal performance against Vanderbilt that fought hard to undo quite a bit of the progress the team had found. The offense also improved its yards per play from 4.77 to 5.46 yards per play. The Vols also allowed 12 fewer sacks this season and allowed a sack per every 12.9 pass attempts as opposed to one per 9.1 attempts in 2017. The Vols increased their rushing yards, passing yards, rushing and passing touchdowns, and improved their turnover margin. 19.1% of the offensive plays run by the Vols this season went for 10+ yards, up from 18% in 2017. They essentially held steady in carries per tackle for loss allowed at ~4.6 carries per tackle for loss. However, they did show progress in yards per carry (3.7 up from 3.4), yards per pass attempt (7.9 up from 6.5), yards per completion (13.4 up from 11.5), 3rd down conversion percentage (38.22% up from 30.67%), 4th down conversions (45.45% up from 30%), and red zone conversions (88.24% up from 80%). Essentially, the Vols held steady or improved in every offensive category.

Defensively, the results were a little more mixed but largely moved in a positive direction. Yards per play allowed by the Vols this season dropped, along with the yards per game and points per game. The Vols improved in yards per play allowed by reducing the yards allowed from 5.94 to 5.67. The yards per game was a pretty meaningful drop from 412.9 yards per game to 377.4, and they reduced points per game from 29.1 to 27.9. They also increased their interceptions from 5 in 2017 to 9 in 2018, and they also improved their passes defended from 37 to 39. Sticking with the pass defense, they reduced opponents passing yards per completion from 12.6 in 2017 to 12.1 yards in 2018, but they saw increases in passing yards per attempt (7.0 in 2017 to 7.6 in 2018) and passing yards per game allowed (161.7 in 2017 to 222.9 in 2018). Those numbers did coincide with improved run defense. The Vols reduced their rushing yards per game allowed from 251.25 in 2017 to 154.5 yards per game in 2018 while dropping the opponent's yards per carry from 5.4 to 4.1 yards. The Vols also saw improvements in opponent 3rd down conversion from 45.45% to 38.96%, increased their sacks from 22 to 25, and tackles for loss from 61 to 68, but the Vols also saw drops in forced fumbles (15 down to 9), fumble recoveries (10 down to 6), 4th down conversions allowed (40% up to 53.85%), and red zone conversions allowed (90% up to 91.1%). The Vols did manage to slightly reduce the percentage of plays going for 10 or more yards from 19.9% down to 19.5%.

There was a lot of turnover on special teams from 2017 to 2018, but the results remained fairly impressive. The most notable improvements included improving on punt returns from 8 yards per return to 12.8 yards per return and 2 touchdowns (technically as one block was returned for a touchdown), 5 blocked kicks (2 in 2017), improved field goal percentage from 66.7% to 76.9%, a reduction in punt returns allowed from 2.5 to just 0.8 returns per game and in punt return yardage allowed from 7.33 to just 2 yards per return, and holding close to stead in punting and kickoffs despite relying on freshmen to fill those roles. Tennessee has proven to be a strong program in special teams over the past decade and has kept that going.

So what's the verdict on the 2018 season? They showed progress, albeit only incremental progress in some areas. With largely the same team in place for much of the season, the coaching shone through. Unfortunately, sometimes coaching can't overcome a deficit in talent and with a head coach holding his first ever job in that role at any level, there were areas for improvement, both on the roster and in coaching. Ultimately, anyone looking for progress can find it, but anyone looking for negatives will be able to find plenty as well. The 2018 season is what you elect to make of it. It was the first step for a new staff, and it was one that displayed incremental improvements. However, 2019 will need to show a much bigger jump, especially with a more forgiving schedule overall.

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Tennessee's State of Recruiting Update

Before I jump into football, which will have its early signing period beginning in a little over a month starting December 19th, a quick note on basketball, both men's and women's, as well as all other sports to a lesser degree. Basketball's early signing period begins tomorrow, and as of right now all three of the men's basketball commitments are presently planning to sign early and shut down their recruitments, which ends the option of sending Drew Pember to a prep school for a year and ends the cycle for the Vols barring any transfers after the season. Along with Pember, a 3-star power forward with a nice shooting stroke, the Vols will also be adding long-time commitment Davonte Gaines, a 3-star small forward who has been committed to the Vols since July 1, 2017, and their most recent commitment, 5-star guard Josiah James.

Speaking of early signings, all three of the Lady Vols current commitments are also expected to sign, including a pair of 6-5 posts in Emily Saunders and Tamari Key and a 6-1 guard in Jordan Horston. Horston is the #2 overall player in the class of 2019. All other sports except football open up their signing periods on November 14th as well, but they have an open signing period that allows them to sign anytime between then and August 1st of 2019.

I say those first because my guess is you clicked on this hunting for football recruiting news, and so here all that goes. Tennessee has firmly put themselves in the mix for a number of big names. First, one most everyone knows is Darnell Wright (5-star OT), and nothing at present has changed mine or most people's minds that he is leaning Tennessee. Wright doesn't seem likely to decide for a bit, maybe the Under Armour All-American Game at the earliest, but he could easily end up waiting until National Signing Day. Currently, the Vols hold 60% of the Crystal Ball predictions and it's continued growing over the last week.

Quavaris Crouch (5-star ATH) made a stop in Knoxville for the Kentucky game and the Vols reminded him why they were an early favorite for his services. In fact, he named them as one of the top three teams for his services along with Michigan and Clemson. The Tigers have the lead and have continued to grow that lead on the Crystal Ball, however he won't be deciding until January 5th at the All-American Bowl on NBC. If the Vols can get him back on campus, that may bode well for their chances.

John Emery Jr. (5-star RB), a Vol legacy, made a visit for the Kentucky game and had his expectations exceeded. In fact, his expectations were so exceeded that he has given the indication that he will return for an official visit in December with his whole family. Emery grew up in Louisiana and beating LSU for his services certainly won't be an easy task (he just committed to LSU today), but if any school can do it right now it might just be the Vols. Remember that he was also committed to Georgia before, so I don't think this one is done until the NLI is signed.

Jadon Haselwood (5-star WR) has recently named the Vols as a team he's planning to consider, even though he hasn't made the trip to Knoxville recently. There is plenty of competition for his services too, chief amongst those other contenders being Miami. Georgia and Oklahoma are also in that mix. He's used two of his official visits, and the Vols will need to earn one of his remaining three in order to have a realistic chance at landing the #1 receiver in the country.

Let's jump from the #1 receiver in the cycle to the #1 player in the cycle, Nolan Smith (5-star WDE). Yeah, that's right. The Vols are set to host the top player in the class of 2019 for a visit this weekend against Missouri. He's making the trip with his teammate and current Vol commit Chris Akporoghene. Smith would fit with the Vols as a likely outside linebacker and has drawn comparisons to Khalil Mack. The Vols aren't a threat to flip the Georgia commit going into the visit, but that could change this weekend.

Owen Pappoe (5-star OLB) has become a very real possibility to flip to the Vols from his Auburn commitment. The problematic status of Gus Malzahn has certainly hurt the Tigers here, and his teammate Wanya Morris being committed to Tennessee hasn't hurt them one bit. In fact, he may not be the only Grayson player who could flip to the Vols. Pappoe isn't planning to sign early or enroll early, so the Vols will have time to do work here, but there is also always a chance of things changing when there are about two and a half months of recruiting action to take place.

Henry To'oto'o (4-star OLB) is a guy the Vols really won over with an earlier unofficial visit, but since that time Alabama made a huge move with the California native. Washington is another strong contender here. He's only used one official visit, and the Vols will make every effort to get him back on campus and remind him why he liked them in the first place.

Justin Eboigbe (4-star SDE) is committed to Alabama, and as everyone knows flipping a guy from the Tide is no easy task. Adding in that Eboigbe is a top 5 strongside defensive end this cycle makes it even more unlikely that the Tide would let him flip without a fight. That said, he's made the trip to Knoxville twice and has yet to make that trip on an official visit. The Vols will make the push for one of those three remaining OVs, and if they do get one that may prove dangerous for the odds of Alabama holding onto him.

Bill Norton (4-star SDE) hails from Tennessee, but he's been committed to Georgia since the spring. Even so, he hasn't ruled out the possibility of making an official visit to Knoxville. He won't be easy to flip, but he does seem at least open to other programs after making a couple of unofficial trips to Oxford to check out Ole Miss.

Kenyatta Watson II (4-star DB) is another Grayson player the Vols are hoping to add. Watson has been committed to Texas since May 1st but also hasn't stopped considering all his options. He checked out the Vols in September for an unofficial visit, and it's distinctly possible he could be back for an official visit within the next month, or in January if he doesn't sign early. He represents one of the best possibilities for the Vols to add another defensive back, and he can probably play corner or safety.

Eric Gray (4-star APB) probably represents the Vols best chance to land a true running back this cycle, although they have one possible running back committed in athlete Aaron Beasley. Gray plans to sign and enroll early, so the long-time Michigan commitment will be making his final choice sometime in the next month or so. Tennessee and Ole Miss have positioned themselves as the top competition to Michigan here, but I think it will take Tennessee at least one more visit out of season for them to have a chance.

Khafre Brown (4-star WR) is seemingly down to Tennessee and North Carolina, and despite what the Crystal Ball says on this one I fully believe that the Vols sit in the driver's seat for him. He has been back on campus frequently, and despite UNC being the home team and his brother playing there I think the opportunity and relationships in Knoxville make them the team to beat.

As for other guys who could get looks, here are a few names that either aren't as big or as likely: Kristian Williams (4-star DT), Khris Bogle (4-star WDE), Jalen Curry (4-star WR), Jammie Robinson (4-star S), Jamie Pettway (3-star ILB), Nick Figueroa (3-star SDE), Zion Logue (3-star SDE), JaVonta Payton (3-star WR), Zykamren Robinson (3-star RB)

The bottom line is that the run to the early signing and NSD is going to be pretty interesting for the Vols the way things are shaping up right now.

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

2018-19 Tennessee Vols Basketball

Roster


11 - Kyle Alexander, 6-11, 215, SR
0 - Jordan Bone, 6-3, 174, JR
23 - Jordan Bowden, 6-5, 193, JR
32 - D.J. Burns, 6-9, 272, FR
24 - Lucas Campbell, 6-4, 185, SR
4 - Jacob Fleschman, 6-3, 170, RSO
10 - John Fulkerson, 6-9, 197, RSO
34 - Brock Jancek, 6-8, 212, FR
13 - Jalen Johnson, 6-6, 187, RSO
33 - Zach Kent, 6-11, 225, SO
35 - Yves Pons, 6-6, 209, SO
5 - Admiral Schofield, 6-6, 241, SR
1 - Lamonte Turner, 6-2, 195, RJR
15 - Derrick Walker, 6-8, 236, SO
2 - Grant Williams, 6-7, 236, JR
12 - Brad Woodson, 6-1, 177, SR

Breakdown by Position


Center - This position begins with Kyle Alexander, the ever-improving Canadian big man, but the hope is it doesn't end with him this season. In the second round of the tournament last season, when Alexander went down in the prior round, the lack of a quality number two at center was exposed, and that was arguably the difference between advancing and the loss they suffered at the hands of Chicago-Loyola. Without Alexander, the Vols were forced to turn to younger, smaller players to try and mask the hole, with little success. Zach Kent was redshirting last season as he worked to build onto his slight frame coming out of high school. Kent is a different type of center from Alexander, who is a pure post player. Kent hit 40% from three as a high school junior while playing predominantly in the paint, averaging 17 points and 9 rebounds per game. Kent is much more of a flexible option in the paint, capable of stepping out and knocking down a three or posting up. D.J. Burns is harder to determine exactly where he'll start out playing, but center is probably the best guess given his size and the needs on the roster. Burns has bulk to spare and solid length, averaging 14.2 points and 10.3 rebounds per game last year and 14.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 3.1 blocks two seasons ago. As long as he has the endurance, he's going to have a strong case to make for playing time, at center and possibly even power forward.

Power Forward - The last two seasons, this position has begun and ended with the play of Grant Williams. That makes sense considering he's the defended SEC Player of the Year among his numerous other recognitions from the last two seasons. That's all well and good, but foul trouble and fatigue were issues at times last season, which may have had some impact on the drop in field goal and 3-point percentage, as well as a drop in steals and blocks. Grant Williams will continue to be great, but he needs opportunities to catch his breath. Derrick Walker is probably the best candidate to help him get those breathers. Walker is similarly built and saw his workload increase over the course of last season, playing in 34 of 35 games, averaging 8.8 minutes per contest. He's dropped a few pounds and should be able to handle more minutes while improving his productivity. John Fulkerson is another option here, but Fulkerson has dropped weight and it's a little harder to figure out how he might be used. I think there's a chance he could see himself used at both forward spots to add length at small forward and speed at power forward.

Small Foward - I already touched on Fulkerson at small forward in situations so I won't rehash that again. Let's look at the man at small forward/wing: Admiral Schofield. Schofield was good as a freshman and sophomore, but he really became one of the leaders of the team last season, leading in rebounds, second in scoring, second in steals, fifth in assists, etc. He had such a strong junior campaign that he went through the pre-draft process before electing to return to the Vols for his senior season. Schofield is a reliable shooter from most spots on the floor, and energetic defender, and a vocal and emotional leader. Again, it was a bit tough to find quality replacements for Schofield when he needed a breather or got into foul trouble. Yves Pons is expected to be at least part of the solution after playing sparingly last season. Pons is incredibly athletic and can make plays that most guys at 6-6 would struggle to make, particularly around the rim. Pons can also be a scorer, hitting on two of his three 3-point attempts last season. Another option may be Jalen Johnson, who has the length to contribute on the wing. However, I think the only times he would be there might be in smaller, perimeter shooting looks in which Schofield moves to PF, Johnson to SF, with Bowden and maybe Turner at the guard spots. Otherwise, Johnson will probably be most needed at guard.

Shooting Guard - Jordan Bowden is the returning starter at shooting guard, and he is sound in that role. He led the team in steals while finishing fourth on the team in scoring, assists, and rebounds. The biggest drawback at times with him is the fact that can get lax and fails to display the aggression that has often led to some of his best games in the past two seasons. If the aggression shows up on a more regular basis, he has the potential to be an all-conference performer. Jalen Johnson is listed as a guard and heading into his redshirt sophomore season it's time for him to carve out a role, and that likely role should be as the #2 shooting guard. Johnson has shown an ability to be an effective scorer in his limited playing time. He has the length to be an effective rebounder from the perimeter as well. Another possibility could be Pons seeing minutes at shooting guard, but with it seeming probable that his role behind Schofield will grow that may not be practical. When the coaches want to get both Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bone on the floor together, Turner should slide into the shooting guard spot. Turner is a true combo guard, finishing third in scoring and assists and fifth in rebounds despite coming off the bench. He is the best option as the #2 point guard, so that is likely to be his primary role for much of the season.

Point Guard - Jordan Bone finished second in the SEC last year in assist to turnover ratio and 16th nationally. He's among the nation's best in distributing the ball, and he got more consistent as the season progressed about attacking offensively and taking his shots. He's also a solid rebounder and effective shooter, and he's a willing defender, even if others can be more impactful defensively. Turner is more of a scorer than a distributor, but he doesn't turn the ball over and he's plenty capable of running the floor. Things are thinner at the guard spots this season after the departures of Chris Darrington and James Daniel III, but neither ran for as many minutes as the top three returning guards.

The Schedule

Rather than going game by game, I'll skim through the bulk of the schedule, focusing mostly on the highlights. October 31st and November 6th see the Vols hosting a couple of exhibition games against Tusculum and Lenoir-Rhyne before opening the season on the 9th against the Ragin' Cajuns of Louisiana. Georgia Tech on the 13th is the last warm-up before the start of the NIT Season Tip-Off, which will begin with the Vols taking on Louisville. Louisville was okay last season, making the NIT following a tumultuous offseason that saw Rick Pitino lose his job. New head coach Chris Mack comes from Xavier, a program where he had plenty of success, so this is likely to serve as the first real test for the Vols. Win and they'll likely find themselves playing Kansas, so it's fair to say this should serve as a nice gauge for where the Vols stand. Lose to Louisville, and they're still facing Marquette, so regardless the opponent will be a decent one. November 28th and December 2nd see them handle business against Eastern Kentucky and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Then they face off against with Gonzaga on December 9th, which means a possible second game against a top-four opponent within a month. To wrap up December, the best opponent is Memphis on the 15th. The other opponents are Samford, Wake Forest, and Tennessee Tech. Georgia will be the first team up on the SEC slate, and there is a bit of good news in that Yante Maten is in the NBA now and no longer a thorn in the Vols' side. That said, Georgia still looks decent and might actually improve on last year. An interesting start to the SEC schedule. That will be followed by a probable win against Missouri before a tough meeting with Florida, who is a likely tournament team. Arkansas is next. They return two of their top ten scorers. Not great. Alabama is next. Their top player is a Cleveland Cavalier now. Then a winnable game against Vanderbilt followed by a solid top 25 meeting with West Virginia in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. The next three after West Virginia aren't too difficult with South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Missouri before another meeting with a stout Florida team. A quick respite with playing South Carolina ends abruptly with a trip to Lexington to face the Wildcats. Kentucky is easily the biggest challenger in the SEC to the Vols winning the conference. A three-game stretch against Vanderbilt, LSU, and Ole Miss should allow the Vols to regroup after the first meeting with Kentucky, win or lose, before the 'Cats come to Knoxville. The season will wrap with a game against Mississippi State followed by a matchup with former Vol head coach Bruce Pearl and his Auburn squad. A manageable schedule, but a difficult one to be certain.

Predictions

I'm going to guess between 24-6 and 26-4 for this coming season, with 26-4 contingent upon splitting the series with Florida and Kentucky, which seems likely. It may be a bit surprising, but I'm going to go ahead and call for Admiral Schofield to lead the team in scoring. He ended the season as the most consistent scoring threat for the Vols, and after going through the pre-draft process it is likely that he's discovered holes in his game and areas for improvement. I look for Kyle Alexander, who took major strides last season, to take over the lead in rebounding. Jordan Bone has led the team in assists the last two seasons, and there is no reason short of injury why he shouldn't do the same this season. Schofield and Bowden went back and forth for the lead spot in steals, but Bowden has averaged 33 steals per season over the last two seasons. No one else has come close to that over the last couple seasons, so I'll guess at Bowden keeping things going defensively. Last season, Kyle Alexander topped Grant Williams in blocks. It was still fairly close between them, and the last two seasons Alexander has had 90 blocks and Williams has had 105, so this could go either way. The Vols are going to have a very strong case for a #2 seed, and maybe an outside shot at a #1. For now, I'll lean toward being the top two seed with a favorable tournament draw and a solid shot at an Elite Eight or Final Four appearance. This is going to be a season to remember.

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Tennessee in 2018 by the Numbers

Most seasons, I elect to do a preseason statistical prediction article, in some form or fashion. I've opted to do it again this year but with a bit less of a deep dive than in years past due to the unpredictability of this team. I'll give more general statistical ranges and less broken down numbers because it's rather difficult to pin this team down. I'll also either focus on team numbers or leaders in a particular category rather than estimating the numbers for every single player. It will still be thorough, but less in-depth than in past years. With that, here we go.

Passing

Jarrett Guarantano - 2,100 to 2,300 yards, 20-22 touchdowns, 8-10 interceptions
Team - 2,500 to 2,700 yards, 24-26 touchdowns, 10-12 interceptions

With the new redshirt rules, it's highly likely that every single scholarship quarterback sees some time passing, and my numbers could be way off if the prevailing belief that Guarantano wins the job and keeps it fails to pan out. Still, that isn't my biggest concern at this point. That remains the fact that I'm calling for a passing game that only managed 11 touchdowns against 10 interceptions to see such meaningful improvement, but it is very much one of those situations where it simply won't get worse. It's easy to think that I'm calling for a huge jump in passing yardage, but the Vols passed for over 2,000 yards last season, so it's still incremental improvement that I'm expecting in yardage. The touchdown to interception ratio is the big leap, but the talent looks to be there and as long as the development and maturity have come along as most believe things should play out fairly well for this level of improvement.

Rushing

Ty Chandler - 450 to 650 yards, 3-5 touchdowns, 4.5-4.7 yards per carry
Team - 1,800 to 2,000 yards, 18-20 touchdowns, 4.3-4.5 yards per carry

This may seem low to some people, but it's worth acknowledging that this is a 300-500 yard increase in the season rushing total. The offensive line looks improved and it's a good group of running backs, but if things are going to be handled as running back by committee I have a hard time seeing the running production being especially consistent. That isn't to say that they couldn't break 2,000 yards rushing on the season, but for that to happen I think someone has to fully take the reins at the position to become the #1 back. Ty Chandler is a strong candidate to make that happen, and Tim Jordan continues to impress when he gets his opportunities. Madre London, while impressive at times, probably isn't explosive enough to become the primary ball carrier. It's also worth noting that there is a lot of belief that the staff may get creative with how they use Chandler, so his rushing numbers may not be great, but I like him to have a shot at over 1,000 all-purpose yards. After all, Chandler did have 829 all-purpose yards last year, so he doesn't have to improve much or get that many more opportunities to make that happen.

Receiving

Brandon Johnson - 475-675 yards, 3-5 touchdowns, 12.5-14.5 yards per reception
Team - 2,400 to 2,700 yards, 24-26 touchdowns, 11-13 yards per reception

This one may come as a surprise to a lot of people with Callaway and Jennings back, but bear this in mind: Johnson led the team in receptions and receiving yards last season, and neither Callaway nor Jennings has led the team in receptions or receiving yards. Both are guys who will find the end zone plenty, and both could, and probably will outscore Johnson. What Johnson provides is a reliable target to the quarterback. When you have a number of solid receiving options, it tends to keep the numbers down for everyone. Even so, I think a strong season is a good possibility for Johnson. There is also going to be some rust for Jennings to knock off and Callaway was notoriously inconsistent last year. When Callaway and Jennings are at their best, they are making big plays that most other receivers aren't able to, and I would wager they'll keep that same trend going this season. It is very possible for the Vols to have 3-5 receivers over 350 receiving yards this season, and if so I would keep an eye on Johnson, Callaway, Jennings, Jordan Murphy, and Dominick Wood-Anderson to be the guys getting it done.

Total Offense

Team - 4,300-4,700 yards of total offense

I might actually be crazy for this one, but I simply expect major offensive improvement. How can one not after the offense had fewer than 3,500 yards of total offense a year ago? The mess that was the quarterback situation last year along with a battered and inconsistent offensive line doomed the Vols, but they head into this season with no major injuries and noticeable improvement at two of their major perceived weaknesses last season. John Kelly obviously won't be easily replaced, but the Vols have options with an apparent three-headed beast at running back, and there are no notable losses at wide receiver. There is, however, a noteworthy return at wideout with Jauan Jennings. It's too soon to say whether or not this optimism is undeserved, but right now things look promising for significant improvement. For any critics who would like to pretend like this prediction means winning seasons, I would point out that the 2017 versions of both Vanderbilt and Arkansas fall within this yardage range.

Total Points per Game

Team - 43-50 touchdowns, 15-18 field goals, 26-31 points per game

My thoughts here have changed from a couple days ago, and the logic behind that is that I actually like the potential of placekicker Brent Cimaglia to hit some deeper field goals and give the Vols a chance at points where they might have otherwise missed out on those points previously. I also think the Vols will have a chance at some defensive and special teams touchdowns. The Vols have two players on the roster who have registered return touchdowns and those two also ranked among the top four on kick and punt returns last season. Defensively, whenever a team increases their turnovers they increase the opportunities for defensive touchdowns. Two current Vols have interception return touchdowns (both now at linebacker) and at least two of their newcomers likely to see significant playing time in the secondary were largely recruited as offensive weapons in addition to their coverage skills.

Tackling

Daniel Bituli - 100-115 tackles, 8-10 tackles for loss, 1.5-3 sacks

For obvious reasons, I'm not going to both with team tackles because it's a pretty pointless stat and wildly difficult to gauge. However, the leading tackler is a pretty important measure of the leader of the defense. Bituli led the team in tackles last year and should be poised to do so again. In many ways, he's become the emotional center of the defense. Some would probably lean toward Darrin Kirkland Jr., but given his recent injury history and the fact that he's yet to lead the team in tackles in his three seasons, I opted to go with what appears to be the safer bet. Kirkland has been challenged at the weakside position by Quart'e Sapp, and I think those two talented linebackers will split time a lot more than Will Ignont will manage to steal minutes from Bituli.

Tackles for Loss

Jonathan Kongbo - 13-15 tackles for loss
Team - 80-85 tackles for loss

Often times, the leader in sacks for a team will also prove to be the leader in tackles for loss. On occasion, a linebacker is so disruptive that the sack leader simply can't keep up. Then there are those unique specimens at defensive tackle who are abnormally disruptive run defenders. Why Kongbo? Well, as a true defensive lineman, he was somewhat limited. Taking on blockers with little head of steam proved a limiter on his talents, but his talent was never really in question. Now with the shift to the Jack linebacker role, he will spend a fair bit of his time in a 2-point stance. Getting his hand out of the dirt and more room to pick up momentum as well as selecting and executing pass rush moves should ultimately enable him to create havoc. He struggled against the run last season because he struggled to beat blockers in those situations. He should find himself with fewer situations in which he has a blocker already on him as soon as the play begins. I think this is one category where the Vols make a big jump, having produced only 61 tackles for loss last season. Pruitt's defenses bring pressure, and that should lead to negative plays.

Sacks

Darrell Taylor - 7-9 sacks
Team - 25-30 sacks

Yeah, I know I said a lot of times the leader in sacks is also the leader in tackles for loss, but not this time. Darrell Taylor has always been insanely explosive, having played wide receiver in high school and retaining much of that athletic ability as he's added muscle to his frame. Working at the strongside linebacker position should give him plenty of pass rushing opportunities, and with Kongbo putting pressure on from one side, my belief is that the speedy Taylor will be able to take advantage of those situations. Kongbo should get his sacks, but I don't think he'll be able to get to those loftier numbers with offenses trying to gameplan around his pressure. I'm not calling for as big a jump here. Tennessee had 22 sacks last season, so my low-end improvement is only three sacks. Yes, if they reach the high-end of my prediction would be a pretty significant jump from last season, but right in line with their sack production in 2015 and 2016.

Passes Defended

Baylen Buchanan - 8-10 passes defended
Team - 50-55 passes defended

I'm in no way exaggerating when I say that Tennessee was abysmal in this category last season. They were among the worst in the FBS in that category, with only one Power 5 school finishing the season with fewer passes defended than the Vols (Syracuse). I'm not predicting some insane turnaround here, however. I'm simply calling for a return to the middle of the FBS pack. Now, why predict Buchanan to lead the team in passes defended? I ultimately think that he could find himself being the more favorable target this season over the two freshmen opposite him because Buchanan doesn't strike me as a pick waiting to happen. He'll bat down plenty of passes, in my opinion, but he won't force many turnovers. He's a strong tackler and physical corner, and that is his greatest asset. The two athletes opposite him are much more likely to be plucking balls out of the air, although they may also be the ones more likely to give up big plays. The corner position looks to be a mixed bag this season.

Interceptions

Alontae Taylor - 2-4 interceptions
Team - 10-12 interceptions

Tennessee was bad at forcing interceptions last season. Bad to the tune of only five interceptions, and only two of those interceptions from last season are back on this year's roster. One was by Nigel Warrior and the other by Daniel Bituli. That's the bad news. The good news is Todd Kelly Jr. is back and he's accounted for 8 interceptions during his time at Tennessee. We also saw Alontae Taylor and Bryce Thompson record interceptions in the open practice this fall. Trevon Flowers and Brandon Davis are a couple other names that have popped up as far as forcing picks is concerned. Long story short, they should at least double last seasons totals, and with it probable that Taylor will be tested early and often he will have a good chance to become the leader in picks with his special athleticism.

Forced Fumbles

Nigel Warrior - 3-5 forced fumbles
Team - 14-16 forced fumbles

Bet on the trends. Nigel Warrior tied for the team lead in forced fumbles last season, so he's the smart pick to repeat that feat. Warrior is a big hitter and a smart tackler. He knows how to hit a ball carrier to force it loose. Tennessee finished in the top three in forced fumbles among SEC teams last season, and given the fact that Pruitt's defenses tend to force a lot of turnovers, it's realistic to think that they will finish with roughly the same number of forced fumbles. In fact, the Vols return three players who finished ranked among the top 11 in forced fumbles last season.

Fumble Recoveries

Nigel Warrior - 2-4 fumble recoveries
Team - 10-12 fumbles recovered

I expect Nigel Warrior to be the fumble king for the Vols this season, a role filled by Rashaan Gaulden last year. Gaulden forced three and recovered three last season, and Warrior may well match that. Like Gaulden, Warrior is an active defender who has a knack for locating the ball and making the game-changing play on it. As a team, the Vols recovered ten fumbles last season. Pruitt's teams over the last five seasons, a Pruitt defense has recorded fewer than 8 fumble recoveries once, and I certainly don't think he'll see his defense suffer a major decline in turnovers forced this season. The last time a Pruitt-coached defense didn't record 20+ turnovers was in his first season as a coordinator at Florida State. I'll bet on that turnover trend holding steady with the Vols in his first year as a head coach.

Total Yards Allowed

Team - 2,300-2,500 passing yards, 2,100-2,300 rushing yards, 4,400-4,800 total yards allowed

Sometimes you have to learn to crawl before you can walk, and learn to walk before you can run. That's going to be more or less the case with the Vol defense this season. You don't give up nearly 5,000 yards of total offense in 12 games and suddenly become a domineering defense. In fact, the only reason I'm giving the Vols defense this much improvement is my belief that they will force a fair few turnovers in 2018. If they aren't able to improve in forcing turnovers like I expect, it will get worse. I think teams will be forced to attack the Vols in a relatively balanced way. The secondary has to be tested, and you certainly can't abandon attacking what was one of the worst run defenses in the nation last season. So what are we talking about as far as total defense? Middle of the pack in the SEC and that feels about right for this team. There is a significant mix of upperclassmen with younger talents, so elite is probably too much to ask but noticeable improvement also should be expected. For those doing the math, yes, I am expecting the yards allowed by the Vols this season to be higher than the yards gained. There are at least three teams on the Vols schedule that should be capable of piling on the yards allowed, and there aren't many on the schedule beyond the cupcake opponents that the backups will play extensively against where the Vols are likely to be in blowout mode. Things just measure out that way.

Total Points per Game Allowed

Team - 42-50 touchdowns, 14-16 field goals, 25-31 points per game allowed

I'll admit that this one feels a little low, but I think there are at least six or seven opponents on the schedule who simply won't be able to rack up the points, even if those games prove to be losses for the Vols. Despite the bleak defensive output last season in total defense, the scoring defense was actually middle of the pack at a little over 29 points per game allowed. The bottom half of the conference, to be sure, but there were still five SEC teams that allowed a higher point per game total. Again, this is middle of the pack in the SEC, but incremental improvement is still an improvement.

My final thoughts are this: I think this can be a largely middle of the road team in the Southeastern Conference with a final record somewhere in the 5-7 to 7-5 range before the postseason. These numbers were done with a bowl game in mind because of my 6-6 prediction, but there will be a number of toss-up games this season, in large part because there isn't much to indicate that either side of the ball is going to carry the team to dominance against the bulk of their schedule. South Carolina, Missouri, Florida, West Virginia, and Kentucky all look like they could probably go either way. I expect this team to win enough of those to head to a bowl game but the roster still just isn't built to dominate most Power 5 opponents. That said, if they stay mostly healthy they're a lot closer than they seem to have been a year ago.

Saturday, August 18, 2018

Position Group Power Rankings - Second Scrimmage Edition

Linebackers: No change at the top this time around. This is still the deepest looking group as a whole. No JJ Peterson, no problem right now. Peterson qualifying would just be icing on a very, very nice cake. There is a quality two-deep at linebacker and it's remained fairly settled the entire way. Injuries could be a bit of an issue if they started piling up, but that's really true of any position. This is as strong a group as can be found on the roster. Jonathan Kongbo has the potential to be the breakout star of the group. Darrell Taylor and Jordan Allen have also really shown some potential to be productive pass rushers from linebacker. Grade: A

Running Backs: A group on the move as the top three have really risen to the top of the pecking order. Ty Chandler is still the most explosive of the backs, in addition to being the lightest of the trio. Light is relative here as he is listed at 5-11, 201. Tim Jordan is a bowling ball at running back as he appears to be 100% muscle at 5-11, 203. Competing with Jordan for the #2 job is Madre London, the graduate transfer from Michigan State. London is one of the bigger backs on the roster at 6-1, 213. It will probably still be running back by committee, but these three seem plenty capable of handling the load and handling it well. Grade: A-

Defensive Linemen: Some of the younger guys are stepping up here to keep this group in the top three positions. Kingston Harris got off to a bit of a slower start, but he's really begun to establish himself as a young player in line to play meaningful minutes. Kivon Bennett got a brief look at linebacker for depth purposes but has returned to the defensive line, where he looks like the probable number two behind Kyle Phillips. Emmit Gooden is in line to play a lot of minutes somewhere along the defensive line along with Phillips, Shy Tuttle, and Alexis Johnson. The greatest concern here is having to turn to younger players if injuries pile up, but as far as the two-deep is concerned, it looks fairly promising. Grade: B+

Defensive Backs: I'm giving this group a bump largely because of the safeties/Star group, which looks as deep and high quality as the Vols have had in some time. They can comfortably go into a dime defense and feel relatively comfortable with the two additional defensive backs, both of which seem likely to come from the safety group. Todd Kelly Jr., Theo Jackson, Nigel Warrior, Shawn Shamburger, Cheyenne Labruzza, Micah Abernathy, and Trevon Flowers all look capable of helping out this season if called upon, and Brandon Davis has shown flashes and is possibly only held back by his lack of weight. At corner, things are less promising but not necessarily grim. The top corner options right now appear to be Bryce Thompson, Baylen Buchanan, Alontae Taylor, Kenneth George Jr., and Marquill Osborne. Were the season to start today, I'd anticipate Buchanan and Taylor being the starters with George behind Buchanan and Thompson spelling Taylor. The corner group is relatively young, but Taylor, Thompson, and George bring athleticism that was lacking the last several seasons. Grade: B

Offensive Linemen: Big jump here, and for a good reason: Trey Smith is close to being cleared, is seeing more work, and appears to be helping solidify the offensive line overall. Chance Hall is also coming along, although he's probably not ready to help at all yet. With Smith's impending return, Drew Richmond has moved to right tackle, where he appears to be a better fit. Ryan Johnson has joined him on the right side of the line at guard. Smith and Jahmir Johnson are now the top options at left tackle and the top options at left guard are Jerome Carvin and Riley Locklear, a couple of athletic and aggressive young blockers. Center has become the sure home of graduate transfer Brandon Kennedy. The #2 right tackle is pretty clearly Marcus Tatum right now, and the backup right guard looks likely to be K'Rojhn Calbert. Ollie Lane seems likely to spell Kennedy, but he should play sparingly. Overall, this is probably the best I've felt about a Vol offensive line since Ja'Wuan James, James Stone, Zach Fulton, Tiny Richardson, and Marcus Jackson formed the starting five. Grade: B

Wide Receivers: This group slides a little bit largely because of drops in practice without defenders. Those are balls that just can't hit the ground. Jauan Jennings also hasn't been 100% in camp and it's hard to argue that his health is a major factor in how good this group will be. Marquez Callaway and Brandon Johnson continue to run with the ones, and at times when Jennings has been unavailable Josh Palmer has stepped into a starting role. That seems like the probable starting three for West Virginia, but Jordan Murphy has certainly been flashing in practice and could push Palmer for that third job if Jennings doesn't get healthy in time for week one. Cedric Tillman continues to be an impressive freshman, especially considering his very low recruiting ranking. He continues to look like the steal of the class. The good news is that Latrell Williams and Tyler Byrd have both had strong practices this past week and especially Byrd could compete for playing time this season. Grade: B-

Special Teams: This group has dropped because of some occasional subpar practices, especially for the punters. Both are young, but the two freshmen will have to perform this season as they are the only realistic options to handle the punting duties. The good news is Paxton Brooks was praised today by Pruitt as someone who has been improving, so that bodes well for the punting duties. As far as placekicking goes, not much has been said about the placekickers and that's a good thing. Seldom is a specialist being mentioned because they've done something good in practice. It's generally bad news. There are options to handle return duties, but fans will have to understand that there simply isn't another Evan Berry waiting in the wings. Marquez Callaway and Ty Chandler both have return touchdowns in their careers, but neither has been mentioned much in relation to return duties. This one may have to wait to be revealed until the first depth chart is released. Grade: C+

Quarterbacks: I'd love to tell you this was a group on the rise, but if they are it isn't by much. Keller Chryst has been practicing better, and he's made it a real competition with Jarrett Guarantano for the starting job now. Unfortunately, that also means that neither signal caller has separated themselves. Guarantano will have a strong practice. Then Chryst performs better in the next practice. Back and forth with neither one really taking the reins. The most recent scrimmage saw all four quarterbacks getting equal work according to Pruitt. This really seems like a competition that won't end until the week before the Florida game, so be prepared to see both Chryst and Guarantano get work with the first team against West Virginia, ETSU, and UTEP, and weeks two and three will probably see all four quarterbacks playing at least some minutes. I do think that for the most part Guarantano and Chryst are feeding off one another, and that fact is why I think this group has improved slightly. Even so, it really isn't by much at all. Grade: C

Tight Ends: The group that I also put the fullbacks/H-backs with has dropped to last place because of a severe lack of depth emerging. They can go two-deep at both fullback/H-back and true tight ends, but there's virtually no depth beyond that. So much so that it seems that Princeton Fant's return to working with the tight end group very likely was depth related for those positions. Dominick Wood-Anderson is everything he was billed to be and he might very well be the Vols most productive player from that position since Mychal Rivera. Eli Wolf is the clear #2 tight end and he continues to show good hands and a strong work ethic. He can be explosive as an option to split out into the slot. Ja'Quain Blakely has taken the helm at the fullback spot with Austin Pope also getting extensive work handling those duties. Neither Pope nor Blakely seems like an option to help at tight end if injuries were to occur there, and likely options like James Brown have been limited in camp. LaTrell Bumphus seems best suited for the fullback role, but he could at least provide a big body to help block if needed at tight end. Jacob Warren has the tools to help as a receiver, but he's far too slight to handle the necessary blocking responsibilities. This is a group that is a couple of injuries away from being a liability. Grade: C-

Tuesday, August 7, 2018

Early Camp Position Power Rankings

It's still early going in camp, but there have been some impressions formed about the roster and the strength of each position group. Again, this is all early going, and it's all subject to change as one would expect. Even so, here it goes.

Linebackers: This is one group that can probably comfortably go two deep, and that's without JJ Peterson even on campus. It's also one of the most experienced positions on the roster, with 180 combined games played and 52 collective starts among the group. They have a combined career stat line of 396 tackles, 31.5 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, 3 interceptions, 11 passes broken up, 4 fumble recoveries, and 5 forced fumbles and average out to 6-2, 231 pounds as a whole and 6-3, 236 pounds just with the scholarship players. They've been moving around well, with Darrin Kirkland Jr. Quart'e Sapp, Daniel Bituli, Jordan Allen, and Jonathan Kongbo all being specifically mentioned over the past four practices. The rest of the likely two deep includes Darrell Taylor, Deandre Johnson, and Will Ignont. Only Johnson was ranked lower than a four star out of high school. They have the talent, the depth, and the experience to be a strength of the team. Grade: A-

Wide Receivers: Again, one of the more experienced groups on the roster, with a combined 107 games played and 39 starts between them all. As a collective, they have registered 154 receptions for 2,086 yards and 14 touchdowns for 13.6 yards per reception. The running backs and tight ends only account for a combined 38 receptions for 341 yards and a touchdown, so it's plain to see that the receivers are going to need to keep it up and step it up. Marquez Callaway, Jauan Jennings, and Brandon Johnson have accounted for 77.3% of the receptions, 83.4% of the receiving yards, and 92.9% of the touchdowns by the wideouts, so it's pretty clear who the top three receivers will be. Josh Palmer looks likely to be one of the first off the bench along with Jordan Murphy, but who will be the sixth man in the group is still up for grabs. Latrell Williams, Jacquez Jones, and Tyler Byrd are the experienced guys competing for that sixth job, but keep an eye on true freshman Cedric Tillman, who wasn't highly ranked out of high school but is coming along fast and impressing. As a group, they average out to 6-1, 190 and 6-1, 194 with the scholarship players. Grade: B+

Defensive Line: There are four options on the defensive line that look very solid, but things get rougher after that, I'm afraid. Shy Tuttle, Alexis Johnson, Emmit Gooden, and Kyle Phillips in some configuration will be the top four defensive linemen, but after that it's walk ons and underclassmen. Paul Bain has been in the program for a while and has always impressed in practices. That seems like it may payoff in playing time for the senior walk on this season. Greg Emerson was the top ranked defensive line signee in this past class, but he's still working on getting back to his old form from a bad injury prior to his senior season and he thus far doesn't look to be a factor this season. That leaves sophomores Kivon Bennett and Matthew Butler along with freshmen Kingston Harris, Kurott Garland, and John Mincey to try and round out the depth chart. Bennett has displayed some strong play in early practices and the staff seems to be challenging him to show even more. Mincey has also had impressive moments as has Harris, but the reality is that we're still talking about freshmen in Mincey and Harris. This is the least experienced group on the defense, with only 79 combined games played and 13 starts among them, but the top four is still an impressive group. The group has combined for 125 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, 6 passes broken up, and 3 fumble recoveries. The good news is that Pruitt wanted to get this group bigger and that has been accomplished, with the position group averaging out to 6-3, 287 and 6-3, 290 with just the scholarship guys. Grade B

Running Backs: The numbers don't match up with how good this group appears capable of being. At any rate, they look the part fully and completely. As a group, they've only combined for 316 career carries for 1,290 yards and 10 touchdowns rushing and 32 receptions for 276 yards and a touchdown. Not exactly numbers that will set the world on fire. Neither are their 70 career games played or 7 combined starts, but the combined size of all the running backs is 5-11, 207, but that gets a big boost when it's just the scholarship running backs, jumping up to 6-1, 217. Mind you, part of that is due to my inclusion of Ja'Quain Blakely, who is listed as a tight end/fullback, but since they will be running more I-formation, it only seems fair to include the only listed fullback on the roster. Even without counting Blakely, however, they still have some size at running back with Trey Coleman (6-0, 210), Madre London (6-1, 213), Jeremy Banks (6-2, 211), and Princeton Fant (6-2, 222). There are also some smaller backs in the group with Ty Chandler (5-11, 201) and Tim Jordan (5-11, 203), but Jordan runs with power as well. Chandler is really the best of the bunch when it comes to speed, but he's not much of a power back, so it's likely to be at least somewhat running back by committee. They do seem to have that committee though. Grade: B-

Defensive Backs: Yeah, I'm going to place them this high, and the reasons might surprise you. One main reason is it's the most experienced position group on the roster in 2018, with 197 career games played and 54 starts between them all. Another is the strength and depth of the safety group with Nigel Warrior, Todd Kelly Jr., and Micah Abernathy all three having at least 13 career starts behind each of them. The three of them have all 11 of the position's career interceptions. Speaking of the position's combined stats, they also have 482 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 20 passes broken up, 6 fumble recoveries, and 5 fumbles. With or without the walk ons, the secondary group averages out to 6-0, 188, which is a good sized collection of DBs. Now, if it were just the safeties performing at this point, I'd have them lower, but Shawn Shamburger has been impressing at the Star position, the nickel in this defensive scheme. At corner, Alontae Taylor, Kenneth George Jr., Baylen Buchanan, and Bryce Thompson have all had standout moments and right now might be emerging as the top four corners this season. It's simply a group that seems to be further ahead than expected, and that's due in no small part to the emergence of two true freshmen and a JUCO transfer at corner. Grade: C+

Special Teams: Things are pretty settled as far as the placekicker and snapper are concern, with Brent Cimaglia handling placekicking duties and Riley Lovingood and Elijah Medford back to handle the snapping duties. Punter is a bit of a competition, with walk on Joe Doyle challenging scholarship freshman Paxton Brooks for the job. Neither is going to impress in the way that Trevor Daniel, Matt Darr, or Michael Palardy did over the past several seasons, but a lot of that is just going to have to come with experience, which they both lack. They need to become more consistent, and the big booming punts of last season simply aren't going to be there. As for the returners, Theo Jackson and Jordan Murphy are getting looks at punt returner. It will be interesting to see if Ty Chandler returns kickoffs again or if Jackson and Murphy will get looks there as well. Grade: C

Tight Ends: This position group is getting a boost mostly due to the addition of Dominick Wood-Anderson, who has looked like everything he was billed to be out of the JUCO ranks. He's a talented receiver and a capable blocker. Unfortunately, he is the only complete tight end on the roster. Eli Wolf is still too slight to be much help as a blocker, but he's likely the top flex tight end who can be shifted out as a slot. Austin Pope has gotten work as an H-back/fullback type as well as a tight end. Jacob Warren isn't physically ready for the tight end position. LaTrell Bumphus and Ja'Quain Blakely are true fullback/H-back types at this point. James Brown is probably 15 pounds away from helping much at tight end, and the former high school quarterback isn't likely to help much as a fullback type. That's the group. Wood-Anderson and everybody else. That does not make for a complete position group. I won't bother with the stats because they aren't worth bothering with. As a group, they've had 34 games played and one start in the college ranks. They average out to 6-4, 242, which isn't bad but is brought up a lot by Wood-Anderson's 257 pounds and Bumphus's 263 pounds. If Wood-Anderson goes down, this group becomes a frightening liability, especially as far as in-line blockers goes. Grade: C-

Quarterbacks: This is very much a case of not really knowing where else to put this group. Keller Chryst and Jarrett Guarantano seem to have really separated themselves as the top two guys, and Guarantano might be separating himself from Chryst, at least in the early going. Chryst was more comfortable in his fourth practice, but Guarantano hasn't taken any steps back. So why such a low grade? Because Tennessee has had to dip to their third quarterback plenty in the last five or so seasons, and getting down there gets very scary. Additionally, how Guarantano or Chryst will perform in a game is a concern, and a serious one. The career passing stats would make for a solid season, with a 56.2% completion percentage throwing for 3,075 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions between Chryst, Guarantano, and McBride. The group has good size at 6-3, 218, but even with the addition of Chryst it's fair to question the depth of the position beyond the top two. Things will get rough fast with injuries. Grade: C-

Offensive Line: What a shocker, right? Well, in actuality I only gave them this low of a grade because of the still limited status of Trey Smith and Chance Hall. Drew Richmond appears to have improved some and Brandon Kennedy at center is a revelation. Right guard is likely to be a competition between Riley Locklear and freshman Jerome Carvin, and both appear capable. Marcus Tatum is still not an elite tackle, but Ryan Johnson appears to hold his own filling in for Smith at left guard. Ultimately, the need for either Smith or Hall to take the reins at right tackle is a big one, and with both trying to get back to being fully cleared to play their status is the difference between barely passable and solid. Tatum, Johnson, Ollie Lane, and Nathan Niehaus shouldn't be in the mix for starting jobs but should be depth pieces, and for now they are at least names that have to be watched with the holes in the starting five. That's a big problem waiting for a clear answer. Grade: D+

Saturday, July 7, 2018

Position Breakdown: Defensive Back

Bryce Thompson and Alontae Taylor are also both strong candidates to play on the defensive side of the football, but in order to get through this article a bit quicker I'll refer you back to the wide receiver article where I profiled them previously.

Micah Abernathy, 6-0, 208 - Abernathy is a player who pretty quickly found a role on the roster, registering 9 tackles and 69 kickoff return yards as a reserve nickel and up back on kickoffs, but it was as a sophomore that he really began to emerge. Over the last two seasons he's played in 24 games and started 22 at safety. He had a big impact in 2016 with 69 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 6 passes defended, 3 fumble recoveries, and 2 interceptions as well as maintaining his special teams role. He remained as a starting safety last year, but he took a step backward even though his overall tackles grew, recording 81 tackles with 1 tackle for loss, 2 passes defended, and a fumble recovery. He looked a step slower as a junior and appeared lost in coverage at times. Even so, he is one of the most experienced options at safety and he will maintain a role in the secondary as part of the rotation, but with the return of Todd Kelly Jr. and Nigel Warrior, he could have a battle on his hands to start again.

Terrell Bailey, 5-11, 183 - Bailey is one of the most complete corners on the roster, but he also doesn't stand out in any specific way. He's a steady option at the corner position. He's not the biggest. He's not the fastest. He's not the strongest. He's just a solid overall corner with solid technique. Unfortunately, that lack of an area of excellence also means that he doesn't really pop on the field and it seems he may be a bit buried in the depth chart. Of course, at this point steady might be needed before the season ends, depending on how things shake out at corner. Bailey could be an interesting name to keep an eye on as fall camp and the early season progresses.

Baylen Buchanan, 5-11, 188 - As a true freshman, Buchanan emerged as one of the most promising young corners on the roster, but he took a step back as a sophomore. This spring, he was one of the best on the roster and gave himself an inside track on a starting job. The son of former standout at Louisville and in the NFL, Ray Buchanan, football runs through Buchanan's veins. He shows flashes of the type of aggression and physicality that helped Cam Sutton become a third round selection of the Pittsburgh Steelers, so if he can refine his technique and maintain focus he could certainly become a major contributor under the new staff.

Brandon Davis, 5-11, 170 - Brandon Davis is joining the Vols as a blueshirt after a very good career in high school playing both football and baseball. Davis will be playing baseball with the Vols as well as football, but I won't dive to deep into the baseball side of things. On the football field, he had 86 tackles, a tackle for loss, 37 passes defended, 13 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, and 4 defensive touchdowns in three seasons. In other words, he's a little good in coverage, or at least was in high school in Louisiana. Davis joins the Vols at a position of need and if he can reshape his body and adapt to the college game quickly enough he could be an impact player quickly.

Carlin Fils-aime, 5-11, 186 - If you weren't following closely this spring, this might be a name that you're surprised to see on this side of the football, but heading into spring practices the coaches decided they needed to take a look at their options on the defensive side of the ball to bolster the corner position. That prompted Fils-aime to move from running back to corner, and he quickly started to make some noise on that side of the football even though he was completely new to playing in the secondary. He absorbed coaching like a sponge and since he didn't have any bad habits he was able to start from scratch. His athleticism wasn't really in doubt after leading the Vols in yards per carry last season at 6.9. It's hard to say whether or not he'll make a run at significant playing time this season, but if he continues what he did this spring he could very well make some noise before his career is done.

Trevon Flowers, 6-1, 188 - Remember me talking about Brandon Davis and his baseball prowess in addition to football talent? Same thing here. Flowers actually took a three year break from football to focus on baseball, but he returned to the football field as a senior and became a fairly fast rising recruit, sporting offers from Clemson and Kentucky despite concerns that he would be an MLB draft selection. The draft came and went with Flowers enrolled at Tennessee and focused on his collegiate career. Long and athletic, Flowers is probably capable of playing corner, nickel/star, or free safety, but how quickly he'll be able to contribute will depend on how quickly he adapts to the college game and refreshes his football acumen.

Kenneth George Jr., 6-0, 200 - This is a very interesting young man because his journey to joining an SEC roster has been a long one to say the least. After finishing high school, he stood at 5-7 and under 150 pounds. He moved to Texas, lived in the gym, hit a growth spurt, and tried out for several JUCO teams before landing at Trinity Valley CC. Now, a long and strong corner who is coming off of a redshirt freshman season in which he registered 27 tackles, 8 passes broken up, and 2 interceptions in his first meaningful season of football after being relegated to mostly special teams in high school. Joining the Vols as a redshirt sophomore, he will have three years left to play and more than most he fits the mold of what the new staff is looking for in a corner. He's still on the raw side, but with his work ethic I wouldn't bet against seeing him on the field this season.

Maleik Gray, 6-2, 194 - A high school linebacker. A freshman safety. Now a sophomore corner? For his sake, I hope Gray is done changing positions so he can settle in and learn a specific job. Gray is long and strong, and his speed is every bit as quick as you need in a corner (4.44 timed forty). As the roster got thin last season, his redshirt was burned to fill holes, playing in two games. He is every bit as athletic as one could hope for and since he also played receiver in high school he has knowledge of what the receivers might do. All that said, he has a lot to learn to be anything more than an athlete trying to play corner. If he can catch up quickly, there are certainly opportunities in the secondary. Even if he doesn't, hopefully the staff decides this is a permanent move so that he can learn a specific job and develop into that particular role.

Theo Jackson, 6-2, 185 - Vol fans no doubt remember the long, skinny kid named Rashaan Gaulden who developed into a third round safety selection of the Carolina Panthers. Why bring him up? Jackson is very similar to Gaulden. As a freshman, Gaulden was too good to keep off the field, playing in 11 games with seven tackles. As a freshman, Jackson was too good to keep off the field, playing in 11 games with eight tackles, but I'm betting against Jackson suffering the injury that cost Gaulden his true sophomore season. Like Gaulden, Jackson showed up under 180 as a safety and had a lot of developing to do physically, but the skill set was there from the beginning. Jackson emerged as a very viable starting safety option this spring, but with Todd Kelly returning as a redshirt senior with his degree in hand, competition for the job will be fierce. Don't bet against the skinny kid though. All he does is ball out.

Todd Kelly Jr., 5-11, 202 - I don't know about anyone else, but I'm going to forget last season happened for a lot of guys because they all fell into a hole of a lost season. Kelly is definitely one of those guys, so let's talk about what he did in his first three seasons in Knoxville. 150 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, a sack, 14 passes defended, 8 interceptions, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery despite only starting 16 of 38 games played. He's a pure safety, capable of playing the run or playing the pass with equal willingness and aplomb. So how does he fit now? Well, that's interesting because the new staff uses the "Star" nickel, essentially a safety. That could mean that Kelly, Warrior, and probably Jackson are all on the field at the same time. Warrior has been rumored to play the Star position, but Kelly could be a viable option there as well. Regardless of who fits where, expect all three to see the field plenty.

Cheyenne Labruzza, 6-0, 191 - Labruzza came in initially as a highly sought after cornerback recruit, but before the season began it was decided he could best help the team out by moving to safety. He played in four games, but didn't register any stats. He could likely still play corner, but he has the type of size that the staff likes in their safeties and the Star/nickel role. Labruzza has a nose for the football and plays with toughness and aggression, which prompted schools to target him hard late in the process, so holding onto him was a strong move by the Vols. He could find an expanded role this season, both on special teams and on defense.

Marquill Osborne, 5-11, 187 - Osborne was highly regarded when the Vols brought him in, but he's seen minimal playing time so far, recording 11 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, and a sack over two seasons. He also had 4 kickoff returns for 79 yards. Like Buchanan, he left spring as a presumptive starter, but he'll be facing a challenge in fall camp for the job. Osborne has speed and he has decent length, so with improved coaching he should be able to build on his career stats for sure, but whether or not he can hold down a starting job will be determined by his ability to hold off younger players.

Shawn Shamburger, 6-0, 194 - Shamburger looks the part of a cornerback that Pruitt would pursue with his size and aggression. He's long and he's a natural cornerback, but he got thrown to the wolves  a bit last season out of necessity, playing in 11 games with one start. Of course, that start came against eventual national champ Alabama. In that game, he had 12 tackles and a sack while being picked on by the Tide. Even so, Shamburger has undeniable talent and as long as he continues to progress he should see plenty of playing time.

Nigel Warrior, 6-0, 199 - If there is an All-American in the Vols secondary this coming season, Nigel Warrior is that man. Last season, he had 83 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, a sack, 4 passes broken up, 3 forced fumbles, a fumble recovery, a blocked kick, and an interception return for a touchdown. Now, he's heading into his junior year, bigger, stronger, and with his instincts only getting better. Warrior can really play any of the safety spots or even the Star position. He certainly had an argument for being an All-SEC selection on last season's post-season awards lists. He was easily the defensive MVP, and honestly a case could be made for him to be the MVP of the team. I fully expect him to be even better next season, and he's the only guy in the secondary guaranteed to start.

Saturday, June 16, 2018

Position Breakdown: Inside Linebacker

Dillon Bates, 6-3, 231 - This young man arrived to much fanfare, but an injury as a freshman threw him off track and getting back on track has been difficult. After starting his freshman season with six tackles in four games, he didn't register any stats as a redshirt freshman despite playing in all 13 games on special teams. Things went a bit better as a redshirt sophomore with 3 tackles and a pair of fumble recoveries, and last season saw him record six tackles in ten games. A new staff means a new start, and Bates will work to take advantage of the opportunity. At worst, Bates is an excellent special teams performer and quality reserve.

Daniel Bituli, 6-3, 242 - Perhaps no returning starter from last season on defense is expected to take as big an additional step forward as Bituli, who became a reliable player on an unreliable defense last year. He started eight games and played in all twelve, stacking up 90 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 3 passes defended, a forced fumble, and an interception that he returned 97 yards for a touchdown. He was a solid all-around linebacker last season, but he's still got room to grow. He showed an excellent ability to attack in high school and that didn't entirely materialize last year, but some of that has to do with

Will Ignont, 6-1, 234 - Ignont joined the Vols, bringing with him plenty of excitement around the athletic linebacker, and the consensus top 20 inside linebacker played in six games with five tackles as a true freshman last year. Now he's one of the top candidates to compete for a #2 job at inside linebacker. As he continues to put on more weight and add strength, Ignont should see his role steadily grow. A quick and active linebacker who made a number of plays behind the line in high school, Ignont looks like a good fit for the new 3-4 and he's a solid candidate to be the #2 Mike linebacker.

Darrin Kirkland Jr., 6-1, 240 - When healthy, Kirkland has been very good. Unfortunately, healthy hasn't been happening for the better part of the past two seasons. Through his first two seasons with the Vols, Kirkland had 111 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 2 passes defended, a fumble recovery, and an interception despite missing five games as a sophomore. He missed the entirety of his junior campaign, and now the redshirt junior will look to get back on track in a new defensive scheme. Kirkland will compete for either the Will or Mike spot, but he's likely not guaranteed a job at either spot with the emergence of Bituli and soon to be discussed Quart'e Sapp. Still, don't bet against this talented, athletic, and experienced defender.

Solon Page III, 6-2, 220 - Page arrived in Knoxville too skinny to contribute right away and redshirted last season, but to say he was productive in high school is a bit of an understatement. In three seasons, he put up 359 tackles, 43 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, 3 interceptions, 5 forced fumbles, and 5 fumble recoveries. He was an outside linebacker in high school, he's too small for the role in the new defensive scheme, but he could be a perfect fit for the Will linebacker role on the inside in the 3-4. Long, athletic, and active, Page certainly has the skill set to make an impact before his time in Knoxville is done, but this season he's likely to find himself in a reserve role.

Shanon Reid, 6-0, 224 - Reid is very, very athletic. Like, 4.4 forty athletic. While not the biggest linebacker on the roster by any means, he might be easily the quickest of the bunch. Although he only had one tackle in seven games last season, his high school numbers show nice productivity. In three seasons, he had 253 tackles, 29 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, 4 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, and 3 fumble recoveries. Safety speed in a linebacker body is a rare combo, so it may just be a matter of time until he makes a bigger impact with the Vols.

Quart'e Sapp, 6-2, 230 - Sapp had teased fans with his ability and athleticism his first two seasons in Knoxville, looking like a potential star in spring and fall camp, but never really being able to stay healthy enough to show out during the season, registering just four tackles through six game in his first two seasons on campus. Then last year, as a redshirt sophomore, it finally started coming together. He finished the season with 8 starts while playing in all twelve games with 78 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, and 2 passes defended. That may just be a tease of what he can do if his high school stats over two seasons tell the real story, as he had 239 tackles, 35 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, 7 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery in his final two high school seasons. Sapp has been steadily growing and building on his frame, and now he'll have a chance to compete for one of the two starting inside linebacker jobs. He might very well be someone to bet on rather than bet against.

Saturday, June 9, 2018

Position Breakdown: Outside Linebacker

Jordan Allen, 6-4, 240 - A high school receiver and defensive back who then enrolled and redshirted with UC Davis before spending a year at City College of San Francisco where he played defensive end. Now he's at Tennessee where he will be playing the Jack position, a hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end role, or the Sam, a strongside linebacker that is also asked to support in pass rushing when in a 3-4 front. In his first season as a defensive end, he had 27 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, and 4.5 sacks, solidifying himself as one of the top JUCO players in the 2018 cycle. His first spring on campus didn't necessarily see him stake his claim on a starting job, but he did seem to at least find a spot in the rotation, although the competition for playing time might be growing a bit. Allen doesn't need to be a starter in the first of his three seasons on campus given the transition he's made in a couple short years.

Deandre Johnson, 6-4, 272 - So, I did include Johnson at defensive end, but considering one spot is a hybrid defensive end and outside linebacker and Johnson spent the spring at that Jack position it only makes sense to include him in this article as well. Bear in mind that the 272 prediction for his weight is based on the idea that they would use him as a 3-4 end, but if they use him in this stand-up role, I think they may work to keep him in the 255-260 range. He is an athletic defensive lineman who may well be able to transition outside linebacker, but some of how he'll be used again falls to who plays nose guard, who plays defensive end, and what the needs are at outside linebacker, so all of this is a bit of projection, hence guys who show up more than once. Johnson seemed to perform alright at Jack this spring so it's certainly not outside of the realm of possibility that he'll stick in this role.

Jonathan Kongbo, 6-6, 277 - Kongbo arrived in Knoxville as the #1 overall JUCO player in the class of 2016, and the expectations were correspondingly high, so his production through two seasons has overall been a disappointment for fans. Has he been a bad player? No, but when you come in with that level of expectation being a passable starter just isn't really enough to live up to the hype. Now, I talked about him at defensive end, but now outside linebacker has also been put on the table for him and there could be some upside at giving him a chance to rush the passer with a bit more space and out of a two point stance. Again, keeping him slimmed down might be part of the challenge to move him to such a role, but this is at least worth keeping an eye on as the staff looks to maximize the potential and production of each player on the roster.

JJ Peterson, 6-3, 235 - Peterson can play any of the four linebacker spots, but his clearest path to a potential starting job might be at an outside linebacker spot. First, he needs to get on campus, but he's eyeballing enrolling in July and of the players who might not have made it in for the first summer session, Peterson was probably the one the staff might feel most comfortable with it due to his physical development already. Peterson is a very active linebacker who attacks well but can also drop back into coverage when the situation calls for it. He is fast enough that he returned kickoffs in high school, even returning one for a touchdown as a junior, taking it 98 yards to the house. He also played a bit of receiver as well, then on defense he had 210 tackles, 29 tackles for loss, 15.5 sacks, 40 quarterback hurries, 2 passes defended, 3 fumble recoveries, and a couple of forced fumbles in three years, so he can play just a bit. His biggest challenge at this point is going to be making the jump from high school to the SEC. Other than that, he looks the part of an immediate impact player.

Austin Smith, 6-3, 241 - The promise he showed as a freshman hasn't yet materialized again since that time due to injuries, but when he's healthy Smith has the size, skill set, and knowledge from his high school years operating within a 3-4 defense. He is the ideal fit for outside linebacker in the new scheme, but his health is his biggest challenge to be overcome. If he can put his injuries behind him, there's a great opportunity for him. Ultimately, he fits the mold, but he's going to stand as an unknown commodity for now and likely is at best a rotational piece for the coming season.

Darrell Taylor, 6-4, 256 - Along with Kongbo, Taylor was one of the Vols starting defensive ends for much of last season, but now he has moved to linebacker, a position he played in high school in spots in addition to his primary work at defensive end. Also a high school wide receiver, he has athleticism to spare, and just for good measure he also played basketball, so endurance isn't much of a concern either. His biggest thing upon arriving on campus was the need for a redshirt year to add weight. He hasn't made a huge mark yet, but he had a solid redshirt sophomore campaign last year. This might be the ideal defensive scheme for Taylor, who can make use of his athleticism better from a two point stance.

Ryan Thaxton, 6-4, 245 - Another former two sport high school guy, Thaxton also played football and basketball. He's not the blazing fast but he's certainly athletic enough to play in this scheme, and he might be a bit more of a natural to play in a two point stance as he is inclined to play with his pad level too high at times. He's been noted as an intelligent player and should adapt well, even though he probably isn't going to be one of the top two options at any of the linebacker spots this season, but that has more to do with his continued physical development as he came in on the skinny side out of high school. He showed good recognition skills and the ability to go out and make plays in the open field in high school, so even if he's never a starter in Knoxville, he looks like a contributor on defense perhaps as early as 2019.