Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Top Performing Newcomers for 2018

It's no secret that a new staff often opens the door for new contributors, and many times the first class of commitments get chances to start that might not normally be available to them. Tennessee in 2018 will be no different. In fact, I don't think this is a full list of potential year one contributors for the Vols this coming season. I could see as many as six additional names, but these are the safe bets for this coming season to find their way onto the field.

OFFENSE
Dominick Wood-Anderson: Tennessee simply didn't have anyone on the roster like Wood-Anderson at tight end. Not even close. A dynamic athlete with the size and speed to stretch the field and make plays. He also has the size to block when lined up like a traditional tight end. In two junior college seasons, Wood-Anderson had 43 receptions for 476 yards and 4 touchdowns. He's only getting better as well. A starting job looks like his to lose at this point. Remember his name. He could be All-SEC before he's done in Knoxville. In preparation of playing in the SEC, he's reportedly bulked up as tight end coach Brian Niedermeyer has stated he's up to 258.

Alontae Taylor: Taylor is raw as a receiver, but he's as dynamic an athlete as you'll find in the country. I mean, what else can you say about a kid who passed for 1,746 yards, rushed for 6,000 yards, caught for 479 yards, had 43 tackles with 5 tackles for loss and 2 sacks along with an interception and a fumble recovery, and 187 return yards on just 7 returns. All told, he accounted for 87 touchdowns either as a passer, receiver, runner, or returner. With an athlete who does so much, it's only natural to assume he'll make an impact, especially since he enrolled early. He's likely to find himself at slot receiver and I'll wager we'll see him early and often. He will be a top playmaker in the SEC.

Jerome Carvin - Tennessee's offensive line wasn't great last year. Okay, it was bad. That's why it's not a stretch to think Carvin could find himself as a starter as a freshman. Carvin is big, aggressive, and strong. At 6-4, 330, he can play tackle or guard. I'm of the opinion that he'll find his home at guard, not because he couldn't play tackle but because Drew Richmond, Trey Smith, and Marcus Tatum all have starts at tackle and the long JUCO transfer Jahmir Johnson looks likely to add to the tackle options. Perhaps Chance Hall as well if he's healthy enough to contribute. Carvin is the type of mauler that Smith was last year at the guard position, but he probably isn't athletic enough to do some of the things on the edge that Smith was able to do. Even so, I think Carvin can be an upgrade on the offensive line.

Jahmir Johnson: This was one of the big early signing pulls for the Vols along with Carvin and Wood-Anderson. Johnson is incredibly athletic at offensive tackle. In the right situation, he could be a big blocking tight end. He moves that well. He's on the skinny side at 290, but once he gets on campus in May it's reasonable to think he'll add good weight before the beginning of the season. As with Carvin, the offensive line is in need of improved play and Johnson has been brought in specifically to be part of that equation. He is likely capable of playing tackle or guard, but with his athleticism he may be best served to play on the edge.

Jeremy Banks: I had a real dilemma here because I'm not entirely certain how much Banks will play, and I could see offensive lineman Ollie Lane or receiver Cedric Tillman being early contributors, but ultimately the nod went to Banks because he is the type of back the new staff sought out due to a lack of taller, bigger backs. Banks is three inches taller than every other back on the roster and by the start of next season could be over 220 pounds comfortably. It's tough to gauge how many carries he'll get with Ty Chandler, Tim Jordan, Carlin Fils-aime, and Trey Coleman in the mix as well, but Banks has a unique build in that mix and it's tough to imagine he won't ultimately see touches in some capacity.

DEFENSE
Jordan Allen: One of the best stories in the class. Allen hadn't heard from Tennessee until a week from early signing. His mother turned the coaches away initially before allowing them to recruit her son. His mother is battling cancer, but she made a point of making sure her son enrolled early at Tennessee. He is a former high school defensive back and receiver who has made the transition to linebacker/defensive end. He initially attended UC-Davis out of high school before opting to head to a junior college for a chance to play at a higher level after redshirting as a freshman. Now at Tennessee, the hyper-athletic and long linebacker looks to build on his success as a redshirt freshman in his first season on the defensive line, where he had 27 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, and 4.5 sacks. He tossed in a couple passes broken up and a blocked kick for good measure. With the move to a 3-4 base, he is the type of pass rushing linebacker Tennessee seemingly had a lack of heading into the upcoming season. While he'll no doubt have to earn his place, it seems inevitable that he will find a spot in the rotation.

Greg Emerson: Emerson was forced to miss his senior season after injuries suffered at Nike's The Opening, but he appears to be on the mend and may even be full go in time for spring football, and that's very good news for the Vols. Emerson is big, strong, and very athletic. He ran in the 4.8 range at over 290 between his junior and senior seasons, and during early signing he was announced at 6-3, 280. Of course, he has since been mentioned by at least one staff member as 6-5, 305. Height discrepancies aside, his athleticism is indisputable regardless of his weight. The bigger he is, the better as he could play 3-4 end or 4-3 defensive tackle. Emerson fits the part of the type of defensive linemen the staff seems likely to pursue moving forward, and keeping him in the fold through the coaching change was a stroke of brilliance.

JJ Peterson: Peterson was the big National Signing Day addition that got fans excited, and for good reason. Peterson is the type of linebacker the excels in the defenses of coaches like Saban, Pruitt, and Smart, and all three coaches wanted him in a bad way. In the end, his relationship with Pruitt saw Peterson land at Tennessee, and he has a real shot to start early and often in his Tennessee career. Peterson has the ability to cover as a linebacker, but where he really excelled in high school was as a disruptive force, attacking downhill. His high school seems to have treated tackles for loss and sacks as completely separate, so in actuality it appears he had 44.5 tackles for loss with his 15.5 sacks over the course of three seasons. He also had 210 tackles and 40 quarterback pressures. While probably not ideal for the Jack role, he could likely play any of the other three linebacker spots, and he may have a very good shot at the strongside linebacker spot.

Emmit Gooden: Gooden had issues with qualifying out of high school, which led to him and Tennessee parting ways at that time. Concerns about academics almost kept this from happening this time around too, but a late unofficial visit saw both sides part feeling good about the academic situation and Emmit Gooden finally came home where he belongs in Knoxville. For a team needing to find answers at nose guard following the early departure of big man Kahlil McKenzie, the 6-4, 305 pound active defender is a perfect fit. On film, he looks like a defensive end at times with the way he moves, but he's plenty strong enough to take on double teams. He'll get challenges for the nose guard job from Alexis Johnson and redshirt freshman Eric Crosby, but no matter who wins the job expect to see plenty of Gooden. I could have probably included Brant Lawless to this mix as well, but he's perhaps tougher to gauge in this equation than Emerson and Gooden.

Trevon Flowers: This one is absolutely a reach, but hear me out. While it's true that this baseball player has only played one season of high school football, this incredible athlete made sure it was a quality season. The stats from his senior season are incomplete, but his highlights appear to show at least three interceptions and numerous well-defended passes as well as excellent speed and instincts from his free safety position. Now, Tennessee doesn't seem to have a need at safety, but corner and Star...well, those may well be a different situation. Flowers may well be able to play any spot in the secondary, and there is plenty of uncertainty in the secondary. I won't call Flowers a favorite to win any jobs, but it's reasonable to think he can find a way to contribute with his length and athleticism. Of course, given the uncertainty in the secondary, I could also include blueshirts Brandon Davis and Joseph Norwood, but right now Flowers looks on paper like the player closest to a quick contribution.

SPECIALIST
Paxton Brooks: Tennessee has no easy task replacing Combine participant and possible late round draft selection Trevor Daniel. Indeed, Daniel was second in the nation in yards per punt last season and that despite being tied for 19th nationally in punts per game. How good was Daniel? Well, he broke records set by Jimmy Colquitt back in the early 80s. I don't think I have to tell anyone anything about the Colquitt family. 28 punts inside the 20 last season. 33 punts of over 50 yards. 81 inside 20 and 76 of 50+ over his career. Trying to replace a man who has cemented himself in the Tennessee record books won't fall solely on the true freshman Brooks. He will face competition from Joe Doyle, Grayson Linde, and Grayson Pontius, but Brooks may be the smart bet. He averaged more yards per punt than any of the other options and appears to be the most likely to take the biggest strides. He enrolled early and is going to get a jump on developing over Pontius. Doyle was the closest to Brooks in high school and he may be the biggest potential challenger now, but my guess is that at worst the two split punts based on the field position. I fully expect to see Brooks next season on the field booting punts.

Monday, February 12, 2018

Will Tennessee Have the Personnel to Install the 3-4 in Year One?

In general, the earlier a new staff can install a new style of defense, the better. There's obviously a lot of value in being able to recruit to the new scheme, but unless you're winning early on before making that transition you can wind up with the sort of situation that former Tennessee head coach Derek Dooley did in 2012 when the move from the 4-3 to the 3-4 failed and cost him his job. For that reason among others, I fully anticipate Tennessee installing the 3-4 base defense right away. Still, with only seven early enrollees including just two confirmed on the defensive side, it's worth wondering whether or not they'll have the bodies to begin that transition this spring. I think they will, but I want to explain why I think they can make that transition and how I envision players fitting in going forward.

On the defensive line, the early entry to the NFL Draft by Kahlil McKenzie was a bit problematic for the nose guard position. McKenzie was the Vols' best run defender on the line last year and appeared to be the most capable tackle of smoothly making that transition. Well, at least among those who played last year. Even so, the personnel in place is where the most likely options at nose guard will come from. Alexis Johnson is the first name you'll want to get to know better. He was the second highest graded defensive tackle by Pro Football Focus last season for the Vols, and that was as the backup to McKenzie. At 6-4, 300 pounds, he has the mass to hold up against double teams. The fifth year senior is already fairly well developed physically, but he should benefit from another season in the weight room. It's also worth keeping an eye on redshirt freshman Eric Crosby. Crosby was redshirted last year in order to trim weight and improve his conditioning, but the big bodied lineman certainly looks the part at 6-1, 336. If his conditioning is where it needs to be, he could be a disruptive nose using the athleticism that allowed him to play running back in high school. Shy Tuttle is also a possibility at the nose if he doesn't land at end instead. Given the fact that nose guards frequently need to take on double teams and Tuttle has had some issues with the health of his legs, it may be better to put him at the 5-technique end spot where he's less likely to have to take on multiple blockers. Either way, that's at least two legitimate options for nose guard, and maybe three, but in this class there is at least one strong candidate for the job in JUCO transfer Emmit Gooden, a 6-4, 305 pound beast who has taken a long and winding road to Knoxville.

As for the defensive end spots, the two aren't exactly created equal even though they have similar responsibilities in the 3-4 look. In general, one is meant to serve as a bigger traditional end and the other is an athletic 4-3 defensive tackle type who would typically play the 3-technique role. For the more traditional end role, there are several candidates, but perhaps none that seem as natural of fits as Jonathan Kongbo and Kyle Phillips. Both had solid if not unspectacular seasons last year, combining for 64 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, and 4.5 sacks. Matthew Butler could be another interesting option in that role as he straddles the line between tackle and end. Deandre Johnson could stick at end as well after a serious weight gain last year as a freshman, but he could also shed some weight and move to linebacker. True freshman early enrollee Greg Emerson is a big bodied defensive end who may have had the athleticism to remain at end even in the 4-3. Emerson, at 6-3, 280, could be a candidate at the other end spot. In addition to these two and Emerson, I would also take a good look at incoming freshman Brant Lawless, a highly productive high school defensive tackle who put on display the ability to be a disruptive force. As a 5-technique end, he could excel.  At this point, I'd say these are the primary candidates to play end opposite the Jack linebacker, a hybrid linebacker/defensive end. Long-term, signees John Mincey and Kurott Garland seem likely to grow into this role as well, although Garland could potentially end up at linebacker depending on how he develops.

At the end/tackle spot, a bigger defensive lineman who can slide inside to a 3-technique role when the front shifts, Kivon Bennett and Quay Picou are two who immediately come to mind. Both are smaller, compact, and quick defensive tackles who haven't played much due to their size limitations in the 4-3, but in the 3-4 both could make noise early and often. Emerson could also be a candidate here as Pruitt has suggested that he's been doing a fair bit of growing. Although forced to delay his enrollment until summer, Kingston Harris is another player who could get a look at end, although long-term he seems likely to grow into the nose guard role. Shy Tuttle, if he doesn't end up at nose guard, seems perfect for this role and if he isn't at nose should be considered a favorite to win this job as this spot shifts inside to 3-technique defensive tackle in four man fronts.

The Jack is a hybrid linebacker/defensive end, and Tennessee has quite a few potential candidates for this pass rushing specialist. As far as bodies already in place on the roster, Darrell Taylor is a solid candidate. One of the leaner ends on the team last season, Taylor has the body type and speed to get the job done in this position. He was timed at around 4.6 coming out of high school, where he played wide receiver in addition to defensive end. Another couple options in place on the roster are Ja'Quain Blakely and Austin Smith, both of whom have bounced around between end and linebacker. Both players were in similar 3-4 schemes in high school and should transition naturally. Ryan Thaxton, an undersized end brought in last cycle, might be a tougher one to figure out how he fits. There are questions regarding whether or not he has the athleticism to transition to linebacker, but he certainly doesn't have the size for end now. How he fits in the future will heavily depend on how he develops this off-season. Newcomer Jordan Allen could potentially play the Jack or the strongside position on the other side. Incredibly athletic, he's on the raw side but his potential is sky high.

At the inside linebacker spots, they tend to be somewhat interchangeable, but there do appear to be a couple clear front runners for the jobs in Darrin Kirkland Jr. and Daniel Bituli. Bituli's emergence at middle linebacker last season may give him the potential to win the same job this season over Kirkland, who would then likely slide over to weakside linebacker, where his speed could be an asset when the defense shifts to a four man front. Other options are Will Ignont, who played little last year but showed some promise, and Quart'e Sapp, the heir apparent at weakside linebacker. Another potential factor for these jobs is JJ Peterson, one of the big National Signing Day additions. He played outside linebacker in high school, but at 6-2, 231 he could potentially play at any spot with the possible exception of Jack. All that said, strongside linebacker is probably where I would look for JJ to make an impact.

Speaking of strongside linebacker, this is probably also going to represent Austin Smith's best potential landing spot. That could make this summer fun if it does become a Smith-Peterson competition for the job. Realistically, I couldn't make a clear pick for the winner but injury issues have plagued Smith so that may ultimately be the deciding factor. Dillon Bates seems like a solid strongside candidate as well as the redshirt senior looks to salvage his last season on the Hill. Injuries, size concerns, and inconsistency have plagued the talented linebacker after a promising start to his freshman season. As previously stated, Allen could get a look here if he's not one of the top two at Jack.

I think I'll approach the corners as one group. On signing day, Pruitt essentially indicated that he didn't think things at corner were as grim as fans thought, and he might not be entirely wrong assuming some of what's anticipated comes to pass. Cheyenne Labruzza and Shawn Shamburger certainly look the part of the bigger corners that Pruitt and staff covets with both standing 6-0 and around 190 or so. Baylen Buchanan and Marquill Osborne aren't too far off around 5-11 and 185-190. That's the positive spin. The flip-side to that though is the combined career 54 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, and a pass defended. So proven production has been lacking. Terrell Bailey is likely to be in the same range as Buchanan and Osborne by the time fall camp arrives and the redshirt freshman could work to find a role in the secondary. That's the grim news. Here are the potential upsides. Tyler Byrd to the defensive side of the ball seems increasingly likely. At 6-0, 195, he fully looks the part of the corners in this defense, and considering he was the #10 corner in the class of 2016 it's time to move him to defense. The offensive experiment made some sense at the time, but coming off a season in which Byrd caught 3 passes for 27 yards and had 2 carries for 19 yards, the experiment is over. The three defensive backs added on national signing day (two will be blueshirts) are all intriguing possibilities. Although on the skinny side at 5-11, 160, Brandon Davis was very productive in high school with 86 tackles, 37 passes defended, and 13 interceptions in three years. If he can somehow add enough weight, he might just be part of the secondary solution, but realistically one would think he might redshirt. Then there's a couple of raw additions in Trevon Flowers and Joseph Norwood, both of which stand around 6-1 and possessing excellent athleticism. Flowers has only played one season of high school football but showed good instincts and has the weight to play early at 185. Norwood missed his junior season but emerged late on a few teams' radars after a strong senior campaign. Although 170, he plays bigger than that and at either corner or maybe Star (up next), he could be at least part of the rotation.

Onward to the Star, a hybrid nickel/safety role that tends to operate like a third safety on the field. At least early on, I like either Todd Kelly Jr. or Micah Abernathy here, with the other likely fitting in at one of the safety spots. I lean Abernathy here because I think he fits better as a bigger safety close to the line of scrimmage, while the ball-hawking Kelly might be best served offering support on the back-end of the defense. As previously mentioned, Norwood could be an option here as the hard hitting defensive back seems made for a role like this.

At the safety spots, Nigel Warrior is a no-brainer at one spot. He is a true rising star and one of the best safeties in the SEC and likely the country. He will only get better under the new staff. If he's healthy, Kelly seems like the best option for the other safety spot, but certainly not the only option. Maleik Gray and Theo Jackson are both players on the rise and have the ideal height for the new defense. As both continues to develop physically and receive the coaching they deserve, they could become huge additions to the rotation at safety or Star. Norwood likely doesn't have the size for safety at this point, but Flowers could be a candidate here if he doesn't find a home as a corner first.

The conclusion on this end is that the pieces are at least present, but a lot will hinge on coaching and development as to how well this transition can be executed. Talent was never lacking under Jones, but chaos with the strength and conditioning program as well as a lack of player development from a technique perspective has stunted this group. It's clear that this isn't an issue that can be fixed in a single off-season, but that doesn't mean that the defense can't be better than last year and at least middle of the road in the SEC, which should be considered progress after teams failed to ever even bother trying to pass as the run defense was so bad that they might as well have never taken the field. They don't need to join Alabama or Georgia as the top of the conference in season one. They just need to take real and meaningful steps forward to improve, and this staff appears up to the task and looks to have the pieces in place to work with.

Thursday, February 8, 2018

National Signing Day and the Final Class

Tennessee has put a wrap on the 2018 recruiting class. Probably. Well, maybe. I doubt it, but we won't know what other additions they might make anytime soon since signing for high school seniors and JUCOs doesn't end until April 1st and there isn't really a timetable for grad transfers beyond the start of the fall semester. Certainly head coach Jeremy Pruitt insinuated as much last night, and it does appear that they have a bit of flexibility to make further moves either by using blueshirts (enrolling a player as a walk-on and placing them on scholarship at the start of the fall semester in order for them to count towards the next recruiting cycle) or the one or two currently unused scholarships from this past cycle. That said, let's cover the guys we know to be joining the team this coming season. The first eight names will be the players who were added yesterday, followed by the early signees below that.

NATIONAL SIGNING DAY ADDITIONS

Wide receiver Cedric Tillman - Tillman was something of a late bloomer, undergoing a growth spurt between his junior and senior seasons in addition to missing a fair chunk of his junior season with injuries and his entire sophomore season with a broken forearm. As a junior he had just 8 receptions for 73 yards and 2 touchdowns before exploding as a senior with 37 receptions for 774 yards and 7 touchdowns. For good measure, his only punt return was taken back 69 yards for a touchdown. He's a big bodied young man at 6-3, 205 and has shown the ability to use his big frame to body his way through defenders, as well as using his length to win jump balls. Averaging over 20 yards per reception as a senior showed off his speed, which he says has been timed as fast as 4.55 in the forty. He played for his father, former Broncos and Jags receiver Cedric Tillman Sr., at powerhouse Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas. His older brother, Jamir Tillman, is 2nd in receiving yards in Navy history. Tillman's pedigree, size, and potential make him a solid pickup for the receiving corps, particularly given the need for some size at the position. With the as of yet uncertain status of Jauan Jennings, Tillman is only the second receiver for the Vols standing over 6-2.

Defensive lineman Kurott Garland - A late find who had a fairly quiet recruitment, Garland was highly productive over his last two high school seasons, accumulating 251 tackles, 65 tackles for loss, and 24.5 sacks. For good measure, he pitched in 31 quarterback pressures, an interception, three passes defended, three fumble recoveries, and a trio of forced fumbles. It's fair to say the staff really likes his game as Pruitt compared the 6-3, 250 pound Garland to 2017 second round NFL Draft pick and former Alabama defensive lineman Dalvin Tomlinson. Garland shows a quick first step and consistent pressure to go with decent length and a frame capable of holding another 15-20 pounds. Garland was a Georgia Class AAAAAA All-State honorable mention performer as a senior in addition to being named Region 3-AAAAAA Defensive Player of the Year. He may have a tough time seeing the field early unless he can add some weight or find a role at linebacker, but he certainly looks like a player capable of becoming a high level contributor once he develops.

Defensive lineman Emmit Gooden - This should have happened three years ago, but the academics just weren't in order at that time. Now, Tennessee gets themselves a big, productive nose guard candidate from the JUCO ranks to compete with returning options like Alexis Johnson and Eric Crosby. To be fair, saying that Gooden has been productive might be underselling things just a bit. In three seasons in high school, he had 213 tackles, 81 tackles for loss, and 24.5 sacks. In his two junior college seasons, he had 136 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, and 5 sacks. That means that over the past five seasons at two different levels of competition, Gooden has accounted for a total of 349 tackles, 101 tackles for loss, and 29.5 sacks! The 6-4, 305 pound monster tackle has a high motor and the physicality to take on double teams when called to do so while still being productive. With Kahlil McKenzie off to the NFL Draft, this was a much needed addition to the defensive line.

Defensive lineman John Mincey - When I watch film of Mincey, I'm quickly reminded of 2017 freshman defensive lineman Matthew Butler's high school film, and that's a very good thing. Butler will be one of the most natural fits as the team moves to more 3-4 looks as he straddles the line between big bodied defensive end and athletic defensive tackle. Mincey still has growing to do, but his style of play is very much in that same mold. He is strong at the point of attack and batters blockers with his physical playing style. At 6-4, 255, he looks every bit the part and won't need to add too much weight to be capable of finding a spot in the rotation. His bigger challenge will likely come from the plethora of options on the defensive line either returning from last season or joining as part of the six man defensive line class. This is a young man South Carolina is upset to have missed out on.

Linebacker JJ Peterson - The darling of NSD for the Vols, Peterson was at one time believed to be likely to head to Alabama prior to the hire of Jeremy Pruitt, but he got on campus as soon as the winter dead period ended, committed, and stuck with the Vols through the month of January and start of February. How good an athlete is Peterson? Well, he played some receiver, catching 9 passes for 163 yards and 3 touchdowns, returned 21 kickoffs for 495 yards and a touchdown, and ran for a two point conversion. Oh, and his defense? Well, 210 tackles, 29 tackles for loss, 15.5 sacks, 40 quarterback pressures, two passes defended, 3 fumble recoveries, and a forced fumble over three years is none too shabby for the 6-2, 231 pounder. Peterson can likely play at least three of the four linebacker spots in the 3-4 look, although long-term his best fit may be found at strongside linebacker where he will find more opportunities to rush the passer. He is certainly a player who is capable of and may very well push for a starting job.

Defensive back Trevon Flowers - Originally signed to play baseball at Kentucky, Flowers began looking around again when it was brought to his attention that Kentucky may not have a scholarship waiting for him and that he was an increasingly hot commodity as a football player. Now, he's set to play both baseball and football for the Vols. Flowers hadn't played football since middle school until he decided to return to the gridiron as a senior, and what a senior season he had. As a safety, he had at least three interceptions as well showing off good instincts as a safety and a high level of aggression as a tackler. Considering his 60 yard dash was timed at a sub-6.7 (average base running generally being 6.9-6.7 seconds), he's a strong base runner on the baseball field. That is the baseball equivalent to the 40 yard dash in football, and his would likely fall in the 4.4-4.5 range. Although he played safety as a senior, it's quite possible that he could get his first look at corner for the Vols, who beat out Clemson for his signature on NSD.

Defensive back Brandon Davis - Vol fans didn't see his name announced on NSD, and that's because he will actually be a blueshirt with the program, meaning he will walk on this summer and be placed on scholarship when fall classes begin so he can be counted toward the 2019 class numbers. Davis was discovered as a result of the staff's pursuit of his teammate, tight end Glenn Beal, but Davis is far from a consolation prize in their pursuit of Beal. Davis is on the small side for what the staff typically pursues at the corner position as he measures in at 5-11, 160, but he more than made up for that with production in high school. He had 86 tackles, 37 passes defended, 13 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, and 2 forced fumbles over three seasons while also scoring 4 defensive touchdowns, three off of interceptions and one on the fumble recovery. It may also bear mentioning that he's not too shabby at baseball either, and it has been mentioned he too may look at the possibility of playing both sports.

Defensive back Joseph Norwood - He was the latest offer for the Vols, with his blueshirt offer being extended to him on NSD, but the 247Sports 4-star brings to the table the type of hard-hitting, aggressive style of play that the new staff covets. He didn't play as a junior following his transfer from Ooltewah to Brainerd, but in his return he displayed great instincts on top of his aggressive style of play. At 6-1, 170 and with his having only played as a sophomore and senior, he's likely to be something of a developmental project, but his coverage skills are solid and he forces turnovers both in coverage and as a tackler. He can play a little wideout too, but it's clear that his upside is on defense.

EARLY SIGNING PERIOD ADDITIONS

Quarterback JT Shrout - Shrout is an intriguing addition. He's the sort of player who checks all the boxes as far as his technique, size, footwork, etc., but his stats don't fill fans with confidence. Shrout only started a single season in high school as a senior, but he did get some work as a backup during his sophomore and junior seasons. For his career, he's accounted for 3,304 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions with 311 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns. At 6-3, 190, Shrout isn't a burner on the run but he can be reasonably effective in creating enough with his legs to take what the defense is giving him. He has pro-level mechanics and an arm that can launch a deep pass. Shrout's high school offensive line wasn't anything particularly great, and he was often left to do work on the move. His receivers also weren't anything special, so he would have to force things at times. Given how many good throws I saw from him with defenders right in his face, it is a bit more difficult to blame him for the fact that he had a low completion percentage and high interception rate. On paper, he's raw. On film and in person, he looks like a future professional quarterback. Given good protection and decent receivers, he could be a quarterback who puts up big numbers.

Running back Jeremy Banks - Talk about a guy who exploded as a senior! Banks had a good but unspectacular junior season. Certainly nothing that would make him an elite recruit. 140 carries, 815 yards, and 16 touchdowns. Good numbers, but really the kind of numbers that make you think SEC talent. Then he had that elite senior campaign. 198 carries, 1,941 yards, and 32 touchdowns. Only 58 more carries, but more than double the yards, nearly 10 yards per carry, and twice the touchdowns. For anyone wondering why he saw the huge jump in his numbers, he split carries with Lincoln University of Missouri freshman running back Harold Lacy, who led LU in touchdowns and was second in rushing yards last season. This past season, Banks ran the show, with the next closest running back in carries having 80 for 707 yards and six touchdowns. At 6-2, 215, Banks is a load with constantly churning legs and better than expected speed. His forty times have been all over the place as far as listings go, but when it comes to playing speed I'd guess he's probably somewhere in the 4.55 range. His poor running at The Opening Regional in New Orleans doesn't line up at all with the speed he shows on film. He's a willing and brutal blocker with the power to rip through arm tackles and the athleticism to leap over guys trying to tackle him low. He fits the new model of running back that Jeremy Pruitt wants to work into the mix with the smaller, faster running backs already on the roster.

Wide receiver Alontae Taylor (EE) - Taylor is the most intriguing name among the early signees. He is an insanely productive athlete who looks to play wide receiver for the Vols. He sincerely did a bit of everything for Coffee County, passing for 1,746 yards, running for 6,000 yards, catching for 479 yards, returning kickoffs to the tune of 172 yards (on just six returns), and tossing in some solid defensive play for good measure. He tossed 10 touchdowns as a passer, and had 75 as a runner, receiver, and returner. He genuinely does it all, and he is somewhat reminiscent of Randall Cobb. He's a true offensive weapon that gives the coaches flexibility to run trick plays. He's not the biggest player. He's not the fastest. He's not the strongest. He's just a playmaker, no matter what position he's playing. At 6-0, 184, he's going to be a good sized receiver, whether he's out wide or in the slot. He's still raw as a receiver, but he's going to be virtually impossible to keep off the field next season. He's just too productive.

Tight end Jacob Warren (EE) - Right now, Warren looks more like a wide receiver than a tight end, but at 6-6, 211 he has room to grow and then some. He has the willingness to work as a blocker and really doesn't have the speed for wideout, but he can easily grow to 240-250 pounds. Over the last two seasons, he had 68 receptions for 1,138 yards and 17 touchdowns. Warren averaged 16.5 yards per reception, so as tight ends go he's definitely a big play threat. He has had a career long reception for 75 yards coming this season. Although he will probably need time to build up his body in order to play tight end, if he can add good weight in a hurry, he could find a way to be a weapon, either at tight end or as a large possession receiver.

Tight end Dominick Wood-Anderson (EE) - This 6-5, 245 pound former high school quarterback joins Tennessee ranked as the #1 tight end coming from the JUCO ranks. He wasn't wildly productive from a pure numbers standpoint, but he was second on Arizona Western in receptions last season and third in yards and touchdowns for a team that didn't pass nearly as much as they ran the ball. He's a dynamic receiver when given the chance to be and a willing and capable blocker. In two seasons, Wood-Anderson had 43 receptions for 476 yards and four touchdowns while helping to pave the way for a strong rushing attack. Alabama's coaches had drawn the comparison to OJ Howard with Wood-Anderson. Vol fans can only hope he can be that productive for the next two seasons.

Offensive lineman Tanner Antonutti - Once a tight end, Antonutti began to make the transition to offensive tackle last season, and at 6-5, 275 pounds he's on his way to growing into the role. He allowed fewer than 5 sacks through his ten games as a senior, so it's clear his athleticism is translating to his new role. It's not hard to find a highlight of him clearing a running lane and moving the defender, and he's not yet at ideal size for the role. He's been working to add good weight, and if he can arrive on campus close around 285, he should at worst be able to help offer some depth on the offensive line.

Offensive lineman Jerome Carvin (EE) - 6-4, 330 pounds of road grading offensive guard/right tackle is everything you want from a big bodied blocker. Carvin thrives on doing his job, but he truly thrives on putting the defender on his backside. He's a strong, brutal blocker who always makes a point of finishing the block and keeping his defender out of the play. He may not have enough length to play left tackle, and his future is likely at guard. That said, he could play right tackle if needed. He is somewhat similar to Kyler Kerbyson as far as his versatility is concerned in that he can help out at a few positions as needed. Carvin has a real chance to help this team out right away, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if he happened to be starting at guard when the season begins.

Offensive lineman Ollie Lane (EE) - Lane is a strong interior lineman with decent leverage and a good finish on his blocks. He moves well for his size (6-5, 285) and has the potential to play guard or center. As an early enrollee, he'll be able to get a jump on strength and conditioning as well as transitioning to center if that is ultimately the plan for him. Lane is a guy who could prove to be a steal, in the same way that Brett Kendrick was for the Vols. Don't be surprised if Lane outplays his ranking.

Defensive lineman Greg Emerson (EE) - Emerson is currently the highest ranked defensive signee for the Vols, and highest ranked signee overall. That despite having to sit out his senior season following an injury at The Opening. Emerson is a big, athletic end at 6-3, 280 and is more than capable of fitting in as a 3-4 end and even a 4-3 end when the front shifts. He is big, but having run a 4.84 forty at The Opening before getting hurt he's plenty quick enough to contribute as an end in either scheme. In fact, it's faster than Derek Barnett's forty at the NFL Combine. Emerson might be the signee who committed to Butch Jones who could benefit most from the coaching change because he's completely suited for the new scheme.

Defensive lineman Kingston Harris (EE) -  Harris was one of the first players with no relationship with Tennessee's previous staff to jump on board with Pruitt and company. Harris was a productive player for IMG Academy, which is almost like snagging a guy out of the JUCO ranks. That's how IMG runs their show. They're being prepped for the college game. Harris is a big guy at 6-4, 272 and he's probably not going to wow anybody in a Combine setting, but he gives 100% every play. On a defensive line with three 5-star recruits lining up around him, Harris still did more than his fair share of work in two years with the program with 40 tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks. As a freshman and sophomore at Orlando Christian Prep, he put up 93 tackles, 6.0 tackles for loss, and 5.5 sacks. Harris is probably best suited to play end right now, but as an early enrollee the staff may be able to work on trying to reshape his body to be able to play inside at nose, where his lack of elite athleticism will be less of an issue as a run stuffer. Regardless, as with many early enrollees, he could be a candidate to contribute early.

Defensive lineman Brant Lawless - To say that Brant Lawless was a productive high school defensive lineman is something of an understatement. 159 tackles, 48.5 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks, and 5 fumble recoveries in four seasons. To give some perspective, if rounded out, that's 40 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks per season. Those are numbers that put guys in the NFL. It's hard to say for certain how Lawless might fit in the new defense long-term, but at least next season he's likely to get his start at end at 6-3, 285. Lawless shows the ability to be very disruptive, and that may allow him to stick at end long-term while shifting inside in a 4-3 look. Lawless is someone I'd be willing to say will continue to be a productive defender in his college career.

Linebacker/defensive end Jordan Allen (EE) - How quickly can a player morph into another position? Consider this: as a high school senior, Allen was a wide receiver and defensive back while participating in basketball and track and field as well. Now he heads to Tennessee ranked as the #2 weakside defensive end in the JUCO ranks at 6-5, 230. He started off redshirting at UC Davis before transferring to City College of San Francisco. Last season he had 27 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, and 2 pass break ups in nine games played. His athleticism has translated well to his new role, and he looks poised to spend the next three years making plays from the edge as a 3-4 linebacker and 4-3 end.

Punter Paxton Brooks (EE) - A big leg, good hangtime, and the ability to flip the field as well as pin the opponent deep in their own territory. It's become the expectation of Tennessee punters over the past several years, and Brooks seems to check all the boxes of recent excellent punters in Knoxville. Brooks averaged 41.8 yards per punt as a junior and 42.4 yards per punt as a senior despite being a lanky punter at 6-5, 170. Now he's set to enter a collegiate strength and conditioning program that will help him build on his leg strength while receiving coaching to improve his technique overall. Brooks arrives on campus at a time when the Vols are looking to replace their excellent punter Trevor Daniel, who finishes his time at Tennessee with a career 45.9 yard per punt average and 82 punts downed inside the 20 and 76 punts of 50+ yards. Brooks looks to be the next great punter for the Vols, who put their last three punters into the NFL.

Tuesday, January 9, 2018

What's More Important: Recruiting Prowess or Coaching Capacity?

Do you need to be an elite recruiter to win, or can someone who coaches bring mediocre players up to an elite level? It's something that gets discussed from time to time when a team with seemingly subpar talent breaks through and plays with the big boys, or when a coach who can recruit well but might be suspect with talent development has a double-digit win season. Both certainly do happen at times. Now, it's painfully obvious that coaches who can do both are the ones who typically find themselves at the top of the mountain most often, so it's not really a zero sum game and being able to do one or the other very well is no guarantee of success. Still, at the end of the day, is one more important than the other? Well, I may not offer up a definitive answer, but I'll do my best.

Boise State. Utah State. UCF. TCU before the Big 12. Houston. Memphis. These are all clearly examples of a coach doing more with less, but they also faced lesser opponents. Justin Fuente has continued his success at Virginia Tech, although not at the level of his success at Memphis. Boise State has had success even after coaching changes. TCU maintained success in the Big 12, but the recruiting also correspondingly improved with that move. Houston has continued to have strong success in life after Tom Herman. It's complicated to evaluate these teams because of the level of competition and usual revolving door of coaches that maintain a relative degree of success. These are the types of coaches and programs people like to point to, but seeing an Urban Meyer come out of those situations is more the exception than the norm.

So instead of focusing on these situations, I'm going to shift to the elite recruiters who don't have the type of success one might expect. Butch Jones is an obvious one to Vol fans. Although he had a couple of relatively successful seasons, top 5, 10, and 15 classes never led to anything better than a nine win season. Player development was an obvious issue. That is almost universally agreed upon. Let's look at Brian Kelly then. His recruiting has been excellent at Notre Dame. Only once during his time at Notre Dame has Kelly brought in a class outside of the top 15, and yet that has led to two 10 win seasons and one national championship appearance in eight seasons and a 67% winning percentage. That's an average of 8.625 wins per season. The results remain mostly mediocre despite consistent recruiting success. Some defenders of Kelly would point to the schedule they play, but it's worth noting that their strength of schedule averages out to roughly 20th nationally and has been as low as 32nd and never higher than 7th in his eight seasons. That's roughly on par with Clemson over that same period and clearly worse than programs like Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia. Essentially, what I'm saying is that recruiting alone can only get you so far. You have to turn the talent in place into something elite.

Compare that to a coach like Mike Gundy, who over that same timeframe has landed one top 25 class, has won 75% of his games with six 10 win seasons, and has had an average strength of schedule of 19.25. That means comparable strength of schedule, improved winning percentage, but significantly lesser recruiting results. Gundy and staff are clearly maximizing the potential of the players on the roster, getting the most out of them through development and coaching. Another interesting example is Dan Mullen, whose recruiting classes averaged out to 28th nationally per season with a strength of schedule of 24.75 and a 62% winning percentage. With the exception of maybe Arkansas, Mississippi State had arguably the worst recruiting average in the SEC West, yet managed to be a perennial winning program under Mullen's guidance in spite of it. Again, we're looking at a comparable strength of schedule to Notre Dame, a comparable winning percentage to Brian Kelly, yet a significantly weaker annual recruiting average.

Now, having talked about all of this, I'm obviously making the case for development over recruiting, but what about coaches that we know can do both over a sustained timeframe. I'll start with Clemson's Dabo Swinney. Swinney has won 80% of his games over the last eight seasons against a strength of schedule that averaged 22nd nationally. In doing so, Swinney's recruiting classes have averaged 15.5 nationally. During this period, Clemson has won 6 division titles, 4 conference titles, made three playoff appearances, 2 national title games, and won a national title. While he's recruiting at roughly the same level as Brian Kelly, Swinney has maximized that talent much better than Kelly has done over the same time. Now, having said all of this, I would be remiss if I didn't address the best in the business at winning right now, Nick Saban. Over the same eight year period, Saban's Alabama teams have won an average of 89.2% of the games they played against a strength of schedule that averaged 3rd nationally while recruiting all but one top ranked class nationally. During that period he won 6 division titles, 4 conference titles, participated in every college football playoff, made 5 national title game, and won 4 national titles. If we accept the earlier examples that prove that coaching matters more than recruiting, it becomes abundantly clear that Saban, like Swinney, excels at both.

At least early on, we have clear proof that Tennessee's new head coach and incoming staff can recruit, but it's becoming increasingly likely that these are coaches who can also develop talent as a result of the other coaches they've worked with at various times, coaches like Nick Saban, Jimbo Fisher, Kirby Smart, Gus Malzahn, and Dabo Swinney. It comes down to development of coaches as well as the development of players, and the ability to identify talent, bring it in, and maximize it. Will Tennessee's staff check off all these boxes in the end? Only time will tell, but it's safe to say they've learned their craft from some of the best in the business.

Saturday, January 6, 2018

Way Too Early Depth Chart Projections

So let me start this by saying this is all in good fun. National Signing Day has yet to come, so the roster isn't even close to set in stone yet. It's pure speculation based on how some guys played last season and who fits where from the players currently expected to be Vols by the start of next season. It can change, will change, and likely must change for the Vols to have any chance at success beyond the .500 mark. So take this for what it is; a bit of time killing fun as we wait for the staff to be finalized, the dead period to end, and NSD to come around.


  • Quarterback
    • Jarrett Guarantano - 6-4, 200, RSO
    • Quinten Dormady - 6-4, 222, SR
      • So allow me to offer up my logic on this one here. Guarantano wasn't great last year, but he graded out better than either Dormady or McBride. Of course, Dormady wasn't health and McBride was a true freshman. I don't know that Guarantano will hold onto the job. Dormady had flashes before his shoulder degraded to the point that his play suffered in a major way. What I do know is that if things remain as they were at the end of this past season, Guarantano is likely to be the starter. 
  • Running back
    • Ty Chandler - 5-11, 195, SO
    • Carlin Fils-aime - 5-11, 183, JR
      • This one I feel pretty alright about. With John Kelly off to the draft, Chandler and Fils-aime are the top two returning running backs. They combined for 102 carries for 520 yards and 4 touchdowns along with 12 receptions for 126 yards. That's 5.1 yards per carry and 10.5 yards per reception. Both also were graded well for their play by Pro Football Focus. Of course, Tim Jordan also graded well in his limited carries and at least one definite addition to the backfield is coming in big back Jeremy Banks, but I'm going with the safe bets here rather than the gamble.
  • Wide Receiver 1
    • Marquez Callaway - 6-2, 199, JR
    • Josh Palmer - 6-2, 198, SO
      • Again, playing things safe here. This could change if Jauan Jennings is reinstated or if certain additions are made in recruiting, but right now I'm pretty comfortable with these two. Callaway finished second on the team in receptions and yards, but led by a significant margin in touchdowns. Palmer was #3 among returners in receptions. He was inconsistent at times, but Palmer has shown flashes and should only improve with further coaching.
  • Wide Receiver 2
    • Brandon Johnson - 6-2, 193, JR
    • Princeton Fant - 6-2, 216, RFR
      • I'm all in on Johnson being the top option here. I'm a lot less confident in Fant. Johnson led the team in receptions and receiving yards. He was honestly the most reliable receiver on the season. He was pretty solid as a freshman too. Fant didn't play last season, and at one time it was just understood that he would move to tight end. At this point, I think that's probably less likely with the new staff, and given the returning receivers I think that Fant may have a chance to part of the rotation at receiver. However, the right additions could move him out of the top two at one of the receiver spots.
  • Slot Receiver
    • Jordan Murphy - 5-11, 170, SO
    • Alontae Taylor - 6-0, 184, FR
      • Murphy played more last season than any of the other slot receiver candidates, and he's the only one to register a reception with Josh Smith out of eligibility and Tyler Byrd likely headed to defense. Murphy was highly sought after out of high school, but he and fellow receiver Jacquez Jones were unable to enroll until the second summer session, which set them both back a little. I'm sticking with Murphy's talent to lead the way at this spot. So why not Jones or Latrell Williams as the #2 in the slot? Taylor is just too talented, despite making the move from high school quarterback to wide receiver. If Taylor were starting by the end of the season, I wouldn't be shocked. That said, Callaway, Johnson, and Murphy were also the three top graded returning receivers.
  • Tight End
    • Dominick Wood-Anderson - 6-5, 245, JR
    • Eli Wolf - 6-4, 224, RJR
      • Wood-Anderson is a special talent at tight end. He has drawn comparisons to former Alabama and current Tampa Bay tight end O.J. Howard. For context, Howard was selected in the first round of this past draft. With Ethan Wolf graduated, Wood-Anderson is the best fit to fill in. Eli Wolf finished last season with a solid grade and was second in receptions among tight ends last season behind only his older brother. Wolf could be challenged by LaTrell Bumphus, but Bumphus could also prove to be a candidate for the defensive side of the ball as well. Basically, after Wood-Anderson, things will get a bit jumbled with a number of unproven options who might be able to do the job but maybe not quite the ideal fit for what the new staff is looking for at the position. Moving offensive lineman Nathan Niehaus to tight end is on the table at this point.
  • Left Tackle
    • Trey Smith - 6-6, 320, SO
    • Drew Richmond - 6-5, 309, RJR
      • I've gone back and forth on this, but I've finally just accepted the reality: Drew Richmond was a liability last season and has likely lost the starting left tackle job for good, especially if guys like K'Rojhn Calbert and Chance Hall come back healthy. In fact, if the numbers support it, I think moving Richmond inside to guard might be a good move for him. Right now, I don't know that such a move will be practical. Trey Smith had the highest grade of any Vol offensive lineman despite being a true freshman and the 19th highest in the SEC among all offensive linemen. He was excellent. If the Vols want to improve their offense, they have to plug Smith into the most important spot on the offensive line for good.
  • Left Guard
    • Jerome Carvin - 6-4, 330, FR
    • K'Rojhn Calbert - 6-5, 316, RFR
      • Carvin is just too good at this point to keep off the field. The proven options are few and far between, so gambling on an incredibly talented young play only makes sense. Calbert fits a similar description at this point. He could also be an option at tackle, but for now I'm going to lean on guard for a young and inexperienced offensive lineman.
  • Center
    • Ollie Lane - 6-5, 285, FR
    • Ryan Johnson - 6-6, 300, RSO
      • Ollie Lane is an excellent interior lineman and an early enrollee. Meanwhile, no true centers are on the roster and Johnson struggled at guard and in the little work he got at center as well. This could probably go either way, but I like Lane. He doesn't have many bad habits on film, so there isn't too much to fix with him.
  • Right Guard
    • Riley Locklear - 6-5, 295, SO
    • Devante Brooks - 6-5, 282, RSO
      • Locklear was a true freshman last year, but he played better than your average freshman. In fact, he was the second highest graded player on offense against LSU and highest graded offensive lineman. Basically, he had some freshman moments but also shined at times. He's likely reached the point where he needs to be on the field. Brooks struggled at tackle. Giving him a look at guard is an option unless the Vols can add another body or two at the guard position.
  • Right Tackle
    • Jahmir Johnson - 6-5, 290, JR
    • Chance Hall - 6-4, 315, RJR
      • Johnson was one of the top JUCO offensive tackles in the past cycle, and his length and athleticism are perfect for the right tackle spot. Marcus Tatum struggled last year, along with most of the offensive line, so if he's healthy enough to play, Chance Hall should be in the two deep somewhere. That said, it's hard to envision Hall being his old self right away, so I think Johnson will be the top dog at right tackle.
  • Left End
    • Jonathan Kongbo - 6-6, 264, RSR
    • Greg Emerson - 6-3, 280, FR
      • Kongbo has been working like he wants to move to linebacker in the new defensive scheme, but realistically this big bodied end won't be making that move. Instead, he'll use his size and strength at the end position, sticking at end when the defense shifts into a 4-3 look. Emerson is another player determined to be an end, and with his size and athleticism there's no reason he shouldn't fit well into the scheme. Emerson is probably too natural a fit to keep off the field this coming season. If Kongbo makes the move to linebacker or if Emerson isn't yet 100%, I'd expect Matthew Butler to be in the mix here. He should be part of the rotation regardless.
  • Nose Guard
    • Alexis Johnson - 6-4, 300, RSR
    • Eric Crosby - 6-1, 336, RFR
      • Johnson wasn't nearly as highly graded as McKenzie, who led the Vols defensive linemen in grade, but certainly graded higher than some of the other defensive tackles last season. Eric Crosby should take advantage of the early departure of Kahlil McKenzie in order to serve as the #2 at the nose, unless he really takes the bull by the horns and takes over the starting job.
  • Right End
    • Shy Tuttle - 6-2, 308, SR
    • Kyle Phillips - 6-4, 263, SR
      • I think Phillips is probably too big to make the move to linebacker, and Tuttle is probably a bit too athletic to waste at nose guard. That said, if Phillips were to make the move to linebacker, look for Kivon Bennett or Brant Lawless to make a move here. Quay Picou could also be an option here. Tuttle is on the road to getting healthy. If he does, watch out. He's very, very good and more athletic than you'd expect from a man his size.
  • Jack Linebacker
    • Darrell Taylor - 6-4, 254, RJR
    • Jordan Allen - 6-5, 230, RSO
      • Darrell Taylor was ridiculously athletic from the time he arrived on campus and that hasn't changed as he's added weight. Despite some struggles across the defense, Taylor still had a strong sophomore campaign with 27 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 2 passes defended, 2 forced fumbles, a fumble recovery, and 5 quarterback hurries. He can still move like a linebacker and should fit in perfectly as the Jack, a hybrid LB/DE. Jordan Allen was a high school wide receiver and defensive back, so that's just a little sample of how athletic he is. He's an ideal fit for this position in the new defense.
  • Weakside Linebacker
    • Darrin Kirkland Jr. - 6-1, 238, RJR
    • JJ Peterson - 6-2, 210, FR
      • Kirkland has had some health issues, but not enough to lead you to believe he's anything but one of the best linebackers on the roster when he's healthy. He's got the size and speed to make plays at any time, and now that he has a chance to move to the weakside spot, he won't have to spend all his time thinking and can just play fast and hard. Peterson is an amazing athlete, and although he may not have the ideal size yet he's too good to keep off the field.
  • Middle Linebacker
    • Daniel Bituli - 6-3, 235, JR
    • Will Ignont - 6-1, 228, SO
      • Bituli had a breakout season last year. He established himself as the middle linebacker, and I expect him to retain that role going forward. He looks the part of an Alabama linebacker, and he should be quick to adapt to the new scheme. Ignont had a surprisingly good season by grade despite limited playing time. He too should benefit from the new defense and improved coaching. 
  • Strongside Linebacker
    • Quarte' Sapp - 6-2, 222, RJR
    • Austin Smith - 6-3, 236, RJR
      • Plugging Sapp in here is predicated on him adding weight, which is something that I think he can and will do. Put 8-10 pounds on Sapp and he should be a perfect fit for the strongside spot. Austin Smith has still been fighting to stay healthy, but when he's been healthy he's impressed. These two players have both shown promise, although Sapp has had more opportunities to show off his talents. 
  • Cornerback 1
    • Tyler Byrd - 6-0, 195, JR
    • Marquill Osborne - 5-11, 188, JR
      • Byrd was one of the most highly regarded corners in his class, so of course he's spent the last two seasons on offense. Logic, right? Osborne hasn't been great yet, but he's been serviceable for the most part. At this point, it's hard to believe that the staff won't add corners to the class, and if they do I have every reason to believe Osborne will be one of the odd men out or shift inside to nickel.
  • Cornerback 2
    • Cheyenne Labruzza - 6-0, 188, SO
    • Baylen Buchanan - 5-11, 185, JR
      • Labruzza didn't play most of last season, but in camp he showed flashes. So much so that the previous staff decided to try him at safety even though he'd been showing flashes at corner because, well, logic again. Labruzza is another defensive back with the kind of size that the new staff covets. Buchanan again has been serviceable and might be best suited at nickel at this point, but until the numbers improve at corner this is how he'll have to fit in.
  • Nickelback/Star
    • Shawn Shamburger - 6-0, 191, SO
    • Micah Abernathy - 6-0, 203, SR
      • Shamburger was an excellent player in the secondary for a freshman. He was far from perfect, but given that he was pressed into action by injuries, he gave you about all you could have asked for. In fact, Shamburger, a big, physical corner, might be one guy I think holds this job regardless of recruiting. He's a corner with safety size and the aggression to make plays in the backfield. In other words, he makes perfect sense at the nickel spot. Abernathy struggled at safety last year. Mind you, he had to play a lot of downs, but I think a change of pace back to the nickel/star role is probably going to serve him well. He's not a free safety, and Warrior will be entrenched at strong safety. This is likely his best fit next season.
  • Strong Safety
    • Nigel Warrior - 6-0, 194, JR
    • Maleik Gray - 6-2, 191, RFR
      • Warrior had a breakout season last year, and he is the closest thing to Minkah Fitzpatrick on the roster right now. That's how he'll be used by the new staff. As an in-the-box safety, Warrior has the speed and aggression to get the job done while also handling business in coverage as necessary. Gray, a high school linebacker, should adjust well to the new scheme as his duties will be more similar to those of an outside linebacker than they were in the prior defensive scheme.
  • Free Safety
    • Todd Kelly Jr. - 5-11, 200, RSR
    • Theo Jackson - 6-1, 178, SO
      • Kelly is back and it's a no brainer to say he'll be motivated. An injury derailed last season for him, and he's out to prove he's an NFL talent. His speed has been a question at times, but his instincts as a free safety have served him well to the tune of 14 passes defended and 8 interceptions despite really only having one full season as a starter. This is the right fit for him this upcoming season. Jackson is very much like junior draft entrant Rashaan Gaulden in that he plays bigger than his size, is a hard hitter, and is better in coverage than you'd expect. He should do a fair bit of growing with the new strength and conditioning coach and while working with the new safety coach.
  • Placekicker
    • Brent Cimaglia - 6-1, 193, SO
    • Laszlo Toser - 5-8, 181, RJR
      • Cimaglia is the kicker. He was part of the equation with placekicking last season. He has a big leg and hit on a long of 51 yards last season. He'll improve on his accuracy and provide a reliable option in the kicking game. Toser was a good high school kicker and seems to be the most likely backup at this point.
  • Punter
    • Paxton Brooks - 6-5, 170, FR
    • Grayson Pontius - 6-2, 205, RJR
      • Brooks is one of the top punters in this cycle, and he has a big leg and can get solid hangtime. He should get a jump on replacing Trevor Daniel as an early enrollee. Pontius has had a long and winding journey to Tennessee that included two stops at East Mississippi CC and a year at Marshall. He was a kicker primarily until last season, when he finally focused on punting. He averaged 40 yards per punt last year, which is solid, but compared to Brooks, who averaged 42.4 yards per punt and showcased his leg in the Under Armour All-American game with a 40.2 yard average and a long of 52 with one pinned inside the 20.
  • Long Snapper
    • Riley Lovingood - 6-0, 210, RJR
    • Elijah Medford - 5-9, 204, RSR
      • Lovingood and Medford have split the snapping duties for the last couple seasons, with Medford serving as the short snapper on field goals and PATs and Lovingood the long snapper on punts. That is likely to continue this season. Both are excellent in their respective roles.
  • Holder
    • Parker Henry - 6-1, 187, RSR
      • If Henry goes down, your guess is as good as mine who replaces him. He's handled the duties for the past two seasons, and I don't know that there's a clear #2 in the role.
As I said before, this is all subject to change. It's just a bit of fun to bridge the gap until the dead period ends and recruiting picks back up. Once we get past NSD, I'll likely do this again right before spring practice. In the meantime, enjoy this and feel free to debate. GBO!

Tuesday, January 2, 2018

Potential Answers for the Recruiting Handwringers

The early excitement of the early signing period successes faded quickly, and the hemming and hawing over how the class would wrap up and how needs would be addressed were renewed. However, despite the dead period the staff never has let up in recruiting, maintaining new offers to go with increased electronic and written communications within the rules. With 8-11 potential spots remaining, let's go into who has signed, who has committed to us, and who is being targeted to round out the class.


  • Quarterback 
    • Signee JT Shrout, 6-3, 190, 3-star
      • Shrout will wrap up the class at the quarterback position, joined presumably by preferred walk-on Bart Harris of Missouri, who checks in at 6-4, 210.
  • Running Back
    • Signee Jeremy Banks, 6-2, 215, 4-star
    • Commit Anthony Grant, 5-11, 200, 3-star
    • Targets C'Bo Flemister 6-0, 192, 3-star
      • Banks is locked in, but as for who will be the second back in the class things are a bit more uncertain. Keeping Grant in the fold appears to be one of the top priorities of the new staff, and they certainly made their play during his official visit the weekend of the 19th. Virginia Tech is definitely still a player for Grant, and Florida State is making a push for him. Jashaun Corbin was once committed to the Vols and intends to take another look their way after the coaching changes around the country. He's a very productive all-purpose back and landing him would add a lot of versatility to the backfield.  Flemister is being pursued as an athlete with the potential to play running back or corner in Knoxville. He visited on the 12th and seemed to indicate that he was leaning toward the Vols, but a new offer from Notre Dame has clouded the issue some. He will decide close to National Signing Day between Georgia Tech, Tennessee, and Notre Dame.
  • Wide Receiver 
    • Signee Alontae Taylor, 6-0, 184, 4-star
    • Commit Jordan Young, 6-2, 185, 4-star
    • Targets Jacob Copeland (6-0, 192, 4-star), Geordon Porter (6-2, 180, 3-star), Cedric Tillman (6-3, 205, 3-star)
      • Alontae Taylor had an interesting recruitment, but in the end his second commitment to the Vols led to him signing. Jordan Young had an interesting recruitment in his own right, being unranked and unnoticed at the point at which Tennessee offered him. He visited, was offered, and jumped on board. He was then quickly ranked and 247Sports put him in their Top247 at #190 in the country after he had a huge senior season with 66 receptions for 1,562 yards and 17 touchdowns. After a visit to FSU, Young is looking a bit less likely to stick, but everyone will have to wait until signing day to know for sure. Taylor has been working to lure Copeland among others to Knoxville, but it looks like Copeland is pretty open at the moment. He has been to Knoxville, but at present doesn't have any known plans to make his way back before NSD. Florida is considered the leader for Copeland at this point. Geordon Porter was one of the new offers that they put out there, and after his visit on the 12th he named Tennessee as his leader. Things have since gotten a bit quieter in his recruitment as far as Tennessee is concerned. His most recent visit was to UCLA, and he plans to visit Texas A&M before deciding around NSD. Tillman, the son of a former NFL receiver with the Broncos and Jaguars, received a late offer as things with Young began to look shakier. The Vols shot to the top of his list. It's possible he could wait to decide after NSD.
  • Tight End 
    • Signees Dominick Wood-Anderson (6-5, 245, 4-star) and Jacob Warren (6-6, 211, 3-star)
    • Target Glenn Beal, 6-5, 265, 3-star
      • I was previously under the impression that we would wrap things up at two additions, but the door seems to be open to adding Beal, a larger, more college ready tight end than Warren following the graduation of primary tight ends Ethan Wolf and Jakob Warren. Dominick Wood-Anderson is very much a college ready tight end, even at the SEC level. Beal could also potentially play defensive end, and the option of moving current tight end Latrell Bumphus to defense may be on the table as well. Beal is currently believed to be leaning toward Texas A&M, but the in-demand tight end is checking out Alabama and Florida before deciding.
  • Offensive Line 
    • Signees Jerome Carvin (6-4, 330, 4-star), Jahmir Johnson (6-5, 290, 4-star), Tanner Antonutti (6-5, 260, 3-star), Ollie Lane (6-5, 285, 3-star)
      • Their four surefire additions are all quality additions to the roster, but the depth is on the thinner side. No additions appear likely at this time.
  • Defensive Line 
    • Signees Greg Emerson (6-3, 280, 4-star), Brant Lawless (6-3, 285, 4-star), Kingston Harris (6-4, 272, 3-star)
    • Commit D'Andre Litaker, 6-2, 302, 4-star
    • Targets Nesta Silvera (6-2, 308, 4-star), Emmit Gooden (6-4, 295, 4-star), Jermayne Lole (6-3, 270, 3-star), John Mincey (6-4, 255, 3-star), Otito Ogbonnia (6-4, 290, 3-star), Kurott Garland (6-3, 250, unranked)
      • Litaker seems increasingly unlikely to be a member of the program, barring a shift in momentum in the coming weeks. His ongoing knee injuries have complicated his position with the new staff. The staff is looking to add more bodies to the roster as they proceed to shift from a 4-3 base to a 3-4 base, although the nickel and dime packages will still likely be run from a four man front. Miami commit Nesta Silvera somewhat came out of nowhere to visit the Vols. He never commented on the visit and he seems unlikely to be a Vol. Gooden was a former Vol commit out of high school before grades led him to the JUCO ranks. Now he's back on the market and the Vols are currently feeling pretty good about their chances with him as long as the grades are good to go. Jermayne Lole was all set to commit on NSD until a late offer from the Vols muddied the waters. Now he may wait until after signing day in order to make a visit to Knoxville if the Vols still have room to fit him in the class. Arkansas decommitment Mincey made a visit and the Vols left quite the impression. Things currently appear close between South Carolina and Tennessee to land his signature. Ogbonnia made the trip to Knoxville and seems very interested in the Vols. How high he is on the Vols board is tougher to gauge. Kurott Garland was another late addition to the visitor list. Like Young, he's gone unranked. Like Young, his numbers and size would seem to suggest that he should be a much more noteworthy name in this recruiting cycle. I'm listing him as a defensive lineman right now mainly because I'm not sure how exactly the staff is viewing him. I wouldn't be surprised if Tennessee added two more defensive linemen to the class.
  • Linebacker 
    • Signee Jordan Allen, 6-5, 230, 4-star
    • Commit JJ Peterson, 6-3, 231, 4-star
    • Targets Quay Walker, 6-4, 236, 5-star
      • It's hard to say right now how many linebackers they may take at this point, but two seems to be the minimum target number. Peterson has committed to the Vols and will make his first trip to campus the weekend of the 12th. Walker, originally scheduled to visit the Vols the final weekend before NSD, has moved his visit up and will now visit the weekend of the 12th. While programs like Auburn, Georgia, and Florida feel good about where they are with him, his move with his OV may be a good sign for the Vols. Tennessee continues to feel good about where they stand with the big time linebacker, but it's worth noting that Georgia is also optimistic.
  • Defensive Back 
    • Commit Brandon Davis, 5-11, 160, 3-star
    • Targets Tyson Campbell (6-3, 180, 5-star), Olaijah Griffin (6-0, 170, 5-star), Isaac Taylor-Stuart (6-2, 187, 5-star), Taiyon Palmer (6-0, 178, 4-star), Trevon Flowers (6-1, 185, 3-star), Dyllan Lester (6-0, 190, 3-star)
      • Tennessee lost all their secondary commitments along the way through the coaching change, either due to the recruits choosing to look around or having the choice made for them by the new staff, with four former commits having signed elsewhere, but don't think the Vols are in trouble here. Campbell was in no way, shape or form interested in the Vols prior to the new staff being in place. He doesn't seem likely to be a Vol, but he also hasn't done a lot of talking since his visit. Taylor-Stuart really sounded impressed by his visit, and the Vols are likely competing with USC for his signature. There is cautious optimism here. Olaijah Griffin has visited already and since decommitted from UCLA. Currently it looks like the Vols have lost ground here and Alabama and USC look like his two most likely destinations. Taiyon Palmer is a recently offered player with a lot of offers, including schools like Clemson, Arkansas, Notre Dame, and Virginia Tech among others. He's made it on campus and seems genuinely interested, but most think NC State is the team to beat. Trevon Flowers was having some trouble getting onto campus, but all signs now are it is a Clemson and Tennessee race for his services, with many believing the Vols have the edge. Dyllan Lester, a teammate of 5-star corners Tyson Campbell and Patrick Surtain Jr., was a late offer by the Vols. The UCF commit is probably a backup plan, but it's clear that there is talent there to go with his size and he was mostly overshadowed by his taller and more heralded teammates. Brandon Davis is a teammate of tight end target Glenn Beal who got a late offer from Tennessee and quickly changed his plans to visit. The staff has compared him to former LSU and current Arizona Cardinal defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, aka the Honey Badger. Following his visit, he expressed that the Vols were his leader.
  • Specialists
    • Signee Paxton Brooks, 6-5, 170, 3-star
      • Brooks seems likely to be the only specialist the Vols will sign this cycle, but they are set to add East Mississippi Community College punter Grayson Pontius, teammate of potential receiver target Mike Williams. 
  • Athlete
    • Targets Tre'Shaun Harrison, 6-2, 190, 4-star
      • Harrison visited and left feeling good about the Vols, but it still seems pretty likely that he'll end up deciding between Oregon and Florida State. Never say never, but the previous Oregon commit seems likely to choose between the school he committed to and the coach he did. 
So, all things being equal, I think the Vols will certainly add players tomorrow, and there is a possibility of two of those additions being 5-star recruits. The Vols could close strong, but nothing is set in stone yet as it's likely some kids will still change their minds as the next few hours progress. Keep an eye on Twitter and the recruiting sites, and I'll be updating who has signed as the day goes on.

Saturday, December 23, 2017

Tennessee's Early Signees

Quarterback JT Shrout - Shrout is an intriguing addition. He's the sort of player who checks all the boxes as far as his technique, size, footwork, etc., but his stats don't fill fans with confidence. Shrout only started a single season in high school as a senior, but he did get some work as a backup during his sophomore and junior seasons. For his career, he's accounted for 3,304 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions with 311 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns. At 6-3, 190, Shrout isn't a burner on the run but he can be reasonably effective in creating enough with his legs to take what the defense is giving him. He has pro-level mechanics and an arm that can launch a deep pass. Shrout's high school offensive line wasn't anything particularly great, and he was often left to do work on the move. His receivers also weren't anything special, so he would have to force things at times. Given how many good throws I saw from him with defenders right in his face, it is a bit more difficult to blame him for the fact that he had a low completion percentage and high interception rate. On paper, he's raw. On film and in person, he looks like a future professional quarterback. Given good protection and decent receivers, he could be a quarterback who puts up big numbers.

Running back Jeremy Banks - Talk about a guy who exploded as a senior! Banks had a good but unspectacular junior season. Certainly nothing that would make him an elite recruit. 140 carries, 815 yards, and 16 touchdowns. Good numbers, but really the kind of numbers that make you think SEC talent. Then he had that elite senior campaign. 198 carries, 1,941 yards, and 32 touchdowns. Only 58 more carries, but more than double the yards, nearly 10 yards per carry, and twice the touchdowns. For anyone wondering why he saw the huge jump in his numbers, he split carries with Lincoln University of Missouri freshman running back Harold Lacy, who led LU in touchdowns and was second in rushing yards last season. This past season, Banks ran the show, with the next closest running back in carries having 80 for 707 yards and six touchdowns. At 6-2, 215, Banks is a load with constantly churning legs and better than expected speed. His forty times have been all over the place as far as listings go, but when it comes to playing speed I'd guess he's probably somewhere in the 4.55 range. His poor running at The Opening Regional in New Orleans doesn't line up at all with the speed he shows on film. He's a willing and brutal blocker with the power to rip through arm tackles and the athleticism to leap over guys trying to tackle him low. He fits the new model of running back that Jeremy Pruitt wants to work into the mix with the smaller, faster running backs already on the roster.

Wide receiver Alontae Taylor (EE) - Taylor is the most intriguing name among the early signees. He is an insanely productive athlete who looks to play wide receiver for the Vols. He sincerely did a bit of everything for Coffee County, passing for 1,746 yards, running for 6,000 yards, catching for 479 yards, returning kickoffs to the tune of 172 yards (on just six returns), and tossing in some solid defensive play for good measure. He tossed 10 touchdowns as a passer, and had 75 as a runner, receiver, and returner. He genuinely does it all, and he is somewhat reminiscent of Randall Cobb. He's a true offensive weapon that gives the coaches flexibility to run trick plays. He's not the biggest player. He's not the fastest. He's not the strongest. He's just a playmaker, no matter what position he's playing. At 6-0, 184, he's going to be a good sized receiver, whether he's out wide or in the slot. He's still raw as a receiver, but he's going to be virtually impossible to keep off the field next season. He's just too productive.

Tight end Jacob Warren (EE) - Right now, Warren looks more like a wide receiver than a tight end, but at 6-6, 211 he has room to grow and then some. He has the willingness to work as a blocker and really doesn't have the speed for wideout, but he can easily grow to 240-250 pounds. Over the last two seasons, he had 68 receptions for 1,138 yards and 17 touchdowns. Warren averaged 16.5 yards per reception, so as tight ends go he's definitely a big play threat. He has had a career long reception for 75 yards coming this season. Although he will probably need time to build up his body in order to play tight end, if he can add good weight in a hurry, he could find a way to be a weapon, either at tight end or as a large possession receiver.

Tight end Dominick Wood-Anderson (EE) - This 6-5, 245 pound former high school quarterback joins Tennessee ranked as the #1 tight end coming from the JUCO ranks. He wasn't wildly productive from a pure numbers standpoint, but he was second on Arizona Western in receptions last season and third in yards and touchdowns for a team that didn't pass nearly as much as they ran the ball. He's a dynamic receiver when given the chance to be and a willing and capable blocker. In two seasons, Wood-Anderson had 43 receptions for 476 yards and four touchdowns while helping to pave the way for a strong rushing attack. Alabama's coaches had drawn the comparison to OJ Howard with Wood-Anderson. Vol fans can only hope he can be that productive for the next two seasons.

Offensive lineman Tanner Antonutti - Once a tight end, Antonutti began to make the transition to offensive tackle last season, and at 6-5, 275 pounds he's on his way to growing into the role. He allowed fewer than 5 sacks through his ten games as a senior, so it's clear his athleticism is translating to his new role. It's not hard to find a highlight of him clearing a running lane and moving the defender, and he's not yet at ideal size for the role. He's been working to add good weight, and if he can arrive on campus close around 285, he should at worst be able to help offer some depth on the offensive line.

Offensive lineman Jerome Carvin (EE) - 6-4, 330 pounds of road grading offensive guard/right tackle is everything you want from a big bodied blocker. Carvin thrives on doing his job, but he truly thrives on putting the defender on his backside. He's a strong, brutal blocker who always makes a point of finishing the block and keeping his defender out of the play. He may not have enough length to play left tackle, and his future is likely at guard. That said, he could play right tackle if needed. He is somewhat similar to Kyler Kerbyson as far as his versatility is concerned in that he can help out at a few positions as needed. Carvin has a real chance to help this team out right away, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if he happened to be starting at guard when the season begins.

Offensive lineman Ollie Lane (EE) - Lane is a strong interior lineman with decent leverage and a good finish on his blocks. He moves well for his size (6-5, 285) and has the potential to play guard or center. As an early enrollee, he'll be able to get a jump on strength and conditioning as well as transitioning to center if that is ultimately the plan for him. Lane is a guy who could prove to be a steal, in the same way that Brett Kendrick was for the Vols. Don't be surprised if Lane outplays his ranking.

Defensive lineman Greg Emerson (EE) - Emerson is currently the highest ranked defensive signee for the Vols, and highest ranked signee overall. That despite having to sit out his senior season following an injury at The Opening. Emerson is a big, athletic end at 6-3, 280 and is more than capable of fitting in as a 3-4 end and even a 4-3 end when the front shifts. He is big, but having run a 4.84 forty at The Opening before getting hurt he's plenty quick enough to contribute as an end in either scheme. In fact, it's faster than Derek Barnett's forty at the NFL Combine. Emerson might be the signee who committed to Butch Jones who could benefit most from the coaching change because he's completely suited for the new scheme.

Defensive lineman Kingston Harris (EE) -  Harris was one of the first players with no relationship with Tennessee's previous staff to jump on board with Pruitt and company. Harris was a productive player for IMG Academy, which is almost like snagging a guy out of the JUCO ranks. That's how IMG runs their show. They're being prepped for the college game. Harris is a big guy at 6-4, 272 and he's probably not going to wow anybody in a Combine setting, but he gives 100% every play. On a defensive line with three 5-star recruits lining up around him, Harris still did more than his fair share of work in two years with the program with 40 tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks. As a freshman and sophomore at Orlando Christian Prep, he put up 93 tackles, 6.0 tackles for loss, and 5.5 sacks. Harris is probably best suited to play end right now, but as an early enrollee the staff may be able to work on trying to reshape his body to be able to play inside at nose, where his lack of elite athleticism will be less of an issue as a run stuffer. Regardless, as with many early enrollees, he could be a candidate to contribute early.

Defensive lineman Brant Lawless - To say that Brant Lawless was a productive high school defensive lineman is something of an understatement. 159 tackles, 48.5 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks, and 5 fumble recoveries in four seasons. To give some perspective, if rounded out, that's 40 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks per season. Those are numbers that put guys in the NFL. It's hard to say for certain how Lawless might fit in the new defense long-term, but at least next season he's likely to get his start at end at 6-3, 285. Lawless shows the ability to be very disruptive, and that may allow him to stick at end long-term while shifting inside in a 4-3 look. Lawless is someone I'd be willing to say will continue to be a productive defender in his college career.

Linebacker/defensive end Jordan Allen (EE) - How quickly can a player morph into another position? Consider this: as a high school senior, Allen was a wide receiver and defensive back while participating in basketball and track and field as well. Now he heads to Tennessee ranked as the #2 weakside defensive end in the JUCO ranks at 6-5, 230. He started off redshirting at UC Davis before transferring to City College of San Francisco. Last season he had 27 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, and 2 pass break ups in nine games played. His athleticism has translated well to his new role, and he looks poised to spend the next three years making plays from the edge as a 3-4 linebacker and 4-3 end.

Punter Paxton Brooks (EE) - A big leg, good hangtime, and the ability to flip the field as well as pin the opponent deep in their own territory. It's become the expectation of Tennessee punters over the past several years, and Brooks seems to check all the boxes of recent excellent punters in Knoxville. Brooks averaged 41.8 yards per punt as a junior and 42.4 yards per punt as a senior despite being a lanky punter at 6-5, 170. Now he's set to enter a collegiate strength and conditioning program that will help him build on his leg strength while receiving coaching to improve his technique overall. Brooks arrives on campus at a time when the Vols are looking to replace their excellent punter Trevor Daniel, who finishes his time at Tennessee with a career 45.9 yard per punt average and 82 punts downed inside the 20 and 76 punts of 50+ yards. Brooks looks to be the next great punter for the Vols, who put their last three punters into the NFL.