Monday, February 12, 2018

Will Tennessee Have the Personnel to Install the 3-4 in Year One?

In general, the earlier a new staff can install a new style of defense, the better. There's obviously a lot of value in being able to recruit to the new scheme, but unless you're winning early on before making that transition you can wind up with the sort of situation that former Tennessee head coach Derek Dooley did in 2012 when the move from the 4-3 to the 3-4 failed and cost him his job. For that reason among others, I fully anticipate Tennessee installing the 3-4 base defense right away. Still, with only seven early enrollees including just two confirmed on the defensive side, it's worth wondering whether or not they'll have the bodies to begin that transition this spring. I think they will, but I want to explain why I think they can make that transition and how I envision players fitting in going forward.

On the defensive line, the early entry to the NFL Draft by Kahlil McKenzie was a bit problematic for the nose guard position. McKenzie was the Vols' best run defender on the line last year and appeared to be the most capable tackle of smoothly making that transition. Well, at least among those who played last year. Even so, the personnel in place is where the most likely options at nose guard will come from. Alexis Johnson is the first name you'll want to get to know better. He was the second highest graded defensive tackle by Pro Football Focus last season for the Vols, and that was as the backup to McKenzie. At 6-4, 300 pounds, he has the mass to hold up against double teams. The fifth year senior is already fairly well developed physically, but he should benefit from another season in the weight room. It's also worth keeping an eye on redshirt freshman Eric Crosby. Crosby was redshirted last year in order to trim weight and improve his conditioning, but the big bodied lineman certainly looks the part at 6-1, 336. If his conditioning is where it needs to be, he could be a disruptive nose using the athleticism that allowed him to play running back in high school. Shy Tuttle is also a possibility at the nose if he doesn't land at end instead. Given the fact that nose guards frequently need to take on double teams and Tuttle has had some issues with the health of his legs, it may be better to put him at the 5-technique end spot where he's less likely to have to take on multiple blockers. Either way, that's at least two legitimate options for nose guard, and maybe three, but in this class there is at least one strong candidate for the job in JUCO transfer Emmit Gooden, a 6-4, 305 pound beast who has taken a long and winding road to Knoxville.

As for the defensive end spots, the two aren't exactly created equal even though they have similar responsibilities in the 3-4 look. In general, one is meant to serve as a bigger traditional end and the other is an athletic 4-3 defensive tackle type who would typically play the 3-technique role. For the more traditional end role, there are several candidates, but perhaps none that seem as natural of fits as Jonathan Kongbo and Kyle Phillips. Both had solid if not unspectacular seasons last year, combining for 64 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, and 4.5 sacks. Matthew Butler could be another interesting option in that role as he straddles the line between tackle and end. Deandre Johnson could stick at end as well after a serious weight gain last year as a freshman, but he could also shed some weight and move to linebacker. True freshman early enrollee Greg Emerson is a big bodied defensive end who may have had the athleticism to remain at end even in the 4-3. Emerson, at 6-3, 280, could be a candidate at the other end spot. In addition to these two and Emerson, I would also take a good look at incoming freshman Brant Lawless, a highly productive high school defensive tackle who put on display the ability to be a disruptive force. As a 5-technique end, he could excel.  At this point, I'd say these are the primary candidates to play end opposite the Jack linebacker, a hybrid linebacker/defensive end. Long-term, signees John Mincey and Kurott Garland seem likely to grow into this role as well, although Garland could potentially end up at linebacker depending on how he develops.

At the end/tackle spot, a bigger defensive lineman who can slide inside to a 3-technique role when the front shifts, Kivon Bennett and Quay Picou are two who immediately come to mind. Both are smaller, compact, and quick defensive tackles who haven't played much due to their size limitations in the 4-3, but in the 3-4 both could make noise early and often. Emerson could also be a candidate here as Pruitt has suggested that he's been doing a fair bit of growing. Although forced to delay his enrollment until summer, Kingston Harris is another player who could get a look at end, although long-term he seems likely to grow into the nose guard role. Shy Tuttle, if he doesn't end up at nose guard, seems perfect for this role and if he isn't at nose should be considered a favorite to win this job as this spot shifts inside to 3-technique defensive tackle in four man fronts.

The Jack is a hybrid linebacker/defensive end, and Tennessee has quite a few potential candidates for this pass rushing specialist. As far as bodies already in place on the roster, Darrell Taylor is a solid candidate. One of the leaner ends on the team last season, Taylor has the body type and speed to get the job done in this position. He was timed at around 4.6 coming out of high school, where he played wide receiver in addition to defensive end. Another couple options in place on the roster are Ja'Quain Blakely and Austin Smith, both of whom have bounced around between end and linebacker. Both players were in similar 3-4 schemes in high school and should transition naturally. Ryan Thaxton, an undersized end brought in last cycle, might be a tougher one to figure out how he fits. There are questions regarding whether or not he has the athleticism to transition to linebacker, but he certainly doesn't have the size for end now. How he fits in the future will heavily depend on how he develops this off-season. Newcomer Jordan Allen could potentially play the Jack or the strongside position on the other side. Incredibly athletic, he's on the raw side but his potential is sky high.

At the inside linebacker spots, they tend to be somewhat interchangeable, but there do appear to be a couple clear front runners for the jobs in Darrin Kirkland Jr. and Daniel Bituli. Bituli's emergence at middle linebacker last season may give him the potential to win the same job this season over Kirkland, who would then likely slide over to weakside linebacker, where his speed could be an asset when the defense shifts to a four man front. Other options are Will Ignont, who played little last year but showed some promise, and Quart'e Sapp, the heir apparent at weakside linebacker. Another potential factor for these jobs is JJ Peterson, one of the big National Signing Day additions. He played outside linebacker in high school, but at 6-2, 231 he could potentially play at any spot with the possible exception of Jack. All that said, strongside linebacker is probably where I would look for JJ to make an impact.

Speaking of strongside linebacker, this is probably also going to represent Austin Smith's best potential landing spot. That could make this summer fun if it does become a Smith-Peterson competition for the job. Realistically, I couldn't make a clear pick for the winner but injury issues have plagued Smith so that may ultimately be the deciding factor. Dillon Bates seems like a solid strongside candidate as well as the redshirt senior looks to salvage his last season on the Hill. Injuries, size concerns, and inconsistency have plagued the talented linebacker after a promising start to his freshman season. As previously stated, Allen could get a look here if he's not one of the top two at Jack.

I think I'll approach the corners as one group. On signing day, Pruitt essentially indicated that he didn't think things at corner were as grim as fans thought, and he might not be entirely wrong assuming some of what's anticipated comes to pass. Cheyenne Labruzza and Shawn Shamburger certainly look the part of the bigger corners that Pruitt and staff covets with both standing 6-0 and around 190 or so. Baylen Buchanan and Marquill Osborne aren't too far off around 5-11 and 185-190. That's the positive spin. The flip-side to that though is the combined career 54 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, and a pass defended. So proven production has been lacking. Terrell Bailey is likely to be in the same range as Buchanan and Osborne by the time fall camp arrives and the redshirt freshman could work to find a role in the secondary. That's the grim news. Here are the potential upsides. Tyler Byrd to the defensive side of the ball seems increasingly likely. At 6-0, 195, he fully looks the part of the corners in this defense, and considering he was the #10 corner in the class of 2016 it's time to move him to defense. The offensive experiment made some sense at the time, but coming off a season in which Byrd caught 3 passes for 27 yards and had 2 carries for 19 yards, the experiment is over. The three defensive backs added on national signing day (two will be blueshirts) are all intriguing possibilities. Although on the skinny side at 5-11, 160, Brandon Davis was very productive in high school with 86 tackles, 37 passes defended, and 13 interceptions in three years. If he can somehow add enough weight, he might just be part of the secondary solution, but realistically one would think he might redshirt. Then there's a couple of raw additions in Trevon Flowers and Joseph Norwood, both of which stand around 6-1 and possessing excellent athleticism. Flowers has only played one season of high school football but showed good instincts and has the weight to play early at 185. Norwood missed his junior season but emerged late on a few teams' radars after a strong senior campaign. Although 170, he plays bigger than that and at either corner or maybe Star (up next), he could be at least part of the rotation.

Onward to the Star, a hybrid nickel/safety role that tends to operate like a third safety on the field. At least early on, I like either Todd Kelly Jr. or Micah Abernathy here, with the other likely fitting in at one of the safety spots. I lean Abernathy here because I think he fits better as a bigger safety close to the line of scrimmage, while the ball-hawking Kelly might be best served offering support on the back-end of the defense. As previously mentioned, Norwood could be an option here as the hard hitting defensive back seems made for a role like this.

At the safety spots, Nigel Warrior is a no-brainer at one spot. He is a true rising star and one of the best safeties in the SEC and likely the country. He will only get better under the new staff. If he's healthy, Kelly seems like the best option for the other safety spot, but certainly not the only option. Maleik Gray and Theo Jackson are both players on the rise and have the ideal height for the new defense. As both continues to develop physically and receive the coaching they deserve, they could become huge additions to the rotation at safety or Star. Norwood likely doesn't have the size for safety at this point, but Flowers could be a candidate here if he doesn't find a home as a corner first.

The conclusion on this end is that the pieces are at least present, but a lot will hinge on coaching and development as to how well this transition can be executed. Talent was never lacking under Jones, but chaos with the strength and conditioning program as well as a lack of player development from a technique perspective has stunted this group. It's clear that this isn't an issue that can be fixed in a single off-season, but that doesn't mean that the defense can't be better than last year and at least middle of the road in the SEC, which should be considered progress after teams failed to ever even bother trying to pass as the run defense was so bad that they might as well have never taken the field. They don't need to join Alabama or Georgia as the top of the conference in season one. They just need to take real and meaningful steps forward to improve, and this staff appears up to the task and looks to have the pieces in place to work with.

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