Tennessee has been mired in frustration in most sports for years now. Whether it has been the decade of football frustration, the illness and loss of Pat Summitt, Bruce Pearl and Donnie Tyndall's NCAA misadventures, or the steep decline of Tennessee baseball, really only softball has remained as an annual beacon of hope. Tennessee fans across all sports have steadily begged for improvement, and with each new hire their hope has been renewed, yet their faith has seldom been rewarded. This is about men's basketball, however, and it's worth talking about life during and after Pearl leading up to the impending season.
Bruce Pearl took over a Vols program with low expectations and turned them into a perennial tournament team, starting with his first season in Knoxville. He finished his time in Knoxville with a 145-61 overall record, 65-31 in conference play, and made the tournament in each of his six seasons in Knoxville. Barring his final, tumultuous season at Tennessee, he won 21 or more games every season. He also took the team to two Sweet Sixteen exits and an Elite Eight departure.
After his termination at Tennessee, the Vols were taken over by Cuonzo Martin, who had just finished a rebuilding project at Missouri State. He took over a newly depleted Tennessee team that had lost their top three contributors and seven of the top ten players from the year before and helped the team to finish second in the SEC, although they just missed out on the tournament after failing to win an SEC tournament game. The next season the team started slow and finished fast, sitting on the bubble heading into the SEC tourney. A second round loss left them as one of the first four out. Then 2014 happened. A team with high expectations got off to a poor start, and at the point at which they were sitting at 16-11, enraged fans began a petition to see Martin terminated. The team rallied to a 5-1 finish and were one of the first four round participants. In the end, the team barely fell in the Sweet Sixteen to Michigan. While the motives can be questioned, Martin resigned following the season's conclusion and took the head coaching job at Cal.
Donnie Tyndall would be the next head coach. He took over a team with only one returning contributor. Roughly one-third of the roster were new players he brought on board. He led the team to a 16-16 record and then he was terminated due to allegations and evidence stemming from his prior stop at Southern Miss. Back to the drawing board yet again for Tennessee basketball.
Luck struck finally for the Vols as Texas terminated their long-time coach Rick Barnes. The Vols swooped in and snatched up the highly successful coach. At this point, the Vols were in full rebuilding mode after three coaches in as many years, and they finished with a 15-19 record. Last year, they finished 16-16 despite some significant personnel issues in the post and at point guard.
Now it's time to find out what the 2017-18 team will be able to do. The Vols return six of their top ten scorers from last season and seven players who averaged double digit minutes per game a year ago. Also back are four of the top five rebounders from last season and their top two players in assists. Jalen Johnson is coming off a redshirt season and represents a long guard capable of making plays from the wing. Forward John Fulkerson is on the mend following a serious injury to his right arm last season, leading him to a redshirt after averaging 4.3 points and 4.2 rebounds through the first 11 games.
Rick Barnes and staff got to work on the recruiting trail and made major strides in helping this year's team in terms of scoring and play in the paint. Redshirt senior graduate transfer James Daniel III was the NCAA scoring leader two years ago, averaging 27.1 points per game. For his career, he's averaged 21.5 per game. He brings an immediate scorer to the guard position. Chris Darrington is a bit more of an unknown commodity for the upcoming season, but he was a quality player for Vincennes University in the JUCO ranks, averaging 20.7 points per game, 5.1 assists, and hitting on just over 43% of his three point attempts. He was the Vols leading scorer during their European exhibition tour with a 14.3 point per game average.
In the paint, the Vols brought in at least two players ready to make an impact this season, and one of them may already be positioned to start for the Vols after a big trip to Europe. Derrick Walker may be the missing piece in the paint for the Vols, averaging 13 points and 8 rebounds per game during the European tour. He and last season's freshman phenom, Grant Williams, provide a big bodied duo with solid height at 6-8 and 6-7 respectively. The Vols dipped into the international waters to bring in Yves Pons, a Haitian native who played his high school ball in France. The 6-5, 205 pound wing player is an athletic slasher who can jump out of the building and rack up blocks. They added height in Zach Kent, who at 6-10, 224 probably could stand to redshirt and build on his frame. He's a flex player comfortable playing both in the paint and from behind the arc, hitting on 40% of his three point attempts during his junior season while also averaging nine rebounds per game.
Let's dive into things position by position now, beginning with point guard. Following averages of 7.6 points, 2.9 assists, and 1.7 rebounds per game in 23 games played (17 starts), Jordan Bone is the presumed starter at point guard entering the season. Bone appears to have earned the faith of head coach Rick Barnes to serve as the floor general, although he would do well to keep an eye over his shoulder. Lamonte Turner is a bit more of a combo guard, but he played in all 32 games last season with averages of 8.2 points, 2.7 assists, and 2.5 rebounds. For now, he appears to remain entrenched at point guard, but there are options among the new faces on the team. Chris Darrington and James Daniel III, despite also being combo guards, are also strong options at the point. At least early in the season, expect all four to get significant looks as the staff attempts to identify their best lineup ahead of SEC play.
At shooting guard, Jordan Bowden looks to lead the way. The 6-5 guard gives Tennessee length they've lacked at times since the departure of Jordan McRae and Josh Richardson. Bowden averaged 7.9 points per game and 2.9 rebounds last season while starting in 28 of 30 games played. Darrington and Daniel, although mentioned with regard to the point guard position, are both probably more natural shooting guards and will see plenty of minutes there as well. 6-7 guard Jalen Johnson is an option at the two or the three once he recovers from off-season surgery. He's a slashing guard in the mold of McRae when he first arrived on campus.
Small forward. Wing. Call it what you may, but this is perhaps the most athletically gifted spot on the roster right now. Little big man Admiral Schofield has a good case for holding the starting job down here all season. Despite only standing 6-5, the 238 pound forward looks like an SEC caliber defensive end physically and he plays with that kind of tenacity. Last season, he only got one start following the move of Robert Hubbs III to wing, but despite that he improved on his freshmen averages, putting up 8.2 points and 4.4 rebounds per game following a freshman campaign in which he started 22 games but only put up 7.6 points per contest and 4.0 rebounds. A newcomer to this mix is Yves Pons, who doesn't have the same physically imposing physique but has ridiculous athleticism. The aforementioned Jalen Johnson is also an option here, where he would be the tallest option but also the skinniest.
Power forward might be the most exciting spot on the roster right now. Last season, Grant Williams, an underheralded freshman, forced his way onto the Freshman All-SEC team with a dominant campaign in which he averaged 12.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.1 assists while also averaging just shy of 2 blocks per game and tacking on almost a steal per game for good measure. Hearing that, you'd assume the 6-7, 241 pound forward would be a lock to start, and yet a new freshman phenom may very well have unseated him. 6-8, 238 pound big man Derrick Walker arrived on campus ready to play and quickly established himself as a force on the floor during an overseas trip to Europe in which he averaged 13 points and 8 rebounds per game. A third strong candidate for minutes is working his way back from a major injury suffered last season. John Fulkerson was the early standout among the young forwards last season, breaking through quickly with 4.7 points and 4.6 rebounds per game through 10 games and 6 starts. He was also averaging almost a block per game and just over a steal per game. He was also proving to be a decent distributor from the paint with an assist per game. Regardless of which of these three is on the floor, fans should feel comfortable that the job is in good hands.
Center has an experienced starter in Kyle Alexander, but he's also someone who has been working to get his legs under him. The big man hails from Canada and has shown steady improvement following each season, but he may have truly taken a significant step this summer when he averaged 9 rebounds per game in Europe. Alexander averaged 3.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, and a block per game last season, one in which he registered 23 starts after starting just 11 contests the year before. Particularly against teams with smaller frontcourts, it's possible Walker, Fulkerson, or Williams could supplant him to start those games. An intriguing possibility to play this season might be Zach Kent, a player many thought might be on his way to a redshirt. A 6-10, 224 pound freshman, Kent is a big man with the shot to knock down threes. Kent has been mentioned by Barnes as a candidate to play at power forward as well in order to allow him to step outside. He's been mentioned as possibly the most improved freshman over the summer, so he may have a shot to avoid the redshirt.
All that sounds great, but ultimately people want to know what they should expect from the team. While the November 2nd exhibition against Carson-Newman will give us our first look at the team, the best preseason test will come against Clemson in South Carolina on Sunday. At a glace, I see six likely losses. The two meetings with Kentucky, on the road against Purdue, home against North Carolina, and home contests with Texas A&M and Florida. I'd say at this point a realistic expectation for the team is probably something along the lines of 18-12 to 20-10, which would likely leave them firmly sitting on the bubble around 4-6 in the SEC standings. That assumes reasonable health and steady progression from returning players and significant contributions from the newcomers. This is the first team Barnes has had in Knoxville with the size to compete as well as the shooting and athleticism to keep up with the majority of teams they'll face.
For a bit of perspective on how close Tennessee was last year to a big season, they lost by 8 points to Sweet Sixteen participant Wisconsin, 2 points to eventual national champs North Carolina, 10 points to national runner up Gonzaga, 4 points to tournament team Arkansas, 10 points to Final Four team South Carolina, beat Kentucky at home...well, you get the point. A late season collapse last year had much to do with poor shooting averages and injury issues. A stronger frontcourt and deeper group of guard who can hit threes and attack the rim should allow Tennessee to finish off some of the opponents they faded against down the stretch last season.
Assuming a true best case scenario, there's a slim chance for Tennessee to wind up with a 24-6 record (only counting on regular season games definitely scheduled). At that point, Tennessee would likely be a top three SEC team and a lock for the SEC tournament. That's no doubt too much to hope for, but 18-20 wins certainly seems reasonable for a team that finished last season at 16-16 and returns five of their top seven scorers and four of their top five rebounders. At some point, the solid recruiting and development will lead to wins, and I'd wager this is the season in which fans see returns on their emotional investments.
Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Monday, September 18, 2017
Butch Jones: Time for Change or Nah?
The Butch Jones era at Tennessee has been a mixed bag. It's seen Tennessee progress from a perennial 7 loss team to back-to-back 9 win seasons, but those 9 win seasons have also come with heartbreakingly disappointing losses. Tennessee has the talent to be a top program in the SEC, but have yet to have better than the 2nd place in the SEC East or the 4th best record in the conference overall. That was enough for fans at one point as the rebuild was showing improving results, but now the rebuild is into year five and the pieces appear to be in place. Tennessee has a culture of winning and certainly the expectation of such, they have the talent and facilities, and despite spending big they also tend to earn big most years. That swings the focus to the man at the helm of the football program.
I'll start with my opinion on Jones, and understand that this is precisely that. I didn't want him in 2013, but at the same time we were swinging and missing with most other targets of note. In the end, Butch Jones was a beacon of hope in a storm of negativity surrounding the program after the blight that was the Derek Dooley era (or better put error) at Tennessee. He wasn't what you'd want for a program like Tennessee, but he was much better than the alternative of hiring another middling Group of Five type coach. Remember, Cincinnati was still in the Big East at that time and that conference was still considered a premier one for the most part despite the loss of a number of bigger name programs to other conferences. He was a hire that made sense, for the most part. That said, I had always noted his propensity to lose big games and felt he'd usually backed into most of his conference titles. He also seemed to have trouble managing personnel decisions and those issues were of concern to me. Thus far, he is who I thought he was, and that was a step up from where we were, but not a return to the glory days of old.
That brings us to the question of whether or not to make a change, and my answer is a bit involved. Tennessee tends to have strong budgets and annual earnings, but they also tend to have large expenditures that nearly keep pace with the earnings. In 2015-16, Tennessee earned over $140 million, but they also spent over $128 million. This year's anticipated athletic budget is close to $134 million, but that before upcoming earnings versus upcoming expenditures, and those expenditures can easily grow, especially if Tennessee is forced to make a change in significant programs. Well, firing a football staff and then hiring a new one is a pretty significant expenditure, and it's impossible to pretend that football is the only program in Knoxville facing a possible change at the top. Butch Jones still has a sizable buyout, and with all his new hires they could potentially add another huge hit to the budget and possibly even the surplus, which at last check was around $12 million. In essence, getting rid of Jones and company could run anywhere from $8-10 million, and while that doesn't all have to be paid out at once and can be reduced as they find other jobs, it's still a big hit against what can be spent on a new coach and staff.
Tennessee also has an impressive recruiting class in the works, and while that could change and if it does the argument may change, right now a change in staff would have a very detrimental impact on that class, one that current stands at #6 nationally and tops in the SEC. Current players would no doubt transfer and it would result in a setback that would have to be countered by a new hire of note, one that brings energy and strong recruiting chops. Such a hire would likely take a fair amount of money to bring on board, along with the cost of their new staff. If the finances aren't in order to make a change, doing so for the sake of doing so would mean a significant risk of regression in the program.
That said, there is a point at which the results become so poor or the internal turmoil of the program such that a change is necessary. If players are transferring, if there is a clear lack of effort by the team, if there are fights within the program, if recruiting begins to fall apart, Tennessee's hand will be forced regardless of the financial situation. While fans and boosters like to think they can influence change, that external temperature matters little unless people become willing to fund the change they want to see. That doesn't mean that they can't force an athletic director to make a change; it means that they may force a change that doesn't match their vision of the future for the program. Change is not always a good thing. Remember the Fulmer to Kiffin to Dooley transition? Change can go sideways on a program in a hurry if that program isn't prepared to vet and pay for the right coach and staff.
Where does that leave things? I don't think we really know yet. The frustration is palpable, but wins over the next three games would have the effect of dousing those flames. Beyond Alabama, no program looks untouchable, so the ultimate measure of the program is internal. Does the team rally behind Jones and push to win moving forward? Can the players overcoming coaching errors, or can the coaches overcome injuries and personnel issues? If not, does the whole thing fall apart?
If Tennessee is sitting at 3-3 and 0-3 in the SEC on October 15th, the damage inside and outside the program may be such that no financial considerations will save Jones. However, muster an 8-4 or 9-3 finish, and I think the buyout and finances will save Jones for another season at least. However, I would expect athletic director John Currie to be setting aside the money for a future change heading into and through the 2018 season. At this point, it would take winning the East and 10+ games to truly solidify Jones's position at Tennessee. Not one or the other, but both. The road is tough to see that happening by the end of this season, but it's also difficult to gauge whether or not the internal and external issues will force Currie's hand.
On this end, I'm fine with change if and when it makes sense financially and functionally. If the team isn't ready for change and the money isn't there, a big setback will be in the cards. However, if the money and the pulse of the team is such that a change can be made without significant transfers and with sufficient money in place to make a quality hire, we've probably seen as good as it gets with Butch Jones.
When the time comes to part ways, for my part I will say goodbye with a thank you. He made us a force in recruiting again. He re-energized a fan base that had been beaten to a pulp emotionally by the prior two head coaches. He made us an annual bowl team and a team of note once more, and oversaw our return to the top 25. While we may never get over the championship hump with Jones, we do owe him a debt of gratitude for what he did do for us, and we should never forget that. Unfortunately, good isn't good enough at Tennessee, a place where conference and national championships are part of the standard.
I'll start with my opinion on Jones, and understand that this is precisely that. I didn't want him in 2013, but at the same time we were swinging and missing with most other targets of note. In the end, Butch Jones was a beacon of hope in a storm of negativity surrounding the program after the blight that was the Derek Dooley era (or better put error) at Tennessee. He wasn't what you'd want for a program like Tennessee, but he was much better than the alternative of hiring another middling Group of Five type coach. Remember, Cincinnati was still in the Big East at that time and that conference was still considered a premier one for the most part despite the loss of a number of bigger name programs to other conferences. He was a hire that made sense, for the most part. That said, I had always noted his propensity to lose big games and felt he'd usually backed into most of his conference titles. He also seemed to have trouble managing personnel decisions and those issues were of concern to me. Thus far, he is who I thought he was, and that was a step up from where we were, but not a return to the glory days of old.
That brings us to the question of whether or not to make a change, and my answer is a bit involved. Tennessee tends to have strong budgets and annual earnings, but they also tend to have large expenditures that nearly keep pace with the earnings. In 2015-16, Tennessee earned over $140 million, but they also spent over $128 million. This year's anticipated athletic budget is close to $134 million, but that before upcoming earnings versus upcoming expenditures, and those expenditures can easily grow, especially if Tennessee is forced to make a change in significant programs. Well, firing a football staff and then hiring a new one is a pretty significant expenditure, and it's impossible to pretend that football is the only program in Knoxville facing a possible change at the top. Butch Jones still has a sizable buyout, and with all his new hires they could potentially add another huge hit to the budget and possibly even the surplus, which at last check was around $12 million. In essence, getting rid of Jones and company could run anywhere from $8-10 million, and while that doesn't all have to be paid out at once and can be reduced as they find other jobs, it's still a big hit against what can be spent on a new coach and staff.
Tennessee also has an impressive recruiting class in the works, and while that could change and if it does the argument may change, right now a change in staff would have a very detrimental impact on that class, one that current stands at #6 nationally and tops in the SEC. Current players would no doubt transfer and it would result in a setback that would have to be countered by a new hire of note, one that brings energy and strong recruiting chops. Such a hire would likely take a fair amount of money to bring on board, along with the cost of their new staff. If the finances aren't in order to make a change, doing so for the sake of doing so would mean a significant risk of regression in the program.
That said, there is a point at which the results become so poor or the internal turmoil of the program such that a change is necessary. If players are transferring, if there is a clear lack of effort by the team, if there are fights within the program, if recruiting begins to fall apart, Tennessee's hand will be forced regardless of the financial situation. While fans and boosters like to think they can influence change, that external temperature matters little unless people become willing to fund the change they want to see. That doesn't mean that they can't force an athletic director to make a change; it means that they may force a change that doesn't match their vision of the future for the program. Change is not always a good thing. Remember the Fulmer to Kiffin to Dooley transition? Change can go sideways on a program in a hurry if that program isn't prepared to vet and pay for the right coach and staff.
Where does that leave things? I don't think we really know yet. The frustration is palpable, but wins over the next three games would have the effect of dousing those flames. Beyond Alabama, no program looks untouchable, so the ultimate measure of the program is internal. Does the team rally behind Jones and push to win moving forward? Can the players overcoming coaching errors, or can the coaches overcome injuries and personnel issues? If not, does the whole thing fall apart?
If Tennessee is sitting at 3-3 and 0-3 in the SEC on October 15th, the damage inside and outside the program may be such that no financial considerations will save Jones. However, muster an 8-4 or 9-3 finish, and I think the buyout and finances will save Jones for another season at least. However, I would expect athletic director John Currie to be setting aside the money for a future change heading into and through the 2018 season. At this point, it would take winning the East and 10+ games to truly solidify Jones's position at Tennessee. Not one or the other, but both. The road is tough to see that happening by the end of this season, but it's also difficult to gauge whether or not the internal and external issues will force Currie's hand.
On this end, I'm fine with change if and when it makes sense financially and functionally. If the team isn't ready for change and the money isn't there, a big setback will be in the cards. However, if the money and the pulse of the team is such that a change can be made without significant transfers and with sufficient money in place to make a quality hire, we've probably seen as good as it gets with Butch Jones.
When the time comes to part ways, for my part I will say goodbye with a thank you. He made us a force in recruiting again. He re-energized a fan base that had been beaten to a pulp emotionally by the prior two head coaches. He made us an annual bowl team and a team of note once more, and oversaw our return to the top 25. While we may never get over the championship hump with Jones, we do owe him a debt of gratitude for what he did do for us, and we should never forget that. Unfortunately, good isn't good enough at Tennessee, a place where conference and national championships are part of the standard.
Tuesday, September 12, 2017
Indiana State Grades
Quarterbacks - Quinten Dormady was somehow both better and worse in this game than against Georgia Tech. If that doesn't make sense, I'll do my best to explain. Dormady was much more efficient against Indiana State on fewer passing attempts, tossing two touchdowns. However, he was also a bit more careless with the football, coughing up a fumble and throwing a pick. Jarrett Guarantano got his first real action and it was both underwhelming and impressive. He should have had two more passes end in completions, and he threw a nice touchdown pass to Jeff George among his four completions, but completing 33% of his passes and only rushing for six yards wasn't exactly an overwhelming performance. Dormady completed over 72% of his passes and the two quarterbacks combined for 3 touchdowns through the air. Not a great outing, but far from a bad one. The caliber of the opponent dings them on this one. They shouldn't have had the mistakes. C+
Running Backs - This is a mix of old and new news. Old news: John Kelly is still really good at football and the University of Tennessee's web team is still really bad at keeping the players straight on the stat sheet. New news: Ty Chandler, Tim Jordan, Trey Coleman, and Carlin Fils-aime are more than just serviceable backups, combining for 15 carries, 86 yards, and 2 touchdowns along with 2 receptions for 12 yards. Fils-aime has been a particularly impressive player in his limited career touches, with 17 carries for 99 yards and 4 touchdowns over the past two seasons. When it comes to Tennessee's game on the ground, there's been almost nothing to complain about. A
Receivers - Tennessee had 5 wide receivers that they rotated against Indiana State and...they did alright. The wideouts accounted for all the touchdown receptions. The running backs handled the rest of the receiving work with the exception of one reception by Eli Wolf, which resulted in Wolf missing the remainder of the game with an ankle sprain. I'll give the grade a bump for the limited receivers available combined with a solid performance, but I also have to deduct points for the lack of presence by senior tight end Ethan Wolf. He has to be a weapon for this team, and it hasn't materialized yet. B-
Offensive Line - All in all, the offensive line has been just fine. 8 tackles for loss allowed in 126 plays run, one sack allowed in 67 passing attempts, and a 5.22 yard per carry average. They've cleared the way for 6.06 yards per play with a mostly new group of playmakers at quarterback, receiver, and running back. They've been discombobulated at times, but they had a rough camp with regard to injuries. All things being equal, I have little to complain about. That said, they haven't been perfect by any means. B
Defensive Line - I think it's been hashed out more than enough that the defensive line has been playing off the ball and plenty of people don't like it. I would venture to say that given Georgia Tech's offense and the heavy shifting by Indiana State, it's been somewhat understandable. The question now is how the defensive line has handled their business, and against Indiana State the answer is more or less. Indiana State didn't pass much, so there wasn't much opportunity to bring a consistent pass rush, meaning they only had 2 quarterback hurries and one sack, but that's against only 19 passing attempts, so not great but not awful either. More noteworthy is the 11 tackles for loss mixed in among the 38 rushing attempts by Indiana State, who only averaged 3.2 yards per carry. Not the best game, but far from awful given the defense played pretty vanilla most of the day. B-
Linebackers - Tennessee has had 12 tackles for loss on the season. 7.5 of that has come from the defensive line or defensive backs. In other words, the linebackers have not been making many plays behind the line of scrimmage. My point being that although they've racked up the tackles, they've been making plays after gains by the offense. The top three linebackers are also the Vols top tacklers, so it hasn't been all bad by any means, but when only 3 of the 71 tackles are tackles for loss, something isn't quite kosher. C-
Defensive Backs - It's been hard to get a real feel for how good or bad this group may be. So far Tennessee's opponents have accounted for 62 rushing attempts and 14.5 passing attempts per game. The secondary has barely been called to action, and unfortunately that has led to the group losing focus at times. Clearly that's less than ideal, but they've only allowed a 48.3% completion percentage and one touchdown through two games. If I were being totally honest, this grade should be an incomplete, but given the help in run support from the safeties and nickel and the completion percentage, I'll settle for giving this group a C+ and re-evaluate them as we go forward and see more opponents who can pass more than 20 times in a game.
Special Teams - Still special. Trevor Daniel is one of the best punters in the country. Tennessee is 12th nationally in kickoff return average despite Evan Berry not yet being 100%. Marquez Callaway is 21st nationally in punt return average despite only having four returns so far. Tennessee is tied for 16th nationally in kickoff average and 19th in touchback average. They haven't kicked a field goal yet but Aaron Medley is perfect on PATs despite having kicked 12 through two games, good for 15th nationally in PAT attempts per game. Basically perfect so far. A
Coaching - This wasn't perfect, but all things considered the plan was solid, it worked well, the rotation of the quarterbacks and running backs was fine, there were no major injuries, and there weren't any significant coaching flubs. Nothing special occurred, but nothing problematic did either. Solid B.
Running Backs - This is a mix of old and new news. Old news: John Kelly is still really good at football and the University of Tennessee's web team is still really bad at keeping the players straight on the stat sheet. New news: Ty Chandler, Tim Jordan, Trey Coleman, and Carlin Fils-aime are more than just serviceable backups, combining for 15 carries, 86 yards, and 2 touchdowns along with 2 receptions for 12 yards. Fils-aime has been a particularly impressive player in his limited career touches, with 17 carries for 99 yards and 4 touchdowns over the past two seasons. When it comes to Tennessee's game on the ground, there's been almost nothing to complain about. A
Receivers - Tennessee had 5 wide receivers that they rotated against Indiana State and...they did alright. The wideouts accounted for all the touchdown receptions. The running backs handled the rest of the receiving work with the exception of one reception by Eli Wolf, which resulted in Wolf missing the remainder of the game with an ankle sprain. I'll give the grade a bump for the limited receivers available combined with a solid performance, but I also have to deduct points for the lack of presence by senior tight end Ethan Wolf. He has to be a weapon for this team, and it hasn't materialized yet. B-
Offensive Line - All in all, the offensive line has been just fine. 8 tackles for loss allowed in 126 plays run, one sack allowed in 67 passing attempts, and a 5.22 yard per carry average. They've cleared the way for 6.06 yards per play with a mostly new group of playmakers at quarterback, receiver, and running back. They've been discombobulated at times, but they had a rough camp with regard to injuries. All things being equal, I have little to complain about. That said, they haven't been perfect by any means. B
Defensive Line - I think it's been hashed out more than enough that the defensive line has been playing off the ball and plenty of people don't like it. I would venture to say that given Georgia Tech's offense and the heavy shifting by Indiana State, it's been somewhat understandable. The question now is how the defensive line has handled their business, and against Indiana State the answer is more or less. Indiana State didn't pass much, so there wasn't much opportunity to bring a consistent pass rush, meaning they only had 2 quarterback hurries and one sack, but that's against only 19 passing attempts, so not great but not awful either. More noteworthy is the 11 tackles for loss mixed in among the 38 rushing attempts by Indiana State, who only averaged 3.2 yards per carry. Not the best game, but far from awful given the defense played pretty vanilla most of the day. B-
Linebackers - Tennessee has had 12 tackles for loss on the season. 7.5 of that has come from the defensive line or defensive backs. In other words, the linebackers have not been making many plays behind the line of scrimmage. My point being that although they've racked up the tackles, they've been making plays after gains by the offense. The top three linebackers are also the Vols top tacklers, so it hasn't been all bad by any means, but when only 3 of the 71 tackles are tackles for loss, something isn't quite kosher. C-
Defensive Backs - It's been hard to get a real feel for how good or bad this group may be. So far Tennessee's opponents have accounted for 62 rushing attempts and 14.5 passing attempts per game. The secondary has barely been called to action, and unfortunately that has led to the group losing focus at times. Clearly that's less than ideal, but they've only allowed a 48.3% completion percentage and one touchdown through two games. If I were being totally honest, this grade should be an incomplete, but given the help in run support from the safeties and nickel and the completion percentage, I'll settle for giving this group a C+ and re-evaluate them as we go forward and see more opponents who can pass more than 20 times in a game.
Special Teams - Still special. Trevor Daniel is one of the best punters in the country. Tennessee is 12th nationally in kickoff return average despite Evan Berry not yet being 100%. Marquez Callaway is 21st nationally in punt return average despite only having four returns so far. Tennessee is tied for 16th nationally in kickoff average and 19th in touchback average. They haven't kicked a field goal yet but Aaron Medley is perfect on PATs despite having kicked 12 through two games, good for 15th nationally in PAT attempts per game. Basically perfect so far. A
Coaching - This wasn't perfect, but all things considered the plan was solid, it worked well, the rotation of the quarterbacks and running backs was fine, there were no major injuries, and there weren't any significant coaching flubs. Nothing special occurred, but nothing problematic did either. Solid B.
Wednesday, September 6, 2017
Georgia Tech Coaching Grades
This isn't about individual players but about the game plan and adjustments made in the game. My grades will be influenced by how the staff adjusted during the game in order to better execute. Let's dive in.
Offense: This was definitely a tale of two halves in this game, but I think it actually showed something very promising; Larry Scott has a clear understanding of how to make adjustments during the game. The first half saw the offense account for grand totals of 28 plays, 94 yards, and 3.36 yards per play. Their lone first half touchdown came following a fumble recovery. John Kelly had 10 touches for 53 yards and a touchdown. The second half and overtime? 31 plays, 287 yards, and 9.26 yards per play. That is an enormous swing, and considering that quarterback Quinten Dormady went into the half having completed a bleak 8-20 for 52 yards yet finished the game by throwing for 12-17 for 169 yards and 2 touchdowns in the second half plus overtime. John Kelly's second half/OT? 14 touches for 110 yards and three touchdowns. While that first half production was pretty plainly a D or worse grade, his second half was a solid A. I'll split the difference and give Larry Scott and staff a grade of C+ for the game. The initial game plan was severely flawed, but the adjustments made in the game were excellent.
Defense: The early results were fairly promising. Tennessee was containing the Yellow Jacket offense. They appeared to have a great plan of attack. The defense was flying to the football and showing aggressive play. Then TaQuon Marshall hit Ricky Jeune on a 44 yard pass in which corner Justin Martin was out of position and everything fell apart. Prior to that moment, Tennessee had limited Tech to 11 plays and 32 yards. The floodgates were open after that moment. Tennessee had opted to have the defensive linemen play off the football, giving them time to read and react. The linebackers prior to that pass play were attacking and aggressive. The defensive backs played loose coverage in order to better beat potential blocks so that they could react to option plays to the edge. Suddenly, everyone was playing tentatively. The defense had been knocked back on their heels and with the exception of a couple forced fumbles, Tennessee would never fully regain form in the game. The entire defense became reactive instead of proactive, meaning they could no longer disrupt plays and were going to constantly give up yards in chunks. Georgia Tech is tough to defend at the best of times, but the initial instinct of Bob Shoop to attack with the linebackers, give the defensive line a cushion to react to the blocks, and have the defensive backs offer up a cushion to react. However, the defensive backs gave too much cushion. There is a big difference between 3-4 yards off the receiver and 8-10 yards off. The linebackers were too quick to let off the aggressive approach when a big play finally happened. The defensive ends were solid, but the defensive tackles were too content to be space eaters. The intentions weren't terrible, but the plan was abandoned too quickly and the adjustments never came. Shoop lost control of his defense in this game, and that cannot be allowed to happen the rest of the season. I'll give Shoop a C- only because of the forced turnovers. It's obvious he worked with the defenders on stripping the ball, and three forced fumbles and two recoveries is worth a bump in the grade.
Special Teams: After something of a rough season on special teams last year compared to seasons past under Jones, Tennessee looked every bit their old selves against Georgia Tech. Trevor Daniel regularly flipped the field. Evan Berry and company handled returns well. Paul Bain's blocked field goal was the cherry on top, and Aaron Medley continued to be sure-footed on kickoffs and PATs. I have nothing bad to say about the results here at all. Solid A performance. Keep it up, boys.
Head Coach/Game Management: Butch Jones continues to be frustratingly inconsistent when it comes to game management, but he does seem to motivate his team to play, even when, or perhaps especially when, the odds are against them. Even so, Jones has to become a better game manager. He bailed out Georgia Tech at one point when they were looking at a delay of game. At the end of the first half, he failed to utilize his two timeouts despite having the potential to score had he done so, running a play without any further planning along the sideline before going for it on 4th and 2. Game management continues to be one of Jones's biggest weaknesses, and at this point it seems unlikely to be an area he improves in. However, as Les Miles proved at LSU, you can win in spite of that particular weakness. For keeping his team motivated and believing they could win, I'll go ahead and give him a bump to a C+, but if this were a loss he'd be solidly in D territory.
Overall: This was incredibly ugly. Despite the special teams excellence and strong close, Tennessee failed to show up to start the game and Butch Jones neglected to properly manage the clock. The defense really didn't show up at all after the first couple GT possessions other than some standout individual performances that led to turnovers. Tennessee needed to come out and have a stronger showing, but yet again I'm left wondering if that will ever be the M.O. of a Butch Jones coached team. I'll assign a C grade because they got the win, but even against a frustrating Georgia Tech offense, they made that defense look too good for too long and failed to capitalize on excellent field position numerous times.
Offense: This was definitely a tale of two halves in this game, but I think it actually showed something very promising; Larry Scott has a clear understanding of how to make adjustments during the game. The first half saw the offense account for grand totals of 28 plays, 94 yards, and 3.36 yards per play. Their lone first half touchdown came following a fumble recovery. John Kelly had 10 touches for 53 yards and a touchdown. The second half and overtime? 31 plays, 287 yards, and 9.26 yards per play. That is an enormous swing, and considering that quarterback Quinten Dormady went into the half having completed a bleak 8-20 for 52 yards yet finished the game by throwing for 12-17 for 169 yards and 2 touchdowns in the second half plus overtime. John Kelly's second half/OT? 14 touches for 110 yards and three touchdowns. While that first half production was pretty plainly a D or worse grade, his second half was a solid A. I'll split the difference and give Larry Scott and staff a grade of C+ for the game. The initial game plan was severely flawed, but the adjustments made in the game were excellent.
Defense: The early results were fairly promising. Tennessee was containing the Yellow Jacket offense. They appeared to have a great plan of attack. The defense was flying to the football and showing aggressive play. Then TaQuon Marshall hit Ricky Jeune on a 44 yard pass in which corner Justin Martin was out of position and everything fell apart. Prior to that moment, Tennessee had limited Tech to 11 plays and 32 yards. The floodgates were open after that moment. Tennessee had opted to have the defensive linemen play off the football, giving them time to read and react. The linebackers prior to that pass play were attacking and aggressive. The defensive backs played loose coverage in order to better beat potential blocks so that they could react to option plays to the edge. Suddenly, everyone was playing tentatively. The defense had been knocked back on their heels and with the exception of a couple forced fumbles, Tennessee would never fully regain form in the game. The entire defense became reactive instead of proactive, meaning they could no longer disrupt plays and were going to constantly give up yards in chunks. Georgia Tech is tough to defend at the best of times, but the initial instinct of Bob Shoop to attack with the linebackers, give the defensive line a cushion to react to the blocks, and have the defensive backs offer up a cushion to react. However, the defensive backs gave too much cushion. There is a big difference between 3-4 yards off the receiver and 8-10 yards off. The linebackers were too quick to let off the aggressive approach when a big play finally happened. The defensive ends were solid, but the defensive tackles were too content to be space eaters. The intentions weren't terrible, but the plan was abandoned too quickly and the adjustments never came. Shoop lost control of his defense in this game, and that cannot be allowed to happen the rest of the season. I'll give Shoop a C- only because of the forced turnovers. It's obvious he worked with the defenders on stripping the ball, and three forced fumbles and two recoveries is worth a bump in the grade.
Special Teams: After something of a rough season on special teams last year compared to seasons past under Jones, Tennessee looked every bit their old selves against Georgia Tech. Trevor Daniel regularly flipped the field. Evan Berry and company handled returns well. Paul Bain's blocked field goal was the cherry on top, and Aaron Medley continued to be sure-footed on kickoffs and PATs. I have nothing bad to say about the results here at all. Solid A performance. Keep it up, boys.
Head Coach/Game Management: Butch Jones continues to be frustratingly inconsistent when it comes to game management, but he does seem to motivate his team to play, even when, or perhaps especially when, the odds are against them. Even so, Jones has to become a better game manager. He bailed out Georgia Tech at one point when they were looking at a delay of game. At the end of the first half, he failed to utilize his two timeouts despite having the potential to score had he done so, running a play without any further planning along the sideline before going for it on 4th and 2. Game management continues to be one of Jones's biggest weaknesses, and at this point it seems unlikely to be an area he improves in. However, as Les Miles proved at LSU, you can win in spite of that particular weakness. For keeping his team motivated and believing they could win, I'll go ahead and give him a bump to a C+, but if this were a loss he'd be solidly in D territory.
Overall: This was incredibly ugly. Despite the special teams excellence and strong close, Tennessee failed to show up to start the game and Butch Jones neglected to properly manage the clock. The defense really didn't show up at all after the first couple GT possessions other than some standout individual performances that led to turnovers. Tennessee needed to come out and have a stronger showing, but yet again I'm left wondering if that will ever be the M.O. of a Butch Jones coached team. I'll assign a C grade because they got the win, but even against a frustrating Georgia Tech offense, they made that defense look too good for too long and failed to capitalize on excellent field position numerous times.
Tuesday, August 22, 2017
Recruiting Update, 8-22
Tennessee has added a couple of commitments since my last recruiting update, and that has helped to make the recruiting picture a little bit clearer as well. First, let's look at the two new names on the board.
Paxton Brooks was the first to join the class on the 17th. Brooks has been ranked by the 247Sports Composite as a 3-star kicker, although he is expected to punt for Tennessee. According to Kohl's Professional Camps, Brooks is the #2 punter in the nation in the class of 2018, averaging 41.8 yards per punt during his junior season. Brooks is currently awaiting the update to the specialists on 247Sports as well as awaiting rankings from Scout and Rivals. ESPN has Brooks as the #5 kicker in the nation and the top rated punter. The 6-5, 170 pound has been working on improving his hang time, something the Vols staff has asked him to do. He will likely compete with current freshman Joe Doyle for the punting job next season as they vie to be the player to replace senior Trevor Daniel.
Up next was Shocky Jacques-Louis, who pulled the trigger for Tennessee yesterday. The 6-1, 175 pound wide receiver is a former and now future teammate of freshman linebacker Shanon Reid. Among his many offers were Kentucky, South Carolina, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Michigan, Michigan State, and Georgia. As a junior, Jacques-Louis had 20 receptions for 314 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns along with a touchdown on a kickoff return and one on a punt return. He is a player who fits the mold of what the staff was looking to add this cycle, a speedy receiver who can make deep plays. He should be the last receiver in the class.
Now, Tennessee's staff, one way or another, is of the belief that they can squeeze 24 into this class. I don't see how, but they've proven their magical ability to exceed expectations with their past classes, so at this point I'm assuming they have some plan of attack for this. That means that without attrition, they have two spots remaining. One of those two spots seems likely to go toward a defensive end. The other spot left in the class likely has two possibilities: Jerome Carvin or a defensive end. Under the number crunch, in order to take Jaycee Horn or their seeming backup plan in Dashon Bussell, they would probably have to cut loose someone somewhere. I don't know that they have this as high a priority at this time as some might think, and they could very well be pursuing another corner as a luxury rather than a necessity. Another option could be adding Carvin and dropping another offensive line commit.
Of course, the staff is likely to have a couple battles ahead of them to keep certain guys in the fold. Anthony Grant, Lyn-J Dixon, and Dorian Gerald are players who certainly haven't closed the door on looking around at other options. That's not to say that any of them are likely to flip, as at this time I wouldn't consider any of them imminent threats to decommit, but it's something to keep an eye on. South Carolina, Louisville, and Florida are teams pursuing Gerald. Clemson is certainly pursuing Dixon, and Georgia has offered Grant.
Some are still holding out hope for Tennessee to get 25 into the class, but at this point I'm not seeing that as being realistic so much as wishful thinking. However, if that were to happen, it would certainly help with the numbers as Tennessee would be in a situation where they could add needs and luxuries to round out the class. I'm not currently seeing anything that I would consider an imminent commitment, but as we've continued to see with this cycle, anything is possible.
Paxton Brooks was the first to join the class on the 17th. Brooks has been ranked by the 247Sports Composite as a 3-star kicker, although he is expected to punt for Tennessee. According to Kohl's Professional Camps, Brooks is the #2 punter in the nation in the class of 2018, averaging 41.8 yards per punt during his junior season. Brooks is currently awaiting the update to the specialists on 247Sports as well as awaiting rankings from Scout and Rivals. ESPN has Brooks as the #5 kicker in the nation and the top rated punter. The 6-5, 170 pound has been working on improving his hang time, something the Vols staff has asked him to do. He will likely compete with current freshman Joe Doyle for the punting job next season as they vie to be the player to replace senior Trevor Daniel.
Up next was Shocky Jacques-Louis, who pulled the trigger for Tennessee yesterday. The 6-1, 175 pound wide receiver is a former and now future teammate of freshman linebacker Shanon Reid. Among his many offers were Kentucky, South Carolina, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Michigan, Michigan State, and Georgia. As a junior, Jacques-Louis had 20 receptions for 314 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns along with a touchdown on a kickoff return and one on a punt return. He is a player who fits the mold of what the staff was looking to add this cycle, a speedy receiver who can make deep plays. He should be the last receiver in the class.
Now, Tennessee's staff, one way or another, is of the belief that they can squeeze 24 into this class. I don't see how, but they've proven their magical ability to exceed expectations with their past classes, so at this point I'm assuming they have some plan of attack for this. That means that without attrition, they have two spots remaining. One of those two spots seems likely to go toward a defensive end. The other spot left in the class likely has two possibilities: Jerome Carvin or a defensive end. Under the number crunch, in order to take Jaycee Horn or their seeming backup plan in Dashon Bussell, they would probably have to cut loose someone somewhere. I don't know that they have this as high a priority at this time as some might think, and they could very well be pursuing another corner as a luxury rather than a necessity. Another option could be adding Carvin and dropping another offensive line commit.
Of course, the staff is likely to have a couple battles ahead of them to keep certain guys in the fold. Anthony Grant, Lyn-J Dixon, and Dorian Gerald are players who certainly haven't closed the door on looking around at other options. That's not to say that any of them are likely to flip, as at this time I wouldn't consider any of them imminent threats to decommit, but it's something to keep an eye on. South Carolina, Louisville, and Florida are teams pursuing Gerald. Clemson is certainly pursuing Dixon, and Georgia has offered Grant.
Some are still holding out hope for Tennessee to get 25 into the class, but at this point I'm not seeing that as being realistic so much as wishful thinking. However, if that were to happen, it would certainly help with the numbers as Tennessee would be in a situation where they could add needs and luxuries to round out the class. I'm not currently seeing anything that I would consider an imminent commitment, but as we've continued to see with this cycle, anything is possible.
Wednesday, August 16, 2017
2017 Season Prediction
I confess that I'm still on the fence about many things and really nailing down a prediction isn't proving easy for me. There are still plenty of questions surrounding this team. In the end, it's come down to one of a handful of options: the safe choice, the pessimistic result, or the best-case scenario. So how to choose and evaluate my feelings on the projections for this season is now the big thing left to decide.
I'll be the first to admit I have questions about Butch Jones. I have since he was hired. I never thought his ceiling was going to be as high as fans would want it to be, and I long suspected he would become a victim of the renewed championship expectations in Knoxville once things stabilized. That still may be the case, but he did address one of my bigger criticisms; he went out and started making the best possible hires instead of just hiring his friends.
In fact, his impressive new hires are really the biggest reason I think Jones might just exceed his past limitations. Some head coaches make their assistants better like Nick Saban has always done, but a good group of assistants can elevate a head coach to a different level, which is very much what I think has taken place at Clemson under Dabo Swinney. Right now, Butch appears to have assembled a staff with the capacity to do that for him.
The roster has talent. It has a surprising amount of experience. It's still pretty unproven, however. Few of the highest rated former recruits on the roster have performed up to their high school rankings yet. However, proven production aside, the talent is present and the upside for the team is pretty obvious. Well, as long as they're healthy, which was a big issue last year.
Then there are the opponents. Georgia still has to prove they have playmakers at receiver, an improved offensive line, and a defense that can stop opponents consistently. Florida has to have their team on the field instead of suspended, replace the bulk of the defense, and settle on a quarterback. South Carolina has arguably the SEC's least ideal defensive end situation. Georgia Tech is banking on a new quarterback to lead the offense. LSU has a new head man, a roster being battered by attrition, and a quarterback situation that they wish included a game manager. In fact, they've converted the #1 safety in the last class into a wide receiver just trying to make the passing game better. Bottom line, aside from maybe Alabama, no opponent is unbeatable.
Tennessee has a pretty solid situation at the offensive skill positions and quarterback, and a very strong situation on the offensive line (when everyone is healthy and at practice). They have two five stars and a four star leading the way at end to replace 1st round draft pick Derek Barnett. They return the defensive tackles, who are healthier than at the end of last season. The linebackers are fairly deep and pretty talented. The secondary is settled at safety and deeper at corner than a year ago. The corners aren't a finished product yet, but they appear to be improved over last season with a new position coach.
So will I play it safe, go all in, or low ball it in order to keep people happier regardless of the outcome? Well, I'm not much of a gambler, but not because I haven't done it before. In fact, I used to do it too much, especially playing poker. I was a very aggressive player, which meant that I either won big or lost big. In a true gambler's spirit, I'm going all in on this team. The truth is that there really is a limit on being snakebit unless you're the Cubs or Red Sox, and even they overcame the unlucky streaks eventually.
10-2 regular season with losses to Georgia and Alabama. As much as I would love to see Tennessee top the Dawgs again, at some point talent matters and Georgia has it for days. They have experience as well. None of their question marks appear to be crippling, so overcoming them looks pretty practical. Alabama is...well, Alabama. I'd love to tell you that Tennessee is as talented as them, but we aren't that talented. I'd love to say we had a coach on Saban's level, but aside from maybe Urban Meyer that doesn't exist. They are proven at every level on both sides of the ball in Tuscaloosa, same as usual because even the backups played and played well last season. Alabama may not be running the table, but as far as Tennessee's schedule goes, they're the best on the slate.
I think the Georgia Tech hand-wringing is a bit overblown. GT can certainly catch teams off-guard, but this idea of them as some explosive giant slayer is certainly a myth. Last season, their biggest win over a Power 5 opponent was 15 points against Kentucky in the bowl game. That was their biggest win since their 15 point bowl win in 2014. That 11-3 campaign in 2014-15 is as good as it's gotten for the Rambling Wreck. Under Paul Johnson, the Yellow Jackets have averaged 7.8 wins overall and 4.7 conference wins per season with an average division finish of 2.6 in the standings. The last two seasons have represented their worst division finishes under Johnson and the conference appears to be leaving Georgia Tech behind and everyone appears to be figuring them out.
Unfortunately, that probably means no SEC title game again. I've tried finding two losses on Georgia's schedule, but if they are playing up to the level they should Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida are probably the only possible threats and I would guess that Auburn is the only likely loss if one is coming in the regular season. I feel the same way for Alabama, ultimately, and that may actually mean Alabama fails to make the title game too if they drop the Auburn game. Time will tell if Auburn is fool's gold, but I have to admit that they look bright and shiny right now. I'm saying the title game is Georgia versus the winner of Alabama-Auburn. I would also place Alabama and Auburn on alert against their respective ACC foes. Both look pretty dangerous to draw early in the season.
Now, missing out on the division title might be a blessing in disguise, especially if there is a season finish in which no SEC team has fewer than two losses, which is certainly possible. Tennessee would then have the earliest loss of the bunch and arguably the best standing in the rankings at that point. That's not to say the Vols are heading to the playoff as I think that would likely go to the conference champ, but it would very likely put them first in line for a New Year's Six bowl. The Sugar Bowl is part of the playoff this year, so although I'm guessing here I think the Peach Bowl would be the likely landing spot. I'm of the opinion that Florida State wins the ACC and represents them in the playoff, but I don't think Virginia Tech will be that far behind and I am of the opinion that they will represent the ACC in the New Year's Six bowls against the Vols in a rematch of the 2009 Peach Bowl. That particular bowl has been particularly unkind to Tennessee, with the Vols going 1-4 in their five appearances, but I think this gives them their second Peach Bowl victory in front of another impressive crowd.
This pushes Butch Jones to his first 11 win season since 2009 at Central Michigan and first double digit win season since 2011 at Cincinnati. I would expect some staff turnover following the season, but I think Jones will also see a nice raise and extension that will either please or anger fans depending on their take on Jones. It would be Tennessee's first 11 win season since 2001 and also their first double digit winning season since 2007.
Another thing worth noting is this: since Butch Jones arrived at Tennessee, I've predicted the team to go 5-7, 7-6, 9-4, and 12-2. With the exception of last season, I've generally had a pretty good bead on what the team would do under Jones. This season is a lot tougher to get a read on, but I'm generally optimistic because I think the changes that have taken place in Knoxville have been for the better. We'll see if my optimism is ultimately rewarded.
I'll be the first to admit I have questions about Butch Jones. I have since he was hired. I never thought his ceiling was going to be as high as fans would want it to be, and I long suspected he would become a victim of the renewed championship expectations in Knoxville once things stabilized. That still may be the case, but he did address one of my bigger criticisms; he went out and started making the best possible hires instead of just hiring his friends.
In fact, his impressive new hires are really the biggest reason I think Jones might just exceed his past limitations. Some head coaches make their assistants better like Nick Saban has always done, but a good group of assistants can elevate a head coach to a different level, which is very much what I think has taken place at Clemson under Dabo Swinney. Right now, Butch appears to have assembled a staff with the capacity to do that for him.
The roster has talent. It has a surprising amount of experience. It's still pretty unproven, however. Few of the highest rated former recruits on the roster have performed up to their high school rankings yet. However, proven production aside, the talent is present and the upside for the team is pretty obvious. Well, as long as they're healthy, which was a big issue last year.
Then there are the opponents. Georgia still has to prove they have playmakers at receiver, an improved offensive line, and a defense that can stop opponents consistently. Florida has to have their team on the field instead of suspended, replace the bulk of the defense, and settle on a quarterback. South Carolina has arguably the SEC's least ideal defensive end situation. Georgia Tech is banking on a new quarterback to lead the offense. LSU has a new head man, a roster being battered by attrition, and a quarterback situation that they wish included a game manager. In fact, they've converted the #1 safety in the last class into a wide receiver just trying to make the passing game better. Bottom line, aside from maybe Alabama, no opponent is unbeatable.
Tennessee has a pretty solid situation at the offensive skill positions and quarterback, and a very strong situation on the offensive line (when everyone is healthy and at practice). They have two five stars and a four star leading the way at end to replace 1st round draft pick Derek Barnett. They return the defensive tackles, who are healthier than at the end of last season. The linebackers are fairly deep and pretty talented. The secondary is settled at safety and deeper at corner than a year ago. The corners aren't a finished product yet, but they appear to be improved over last season with a new position coach.
So will I play it safe, go all in, or low ball it in order to keep people happier regardless of the outcome? Well, I'm not much of a gambler, but not because I haven't done it before. In fact, I used to do it too much, especially playing poker. I was a very aggressive player, which meant that I either won big or lost big. In a true gambler's spirit, I'm going all in on this team. The truth is that there really is a limit on being snakebit unless you're the Cubs or Red Sox, and even they overcame the unlucky streaks eventually.
10-2 regular season with losses to Georgia and Alabama. As much as I would love to see Tennessee top the Dawgs again, at some point talent matters and Georgia has it for days. They have experience as well. None of their question marks appear to be crippling, so overcoming them looks pretty practical. Alabama is...well, Alabama. I'd love to tell you that Tennessee is as talented as them, but we aren't that talented. I'd love to say we had a coach on Saban's level, but aside from maybe Urban Meyer that doesn't exist. They are proven at every level on both sides of the ball in Tuscaloosa, same as usual because even the backups played and played well last season. Alabama may not be running the table, but as far as Tennessee's schedule goes, they're the best on the slate.
I think the Georgia Tech hand-wringing is a bit overblown. GT can certainly catch teams off-guard, but this idea of them as some explosive giant slayer is certainly a myth. Last season, their biggest win over a Power 5 opponent was 15 points against Kentucky in the bowl game. That was their biggest win since their 15 point bowl win in 2014. That 11-3 campaign in 2014-15 is as good as it's gotten for the Rambling Wreck. Under Paul Johnson, the Yellow Jackets have averaged 7.8 wins overall and 4.7 conference wins per season with an average division finish of 2.6 in the standings. The last two seasons have represented their worst division finishes under Johnson and the conference appears to be leaving Georgia Tech behind and everyone appears to be figuring them out.
Unfortunately, that probably means no SEC title game again. I've tried finding two losses on Georgia's schedule, but if they are playing up to the level they should Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida are probably the only possible threats and I would guess that Auburn is the only likely loss if one is coming in the regular season. I feel the same way for Alabama, ultimately, and that may actually mean Alabama fails to make the title game too if they drop the Auburn game. Time will tell if Auburn is fool's gold, but I have to admit that they look bright and shiny right now. I'm saying the title game is Georgia versus the winner of Alabama-Auburn. I would also place Alabama and Auburn on alert against their respective ACC foes. Both look pretty dangerous to draw early in the season.
Now, missing out on the division title might be a blessing in disguise, especially if there is a season finish in which no SEC team has fewer than two losses, which is certainly possible. Tennessee would then have the earliest loss of the bunch and arguably the best standing in the rankings at that point. That's not to say the Vols are heading to the playoff as I think that would likely go to the conference champ, but it would very likely put them first in line for a New Year's Six bowl. The Sugar Bowl is part of the playoff this year, so although I'm guessing here I think the Peach Bowl would be the likely landing spot. I'm of the opinion that Florida State wins the ACC and represents them in the playoff, but I don't think Virginia Tech will be that far behind and I am of the opinion that they will represent the ACC in the New Year's Six bowls against the Vols in a rematch of the 2009 Peach Bowl. That particular bowl has been particularly unkind to Tennessee, with the Vols going 1-4 in their five appearances, but I think this gives them their second Peach Bowl victory in front of another impressive crowd.
This pushes Butch Jones to his first 11 win season since 2009 at Central Michigan and first double digit win season since 2011 at Cincinnati. I would expect some staff turnover following the season, but I think Jones will also see a nice raise and extension that will either please or anger fans depending on their take on Jones. It would be Tennessee's first 11 win season since 2001 and also their first double digit winning season since 2007.
Another thing worth noting is this: since Butch Jones arrived at Tennessee, I've predicted the team to go 5-7, 7-6, 9-4, and 12-2. With the exception of last season, I've generally had a pretty good bead on what the team would do under Jones. This season is a lot tougher to get a read on, but I'm generally optimistic because I think the changes that have taken place in Knoxville have been for the better. We'll see if my optimism is ultimately rewarded.
Monday, August 14, 2017
15 Players to Watch in 2017
These guys aren't in any sort of order other than how they stand out to me in my mind. Some will make huge impacts. Others won't stuff the statsheet but will play major roles as the season progresses. These are the relative unknowns (outside the program, anyway) who appear poised to be a big part of Team 121.
Marquez Callaway - I cannot emphasize this enough: Callaway looks like the best candidate to serve as Jauan Jenning's #2 this season. Josh Malone wouldn't have had the season he had last year without Jennings garnering attention, and Callaway has to be able to provide that for Jennings this season. I personally think he will. Callaway is an athletic specimen with the frame you love to see in a wide receiver. He has length, speed, and leaping ability, and his hands have progressed a fair bit from last season. He's still not a finished product, but he's probably not far off from where Jennings was last season. Callaway has guys pushing him to be better, and he seems to be answering the call while coming out of his shell more and more. He has star potential.
Ty Chandler - This seems obvious, but he really does bring an explosive element that the roster needed in order to help replace the loss of Alvin Kamara to the NFL. He's not the most impressive looking player physically right now, but despite looking a bit like a large slot receiver or small wideout, he runs out of the backfield like the type of speed back every team would love to have. He's not small, but he's not nearly as big as he'll become, and he doesn't look like he'll lose any of his speed and quickness as he grows and develops. Where most running backs are either quick or fast, Chandler is both.
Josh Palmer - If there's a threat to Callaway's chances of starting, it might very well come in the form of this true freshman. He looks much further along both physically and technique-wise than anyone, the coaches included, could have hoped for. Palmer was a consensus 3-star, not the biggest or fastest of the receivers in the class, but he does seem to be the one making the most noise now. Of course, he was a late-bloomer for St. Thomas Aquinas, but when he came on he finished the season as one of the team's best despite being part of a group of seniors that included players who committed to Miami, Ohio State, Illinois, FAU, and Kent State, and that was just the running backs and receivers. Quarterback Jake Allen is now enrolled at Florida, another running back landed with Iowa, and others landed with Notre Dame, Pitt, Michigan State, Mississippi State, and...oh yeah, Tennessee, in the form of Kivon Bennett. Bottom line, this is a very good team and Palmer still managed to shine in the second half of their season. Palmer has looked smooth, fluid, and mature at receiver, and on top of all that he's really only played one full season of American football as he is originally from Canada.
LaTrell Bumphus - This tight end came in well ahead of schedule, and he has looked very much like a freshman that can play right away. So much so, in fact, that he may be pushing Jakob Johnson, who is now fighting for the #2 job after essentially walking away as the clear second tight end after spring practice. Bumphus is big, athletic, and a willing blocker. He brings the tenacity of a high level defensive lineman to the tight end position, which makes sense considering he was recruited by many schools to play defensive end.
Marcus Tatum - Brett Kendrick may be the likely right tackle, but he's also had some trouble in the past staying healthy. Logic would say that Tatum won't just play this season, but he'll likely start at some point. He did last year too at maybe 265. Now he's close to twenty pounds heavier while remaining the athletic specimen he was coming out of high school. If Tatum can get back to where he was before missing a few practices, he might even be able to push Kendrick for the job. Probable backups like Tatum, Boulware, and Thomas give the staff a level of security they probably wouldn't have had a year ago.
Ryan Johnson - He was one of the higher rated commitments in the 2016 class, a 6-6, 280 pound, 4-star offensive lineman who was the top signee on the OL. Even so, he ultimately redshirted as a true freshman as he worked to convert into an interior lineman. Now, he's in position to become a potential key reserve at one of the guard spots while also getting work at the center position. Johnson is up over 300 pounds and is displaying the aggression and toughness that made him such a coveted recruit.
Matthew Butler - I feel like I've definitely mentioned him before, but this young man has looked good being lined up at all four spots on the defensive line. When he arrived on campus, he declared to the whole team that he could play anywhere on the defensive line, then he stepped on the field and proved it was more than just talk. He looks every bit of his 6-4, 274 pounds, and he has a high motor and good athleticism. He still needs to add to his arsenal of pass rush moves, but whether he's at end or at tackle, he can torment quarterbacks. If you're worried about him defending the run, he also had 100 tackles for loss in three seasons in high school. He looks like he was designed in a video game, and if reports from camp are any indication he can play like it too.
Deandre Johnson - Unheralded, oft-forgotten, and yet he is very likely to be in the two deep week one. Johnson arrived as an early enrollee at 6-4, 235 who wasn't exactly the top name on anybody's list of freshmen to watch, yet he was the second player to lose his stripe this spring after 5-star Trey Smith. He's close to 260 now and looks every bit the part of a college defensive end. He's motivated, talented, and has picked up on everything very quickly, which will likely mean he finds himself thrust into the two deep with two former 5-stars in Jonathan Kongbo and Kyle Phillips as well as 4-star Darrell Taylor.
Elliott Berry - Believe it or not, the forgotten Berry brother has been quietly having an excellent camp. It's hard to say exactly how he'll be used, but my suspicion is he might get looks as a nickel linebacker at his new, svelte 5-11, 206. He had a strong season last year after being forced into action due to injury, starting 4 games and playing in all 13 while racking up 34 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and a pass defended after playing almost exclusively on special teams before that. He won't necessarily supplant Quart'e Sapp or Cortez McDowell, but he could have special packages designed to get him on the field to take advantage of his skill set.
Will Ignont - I don't know exactly what role Ignont will play this season yet, but I do know that he will play. In fact, his rapid progression throughout fall camp is actually opening up a possibility that the staff has tossed around: Darrin Kirkland and Daniel Bituli on the field at the same time. Kirkland and Bituli are two of the bigger and more physical linebackers on the roster along with Austin Smith, all of whom also have the athleticism to hold their own in coverage.
Kivon Bennett - Tennessee may have struck gold with this defensive line class, and the truth is none of the guys I've mentioned were their highest rated signee on the DL. Bennett, however, does come with a pedigree, and quite a good one at that. His father, Cornelius Bennett, was a big time player at Alabama and later in the NFL, and the younger Bennett will look to carve out his own legacy. He's not off to a bad start at all either, occasionally flashing on the field despite being a bit undersized at defensive tackle at 6-1, 275. He may not be the most physically imposing player, but he certainly is making a move on finding a spot in the rotation.
Theo Jackson - While not the biggest name in the class among the defensive backs, Jackson might now be positioning himself to make the biggest early impact. He has plenty of length at 6-2, and despite being on the skinny side at 178 he was a do-everything athlete in high school. He excelled on defense, picking off eight passes in two seasons while playing quarterback, receiver, and whatever else Overton High needed him to do. Jackson has picked up right where he left off in high school and he is breaking through at a spot where he isn't needed, but is very much welcomed.
Justin Martin - Emmanuel Moseley isn't yet 100%, Shaq Wiggins is still trying to figure out exactly how the coaches want him to do things in Knoxville, and the freshmen are, well, freshmen, but the player who has become the one constant right now at corner is Martin. He's always had all the physical tools you could want, but now he's figuring out the technique required to excel at corner in the SEC. Better late than never as he brings safety size, wideout speed, and the attitude you want to the corner spot. If he brings the technique to match, he could be an all-conference performer.
Tim Jordan - Chandler may have taken over the #2 spot behind starting running back John Kelly, but the #3 spot is up for grabs...or is it? Carlin Fils-aime is still fighting to be the #3 with Jordan, who is bigger, stronger, and might just be faster too. What he's not is as experienced as Fils-aime, but running back is usually a pretty quick transition from high school to college. Usually the physical demands of college football is what gets to a kid the most, but that doesn't seem likely to be an issue for Jordan, who looks like a senior physically. We'll see who really does spell Kelly and Chandler when the season kicks off, but right now I'm leaning toward Jordan.
Evan Berry - It's odd to say that a former All-American is a player to watch, but he may very well be. The emergence of Jackson at safety may be freeing up Evan Berry to become even more of a weapon than he already was. There's a chance that he will get looks on offense as the team tries to find the best ways to make use of the 5-11, 205 pound speedster. Offense, defense, and returns. Hmm...sounds like a nice way for a senior to build up a resume before he auditions for the NFL.
Marquez Callaway - I cannot emphasize this enough: Callaway looks like the best candidate to serve as Jauan Jenning's #2 this season. Josh Malone wouldn't have had the season he had last year without Jennings garnering attention, and Callaway has to be able to provide that for Jennings this season. I personally think he will. Callaway is an athletic specimen with the frame you love to see in a wide receiver. He has length, speed, and leaping ability, and his hands have progressed a fair bit from last season. He's still not a finished product, but he's probably not far off from where Jennings was last season. Callaway has guys pushing him to be better, and he seems to be answering the call while coming out of his shell more and more. He has star potential.
Ty Chandler - This seems obvious, but he really does bring an explosive element that the roster needed in order to help replace the loss of Alvin Kamara to the NFL. He's not the most impressive looking player physically right now, but despite looking a bit like a large slot receiver or small wideout, he runs out of the backfield like the type of speed back every team would love to have. He's not small, but he's not nearly as big as he'll become, and he doesn't look like he'll lose any of his speed and quickness as he grows and develops. Where most running backs are either quick or fast, Chandler is both.
Josh Palmer - If there's a threat to Callaway's chances of starting, it might very well come in the form of this true freshman. He looks much further along both physically and technique-wise than anyone, the coaches included, could have hoped for. Palmer was a consensus 3-star, not the biggest or fastest of the receivers in the class, but he does seem to be the one making the most noise now. Of course, he was a late-bloomer for St. Thomas Aquinas, but when he came on he finished the season as one of the team's best despite being part of a group of seniors that included players who committed to Miami, Ohio State, Illinois, FAU, and Kent State, and that was just the running backs and receivers. Quarterback Jake Allen is now enrolled at Florida, another running back landed with Iowa, and others landed with Notre Dame, Pitt, Michigan State, Mississippi State, and...oh yeah, Tennessee, in the form of Kivon Bennett. Bottom line, this is a very good team and Palmer still managed to shine in the second half of their season. Palmer has looked smooth, fluid, and mature at receiver, and on top of all that he's really only played one full season of American football as he is originally from Canada.
LaTrell Bumphus - This tight end came in well ahead of schedule, and he has looked very much like a freshman that can play right away. So much so, in fact, that he may be pushing Jakob Johnson, who is now fighting for the #2 job after essentially walking away as the clear second tight end after spring practice. Bumphus is big, athletic, and a willing blocker. He brings the tenacity of a high level defensive lineman to the tight end position, which makes sense considering he was recruited by many schools to play defensive end.
Marcus Tatum - Brett Kendrick may be the likely right tackle, but he's also had some trouble in the past staying healthy. Logic would say that Tatum won't just play this season, but he'll likely start at some point. He did last year too at maybe 265. Now he's close to twenty pounds heavier while remaining the athletic specimen he was coming out of high school. If Tatum can get back to where he was before missing a few practices, he might even be able to push Kendrick for the job. Probable backups like Tatum, Boulware, and Thomas give the staff a level of security they probably wouldn't have had a year ago.
Ryan Johnson - He was one of the higher rated commitments in the 2016 class, a 6-6, 280 pound, 4-star offensive lineman who was the top signee on the OL. Even so, he ultimately redshirted as a true freshman as he worked to convert into an interior lineman. Now, he's in position to become a potential key reserve at one of the guard spots while also getting work at the center position. Johnson is up over 300 pounds and is displaying the aggression and toughness that made him such a coveted recruit.
Matthew Butler - I feel like I've definitely mentioned him before, but this young man has looked good being lined up at all four spots on the defensive line. When he arrived on campus, he declared to the whole team that he could play anywhere on the defensive line, then he stepped on the field and proved it was more than just talk. He looks every bit of his 6-4, 274 pounds, and he has a high motor and good athleticism. He still needs to add to his arsenal of pass rush moves, but whether he's at end or at tackle, he can torment quarterbacks. If you're worried about him defending the run, he also had 100 tackles for loss in three seasons in high school. He looks like he was designed in a video game, and if reports from camp are any indication he can play like it too.
Deandre Johnson - Unheralded, oft-forgotten, and yet he is very likely to be in the two deep week one. Johnson arrived as an early enrollee at 6-4, 235 who wasn't exactly the top name on anybody's list of freshmen to watch, yet he was the second player to lose his stripe this spring after 5-star Trey Smith. He's close to 260 now and looks every bit the part of a college defensive end. He's motivated, talented, and has picked up on everything very quickly, which will likely mean he finds himself thrust into the two deep with two former 5-stars in Jonathan Kongbo and Kyle Phillips as well as 4-star Darrell Taylor.
Elliott Berry - Believe it or not, the forgotten Berry brother has been quietly having an excellent camp. It's hard to say exactly how he'll be used, but my suspicion is he might get looks as a nickel linebacker at his new, svelte 5-11, 206. He had a strong season last year after being forced into action due to injury, starting 4 games and playing in all 13 while racking up 34 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and a pass defended after playing almost exclusively on special teams before that. He won't necessarily supplant Quart'e Sapp or Cortez McDowell, but he could have special packages designed to get him on the field to take advantage of his skill set.
Will Ignont - I don't know exactly what role Ignont will play this season yet, but I do know that he will play. In fact, his rapid progression throughout fall camp is actually opening up a possibility that the staff has tossed around: Darrin Kirkland and Daniel Bituli on the field at the same time. Kirkland and Bituli are two of the bigger and more physical linebackers on the roster along with Austin Smith, all of whom also have the athleticism to hold their own in coverage.
Kivon Bennett - Tennessee may have struck gold with this defensive line class, and the truth is none of the guys I've mentioned were their highest rated signee on the DL. Bennett, however, does come with a pedigree, and quite a good one at that. His father, Cornelius Bennett, was a big time player at Alabama and later in the NFL, and the younger Bennett will look to carve out his own legacy. He's not off to a bad start at all either, occasionally flashing on the field despite being a bit undersized at defensive tackle at 6-1, 275. He may not be the most physically imposing player, but he certainly is making a move on finding a spot in the rotation.
Theo Jackson - While not the biggest name in the class among the defensive backs, Jackson might now be positioning himself to make the biggest early impact. He has plenty of length at 6-2, and despite being on the skinny side at 178 he was a do-everything athlete in high school. He excelled on defense, picking off eight passes in two seasons while playing quarterback, receiver, and whatever else Overton High needed him to do. Jackson has picked up right where he left off in high school and he is breaking through at a spot where he isn't needed, but is very much welcomed.
Justin Martin - Emmanuel Moseley isn't yet 100%, Shaq Wiggins is still trying to figure out exactly how the coaches want him to do things in Knoxville, and the freshmen are, well, freshmen, but the player who has become the one constant right now at corner is Martin. He's always had all the physical tools you could want, but now he's figuring out the technique required to excel at corner in the SEC. Better late than never as he brings safety size, wideout speed, and the attitude you want to the corner spot. If he brings the technique to match, he could be an all-conference performer.
Tim Jordan - Chandler may have taken over the #2 spot behind starting running back John Kelly, but the #3 spot is up for grabs...or is it? Carlin Fils-aime is still fighting to be the #3 with Jordan, who is bigger, stronger, and might just be faster too. What he's not is as experienced as Fils-aime, but running back is usually a pretty quick transition from high school to college. Usually the physical demands of college football is what gets to a kid the most, but that doesn't seem likely to be an issue for Jordan, who looks like a senior physically. We'll see who really does spell Kelly and Chandler when the season kicks off, but right now I'm leaning toward Jordan.
Evan Berry - It's odd to say that a former All-American is a player to watch, but he may very well be. The emergence of Jackson at safety may be freeing up Evan Berry to become even more of a weapon than he already was. There's a chance that he will get looks on offense as the team tries to find the best ways to make use of the 5-11, 205 pound speedster. Offense, defense, and returns. Hmm...sounds like a nice way for a senior to build up a resume before he auditions for the NFL.
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