Sunday, January 12, 2020

Tennessee's Expected Post-Early Signing Roster

QUARTERBACK

Scholarship
Jarrett Guarantano - 6-4, 213, RSR
JT Shrout - 6-3, 213, RSO
Brian Maurer - 6-3, 193, SO
Harrison Bailey - 6-5, 211, FR
Jimmy Holiday - 6-0, 190, FR

Walk-on
Kasim Hill - 6-2, 234, RJR
Michael Bittner - 6-2, 208, RFR
Steven Orr - 6-2, 194, RFR
Spencer Smith - 6-1, 199, RFR

It's safe to say that the quarterback position is a deeper position than it was last year. Going into next season, there's at least a solid case that Jarrett Guarantano will be the second-best quarterback in the SEC East behind Florida's Kyle Trask. Shrout and Maurer both got meaningful playing time and even starts under their belt in 2019, so the Vols will have one of the most experienced quarterback rooms in the SEC. Harrison Bailey is a highly regarded quarterback recruit who helped to lead the resurrection of the Marrieta football program as a Georgia state power. Jimmy Holiday is a ridiculously fast athlete with a capable arm and his passes don't tend to hang in the air even if they aren't necessarily the prettiest balls you'll ever see. Kasim Hill brings Power 5 starting experience to the walk-on group, but he hasn't shown a lot of signs so far that he's likely to be more than a scout team quarterback.

RUNNING BACK

Scholarship
Carlin Fils-aime - 5-11,180, RSR
Ty Chandler - 5-11, 201, SR
Tim Jordan - 5-11, 203, SR
Eric Gray - 5-10, 195, SO
Tee Hodge - 6-1, 220, FR
Jabari Small - 6-0, 195, FR
Len'Neth Whitehead - 6-2, 230, FR

Walk-on
James Christian - 5-8, 204, RSR
Chip Omer - 6-0, 204, RSR
Cameron Miller - 5-10, 206, RSO
Fred Orr - 5-11, 200, RFR
Camryn Beckwith - 5-9, 188, FR

Tennessee has been struggling to build quality depth at running back for a while now, especially when it comes to finding a bigger back or two. Well, mission accomplished with Hodge and Whitehead. Jabari Small is a somewhat similar player to Eric Gray, who exploded late in 2019 for the Vols. Chandler's big-play ability will always keep him getting carries, but he's far from a grinding back. Tim Jordan is willing to fight for tough yards, but he lacks explosiveness. Fils-aime has major speed and is a decisive one-cut runner, but his lack of weight has always limited his touches. Orr, Omer, and Miller didn't play much last year, but the trio averaged 6.2 yards per carry in their limited opportunities.

WIDE RECEIVER

Scholarship
Brandon Johnson - 6-2, 195, RSR
Velus Jones Jr. - 6-0, 190, RSR
Josh Palmer - 6-2, 195, SR
Deangelo Gibbs - 6-1, 200, RJR
Cedric Tillman - 6-3, 211, RSO
Ramel Keyton - 6-2, 189, SO
Isaiah Montgomery - 6-0, 207, RFR
Jimmy Calloway - 6-0, 207, FR
Jalin Hyatt - 6-0, 164, FR

Walk-on
Tanner Dobrucky - 5-9, 189, RJR
Grant Frerking - 6-5, 207, RJR
Richard Mize Jr. - 5-10, 176, RJR
Braden Collins - 6-2, 195, RSO
Miles Jones Jr. - 5-8, 175, RSO
JT Siekerman - 5-10, 179, RSO

The Vols have an interesting mix of experience and newfound talent in this group for the coming season. Their trio of seniors have combined career totals of 162 receptions for 2,124 and 5 touchdowns. The rest has combined for a total of 9 receptions for 161 yards and a touchdown, all of that coming from Tillman and Keyton. There is good news, however. Gibbs has been touted as arguably the best athlete among the receivers in practices and it has been suggested that he may have star potential at the position. Calloway and Hyatt have speed to spare, especially Hyatt, who has been timed electronically at a 4.31 40-yard dash. Calloway is plenty fast but he's got some wiggle in his play. The walk-ons haven't played too much, and even those who have played have yet to record a reception.

TIGHT END

Scholarship
Austin Pope - 6-4, 235, RSR
Princeton Fant - 6-2, 232, RJR
Jacob Warren - 6-6, 241, RSO
Sean Brown - 6-5, 241, RFR
Jackson Lowe - 6-4, 249, RFR

Walk-on
Hunter Salmon - 6-5, 239, RFR

So far, it's all subtraction and no addition to this position group. The Vols could probably land some help in the transfer portal, but realistically their forays into the portal for wide receiver and offensive line help has pretty much closed that door unless there's room left in the class that we don't know about. The good news is that Austin Pope is an experienced option at tight end, even if he's not necessarily a guy whose receiving numbers jump out at you. He's probably the best blocker outside of the offensive line, so he'll be tough to knock out of the starting job. Fant and Warren are still developing as blockers, but they are pretty good receiving options. The Vols haven't gotten much of a look at Brown or Lowe outside of practice, but there's plenty of reason to believe both could make major strides this offseason.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Scholarship
Brandon Kennedy - 6-3, 301, GR
Jahmir Johnson - 6-5, 290, RSR
Riley Locklear - 6-4, 286, SR
Trey Smith - 6-6, 325, SR
K'Rojhn Calbert - 6-5, 330, RJR
Jerome Carvin - 6-5, 313, JR
Cade Mays - 6-6, 318, JR
Ollie Lane - 6-4, 308, RSO
Wanya Morris - 6-4, 313, SO
Darnell Wright - 6-6, 330, SO
Chris Akporoghene - 6-3, 296, RFR
Jackson Lampley - 6-4, 318, RFR
Cooper Mays - 6-3, 283, FR
James Robinson - 6-4, 343, FR
Javontez Spraggins - 6-3, 352, FR

Walk-on
Dawson Stephens - 6-1, 306, RSR
Jarious Abercrombie - 6-4, 310, RSO
Airin Spell - 6-1, 293, RSO
Parker Ball - 6-4, 284, RFR
Dayne Davis - 6-7, 330, RFR
James Parsons - 6-5, 300, RFR

Good news: if the Vols are able to get Cade Mays eligible, they will have one of the most talented offensive lines in the SEC, not to mention fairly experienced. That group would be checking in at an average of 6-5, 317 pounds of former 4 and 5-star talents. The bad news is that a couple of very experienced offensive linemen have already transferred out of the program in Ryan Johnson and Marcus Tatum, and that's left things relatively thin for tackle depth. Calbert and Johnson can play guard or tackle, and Carvin can play guard or center, so there is some versatility with some of the more experienced interior linemen. Morris and Wright should prove all but impossible to unseat by the end of the offseason.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Scholarship
Ja'Quain Blakely - 6-2, 284, RSR
Emmit Gooden - 6-3, 290, RSR
LaTrell Bumphus - 6-3, 273, SR
Matthew Butler - 6-4, 285, SR
Darel Middleton - 6-7, 311, SR
Aubrey Solomon - 6-5, 299, SR
Savion Williams - 6-4, 304, SR
John Mincey - 6-3, 271, JR
Greg Emerson - 6-3, 309, RSO
Kurott Garland - 6-3, 304, RSO
Kingston Harris - 6-3, 306, RSO
Elijah Simmons - 6-2, 340, RFR
Dominic Bailey - 6-3, 293, FR
RJ Perry - 6-6, 299, FR
Omari Thomas - 6-4, 306, FR

Walk-on
Gatkek Kueth - 6-2, 253, RJR
Isaac Green - 6-0, 260, RFR

Going into last season, there was only one guy on the roster with significant experience. Going into next season, just during their time at Tennessee the defensive line will carry into next season a combined 252 tackles, 31.5 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, 5 passes defended, 2 fumble recoveries, a forced fumble, and a blocked kick. Then, just for good measure, a pair of 4-star defensive linemen join the mix along with the freakishly sized Perry. Simmons has the potential to be a massive run-stuffing nose guard coming off his redshirt season, but it's probably fair to suggest that he's going to have a battle on his hands to break into the rotation. That's true of the freshmen as well, but knowing this staff, the best players will play and there are plenty of options.

LINEBACKER

Scholarship
Jordan Allen - 6-4, 238, RSR
Deandre Johnson - 6-3, 246, SR
Kivon Bennett - 6-2, 248, RJR
Solon Page III - 6-2, 218, RJR
JJ Peterson - 6-2, 233, RSO
Quavaris Crouch - 6-1, 246, SO
Roman Harrison - 6-2, 234, SO
Henry To'o To'o - 6-2, 232, SO
Tyler Baron - 6-5, 256, FR
Bryson Eason - 6-2, 270, FR
Martavius French - 6-2, 227, FR
Morven Joseph - 6-2, 220, FR
Tamarion McDonald - 6-2, 199, FR

Walk-on
Bryan Aiken - 6-4, 260, RFR
Matt Ballard - 6-0, 229, RSR
Deonte Beauchamp - 6-1, 241, RFR
Nyles Gaddy - 6-4, 231, RSO
Nick Humphrey - 6-1, 213, RJR
Ethan Rinke - 6-3, 239, RFR
West Shuler - 6-1, 227, RFR

The good news is the Vols only lost two linebackers. The bad news is those two linebackers were Daniel Bituli and Darrell Taylor, who had a combined 384 tackles, 41 tackles for loss, 23.5 sacks, 1 interception, 13 passes defended, 8 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, and a blocked kick. As good as some of the talent returning is, to suggest the Vols will be able to easily replace these two is ludicrous. In fact, a combination of players will likely have to get that job done. I also think running a lot more base nickel defense is possible given that there are only 13 linebackers on the roster but a plethora of defensive linemen. To'o To'o is the top dog in this group, but Bennett may well be the next big star given his strong finish to the season. One or more of the incoming freshmen may be called upon to be a major contributor or even to start.

DEFENSIVE BACK

Scholarship
Baylen Buchanan - 5-11, 196, RSR
Kenneth George Jr. - 5-11, 201, RSR
Theo Jackson - 6-2, 190, SR
Shawn Shamburger - 5-11, 187, SR
Cheyenne Labruzza - 5-11, 185, RJR
Trevon Flowers - 5-11, 193, JR
Alontae Taylor - 6-0, 193, JR
Bryce Thompson - 5-11, 181, JR
Brandon Davis - 5-10, 160, RSO
Aaron Beasley - 6-1, 212, SO
Warren Burrell - 6-0, 176, SO
Jaylen McCollough - 6-0, 204, SO
Kenney Solomon - 6-0, 168, SO
Tyus Fields - 5-10, 186, RFR
Kwauze Garland - 6-1, 190, RFR
Keshawn Lawrence - 6-2, 202, FR
Doneiko Slaughter - 6-0, 185, FR

Walk-on
Garrett Johnson - 5-11, 179, RJR
Jake Powers - 6-0, 198, RJR
Jay Shoop - 6-1, 194, RJR
Romello Edwards - 6-0, 187, RSO
Tyrik Stewart - 6-0, 190, RFR

The departure of Nigel Warrior is a big one, but the Vols have plenty of experience in the secondary. As a group, they return 22.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks, 44 passes defended, 12 interceptions, 5 forced fumble, and a fumble recovery, but they also add a couple of very nice talents in Lawrence and Slaughter. Lawrence is versatile enough to play corner, safety, or even receiver, not to mention his talents as a punt returner. Slaughter is a brutal tackler who can play safety or nickel. The good news is really neither of them should have to play right away, so if either one plays next season, it means they're simply one of the best available. Taylor and Thompson are budding stars at corner, and McCollough may be the next great Tennessee safety if he continues to develop like he did last year over the course of the season.

SPECIALIST

Scholarship
Brent Cimaglia - 6-0, 210, SR
Paxton Brooks - 6-6, 194, JR
Will Albright - 6-1, 213, FR

Walk-on
Luke Lynn - 5-9, 160, RFR
Matthew Salansky - 5-11, 225, RFR
Marshall Ware - 5-10, 175, RFR
Toby Wilson - 5-10, 174, RSO
Jake Yelich - 6-2, 233, RSR

Joe Doyle's transfer leaves a bit of work to do sorting out certain things, not to mention the graduation of Riley Lovingood. Finding a new long snapper and holder will be the main priority because the punter and placekicker are plenty settled. Brooks has no real competition at the moment for the punting duties, and Cimaglia is one of the better placekickers in the country. Albright will get a fair shake at winning the snapping duties, but don't be surprised if Yelich's experience wins out and lands him the gig.

Something to keep in mind is that this list of players includes 89 scholarship players, 4 over the roster limit. Tennessee will need more transfers to get under that limit, and they'll need six in order to take a full 25 initial qualifiers this cycle. One thing Tennessee has always been able to manage is clearing out space on the roster for bigger and better things, and it's unlikely they'll suddenly forget how to clear room in the class. I simply say this to let everyone know this roster is far from final, but it's how the roster looks based on what we know right now.

Saturday, January 11, 2020

Jarrett Guarantano: Baller or Bust?

Jarrett Guarantano is the most polarizing player at the University of Tennessee in many years. The last player I can think of who was as frustrating to the Vol faithful was probably Arian Foster, who was a very good player with very bad timing on his handful of lost fumbles. Jarrett Guaratano is similar in the sense that he's not a bad player; he simply has terrible timing on when he makes his mistakes. I suppose said mistakes are the right place to start since they tend to be the focus of most Volunteer fans.

In his 34 career games, he has thrown 13 interceptions and fumbled 11 times, losing four of those fumbles. That's 17 turnovers in 797 plays either registered as a rushing or passing attempt. That's actually a better play per turnover ratio than Josh Dobbs (46.9 per turnover for Guarantano, 39.9 per turnover for Dobbs). Dobbs, as one of the more successful recent Tennessee quarterbacks, is the best recent comparison despite being very different players. Both had two of their turnovers returned for touchdowns, an interception and fumble each. Guarantano has a slightly better completion percentage through his first three seasons and Dobbs's completion percentage is only 0.6% better for their respective careers so far. Guarantano has had a much better career yard per attempt average, especially over the first three seasons, and the adjusted yards per attempt favors Guarantano by more than a yard per pass. Guarantano also has a better career quarterback rating. By most metrics, Jarrett Guarantano has been a better passer than Josh Dobbs.

If that's the case, why is Joshua Dobbs viewed as arguably the best quarterback at Tennessee since Casey Clausen? Well, Dobbs had an ability to make plays with his legs when everything broke down, something Guarantano simply can't do with anything resembling consistency. In fact, it could safely be called a rarity when Guarantano rescues a play with his legs. Even with a spectacular passing season next year, Guarantano will simply never come close to the total offense numbers that Dobbs was able to produce, and Dobbs's 85 total touchdowns is also a number that Guarantano will just not reach.

That said, Guarantano will likely not reach the turnover numbers that Dobbs put up either. He may not run the same number of plays, but his plays per turnover numbers would require a disastrous season to truly tank to that point. Guarantano has improved his touchdown and yardage numbers each season, and in all likelihood that will continue as long as he continues to be the starter. Without the mobility of Dobbs, Guarantano's lack of a strong offensive line has proven a liability at times and limited his ability to make plays, especially deep, and the lack of a consistent running game has hindered him as well. Dobbs, on the other hand, played with such running backs as Jalen Hurd, Alvin Kamara, and John Kelly Jr., and those backs helped keep defenses more honest than they've typically been forced to play against Tennessee the last three seasons.

None of this is to suggest one quarterback is better than the other. When comparing the play of the two, it's comparing apples and oranges. Dobbs had true dual-threat abilities, while Guarantano is a pocket passer who won't make too many plays with his legs. Dobbs was a vocal leader in ways that Guarantano simply won't ever duplicate as a quieter, more downplayed player. Dobbs could make a big play out of a disastrous meltdown, while Guarantano is at the mercy of his blocking and the receivers getting open.

So, to the original premise of the article: is Jarrett Gurantano a bust? The short answer is no, but if you took the way recruiting services evaluated him to heart, he likely looks like one. A disservice was done to Guarantano before he ever committed to Tennessee when recruiting services took a fast 40-yard dash time and decided that a guy who averaged 2.1 yards per carry in high school was a dual-threat quarterback. He never actually fit that mold, and yet somehow some services even had him as the top dual-threat signal-caller in the country. Obviously, he's not that by any means. He is, however, an efficient passer. The six quarterbacks ranked higher than him in the 247Sports Composite have all transferred thus far in their careers. In fact, of the top 15 composite quarterbacks, only three haven't transferred: Guarantano, Dwayne Haskins, and Jawon Pass. Guarantano, while far from perfect, compares relatively well to most of that top 15 with the exception of Haskins and Jalen Hurts. In fact, ranking the top 20 quarterbacks from the 2016 class, he'd probably be top five or just outside it, behind Haskins, Hurts, Jacob Eason, Shea Patterson, and jockeying for position with guys like KJ Costello and Jake Bentley.

Is he a baller? That's probably a bit too generous. He's a solid starting quarterback who makes more good plays than bad but will drive you mad with the timing of his bad plays and just how bad they often go. He seldom makes big, game-changing plays, instead often relying on big, skilled wide receivers to win on 50-50 balls or making chain-moving plays on short to intermediate passes. I don't necessarily doubt his ability to make big plays, but timing throws are simply something that Guarantano seems to be allergic to, at least up to this point in his career. Whether it's a lack of trust in the receivers being there or being open, he tries to wait for the receivers to get open rather than trusting that they'll get there, allowing defenders to recover and resulting in sure-fire completions turning into 50-50 balls. He also struggles at times with feel in the pocket, expecting pressure that doesn't exist, likely a function this past season of not trusting his blocking despite it improving over the prior two seasons. It was painfully obvious at times that Guarantano wasn't able to run quickly through his reads, struggled to think on his feet, especially on RPOs, and lacked confidence in his blocking and receivers. Most of these things improved as the season progressed, although not all and inconsistency continued to rear its ugly head.

That said, he's making his way up the top ten lists for quarterback accomplishments. He's currently 8th in career passing yards and has the fourth-best single-game passing performance in program history with his outing against Missouri this season. Even just a mediocre passing season would allow Guarantano to pass Bray for 4th in career passing yardage as 2,383 yards gives him the spot. He has tied for 9th in career passing touchdowns with Tee Martin and Bobby Scott, and he is just five touchdowns away from taking lone possession of 6th place and 21 touchdowns from overtaking Joshua Dobbs for 5th. His career passing attempts and completions are also tied for 8th in program history, and he needs just 281 passing attempts to overtake Tyler Bray for fifth and just 223 completions to pass Dobbs for 4th.

None of what I just said can or should serve as justification for the level of vitriol this young man has endured from fans. It is simply ludicrous to think that a quarterback with his numbers and his body of work would be forced to endure harassment on the scale that he has, and yet, here we are. Have we learned nothing from the treatment of Jonathan Crompton? The answer to that appears to be not really. With the emergence of Instagram and Twitter, it's become significantly easier to type something out, hit send, and then move on without doing any thinking. Vol fans have become notorious for their Twitter presence, which is enjoyable when focused outside the program but downright malicious when directed within. Jarrett Guarantano's play is warranting of criticism at times, but there's a big difference between criticism and harassment, and too often that line gets crossed. Additionally, there is no need for any fan to share their critiques directly with a player online. If your name isn't Peyton Manning, your criticism isn't helpful to him so let the coaches handle it.

Jarrett Guarantano will be remembered as the quarterback who bridged the Butch Jones era in Knoxville and the Jeremy Pruitt era. As such, he won't have quarterbacked under ideal circumstances for the majority of his time with the Vols. Constant turnover among the coordinators and position coaches has hampered his development, and being battered by defenses in his first two seasons hurt his confidence and trust in his blockers. Maybe he settles in as a senior and becomes the quarterback he's shown flashes of being. If not, he will still have taken the shots, both on and off the field, in order to help the program to a brighter future.

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

2020 Signing Class Breakdown

When you finish with a top ten class on 247Sports, Rivals, and in the Composite, you know it's a strong haul. Tennessee did just that. But the walk-ons and transfers are how you round out a roster, and that's exactly what I want to cover in full. This list includes all known transfers, walk-ons, and signees at this point.

Now, when I discuss the signees, I need to make a point: I draw comparisons between the signees and current or former college or NFL players. That is me stating the type of player these signees might develop into. I'm not saying they are at that level or will reach that level. There are too many factors to definitively say anything like that. It is just a projection of their potential if they were to max it out.

QUARTERBACKS

Harrison Bailey, 6-5, 211
Ranking: Rivals 5-star, ESPN/247Sports/Composite 4-star
NFL comparison: Nick Foles
Vol fans are seemingly determined to put Bailey on the hype version of an All-American list. While it's certainly true that Bailey had a great senior campaign, it takes a bit of a leap to ignore the fact that Tennessee is presently set to return three quarterbacks with starts under their belt and assume a true freshman is walking on campus as the starter. However, there are some very promising facts associated with Bailey. He is one of just five quarterbacks in Georgia high school history to pass for over 10,000 career yards. Among the other four are such names as Jake Fromm, Deshaun Watson, and Trevor Lawrence, so he's in good company. Had his performance against Eastern Catholic High from Washington in Las Vegas counted toward his season totals, he would have broken 12,000 yards as a high school quarterback. His senior campaign was easily his best, and he completed nearly 70% of his passes as he led Marietta High to their first state championship in 52 years. Bailey worked to drop some weight before his senior season as mobility within the pocket had been a criticism. He does appear to move better within the pocket, although he's by no means a mobile quarterback. Bailey has a strong arm and tends to place the ball well, but he's inclined to take chances with tight windows. His release is quick, but the way the ball can carry and hang in the air runs the risk of future interceptions as he jumps to the college game. The best news here is as an early enrollee he'll be able to get a leg up on making adjustments in his technique and refining his skill set.

Jimmy Holiday, 6-0, 190
Ranking: ESPN/Rivals/247Sports/Composite 3-star
NFL comparison: Denard Robinson
Holiday was a late addition, made on the first day of early signing, but the Vols had offered him months before and hosted him in October. Holiday was a long-time TCU commit as they were one of the first teams willing to give him a crack at quarterback, but as his senior season progressed and the Vols missed on other potential quarterback targets they returned to Holiday, who was improving his accuracy and displaying ridiculous running ability out of the backfield. Holiday is never going to be a lights out passer, but he is a dynamic playmaker capable of making plays with his arm and legs and given more passing opportunities he showed as a junior that he could have a fair bit of success as a passer, throwing for 1,518 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in his 188 attempts, all of which were career highs. Where Holiday truly shined was on the run, where he lit up the scoreboards as a senior to the tune of 21 rushing touchdowns on his 1,401 rushing yards. For his high school career, Holiday had 3,507 passing yards with 37 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while running for 3,568 yards and 51 touchdowns in three seasons. Tennessee likely doesn't envision using Holiday as an every-down quarterback but rather see him as an offensive weapon, someone who can be lined up at quarterback, receiver, or even running back in order to utilize his unique skill set alongside a more prototypical quarterback, and Holiday has all the tools to be a nightmare for defenses in that capacity.

RUNNING BACKS

Tee Hodge, 6-1, 220
Ranking: ESPN/Rivals/247Sports/Composite 3-star
NFL comparison: Larry Johnson
When healthy, Tee Hodge has shown an ability to break tackles, break loose for big plays, and a nose for the end zone (a touchdown for every 8.7 carries). Unfortunately, staying healthy hasn't been easy for Hodge, going down early in Maryville's postseason run in 2018 and missing several games in 2019. From 2017-19, Hodge accumulated 2,534 yards and 45 touchdowns on 392 carries despite his injury troubles, averaging 6.5 yards per carry along the way. He's also shown some ability as a receiver, converting 17 receptions into 175 yards and a touchdown as a junior. He displays good balance and vision, making him both difficult to bring down and hard to get a clean hit on at the best of times. He can get impatient waiting on his blocks to develop, slowing him down and opening him up to lost yardage or very short gains. A lack of top-end speed will limit his big-play ability somewhat, so if you are expecting his "big plays" to be 40+ yard runs, they likely won't be often. However, he hit the hole decisively and can get 20 yards on you in a hurry, and defensive backs will struggle to take down the big, well-balanced back. Whether or not he has feature back potential is hard to say largely because the current trend in Knoxville is running back by committee, and offensive coordinator Jim Chaney isn't known for overworking his backs. More than likely, he will end up being a part of the running back rotation and a goal-line specialist in Knoxville, a role he appears well-suited to fill.

Jabari Small, 6-0, 195
Ranking: ESPN/Rivals/247Sports/Composite 3-star
NFL Comparison: Josh Jacobs
I can already hear some of you getting started off the NFL comparison, but hear me out before you get going. First, I almost went with Rex Burkhead here, but Burkhead is a poor comparison in categories like speed and athleticism, while Jacobs is a generally better comparison. There's also what I believe to be a very pertinent parallel between the two. Both were highly productive high school players who had recruitments that mostly saw them drawing regional interest rather than national attention. They are both backs with plenty of growth potential in their frames and are dynamic all-purpose backs who can turn any touch into a touchdown. In fact, that's what turned Josh Jacobs from a committee running back into a first-round pick: he maximized every opportunity given to him. It would be hard to argue that Small didn't do that very thing in high school, racking up 4,554 yards and 52 touchdowns on 459 touches. He averaged 8 yards per carry, 12.9 yards per reception, 21.8 yards per interception return, 23.9 yards per kickoff return, and 26.6 yards per punt return over that period. Unfortunately, that same versatility is one of the reasons the staff had Small announced as an athlete as he can help the team out as a running back, receiver, returner, or even as a corner. The guess here is that he ends up as a running back and occasional slot receiver as well as finding a home on special teams as a returner, but he could end up at corner if the staff is unable to make a signing there before the close of national signing day.

Len'Neth Whitehead, 6-2, 230
Ranking: ESPN/247Sports/Composite 4-star, Rivals 3-star
NFL Comparison: Arian Foster
The upside on defense for Whitehead is obvious. He is a tackler with stopping power and strong instincts. In fact, that is why most recruiting services have evaluated him as an inside linebacker. However, Whitehead has different ideas for his football future, and the Vols, still looking for bigger backs, were happy to accommodate him in this regard. So here we are, looking at Whitehead at the running back position. He lacks ideal speed at running back, but he has good balance and runs with power, making him a nightmare to try and take down on first contact. He runs with a long stride that can be deceptive when would-be tacklers try taking an angle on him. The same ability to lay the wood that he shows on defense comes into play when running through tacklers, showing an ability to take on contact and power through it, knocking defenders on their heels. A patient runner, he allows his blocks to develop and then bursts through the hole, showing strong explosiveness, but that explosiveness through the hole doesn't really translate into overall speed. A quicker rather than fast runner, he's difficult to make plays on behind the line because he can burst to the line of scrimmage so quickly. He'll never wow on the stopwatch, but when it comes to producing on gameday he gets the job done.

Camryn Beckwith, 5-9, 188
Ranking: N/A
PWO
He's not the biggest. He's not the fastest. He's not the brother who gets the headlines. He's also more than bait to land Dee. Beckwith is a guy who plays bigger than his size. Fearless, he's willing to take on tacklers and can break through arm tackles. He has enough quickness and speed to make players miss and hurt opponents in the open field. Need him to carry the ball? No problem. Catch it? He's down. Return it? Check. Make a block? Done. He's the kind of player willing to do the dirty work and do it with heart and high effort. This is the kind of kid you're hoping for when you offer walk-ons. You want a kid with heart, effort, and intelligence, and Beckwith checks off all these areas. He may never be more than a scout team player, but he's going to go out every single practice and make his teammates better.

Antonio Malone, 5-10, 211
Ranking: N/A
PWO
Balance. It's the first thing that jumps out at you watching his film. He simply doesn't get knocked off balance. He keeps his legs under him and churning, which prevents opponents from getting any easy tackles. When it comes to breaking tackles, Malone has the same mindset as fellow Blackman alum Jauan Jennings: you might get me down, but it's gonna take everyone on the defense and I'm going to make it hurt to do. Malone doesn't wow you with his speed. He won't blow anyone away with his size. He doesn't make impossible changes in direction. He just runs downhill and through anyone in his way. It's rare to see a single tackler bring him to the ground, and he keeps the legs churning after contact. Malone has a stocky build made to add weight, and the idea that he could get up to 240 without carrying it badly isn't a stretch. If Tennessee wanted a fullback in the class, Malone appears to have the frame and toughness to be that guy. This staff would love to have a true fullback to utilize, and Malone, if he goes that route, may have the best chance among the walk-ons of seeing the field.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Damarcus "Dee" Beckwith, 6-5, 215
Ranking: ESPN/247Sports 4-star, Rivals/Composite 3-star
NFL Comparison: Brandon Marshall
Rankings are subjective, but let me just subjectively say that anyone who thinks Beckwith isn't a 4-star is objectively out of their minds. Dee is a capable passer, an elite receiver on the jump ball, and a bruising runner out of the backfield, or at least he was in high school. He is built to physically dominate opponents, has deceptive speed with his long-legged stride, and his track and basketball athleticism translates perfectly to the receiver position. Feel like getting a little tricky? Well, he has the arm to throw it 50 yards downfield with relatively decent accuracy. He's a monster to bring down and his frame has plenty of room for growth. He could ultimately develop into a tight end like former Vol and current Buffalo Bill Jason Croom, but my instinct is that he remains at wide receiver as I don't think the added weight will steal that much speed from him, not that speed was his game to begin with. Beckwith has that dog mentality that could easily make him a fan favorite before his time in Knoxville is over.

Jimmy Calloway, 6-0, 207
Ranking: Rivals/247Sports/Composite 4-star, ESPN 3-star
NFL Comparison: Anquan Boldin
To say that Calloway is dynamic is a bit of an understatement. He returns kickoffs for touchdowns, returns punts, plays wide receiver, played quarterback, and just for good measure was a solid safety to boot. He has good size and great athleticism, having been timed at a 4.42-forty. However, some got uneasy when he ran a 4.7 at The Opening regionals, but anyone watching him play knows he doesn't play at that speed at all. The 4.4-speed is on display on his film, and he's shifty as well making it difficult to get a clean hit on him. If you don't form tackle him, he can make you look silly, breaking arm tackles and pulling away in the open field. He shows the ability to stop on a dime and change direction, a skill set that should make him nightmarish as a route runner. An elite athlete, he hurdles players like an aspiring Olympian practicing for the 60 meters hurdle. The biggest transition for him will be settling into receiver and learning to run those crisp routes his skill set makes him capable of since he hasn't been able to play as a full-time wide receiver since his sophomore season. His best path to early playing time may be as a returner, but if he picks up on route running quickly, don't count him out on offense either.

Jalin Hyatt, 6-0, 164
Ranking: ESPN/Rivals/247Sports/Composite 4-star
NFL Comparison: Will Fuller
4.31-electronically timed 40-yard dash. That's where you really start when talking about Hyatt, who has the kind of speed that coaches dream about being able to work with. Then you quickly pivot to the production because what is speed without the ability to translate it to the football field. Sometimes you get a long-strider who makes it look effortless like Randy Moss, but then you get a guy like Hyatt who mixes a long-stride with the ability to churn those legs at a gear that is unnatural off of the Olympic track. The second is what you get with Hyatt. An effective but still developing route runner, Hyatt can get separation from defenders, but press coverage is a potential issue for him if he can't shake the defender before they get their hands on him. However, with his speed and quick-twitch reactions, he will absolutely destroy you if you press and he gets loose. There is no recovering if he blows by you. It took a while for Hyatt's recruiting rankings to reflect his skills and production because he is skinny and will struggle to ever carry much more than 180-185 pounds. However, you can't hit what you can't catch, and catching Hyatt takes a very special athlete. He has a second gear and simply blows by defenders who take even good angles.

Malachi Wideman, 6-4, 195
Ranking: ESPN/Rivals/247Sports/Composite 4-star
NFL Comparison: Plaxico Burress
What. An. Athlete. This young man can jump out of the building and his acrobatic dunks have become somewhat legendary on the internet, in part due to his ability to elicit a reaction from LeBron James and Dwayne Wade. A 4-star recruit in both basketball and football, he fully intends to play both for the Vols as well. In fact, Beckwith may well do the same, just for a sample of the type of athletes the Vols secured this cycle (Hyatt is considering being a two-sport athlete as well). Wideman stayed double-covered most of his senior season, and yet all he did was beat that coverage all year. for anyone trying to get a feel for how talented Wideman is, he torched IMG Academy for 9 receptions, 128 yards, and Venice High's only touchdown of the game as he proved to simply be unstoppable for the collegiate feeder program. In fact, if you remove the damage done by Wideman, Venice only accounted for 120 yards on 46 plays and turned it over three times. Wideman was far from bad his first couple of years of football, accounting for 35 receptions, 545 yards, and 15 touchdowns, but at that point in his high school career, it was plain that he saw his future in basketball. As a senior, the switch flipped for him and he went off for 65 receptions for 1,064 yards and 13 touchdowns. The biggest question with Wideman isn't whether or not he could have a future in the NFL but rather whether or not he sticks with football or basketball if the time comes when he has to decide between the two. An elite leaper with above-average speed and decent route running, he can become a nightmare for opposing defenders.

Miles Jones Jr., 5-9, 170
Former School: Nebraska
Walk-on Transfer
Anytime you can add a 3-star walk-on in any sport, you do it. Tennessee has become excellent at doing just that, and they've struck gold again in Jones. In two years for American Heritage High, Jones accounted for 3,145 all-purpose yards on his way to earning a high 3-star/low 4-star ranking. A quality runner, receiver, and returner, Jones has a combined 23 touchdowns in two seasons, including 17 rushing, 3 receiving, and 3 returning as primarily an all-purpose back. He opted to head to Nebraska, and he was getting some early playing time before an injury derailed his freshman season and led him to redshirt. Unfortunately, by the time he returned to action, Nebraska had moved on from Jones and he wasn't able to find a regular place in the rotation again. Now Tennessee has a year to integrate this gifted athlete into the locker room and determine how best to use him after he sits out a year. The best news is that he will be a valuable scout team addition while he waits on eligibility.

Velus Jones Jr., 6-0, 190
Former School: Southern Cal
Transfer
Vol fans, if this one works out like I think it can remember to send thank you notes to Tee Martin. Jones never gained much traction at USC as a wide receiver, but he was their primary kickoff returner the last three seasons, averaging 24.0 yards per return and scoring a touchdown on a return last season. However, his best season on offense came as a junior under Martin as offensive coordinator when he caught 24 passes for 266 yards and a touchdown and ran for another touchdown on his six carries. If that and his special teams abilities was all that he brought to the Vols as a grad transfer, that would be more than enough to justify his addition, but Jones has a secret weapon: he's built like a running back. Although he's not going to play running back in Knoxville, he has the ability and willingness to make plays over the middle that other receiver tend to shy away from. His yard per catch average will never wow because he's not blazing fast, but his agility and toughness will enable him to carve out a role on the roster that could very easily see his last season be his best season.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Cooper Mays, 6-3, 283
Ranking: ESPN/Rivals/247Sports/Composite 4-star
NFL Comparison: Austin Blythe
He's not the most athletically impressive. He's not the biggest. He's not the strongest. He'll never be first off the bus. However, he's got no fear at all and will take on bigger defensive linemen with the tenacity of a pitbull. In fact, he may well be the heir apparent to the "Dog" moniker with Mays being the epitome of it's not the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog. Mays is a fearless and aggressive blocker who outfights bigger opponents with leverage and tenacity. Mays explodes at the snap and finishes his blocks. He shows a nice initial punch, although he can get his arms outside of the shoulder pads, although he does a good job of not getting a handful of jersey most of the time. Mays is probably never going to be called fast, but quick is certainly a descriptor that should be used with him. He is good at getting to the second level and usually does a good job of engaging and maintaining blocks, although he slips into a defensive mindset at times and essentially shoulder tackles the defender. Speaking of, he was a solid defensive lineman as well in high school, but his limitations with athleticism and size make offensive line a stronger prospect for him. He'll have to mentally adjust to not being able to bully guys out of the way, but based on his camp performances it appears to be an adjustment he can make quickly.

James Robinson, 6-4, 343
Ranking: ESPN/Rivals/247Sports/Composite 3-star
NFL Comparison: Ramon Foster
Robinson is a big, strong, mauling offensive lineman. Although he likely lacks the athleticism or length for tackle, he may have the strength to prove a passable option at right tackle in a pinch. Robinson will probably never draw the headlines that others have of late with the Vols, but he will be a consistent bruiser who clears holes and holds up well in pass protection. He does a good job of engaging and controlling his defender, preventing them from having any chance to recover and try to make a play. He moves well for a player his size, even though he will probably never impress in a sprint. Robinson carries his weight well and may not need to trim a lot of weight to be capable of entering the rotation.

Javontez Spraggins, 6-3, 352
Ranking: ESPN/Rivals/247Sports/Composite 3-star
NFL Comparison: Gabe Jackson
Spraggins is massive but moves well for his size. He packs a punch at the point of contact. He maintains a good base and pad level, winning the leverage game consistently. He uses his hands well and keeps his feet driving to clear out the defender. He should start out at guard for the Vols, but he's also capable of playing center. He generally gets pancakes through driving his man to the ground rather than trying to blow the defender up. He's probably a better athlete than Robinson, and he may well have better technique too, although Spraggins doesn't have the same impact with his initial punch and is likely to need to do work in the weight room. Additionally, Spraggins doesn't carry his weight as well and will need to trim 15-20 pounds before he's likely to make a major impact for the Vols.

Cade Mays: 6-6, 318
Former School: Georgia
Transfer
Never has the fan base been quite so divided as they were with the news that Cade Mays was transferring to Tennessee. Hurt feelings bubbled back up over an infamous video posted by Mays before he enrolled at Georgia, but ultimately no salve cures ills quite like good play. Mays can certainly provide that in Knoxville after playing in 25 games with 18 starts for Georgia in his two seasons as a Bulldog. Mays showed himself to be a versatile asset for Georgia, seeing playing time at all five positions on the offensive line and won awards as an offensive newcomer and most versatile in his two seasons. His father Kevin was an All-SEC guard for Tennessee and younger brother Cooper was mentioned above, so his pedigree is unquestioned. Mays has hired a lawyer to assist with his appeal with the NCAA for immediate eligibility with the Vols, and hopes are high that he will get it. If he does, there is a strong chance that he will find himself starting at right guard for the Vols alongside two freshman All-SEC performers at tackle, an All-SEC guard, and a sixth-year center, giving the Vols a great mix of talent and experience.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Dominic Bailey, 6-3, 293
Ranking: ESPN/Rivals/247Sports/Composite 4-star
NFL Comparison: Jarran Reed
Bailey is another guy who won't impress in the 40-yard dash, but he at times looks almost unblockable, displaying a great ability to use his hands to shed blockers as well as high-end strength and explosiveness off the snap. He has a nice initial punch, but what he lacks right now is a collection of moves to shed blockers. At this point, he uses his punch, quick hands, and strength to body blockers out of his way. In the SEC, that's not going to have a high degree of success, so first and foremost the coaches will need to work with Bailey on technique. A good recent example of this type of player in recent Vol history would be Owen Williams. You can have success without the technique, but having that complete skill set is the difference between Williams and a player like Jesse Mahelona. The good news for Bailey is that he has five years to play four and will have a leg up on both players I mentioned when it comes to being able to take time and develop. Bailey, at least early in his career, is likely to play end, but as he builds onto his frame it isn't far-fetched to think he could develop into an explosive and disruptive nose guard.

RJ Perry, 6-6, 299
Ranking: ESPN/Rivals/247Sports/Composite 3-star
NFL Comparison: RJ McIntosh
In an era of football in which defensive tackles are often getting smaller and more athletic, Perry is a bit of an oddity. Perry is defensive end long, but he's not particularly fleet of foot. He carries his weight incredibly well and, if the staff were to move him to offensive tackle or develop him as a nose guard, he could comfortably carry 320+ pounds without it having a particularly significant impact on his athleticism. He's a sure tackler and tenacious, never giving up on a play. Perry lined up at defensive end, defensive tackle, offensive tackle, and even tight end at various times in high school, so he's versatile enough that finding him a home shouldn't be a problem, but first and foremost the staff needs to decide how they intend to use him and develop him. Fortunately, with no defensive linemen being lost to graduation this offseason, redshirting and developing Perry is a luxury the Vols have. Don't rule out him finding his home on the offensive line, but he's going to get his first look on defense.

Omari Thomas, 6-4, 306
Ranking: ESPN/Rivals/247Sports/Composite 4-star
NFL Comparison: Fletcher Cox
The good news is there's no reason he can't play 3-4 defensive end. The bad news is he's going to have to learn how to be a top-end defensive lineman after being very much a two-way player in high school who never really had the chance to focus on honing his craft at either offensive or defensive line. Like Perry, it wouldn't blow anyone's mind if he found a home on the offensive line, but with his explosiveness, speed, and pass rush moves, it's hard to imagine he'd completely miss on defense enough to make that move. It's far from a stretch to say he was often the biggest and best athlete on the field in high school, and he's probably in for a bit of a shock trying to make the transition to the SEC. It also might not kill him to shed some bad weight upon arriving on campus. Again, I don't think he's going to win many sprint competitions, but if Tennessee's linemen were to line up and run against each other, I'd probably put my money down on Thomas. He's certainly quick enough to put an offensive tackle on their heels and he never gives up on a play. He could be part of the solution to getting more out of the defensive line on the pass rush, along with Bailey.

Deven Jones, 6-4, 289
Ranking: NA
PWO
A local product, Jones has SEC size and quickness, and he explodes off the line at the snap. He was bigger and stronger than most offensive linemen he saw in high school, and his effort was there on virtually every down. However, some bad habits did and will continue to hold him back until they can be corrected. He doesn't punch well at the point of attack, and even then he barely uses his hands other than to try and throw the blocker aside. He doesn't engage and extend his arms, allowing the blocker to get into his body and limit his ability to break free. While this wasn't too much of a hindrance in high school, in college it would prove to be a consistent issue. His pad level is inconsistent, and being a taller lineman that can give up leverage to smaller blockers that he would be likely to encounter as an interior lineman. The good news is none of the issues are impossible to correct, and he already shows good drive with his legs and the strength to push blockers back even if they do remain engaged. It's not fair to expect Jones to make an impact on the field for the Vols, but he can be a nightmare for the starters on scout team and if he can develop both physically and in his technique, there's no reason he couldn't potentially exceed expectations.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER

Tyler Baron, 6-5, 256
Ranking: ESPN/Rivals/247Sports/Composite 4-star
NFL Comparison: Preston Smith
Baron will be making the transition from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 outside linebacker in college, but it's a transition he should be able to make nicely. He's not going to blow anyone away in combine events, but he's a smart player who is willing to wait until his opportunity comes to attack and then explodes into the tackle. He has a nice compliment of moves he utilizes to beat the offensive lineman, but in high school, he also displayed a capacity to simply bull rush the tackle and blow up the play that way. He has good awareness that keeps him from getting easily sucked in on play-action and allowing him to rapidly recognize whether or not the hand-off actually happened without overpursuing. He has the athleticism to pursue the ballcarrier down the field if they get behind the defense and he doesn't give up on the play. He likely needs to improve his agility, but that won't prevent him from playing downhill as a situation pass rusher as a freshman while he learns the finer details of outside linebacker.

Morven Joseph, 6-2, 220
Ranking: ESPN/Rivals/Composite 4-star, 247Sports 3-star
NFL Comparison: Vic Beasley
Joseph has one major advantage over Baron coming in: he's already gotten comfortable in high school playing out of a two-point stance. Joseph is quick, but don't mistake his speed for his only weapon as a pass rusher. He's plenty capable of using his freakishly athletic frame to bully blockers, especially running backs. He's a bit on the light side right now, but his nice complement of pass rush moves enable him to beat blockers despite giving up significant weight to them most of the time. Joseph is well-built and already strong for his age, and transitioning to the college game shouldn't be too much of a challenge in that sense. He will need to build on that frame, but he could easily be a force around 240. He can hit a hole in the line quickly enough that the blockers can't recover, disrupting the play before it has a chance to develop, but he has to anticipate the snap to be able to pull that off as his speed has its limitations. He was typically pointed in the direction of the quarterback and told to go destroy anyone with the football, but he has been dropped back in coverage in the past. I wouldn't say he has coverage abilities so much as an ability to separate a receiver from the football by force. He does a good job of tracking the football, and Joseph is also comfortable with his hand in the dirt, meaning he, as well as Baron, are options to remain on the field in nickel looks.

Sayeed Shah, 6-3, 223
Ranking: 247Sports 3-star
PWO
Again, landing a ranked walk-on is often a big deal, especially one who had an offer from an FBS program, but that's what the Vols are adding in Shah, a 247Sports 3-star who held an offer from Southern Miss. Shah had 85 tackles, 18 tackles for loss, and 10 sacks across his junior and senior seasons despite playing as an undersized defensive end with natural inclinations to play like an outside linebacker. Shah shows nice quickness and good use of his hands, although his pass rush moves are a bit limited at this point. He has enough speed to recover despite having a bad habit of overpursuing plays. He doesn't show natural comfort when getting out of his stance, and I suspect he would show a lot more comfort out of a two-point stance. He doesn't give up on plays, shows solid recognition on the play, and closes well once he has a bead on the ballcarrier. He needs to do a better job of wrapping up on the tackle and not slipping into bad habits like diving for the legs, but he would benefit a lot from being in position more consistently, so fixing the overpursuit issue would aid with this. Shah is likely to be a project, but he is the type of walk-on that could find his way into the rotation down the line.

Eunique Valentine
Ranking: Rivals 2-star
PWO
I'm either missing something or this is a young man who was wildly underrated by the services. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that he didn't really explode until his senior season, although the same could be said for his teammate Tyler Baron. In two seasons, Valentine had 144 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, 12 sacks, and an interception. While it's true he benefitted from playing with Baron, Baron also benefitted from Valentine's presence. He played outside linebacker and defensive end last year, switching back and forth between his hand in the dirt and a two-point stance. He has decent leverage, good use of hands, and enough strength to bullrush. He can find the ballcarrier in traffic and has good explosion off the snap. He plays sideline-to-sideline, but he lacks elite athleticism. The former Navy commit is an FBS talent and has some capacity in coverage. He doesn't overpursue, staying home and forcing the defense to play honestly, cutting off the pitch man on option plays. A solid tackler, he doesn't slip into arm tackling often. This is a young man who could play for Tennessee before his time in Knoxville is done.

INSIDE LINEBACKER

Bryson Eason, 6-2, 270
Ranking: Rivals/247Sports/Composite 4-star, ESPN 3-star
NFL Comparison: Rey Maualuga
Big. Strong. Athletic. All are good words to describe Eason, who more than looks the part of an inside linebacker and shows off the ability to play sideline to sideline. Eason has the chops to play in coverage or attack downhill. A sure tackler, once Eason gets ahold of the ballcarrier, they are pretty much done moving forward as he hits like a Mack truck. He keeps track of the football well and is strong enough to simply pluck it from a smaller running back even with good ball security. He doesn't give up on a play, and although he may not look like it he has recovery speed. He has good coverage skills and can pull down an interception when the opportunity presents itself. He runs like a linebacker despite having the frame of a defensive end. He form tackles rather than trying to arm tackle or launch at the other player, making him tough to escape when he has a bead on you. Despite being an absolute wrecking ball, he would benefit from trimming off a few pounds and replacing that with further muscle, so he's not a finished product by any means. He has a well-developed lower body but his upper body needs to catch up. He is capable of playing early, perhaps even starting, especially if he makes the most of the summer strength and conditioning program.

Martavius French, 6-2, 227
Ranking: Rivals/Composite 4-star, ESPN/247Sports 3-star
NFL Comparison: Alexander Johnson
French isn't currently the most athletic linebacker, but he plays downhill and makes the ballcarrier pay with his crushing hits. He's more inclined to forget to form tackle and shoulder tackle, but he hits like ton of bricks and more often than not high school running backs simply couldn't withstand the impact. He's strong and has room to grow still, and he shows good instincts on the football field. He can train to improve his speed up to a point, but he's probably never going to be a comfortable sideline to sideline defender from the inside linebacker spot in college. In fact, it's reasonable that he could ultimately develop into an outside linebacker. He has a frame capable of holding another 20 pounds comfortably. French shows patience when he's not blitzing, waiting on blocks to develop before making his way through the traffic to attack the ballcarrier. He can explode in short bursts to complete a play that might otherwise get away from him. French can drop back into coverage, but it isn't something that appears to come naturally to him, and in college, I'd be concerned about having him cover anyone faster than a tight end in most cases.

Tamarion McDonald, 6-2, 199
Ranking: Rivals 4-star, ESPN/247Sports/Composite 3-star
NFL Comparison: Deone Bucannon
This is definitely a guy who can drop back into coverage, so the initial announcement that McDonald would start off at safety made perfect sense. He's an aggressive tackler and quick player able to attack behind the line of scrimmage. He's a bit similar to walk-on Kwauze Garland last year, who played outside linebacker in high school, but Garland's frame doesn't have the same growth potential that McDonald's does. Even as a safety, he could be a nickel linebacker, a player who utilizes additional size and strength to attack from the nickel position while still being a safety-like asset in coverage. In fact, Pruitt coached a similar talent at Alabama in Mark Barron, a high school safety who grew into a college 'tweener befor developing into an NFL linebacker. The guess on my end is that McDonald outgrows safety quicker than Barron did and emerges as a nickel linebacker who creates a more hybridized nickel package that is simultaneously able to function as a nickel defense and a 4-3 package. McDonald is a sure tackler when he doesn't abandon technique and slip into shoulder tackling. His length is an asset in coverage, but he also shows a second gear to close the gap once the ball is in the air. He shows an ability to beat blocks and make plays in the backfield. He has sideline to sideline ability, which should translate into safety if he does ultimately land there.

DEFENSIVE BACK

Keshawn Lawrence, 6-2, 202
Ranking: ESPN/Rivals/247Sports/Composite 4-star
NFL Comparison: Charles Woodson
Yeah, it's lofty. It's also warranted. Woodson made a name for himself by making spectacular plays in all aspects of the game, and that is something Lawrence is absolutely able to do, showing himself to be a dynamic returner, defender, and even receiver. At receiver, he shows a nose for making his way through heavy traffic to the open field and the ability to high-point the football. These same skills serve him well as a returner, weaving his way through the coverage unit to freedom. He can play both corner and safety, and he's a sure tackler with good read and recognition skills that serve him both in attacking the ball carrier and in coverage. He spent a lot of time in run support in high school, likely a function of the opponents faced, but when the ball is thrown his way it generally proved to be bad news for the quarterback. There's a fairly decent shot he'll start off his career at corner as the Vols are still looking for help there and arguably don't have a ton of ideal options left to pursue at that position. He's a stronger punt returner than a kickoff returner, and it's realistic that he could be a top candidate to replace Marquez Callaway in that capacity.

Doneiko Slaughter, 6-0, 185
Ranking: Rivals 4-star, ESPN/247Sports/Composite 3-star
NFL Comparison: Rodney McLeod
Slaughter is a guy who may surprise early in his career and earn early playing time. That is in part due to the fact that the staff is planning to ask him to play a very similar position to the one he played in high school as a versatile defender in the Star position. Slaughter played safety and outside linebacker in high school, and his statistics reflect that versatility, finishing his high school career with 121 tackles, 16 tackles for loss, 11 sacks, 6 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, and a blocked field goal. As a senior, all three of his interceptions were returned for touchdowns. He's an instinctive player who tackles like he's determined to break the ballcarrier in half. He's tenacious and won't give up on pursuing a play, and he shows an ability at times to make plays from behind. He is a ball-seeking missile, destroying on contact much of the time. At least for the role he's expected to fill, he's one of the better-prepared players coming in, although he could stand to add a few pounds once he arrives on campus.

William Wright, 6-0, 180
Ranking: N/A
PWO
The first thing that jumps out about Wright is that his listed height is generous unless he played with giants. He's probably not 6-0 in high heels, but he plays bigger than his actual size. He has a good ability to read the play, and he seldom gets out of position in coverage. He doesn't sell out for interceptions, although as a player who also played a lot of wide receiver in high school he has the hands to come up with picks. He reacts quickly, but even on the rare occasion that he gets beat, he shows plenty of recovery speed. A solid tackler with good form and he is high effort on every play. Again, I suspect his reported forty time is generous, but I doubt very seriously that it's that generous based on the way he torched players as a receiver and made his way around the field. I'm not sure he's a guy you'll see playing more than garbage time on defense, but he might easily find a niche on special teams.

SPECIALIST

Will Albright, 6-1, 213
Ranking: ESPN/Rivals/247Sports/Composite 2-star
NFL Comparison: Jeremy Cain
One of the nation's best long snappers, Albright is also an excellent athlete. He played linebacker and wide receiver in high school, and he is a guy who can get downfield in a hurry after the snap. He's an aggressive tackler and has strong instincts. He has good size as a starting point, and he should be able to hold around 235-240 pounds well without hurting his ability to get down the field to make plays. He does a good job of snapping accurately, getting out of his stance downfield, and beat blocks to be in position to make a play. He also snaps accurately on field goals. With Riley Lovingood graduating, there is an opportunity to win the job available to Albright, although rising redshirt senior Jake Yelich could have something to say about that assuming he returns.

Grant Reid, 6-1, 225
Ranking: 4.5 stars from Rubio Long Snapping Camp
PWO
Reid is probably right now a bit of a borderline Power 5 guy, but this is a good walk-on offer. Tennessee is going to be searching for a new long snapper in 2020. Reid is well-built, looking like a linebacker. His snaps can get a bit wobbly on him at times, which is something that will need cleaning up in order to prevent errant snaps or slow punts, but they arrive where they need to with reasonable consistency. His snaps get to the punter effortlessly, but they don't tend to get overly high. He gets down the field well in coverage, likely by virtue of his playing tight end for Baylor School, but he's not the athlete Albright is by any means. His senior film shows him snapping in rainy conditions, and he doesn't let the wetness effect his snaps. Smooth transition to field goals and the shorter distance seems to help negate some of the wobbling. When talking about long snappers, sometimes a team can use more than one, which we've seen in the past with the Vols, and Reid's crisp field goal snapping could certainly give him a chance at that job. For the punting job, I think he still has further to go, both with his snaps and with his coverage.

Saturday, November 16, 2019

"Where's the Run Game?"

It's no great secret that Tennessee has struggled to run the ball consistently since the departure of Alvin Kamara in 2016. They've been in the bottom three in rushing yards ever since in the SEC, and they haven't been able to run for more than 15 touchdowns in a season since that time. Some of them looked to the offensive line for the answers. Others think it's the running backs. Still more eyeball the coaching as the problem. None of them are necessarily the complete answer, but they are all part of the issue ailing the Volunteers right now.

The offensive line in Knoxville is just finally beginning to get its feet under it in 2019, but despite what some would like to think those 2015 and 2016 offensive lines weren't overpowering juggernauts either. Tennessee was blessed with a spectacular athlete at quarterback as well as a nice stable of running backs that made the offensive line look good even when they weren't playing that way. Josh Dobbs, Alvin Kamara, John Kelly, and Jalen Hurd were simply excellent runners out of the backfield, so they could create even when things broke down with the blocking. Things haven't gotten as bad as they were in 2011 (although you'd probably have to try to get back to that level of rushing incompetence), but they are certainly as lean as they've been since that point. In the last two seasons, it was easier to point the finger at the offensive line and say they were the problem, but a significant reduction in the tackles for loss allowed makes this issue a bit foggier. The running backs aren't taking as many hits in the backfield, yet the numbers haven't shown any significant improvement, and when it comes to touchdowns they've gotten worse.

At running back, there's a distinct difference in the group from last season: there are no bigger guys in the mix. Jeremy Banks and Madre London helped do some of the heavy lifting last season, combining for 391 yards and 6 touchdowns. Other than those two, the rest of the team only accounted for 9 rushing touchdowns. Both over 210 pounds at 6-1, none of the current Vols are anywhere close to that. With no power element in the running game, the backs are much more prone to being tackled easily between the tackles. Additionally, they have a habit of ad-libbing and going off-script, refusing to trust the holes that are there or hoping to break longer runs. While the Vols have tried to find a power element in former high school running back and current linebacker Quavaris Crouch, the results have been underwhelming at best and it hasn't been turned to as a reliable option by the staff. Ty Chandler has averaged 5 yards per carry in his three years and Tim Jordan has averaged 4, so don't think these are bad backs. Also, sacks are rolled into rushing totals, and the 77 sacks allowed so far in three years is 77 negative yardage plays going against the rushing totals on top of the non-sack tackles for loss.

How about coaching? Well, we're on the third running back coach in three years, so considering neither Chandler nor Jordan has had the same running back coach for more than a year, I'll let you toss out a guess as to why that may not be conducive to consistent improvement. Robert Gillespie is a talented running back coach who got stuck in the nightmarish 2017 season. He landed on his feet at UNC and remained the running back coach there even through staff turnover. Meanwhile, Tennessee turned to former Heisman winner Chris Weinke to coach their running backs, a role he hadn't ever filled before. He's now the quarterback coach, so I'll let you draw your own conclusions on how well that experiment went over. Now, the current running back coach is David Johnson, who was initially hired to coach the wide receivers before the staff shuffling moved him back to the running back position, which he last coached at Tulane when he was in charge of both the running backs and tight ends, which was the job that launched him into his high level of successes with wide receivers at Memphis. The jury is still out on things this season because it's probably necessary to see him handle the position when there's finally a bigger back or two in the mix to provide some balance, especially since Ty Chandler is on pace for his most productive rushing season as a Vol and Tim Jordan is really only seeing a dip in his production due to a lack of use early in the season when the coaches were feeding true freshman Eric Gray.

"Why can't we run the ball?"

Yeah, I feel your pain. I really do. The answers lie somewhat in recruiting and transfers and coaching turnover and the blocking. The reality is this isn't going to be some easy fix. You need more balance in the backfield. The offensive line needs to continue progressing. A coach needs time to bring in his guys and develop them. The guys in place need time to learn an offense and from a coach so they aren't having to relearn every offseason. These are all things that can be taken care of. Just a matter of patience and putting in the work now.

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Jeremy Pruitt, Derrick Ansley, and the Resurgence of the Tennessee Defense

Welcome back, Orange Swarm. We missed you. Now, you might think I'm being a bit too effusive in my praise here, but hear me out because Tennessee is genuinely on the road to being the type of defense that ruins days in the SEC week in and week out. The eye test is obvious, right? I don't need to explain to you what your eyes are seeing. Instead, I'll dive into the numbers.

Let's begin with scoring defense, where the Vols are currently on pace for their best season in points per game allowed since 2015 when they held opponents to 20 points per outing. This season, they are holding foes to just 23 points a game despite giving up 29+ in five games this season. That's because in the other five, they haven't allowed more than 21 points and have allowed an average of 10.2 in their wins compared to 35.8 in their losses. The early season struggles against Georgia State and BYU can be attributed at least in part to youth, although the new defensive coordinator likely also caused some of those early growing pains. Now, it's true that Tennessee is only 9th in the SEC in scoring defense right now, but they are 41st nationally, so they are in the top third of the country in scoring defense, which is a testament to just how good the SEC is at defense.

Total defense is even crazier for the Vols right now. They are on the road to their best season in total defense since 2011 when they held opponents to just 340.5 yards per game. This season, 348.6 yards per outing is all opponents are able to muster. That's currently good for 8th in the SEC and 37th nationally. They are also 8th in the SEC in yards per play allowed at 5.2, which is tied for 39th nationally. That's the fewest yards per play allowed by the Vols since 2009.

When it comes to rushing defense, the Vols aren't quite as strong, but they are showing a slight improvement over last season (in spite of Kentucky going nuts) and are having their best season against the run since 2015. The yards per game number is fine, good for 10th in the SEC and 61st nationally, so very middle of the pack. However, Tennessee is only allowing 3.9 yards per carry, which is good for 50th nationally and 9th in the SEC. The 39.5 attempts per game they've faced is the second-most in the SEC and among the highest totals in the nation in attempts per game, so the Vols have had to hold opponents to that lower yards per carry average as teams are a bit hesitant to turn to the pass against Tennessee.

Now, why wouldn't teams want to pass against the Vols? Well, they are 6th in the SEC in pass defense and 28th nationally. They've tied with Auburn for 5th in the SEC in fewest passing touchdowns allowed, which is good for a tie for 25th in the nation. They are also tied for 2nd nationally in interceptions and tied for the lead in the SEC. Now, it's not all good news as the Vols are 9th in the SEC in yards per attempt allowed, 9th in completion percentage, and 8th in opponent quarterback rating, but even so the Vols have done more than enough to make opponents think twice about dropping back to pass.

The Vols are currently averaging 2.5 sacks per game, with 25 total, good for 3rd in the SEC and tied for 29th nationally. Their sack per game average is 5th in the SEC and 41st nationally. The Vols haven't had a pass rush like this since 2014 when Derek Barnett and Curt Maggit combined for 21 sacks on their own. Tennessee isn't quite that limited in the pass rush this season as 8 players have multiple sacks this season and 12 have recorded at least one.

The Vols have seen a drop-off this season in tackles for loss. That is very much a factor of those early-season struggles and an inexperienced group on the defensive line. Now, that said, their 51 tackles for loss is still currently good for 8th in the SEC (however, their 5.1 TFLs per game is just 11th in the SEC). The main issue is those first five games, where they had just 21 tackles for loss compared to the 30 they've racked up in the last five games. If the Vols can continue to be productive in making negative plays in the next two games (certainly possible as Vanderbilt and Missouri are among the SEC's worst at giving up tackles for loss), they might be able to finish with 63-65 tackles for loss, which would put them pretty close to last season's numbers.

When it comes to the secondary, the Vols have seen enormous improvements in this area. The Vols currently have their highest interception total since 2014, and at their current pace they could finish better than that. In fact, with a bowl game at this pace, they may well match 2010's 18 interceptions, the best total the Vols have had in the last decade. The Vols currently have 45 passes defended, tied for 5th in the SEC and 32nd nationally. They are tied with Clemson in passes defended per game nationally at 52nd and 11th in the SEC, but part of this is a factor of the Vols seeing the third-fewest passing attempts per game in the SEC and 23rd fewest nationally, so there will be correspondingly fewer opportunities to break up passes.

Forcing fumbles and recovering them hasn't been a particular strong suit of the Vol defense this season, but you'd rather get guys to the ground than give up extra yards to a runner trying to knock the ball loose. They've forced the second-fewest fumbles in the SEC and are tied with five other teams for the fewest recovered in the SEC.

What about blocking kicks, which is generally attributed to the defense? Well, they are tied for the SEC lead with Texas A&M and Alabama at 3 blocks, two of which turned into touchdowns and one which helped decide the Kentucky game yesterday by taking a game-tying field goal off the table for the Wildcats late. The Vols are tied for 8th nationally in blocked kicks as well.

Now, everything I've said so far is all well and good, but let's get into the nitty-gritty, right? Tennessee hasn't been great at getting off the field on third down, unfortunately, allowing opponents to convert on 42 percent of their attempts, 13th worst in the SEC and an abysmal 89th nationally. Tennessee has improved on this over the last three games, but not nearly as much as you'd like to see.

The news on fourth down conversions is better, as they have held opponents to converting just shy of 41%, good for 7th in the SEC and 26th nationally. Again, this is an area where the Vols began roughly on the season before turning things around.

In the red zone...well, let's play a game of good news, bad news. The good news is that opponents have only converted on 78.38% of their red zone trips, which is 6th in the SEC and 31st nationally. Bad news is that when the opponent has scored, it's almost always been a touchdown. 23 of 29 scoring trips in the red zone for opponents have been touchdowns, and the 23 red zone touchdowns allowed is 11th in the SEC and tied for 87th nationally. The Vols have killed themselves at times defending the red zone with dumb penalties.

That's all well and good, but how well is Tennessee doing at preventing the big play? Not so great when it comes to giving up plays of 10-19 yards where they are 11th in the SEC, but it gets a whole lot better after that. They are at least tied for 2nd or 1st in every other category from 20+ on this season. That is a big improvement on last season where the Vols were much easier to gash for big plays.

Tennessee isn't necessarily giving everyone fits yet, but they certainly appear to be on their way back and they are taking the fast lane there. The best news for Vol fans has to be the fact that they only lose three seniors from this defense, and they will get back redshirt senior to be Emmit Gooden after his season-ending injury and might also get back Baylen Buchanan if he can recover from a condition resulting in a narrowing of his spine. Darrell Taylor, Daniel Bituli, and Nigel Warrior won't be easy players to replace, but the Vols are recruiting well on defense and have a number of pieces already on the roster to build on this strong 2019 performance.

The real question is what brought us here? Why the strong improvement in 2019? Well, a couple of things happened. The Vols saw the departure of both of their secondary coaches and replaced them with their new defensive coordinator, Derrick Ansley. Ansley had just finished up his first NFL season coaching the Oakland secondary, but his history with Jeremy Pruitt and his first shot as a coordinator where simply too much to pass up. Pruitt and Ansley fully understand what the other is looking to accomplish.

In 2018, the Vols had a true co-coordinator situation in place with inside linebacker coach Kevin Sherrer and outside linebacker coach Chris Rumph sharing those duties, but with the hire of Ansley, there was a shuffling that took place. Sherrer lost his defensive coordinator duties and took over the job of coordinating the special teams (which he's done a masterful job with, but that's for another day) and Rumph, although still listed as a co-coordinator, really became that in name more than in practice as he has heavy involvement in the game planning during the week but no playcalling participation. Ansley is the playcaller and defensive coordinator, and he serves as an extension of Jeremy Pruitt's will. Now, you have two great defensive coordinators and a collection of successful defensive coaches guiding this team and improving their individual units every step of the way.

Sunday, November 10, 2019

My Two Cents on Jarrett Guarantano


Yeah, this is going to be new. It's also going to be much more casual than the normal fare from me. Consider this a conversation of sorts. These are going to be opinion pieces, and sometimes I'll be calling out fans or players or coaches. Other times, I'll be pouring out praise. Maybe I'll be lamenting the NCAA or the rules or the refs. Maybe I'll be shouting "hallelujah!" about something. It's all about what strikes me at that moment.

For those of you who don't like Guaratano, cool. I don't need you to and I don't even want you to. That's your business. For those that like or at least respect him, also totally cool. Same deal. Feel the way you want to feel. I'm going to tell you what I think of the young man, and then I'm going to talk about reasons to tone things down a bit, with maybe just a sprinkling of statistical facts scattered throughout.

Jarrett Guarantano is an average to below-average quarterback with flashes of being above-average at times. He will periodically make a play that absolutely hurts your head trying to make sense of what he was thinking, but then he'll have games where he's throwing deep passes and finding his receivers and the defense can't stop him like he did with South Carolina, UTC, and Mississippi State. More often than not, you get the guy we saw play against UAB, Georgia State, and BYU who makes good and bad plays and doesn't win you the game but doesn't necessarily lose it for you either. He's just there and plays well enough to let you compete.

This is one of the toughest SOBs playing right now, at least physically. Opinions certainly vary on his mental makeup as far as toughness goes, either because of his body language at times or his seeming disinterest in past games when he wasn't playing, but physically, few players can take the abuse he has and keep on getting up and taking more. As for my take on his mental toughness, this is a young man who has received more than his fair share of abuse from fans as well as tough coaching, and rather than taking to the transfer portal and finding greener pastures, he's toughed it out and endured the criticism and, from some of the less pleasant members of the fan base, outright personal attacks.

How about production though? Well, Jarrett Guarantano has produced 1,402 passing yards on 62.1% completions for 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He's tied for 6th in the SEC in touchdowns and 7th in the SEC in completion percentage. He's also 9th in the conference in passing yards despite having lost some playing time to the two freshmen for the Vols, Brian Maurer and JT Shrout. How about those freshmen? Well, they've combined for 703 passing yards on 48% completions for 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. On the ground, all three have produced positive yardage rushing, with Maurer running for 48 yards and 2 touchdowns, Guarantano running for 31 yards, and Shrout running for 4 yards.

Now, this will be a bit speculative, but what if Guarantano had started all season? What if we take his stats right now but expand on those to estimate what he might have done without the lost snaps? For the purposes of this, I'll limit this to the 268 passing attempts that the Vols have had thus far and just apply his completion percentage, yards per completion/attempt, and touchdowns per attempt numbers. That gives us 167 completions for 2,224 yards and 21 touchdowns. Hard to say whether or not he could have actually put up those numbers, but at 8.3 yards per completion and a touchdown for every 13 attempts, this is where we land.

More than anything, what Guarantano has done for the Vols over the last six games has been providing a steadying veteran presence amid the storms. Maurer may bring energy, but Guarantano off the bench has been able to focus that energy. That, as well as the defensive play, has been the key to the turnaround. Maurer was able to infuse new energy, but now Guarantano is the ringleader of this offense. More than at any point last year, he's making plays, not just managing the show. He's fourth in the SEC in quarterback rating. A year ago he was 8th despite playing significantly more.

None of this wipes away his mistakes. The bizarre decision on the goal line at Alabama, some early season poor passing decisions, and some poor body language at times all still happened. However, he has rebounded and come back as the best version of himself he has been in his four years in Knoxville. In a just world, we would have gotten a chance to see who Jarrett Guarantano might have become under more stable circumstances, but whether or not he returns next season one thing has become abundantly clear: he will be the quarterback who bridged the switch from Butch Jones to Jeremy Pruitt and the man who steered the offensive ship as Tennessee finally turned the corner under Pruitt.

To summarize: Guarantano has put up with a lot of crap, some warranted and some not. However, he's come through it stronger and the last few weeks is playing the best football of his career in Knoxville. Love him. Hate him. Fall somewhere in between. He doesn't seem to be a young man who cares much either way because he's just going to take the field and give his all for Tennessee.

Saturday, October 12, 2019

What to Make of Tennessee Through Six Games

Through six games, it's been mostly bad news where the record is concerned, but what about statistically? Well, there are areas of obvious improvement, areas of obvious regression, and probably a lot more in common with the first six games of last season than most would think. Tennessee's defense is pretty much on par with their defense from last season through six games and given they held two early-season opponents to under 200 yards of total offense, that means that the defense isn't getting beaten as badly against better opponents. The Vols gave up 422.5 yards per game to Auburn, Florida, West Virginia, and Georgia through six in 2018 while allowing just 164 per game to UTEP and ETSU. This season, Florida and Georgia did pile up the yards to the tune of 483.5 yards per game, but the other four games the Vols gave up just 296.25 per game. As far as averages go, the difference through six games in yards per game allowed is just 0.2 yards per game. The defense has just two fewer tackles for loss than last season, three more sacks, and double the turnovers through six games as opposed to last season. Long story made short, the defense is pretty much on par with last season's defense or better in some areas.

That must mean the issue is the offense, right? Yes and no. The offense is averaging 3.7 fewer points per game through six games and 8.8 fewer yards per game, but the yardage difference isn't statistically significant. The points are, and there is a direct correlation to explain the why behind it. It's turnovers. Tennessee had three turnovers through six games last season. This season, they've had 12. While Tennessee has forced more turnovers, they essentially have broken even in turnover margin this year compared to a 2:1 turnover margin through six last year. The offensive line is allowing fewer tackles for loss and pretty much the same number of sacks through six games, so the bottom line is these turnovers fall on the quarterbacks and skill position players. Now, the quarterbacks do have three more touchdowns so far this season compared to last season, but the running backs have six fewer touchdowns on the year. The inability of the running backs to punch it into the end zone is yet another factor in the downfall of the offense this season. Yardage is great, but it means nothing if you aren't scoring. If not for Brent Cimaglia having a strong start to his season, the Vols would be scoring significantly fewer points per game.

So what does all this mean? Nothing. Not a thing. For their current season averages, the Vols are better than last year. How can that be though, right? Well, the answer is quite simple. Tennessee won one more game in 2018 and essentially collapsed down the stretch. Meanwhile, Tennessee this season has been steadily improving and, as a young team, should continue to improve. If they do so, there's no reason for them to collapse. While South Carolina and Missouri should be tough opponents, other than Alabama there's no reason to think Tennessee can't win five of the six remaining games with continued improvement and decent health.

Today against Mississippi State, we saw the best Tennessee defense we've seen in quite some time against an SEC foe. The offense, while not necessarily explosive, was able to keep the defense fresh and could have had another six to fourteen points if not for turnovers. The scoreboard doesn't entirely tell the tale for how soundly Tennessee manhandled Mississippi State.

Let's consider the remainder of the schedule:

Alabama: I'm not going to spend much time here. Alabama might not be as good defensively as the past few seasons, but they are an offensive juggernaut. They are beating opponents 51-17 and SEC opponents 51-27.3 per game. Tennessee should consider it a good day if they keep the game within 21 points because only one team has managed to do that all season.

South Carolina: I don't know who this Gamecocks squad is yet. Are they the team who lost to Missouri 34-14 or the one that beat Georgia 20-17? The Gamecocks are 3-3 and that record reflects how inconsistent they've been. Maybe the Florida game clears things up. Probably not though. Your guess is as good as mine as to how this game goes.

UAB: The Blazers are 4-1 and should be 5-1 by the end of the day today. Good for them. They haven't played anyone of consequence. Tennessee should be too much for them as long as the Vols show up to play.

Kentucky: Mississippi State beat Kentucky by 15. The Wildcats are losing 10-0 to Arkansas as I write this. Kentucky may not win an SEC game this season. They simply haven't recovered from the Florida loss, and it seems like everyone has their number now.

Missouri: The Tigers should be 5-1 by the end of the day. They are playing excellent football since week one. Week one did still see them lose to Wyoming and Kelly Bryant is the key to that offense right now. If Bryant is healthy, this one is pretty tough. If he's not, this becomes a very different ball game.

Vanderbilt: On the one hand, you shouldn't sleep on a team that has been beating you like Vanderbilt has. On the other hand, Vanderbilt has been pretty awful and struggled to get their one win over Northern Illinois. They lost to UNLV today in an uncompetitive game. If the Vols lose this one, it might just overtake Georgia State as the worst loss of the season.

A realistic finish right now might be 5-7, but it's not inconceivable the Vols could get to 7-5. It would take a lot of breaks going their way, but this team is getting it figured out now and if they can keep forcing turnovers and negative plays, they can make their own breaks as they finish out the season. The one thing they simply cannot afford to do is fade again. They need to make November theirs again this season and close the year out strong. It's certainly possible they can do just that.