It's no great secret that Tennessee has struggled to run the ball consistently since the departure of Alvin Kamara in 2016. They've been in the bottom three in rushing yards ever since in the SEC, and they haven't been able to run for more than 15 touchdowns in a season since that time. Some of them looked to the offensive line for the answers. Others think it's the running backs. Still more eyeball the coaching as the problem. None of them are necessarily the complete answer, but they are all part of the issue ailing the Volunteers right now.
The offensive line in Knoxville is just finally beginning to get its feet under it in 2019, but despite what some would like to think those 2015 and 2016 offensive lines weren't overpowering juggernauts either. Tennessee was blessed with a spectacular athlete at quarterback as well as a nice stable of running backs that made the offensive line look good even when they weren't playing that way. Josh Dobbs, Alvin Kamara, John Kelly, and Jalen Hurd were simply excellent runners out of the backfield, so they could create even when things broke down with the blocking. Things haven't gotten as bad as they were in 2011 (although you'd probably have to try to get back to that level of rushing incompetence), but they are certainly as lean as they've been since that point. In the last two seasons, it was easier to point the finger at the offensive line and say they were the problem, but a significant reduction in the tackles for loss allowed makes this issue a bit foggier. The running backs aren't taking as many hits in the backfield, yet the numbers haven't shown any significant improvement, and when it comes to touchdowns they've gotten worse.
At running back, there's a distinct difference in the group from last season: there are no bigger guys in the mix. Jeremy Banks and Madre London helped do some of the heavy lifting last season, combining for 391 yards and 6 touchdowns. Other than those two, the rest of the team only accounted for 9 rushing touchdowns. Both over 210 pounds at 6-1, none of the current Vols are anywhere close to that. With no power element in the running game, the backs are much more prone to being tackled easily between the tackles. Additionally, they have a habit of ad-libbing and going off-script, refusing to trust the holes that are there or hoping to break longer runs. While the Vols have tried to find a power element in former high school running back and current linebacker Quavaris Crouch, the results have been underwhelming at best and it hasn't been turned to as a reliable option by the staff. Ty Chandler has averaged 5 yards per carry in his three years and Tim Jordan has averaged 4, so don't think these are bad backs. Also, sacks are rolled into rushing totals, and the 77 sacks allowed so far in three years is 77 negative yardage plays going against the rushing totals on top of the non-sack tackles for loss.
How about coaching? Well, we're on the third running back coach in three years, so considering neither Chandler nor Jordan has had the same running back coach for more than a year, I'll let you toss out a guess as to why that may not be conducive to consistent improvement. Robert Gillespie is a talented running back coach who got stuck in the nightmarish 2017 season. He landed on his feet at UNC and remained the running back coach there even through staff turnover. Meanwhile, Tennessee turned to former Heisman winner Chris Weinke to coach their running backs, a role he hadn't ever filled before. He's now the quarterback coach, so I'll let you draw your own conclusions on how well that experiment went over. Now, the current running back coach is David Johnson, who was initially hired to coach the wide receivers before the staff shuffling moved him back to the running back position, which he last coached at Tulane when he was in charge of both the running backs and tight ends, which was the job that launched him into his high level of successes with wide receivers at Memphis. The jury is still out on things this season because it's probably necessary to see him handle the position when there's finally a bigger back or two in the mix to provide some balance, especially since Ty Chandler is on pace for his most productive rushing season as a Vol and Tim Jordan is really only seeing a dip in his production due to a lack of use early in the season when the coaches were feeding true freshman Eric Gray.
"Why can't we run the ball?"
Yeah, I feel your pain. I really do. The answers lie somewhat in recruiting and transfers and coaching turnover and the blocking. The reality is this isn't going to be some easy fix. You need more balance in the backfield. The offensive line needs to continue progressing. A coach needs time to bring in his guys and develop them. The guys in place need time to learn an offense and from a coach so they aren't having to relearn every offseason. These are all things that can be taken care of. Just a matter of patience and putting in the work now.
Saturday, November 16, 2019
Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Jeremy Pruitt, Derrick Ansley, and the Resurgence of the Tennessee Defense
Welcome back, Orange Swarm. We missed you. Now, you might think I'm being a bit too effusive in my praise here, but hear me out because Tennessee is genuinely on the road to being the type of defense that ruins days in the SEC week in and week out. The eye test is obvious, right? I don't need to explain to you what your eyes are seeing. Instead, I'll dive into the numbers.
Let's begin with scoring defense, where the Vols are currently on pace for their best season in points per game allowed since 2015 when they held opponents to 20 points per outing. This season, they are holding foes to just 23 points a game despite giving up 29+ in five games this season. That's because in the other five, they haven't allowed more than 21 points and have allowed an average of 10.2 in their wins compared to 35.8 in their losses. The early season struggles against Georgia State and BYU can be attributed at least in part to youth, although the new defensive coordinator likely also caused some of those early growing pains. Now, it's true that Tennessee is only 9th in the SEC in scoring defense right now, but they are 41st nationally, so they are in the top third of the country in scoring defense, which is a testament to just how good the SEC is at defense.
Total defense is even crazier for the Vols right now. They are on the road to their best season in total defense since 2011 when they held opponents to just 340.5 yards per game. This season, 348.6 yards per outing is all opponents are able to muster. That's currently good for 8th in the SEC and 37th nationally. They are also 8th in the SEC in yards per play allowed at 5.2, which is tied for 39th nationally. That's the fewest yards per play allowed by the Vols since 2009.
When it comes to rushing defense, the Vols aren't quite as strong, but they are showing a slight improvement over last season (in spite of Kentucky going nuts) and are having their best season against the run since 2015. The yards per game number is fine, good for 10th in the SEC and 61st nationally, so very middle of the pack. However, Tennessee is only allowing 3.9 yards per carry, which is good for 50th nationally and 9th in the SEC. The 39.5 attempts per game they've faced is the second-most in the SEC and among the highest totals in the nation in attempts per game, so the Vols have had to hold opponents to that lower yards per carry average as teams are a bit hesitant to turn to the pass against Tennessee.
Now, why wouldn't teams want to pass against the Vols? Well, they are 6th in the SEC in pass defense and 28th nationally. They've tied with Auburn for 5th in the SEC in fewest passing touchdowns allowed, which is good for a tie for 25th in the nation. They are also tied for 2nd nationally in interceptions and tied for the lead in the SEC. Now, it's not all good news as the Vols are 9th in the SEC in yards per attempt allowed, 9th in completion percentage, and 8th in opponent quarterback rating, but even so the Vols have done more than enough to make opponents think twice about dropping back to pass.
The Vols are currently averaging 2.5 sacks per game, with 25 total, good for 3rd in the SEC and tied for 29th nationally. Their sack per game average is 5th in the SEC and 41st nationally. The Vols haven't had a pass rush like this since 2014 when Derek Barnett and Curt Maggit combined for 21 sacks on their own. Tennessee isn't quite that limited in the pass rush this season as 8 players have multiple sacks this season and 12 have recorded at least one.
The Vols have seen a drop-off this season in tackles for loss. That is very much a factor of those early-season struggles and an inexperienced group on the defensive line. Now, that said, their 51 tackles for loss is still currently good for 8th in the SEC (however, their 5.1 TFLs per game is just 11th in the SEC). The main issue is those first five games, where they had just 21 tackles for loss compared to the 30 they've racked up in the last five games. If the Vols can continue to be productive in making negative plays in the next two games (certainly possible as Vanderbilt and Missouri are among the SEC's worst at giving up tackles for loss), they might be able to finish with 63-65 tackles for loss, which would put them pretty close to last season's numbers.
When it comes to the secondary, the Vols have seen enormous improvements in this area. The Vols currently have their highest interception total since 2014, and at their current pace they could finish better than that. In fact, with a bowl game at this pace, they may well match 2010's 18 interceptions, the best total the Vols have had in the last decade. The Vols currently have 45 passes defended, tied for 5th in the SEC and 32nd nationally. They are tied with Clemson in passes defended per game nationally at 52nd and 11th in the SEC, but part of this is a factor of the Vols seeing the third-fewest passing attempts per game in the SEC and 23rd fewest nationally, so there will be correspondingly fewer opportunities to break up passes.
Forcing fumbles and recovering them hasn't been a particular strong suit of the Vol defense this season, but you'd rather get guys to the ground than give up extra yards to a runner trying to knock the ball loose. They've forced the second-fewest fumbles in the SEC and are tied with five other teams for the fewest recovered in the SEC.
What about blocking kicks, which is generally attributed to the defense? Well, they are tied for the SEC lead with Texas A&M and Alabama at 3 blocks, two of which turned into touchdowns and one which helped decide the Kentucky game yesterday by taking a game-tying field goal off the table for the Wildcats late. The Vols are tied for 8th nationally in blocked kicks as well.
Now, everything I've said so far is all well and good, but let's get into the nitty-gritty, right? Tennessee hasn't been great at getting off the field on third down, unfortunately, allowing opponents to convert on 42 percent of their attempts, 13th worst in the SEC and an abysmal 89th nationally. Tennessee has improved on this over the last three games, but not nearly as much as you'd like to see.
The news on fourth down conversions is better, as they have held opponents to converting just shy of 41%, good for 7th in the SEC and 26th nationally. Again, this is an area where the Vols began roughly on the season before turning things around.
In the red zone...well, let's play a game of good news, bad news. The good news is that opponents have only converted on 78.38% of their red zone trips, which is 6th in the SEC and 31st nationally. Bad news is that when the opponent has scored, it's almost always been a touchdown. 23 of 29 scoring trips in the red zone for opponents have been touchdowns, and the 23 red zone touchdowns allowed is 11th in the SEC and tied for 87th nationally. The Vols have killed themselves at times defending the red zone with dumb penalties.
That's all well and good, but how well is Tennessee doing at preventing the big play? Not so great when it comes to giving up plays of 10-19 yards where they are 11th in the SEC, but it gets a whole lot better after that. They are at least tied for 2nd or 1st in every other category from 20+ on this season. That is a big improvement on last season where the Vols were much easier to gash for big plays.
Tennessee isn't necessarily giving everyone fits yet, but they certainly appear to be on their way back and they are taking the fast lane there. The best news for Vol fans has to be the fact that they only lose three seniors from this defense, and they will get back redshirt senior to be Emmit Gooden after his season-ending injury and might also get back Baylen Buchanan if he can recover from a condition resulting in a narrowing of his spine. Darrell Taylor, Daniel Bituli, and Nigel Warrior won't be easy players to replace, but the Vols are recruiting well on defense and have a number of pieces already on the roster to build on this strong 2019 performance.
The real question is what brought us here? Why the strong improvement in 2019? Well, a couple of things happened. The Vols saw the departure of both of their secondary coaches and replaced them with their new defensive coordinator, Derrick Ansley. Ansley had just finished up his first NFL season coaching the Oakland secondary, but his history with Jeremy Pruitt and his first shot as a coordinator where simply too much to pass up. Pruitt and Ansley fully understand what the other is looking to accomplish.
In 2018, the Vols had a true co-coordinator situation in place with inside linebacker coach Kevin Sherrer and outside linebacker coach Chris Rumph sharing those duties, but with the hire of Ansley, there was a shuffling that took place. Sherrer lost his defensive coordinator duties and took over the job of coordinating the special teams (which he's done a masterful job with, but that's for another day) and Rumph, although still listed as a co-coordinator, really became that in name more than in practice as he has heavy involvement in the game planning during the week but no playcalling participation. Ansley is the playcaller and defensive coordinator, and he serves as an extension of Jeremy Pruitt's will. Now, you have two great defensive coordinators and a collection of successful defensive coaches guiding this team and improving their individual units every step of the way.
Let's begin with scoring defense, where the Vols are currently on pace for their best season in points per game allowed since 2015 when they held opponents to 20 points per outing. This season, they are holding foes to just 23 points a game despite giving up 29+ in five games this season. That's because in the other five, they haven't allowed more than 21 points and have allowed an average of 10.2 in their wins compared to 35.8 in their losses. The early season struggles against Georgia State and BYU can be attributed at least in part to youth, although the new defensive coordinator likely also caused some of those early growing pains. Now, it's true that Tennessee is only 9th in the SEC in scoring defense right now, but they are 41st nationally, so they are in the top third of the country in scoring defense, which is a testament to just how good the SEC is at defense.
Total defense is even crazier for the Vols right now. They are on the road to their best season in total defense since 2011 when they held opponents to just 340.5 yards per game. This season, 348.6 yards per outing is all opponents are able to muster. That's currently good for 8th in the SEC and 37th nationally. They are also 8th in the SEC in yards per play allowed at 5.2, which is tied for 39th nationally. That's the fewest yards per play allowed by the Vols since 2009.
When it comes to rushing defense, the Vols aren't quite as strong, but they are showing a slight improvement over last season (in spite of Kentucky going nuts) and are having their best season against the run since 2015. The yards per game number is fine, good for 10th in the SEC and 61st nationally, so very middle of the pack. However, Tennessee is only allowing 3.9 yards per carry, which is good for 50th nationally and 9th in the SEC. The 39.5 attempts per game they've faced is the second-most in the SEC and among the highest totals in the nation in attempts per game, so the Vols have had to hold opponents to that lower yards per carry average as teams are a bit hesitant to turn to the pass against Tennessee.
Now, why wouldn't teams want to pass against the Vols? Well, they are 6th in the SEC in pass defense and 28th nationally. They've tied with Auburn for 5th in the SEC in fewest passing touchdowns allowed, which is good for a tie for 25th in the nation. They are also tied for 2nd nationally in interceptions and tied for the lead in the SEC. Now, it's not all good news as the Vols are 9th in the SEC in yards per attempt allowed, 9th in completion percentage, and 8th in opponent quarterback rating, but even so the Vols have done more than enough to make opponents think twice about dropping back to pass.
The Vols are currently averaging 2.5 sacks per game, with 25 total, good for 3rd in the SEC and tied for 29th nationally. Their sack per game average is 5th in the SEC and 41st nationally. The Vols haven't had a pass rush like this since 2014 when Derek Barnett and Curt Maggit combined for 21 sacks on their own. Tennessee isn't quite that limited in the pass rush this season as 8 players have multiple sacks this season and 12 have recorded at least one.
The Vols have seen a drop-off this season in tackles for loss. That is very much a factor of those early-season struggles and an inexperienced group on the defensive line. Now, that said, their 51 tackles for loss is still currently good for 8th in the SEC (however, their 5.1 TFLs per game is just 11th in the SEC). The main issue is those first five games, where they had just 21 tackles for loss compared to the 30 they've racked up in the last five games. If the Vols can continue to be productive in making negative plays in the next two games (certainly possible as Vanderbilt and Missouri are among the SEC's worst at giving up tackles for loss), they might be able to finish with 63-65 tackles for loss, which would put them pretty close to last season's numbers.
When it comes to the secondary, the Vols have seen enormous improvements in this area. The Vols currently have their highest interception total since 2014, and at their current pace they could finish better than that. In fact, with a bowl game at this pace, they may well match 2010's 18 interceptions, the best total the Vols have had in the last decade. The Vols currently have 45 passes defended, tied for 5th in the SEC and 32nd nationally. They are tied with Clemson in passes defended per game nationally at 52nd and 11th in the SEC, but part of this is a factor of the Vols seeing the third-fewest passing attempts per game in the SEC and 23rd fewest nationally, so there will be correspondingly fewer opportunities to break up passes.
Forcing fumbles and recovering them hasn't been a particular strong suit of the Vol defense this season, but you'd rather get guys to the ground than give up extra yards to a runner trying to knock the ball loose. They've forced the second-fewest fumbles in the SEC and are tied with five other teams for the fewest recovered in the SEC.
What about blocking kicks, which is generally attributed to the defense? Well, they are tied for the SEC lead with Texas A&M and Alabama at 3 blocks, two of which turned into touchdowns and one which helped decide the Kentucky game yesterday by taking a game-tying field goal off the table for the Wildcats late. The Vols are tied for 8th nationally in blocked kicks as well.
Now, everything I've said so far is all well and good, but let's get into the nitty-gritty, right? Tennessee hasn't been great at getting off the field on third down, unfortunately, allowing opponents to convert on 42 percent of their attempts, 13th worst in the SEC and an abysmal 89th nationally. Tennessee has improved on this over the last three games, but not nearly as much as you'd like to see.
The news on fourth down conversions is better, as they have held opponents to converting just shy of 41%, good for 7th in the SEC and 26th nationally. Again, this is an area where the Vols began roughly on the season before turning things around.
In the red zone...well, let's play a game of good news, bad news. The good news is that opponents have only converted on 78.38% of their red zone trips, which is 6th in the SEC and 31st nationally. Bad news is that when the opponent has scored, it's almost always been a touchdown. 23 of 29 scoring trips in the red zone for opponents have been touchdowns, and the 23 red zone touchdowns allowed is 11th in the SEC and tied for 87th nationally. The Vols have killed themselves at times defending the red zone with dumb penalties.
That's all well and good, but how well is Tennessee doing at preventing the big play? Not so great when it comes to giving up plays of 10-19 yards where they are 11th in the SEC, but it gets a whole lot better after that. They are at least tied for 2nd or 1st in every other category from 20+ on this season. That is a big improvement on last season where the Vols were much easier to gash for big plays.
Tennessee isn't necessarily giving everyone fits yet, but they certainly appear to be on their way back and they are taking the fast lane there. The best news for Vol fans has to be the fact that they only lose three seniors from this defense, and they will get back redshirt senior to be Emmit Gooden after his season-ending injury and might also get back Baylen Buchanan if he can recover from a condition resulting in a narrowing of his spine. Darrell Taylor, Daniel Bituli, and Nigel Warrior won't be easy players to replace, but the Vols are recruiting well on defense and have a number of pieces already on the roster to build on this strong 2019 performance.
The real question is what brought us here? Why the strong improvement in 2019? Well, a couple of things happened. The Vols saw the departure of both of their secondary coaches and replaced them with their new defensive coordinator, Derrick Ansley. Ansley had just finished up his first NFL season coaching the Oakland secondary, but his history with Jeremy Pruitt and his first shot as a coordinator where simply too much to pass up. Pruitt and Ansley fully understand what the other is looking to accomplish.
In 2018, the Vols had a true co-coordinator situation in place with inside linebacker coach Kevin Sherrer and outside linebacker coach Chris Rumph sharing those duties, but with the hire of Ansley, there was a shuffling that took place. Sherrer lost his defensive coordinator duties and took over the job of coordinating the special teams (which he's done a masterful job with, but that's for another day) and Rumph, although still listed as a co-coordinator, really became that in name more than in practice as he has heavy involvement in the game planning during the week but no playcalling participation. Ansley is the playcaller and defensive coordinator, and he serves as an extension of Jeremy Pruitt's will. Now, you have two great defensive coordinators and a collection of successful defensive coaches guiding this team and improving their individual units every step of the way.
Sunday, November 10, 2019
My Two Cents on Jarrett Guarantano
Yeah, this is going to be new. It's also going to be much more casual than the normal fare from me. Consider this a conversation of sorts. These are going to be opinion pieces, and sometimes I'll be calling out fans or players or coaches. Other times, I'll be pouring out praise. Maybe I'll be lamenting the NCAA or the rules or the refs. Maybe I'll be shouting "hallelujah!" about something. It's all about what strikes me at that moment.
For those of you who don't like Guaratano, cool. I don't need you to and I don't even want you to. That's your business. For those that like or at least respect him, also totally cool. Same deal. Feel the way you want to feel. I'm going to tell you what I think of the young man, and then I'm going to talk about reasons to tone things down a bit, with maybe just a sprinkling of statistical facts scattered throughout.
Jarrett Guarantano is an average to below-average quarterback with flashes of being above-average at times. He will periodically make a play that absolutely hurts your head trying to make sense of what he was thinking, but then he'll have games where he's throwing deep passes and finding his receivers and the defense can't stop him like he did with South Carolina, UTC, and Mississippi State. More often than not, you get the guy we saw play against UAB, Georgia State, and BYU who makes good and bad plays and doesn't win you the game but doesn't necessarily lose it for you either. He's just there and plays well enough to let you compete.
This is one of the toughest SOBs playing right now, at least physically. Opinions certainly vary on his mental makeup as far as toughness goes, either because of his body language at times or his seeming disinterest in past games when he wasn't playing, but physically, few players can take the abuse he has and keep on getting up and taking more. As for my take on his mental toughness, this is a young man who has received more than his fair share of abuse from fans as well as tough coaching, and rather than taking to the transfer portal and finding greener pastures, he's toughed it out and endured the criticism and, from some of the less pleasant members of the fan base, outright personal attacks.
How about production though? Well, Jarrett Guarantano has produced 1,402 passing yards on 62.1% completions for 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He's tied for 6th in the SEC in touchdowns and 7th in the SEC in completion percentage. He's also 9th in the conference in passing yards despite having lost some playing time to the two freshmen for the Vols, Brian Maurer and JT Shrout. How about those freshmen? Well, they've combined for 703 passing yards on 48% completions for 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. On the ground, all three have produced positive yardage rushing, with Maurer running for 48 yards and 2 touchdowns, Guarantano running for 31 yards, and Shrout running for 4 yards.
Now, this will be a bit speculative, but what if Guarantano had started all season? What if we take his stats right now but expand on those to estimate what he might have done without the lost snaps? For the purposes of this, I'll limit this to the 268 passing attempts that the Vols have had thus far and just apply his completion percentage, yards per completion/attempt, and touchdowns per attempt numbers. That gives us 167 completions for 2,224 yards and 21 touchdowns. Hard to say whether or not he could have actually put up those numbers, but at 8.3 yards per completion and a touchdown for every 13 attempts, this is where we land.
More than anything, what Guarantano has done for the Vols over the last six games has been providing a steadying veteran presence amid the storms. Maurer may bring energy, but Guarantano off the bench has been able to focus that energy. That, as well as the defensive play, has been the key to the turnaround. Maurer was able to infuse new energy, but now Guarantano is the ringleader of this offense. More than at any point last year, he's making plays, not just managing the show. He's fourth in the SEC in quarterback rating. A year ago he was 8th despite playing significantly more.
None of this wipes away his mistakes. The bizarre decision on the goal line at Alabama, some early season poor passing decisions, and some poor body language at times all still happened. However, he has rebounded and come back as the best version of himself he has been in his four years in Knoxville. In a just world, we would have gotten a chance to see who Jarrett Guarantano might have become under more stable circumstances, but whether or not he returns next season one thing has become abundantly clear: he will be the quarterback who bridged the switch from Butch Jones to Jeremy Pruitt and the man who steered the offensive ship as Tennessee finally turned the corner under Pruitt.
To summarize: Guarantano has put up with a lot of crap, some warranted and some not. However, he's come through it stronger and the last few weeks is playing the best football of his career in Knoxville. Love him. Hate him. Fall somewhere in between. He doesn't seem to be a young man who cares much either way because he's just going to take the field and give his all for Tennessee.
Saturday, October 12, 2019
What to Make of Tennessee Through Six Games
Through six games, it's been mostly bad news where the record is concerned, but what about statistically? Well, there are areas of obvious improvement, areas of obvious regression, and probably a lot more in common with the first six games of last season than most would think. Tennessee's defense is pretty much on par with their defense from last season through six games and given they held two early-season opponents to under 200 yards of total offense, that means that the defense isn't getting beaten as badly against better opponents. The Vols gave up 422.5 yards per game to Auburn, Florida, West Virginia, and Georgia through six in 2018 while allowing just 164 per game to UTEP and ETSU. This season, Florida and Georgia did pile up the yards to the tune of 483.5 yards per game, but the other four games the Vols gave up just 296.25 per game. As far as averages go, the difference through six games in yards per game allowed is just 0.2 yards per game. The defense has just two fewer tackles for loss than last season, three more sacks, and double the turnovers through six games as opposed to last season. Long story made short, the defense is pretty much on par with last season's defense or better in some areas.
That must mean the issue is the offense, right? Yes and no. The offense is averaging 3.7 fewer points per game through six games and 8.8 fewer yards per game, but the yardage difference isn't statistically significant. The points are, and there is a direct correlation to explain the why behind it. It's turnovers. Tennessee had three turnovers through six games last season. This season, they've had 12. While Tennessee has forced more turnovers, they essentially have broken even in turnover margin this year compared to a 2:1 turnover margin through six last year. The offensive line is allowing fewer tackles for loss and pretty much the same number of sacks through six games, so the bottom line is these turnovers fall on the quarterbacks and skill position players. Now, the quarterbacks do have three more touchdowns so far this season compared to last season, but the running backs have six fewer touchdowns on the year. The inability of the running backs to punch it into the end zone is yet another factor in the downfall of the offense this season. Yardage is great, but it means nothing if you aren't scoring. If not for Brent Cimaglia having a strong start to his season, the Vols would be scoring significantly fewer points per game.
So what does all this mean? Nothing. Not a thing. For their current season averages, the Vols are better than last year. How can that be though, right? Well, the answer is quite simple. Tennessee won one more game in 2018 and essentially collapsed down the stretch. Meanwhile, Tennessee this season has been steadily improving and, as a young team, should continue to improve. If they do so, there's no reason for them to collapse. While South Carolina and Missouri should be tough opponents, other than Alabama there's no reason to think Tennessee can't win five of the six remaining games with continued improvement and decent health.
Today against Mississippi State, we saw the best Tennessee defense we've seen in quite some time against an SEC foe. The offense, while not necessarily explosive, was able to keep the defense fresh and could have had another six to fourteen points if not for turnovers. The scoreboard doesn't entirely tell the tale for how soundly Tennessee manhandled Mississippi State.
Let's consider the remainder of the schedule:
Alabama: I'm not going to spend much time here. Alabama might not be as good defensively as the past few seasons, but they are an offensive juggernaut. They are beating opponents 51-17 and SEC opponents 51-27.3 per game. Tennessee should consider it a good day if they keep the game within 21 points because only one team has managed to do that all season.
South Carolina: I don't know who this Gamecocks squad is yet. Are they the team who lost to Missouri 34-14 or the one that beat Georgia 20-17? The Gamecocks are 3-3 and that record reflects how inconsistent they've been. Maybe the Florida game clears things up. Probably not though. Your guess is as good as mine as to how this game goes.
UAB: The Blazers are 4-1 and should be 5-1 by the end of the day today. Good for them. They haven't played anyone of consequence. Tennessee should be too much for them as long as the Vols show up to play.
Kentucky: Mississippi State beat Kentucky by 15. The Wildcats are losing 10-0 to Arkansas as I write this. Kentucky may not win an SEC game this season. They simply haven't recovered from the Florida loss, and it seems like everyone has their number now.
Missouri: The Tigers should be 5-1 by the end of the day. They are playing excellent football since week one. Week one did still see them lose to Wyoming and Kelly Bryant is the key to that offense right now. If Bryant is healthy, this one is pretty tough. If he's not, this becomes a very different ball game.
Vanderbilt: On the one hand, you shouldn't sleep on a team that has been beating you like Vanderbilt has. On the other hand, Vanderbilt has been pretty awful and struggled to get their one win over Northern Illinois. They lost to UNLV today in an uncompetitive game. If the Vols lose this one, it might just overtake Georgia State as the worst loss of the season.
A realistic finish right now might be 5-7, but it's not inconceivable the Vols could get to 7-5. It would take a lot of breaks going their way, but this team is getting it figured out now and if they can keep forcing turnovers and negative plays, they can make their own breaks as they finish out the season. The one thing they simply cannot afford to do is fade again. They need to make November theirs again this season and close the year out strong. It's certainly possible they can do just that.
That must mean the issue is the offense, right? Yes and no. The offense is averaging 3.7 fewer points per game through six games and 8.8 fewer yards per game, but the yardage difference isn't statistically significant. The points are, and there is a direct correlation to explain the why behind it. It's turnovers. Tennessee had three turnovers through six games last season. This season, they've had 12. While Tennessee has forced more turnovers, they essentially have broken even in turnover margin this year compared to a 2:1 turnover margin through six last year. The offensive line is allowing fewer tackles for loss and pretty much the same number of sacks through six games, so the bottom line is these turnovers fall on the quarterbacks and skill position players. Now, the quarterbacks do have three more touchdowns so far this season compared to last season, but the running backs have six fewer touchdowns on the year. The inability of the running backs to punch it into the end zone is yet another factor in the downfall of the offense this season. Yardage is great, but it means nothing if you aren't scoring. If not for Brent Cimaglia having a strong start to his season, the Vols would be scoring significantly fewer points per game.
So what does all this mean? Nothing. Not a thing. For their current season averages, the Vols are better than last year. How can that be though, right? Well, the answer is quite simple. Tennessee won one more game in 2018 and essentially collapsed down the stretch. Meanwhile, Tennessee this season has been steadily improving and, as a young team, should continue to improve. If they do so, there's no reason for them to collapse. While South Carolina and Missouri should be tough opponents, other than Alabama there's no reason to think Tennessee can't win five of the six remaining games with continued improvement and decent health.
Today against Mississippi State, we saw the best Tennessee defense we've seen in quite some time against an SEC foe. The offense, while not necessarily explosive, was able to keep the defense fresh and could have had another six to fourteen points if not for turnovers. The scoreboard doesn't entirely tell the tale for how soundly Tennessee manhandled Mississippi State.
Let's consider the remainder of the schedule:
Alabama: I'm not going to spend much time here. Alabama might not be as good defensively as the past few seasons, but they are an offensive juggernaut. They are beating opponents 51-17 and SEC opponents 51-27.3 per game. Tennessee should consider it a good day if they keep the game within 21 points because only one team has managed to do that all season.
South Carolina: I don't know who this Gamecocks squad is yet. Are they the team who lost to Missouri 34-14 or the one that beat Georgia 20-17? The Gamecocks are 3-3 and that record reflects how inconsistent they've been. Maybe the Florida game clears things up. Probably not though. Your guess is as good as mine as to how this game goes.
UAB: The Blazers are 4-1 and should be 5-1 by the end of the day today. Good for them. They haven't played anyone of consequence. Tennessee should be too much for them as long as the Vols show up to play.
Kentucky: Mississippi State beat Kentucky by 15. The Wildcats are losing 10-0 to Arkansas as I write this. Kentucky may not win an SEC game this season. They simply haven't recovered from the Florida loss, and it seems like everyone has their number now.
Missouri: The Tigers should be 5-1 by the end of the day. They are playing excellent football since week one. Week one did still see them lose to Wyoming and Kelly Bryant is the key to that offense right now. If Bryant is healthy, this one is pretty tough. If he's not, this becomes a very different ball game.
Vanderbilt: On the one hand, you shouldn't sleep on a team that has been beating you like Vanderbilt has. On the other hand, Vanderbilt has been pretty awful and struggled to get their one win over Northern Illinois. They lost to UNLV today in an uncompetitive game. If the Vols lose this one, it might just overtake Georgia State as the worst loss of the season.
A realistic finish right now might be 5-7, but it's not inconceivable the Vols could get to 7-5. It would take a lot of breaks going their way, but this team is getting it figured out now and if they can keep forcing turnovers and negative plays, they can make their own breaks as they finish out the season. The one thing they simply cannot afford to do is fade again. They need to make November theirs again this season and close the year out strong. It's certainly possible they can do just that.
Monday, September 2, 2019
The Recipe for Recovery after GSU
I won't rehash the loss any more than I have to. It was arguably the lowest low for a program that has been discovering new lows with decent frequency for the last decade. The question then becomes one of whether or not the team, not the program but this team, can recover within a week before facing off against a good BYU team. Obviously, I won't tell you that these things will happen, but these are the things that this writer believes needs to happen if this team is going to settle down and bounce back from this devastating loss.
Let's begin with the coaching. You have to decide who your starters are and make sure that those starters are ready to play. There can't be some nonsensical rotation where 10-11 players are considered potential starters and you divide your time and attention between all of them when preparing for a game. When everyone is a starter, you have no starters. You have no depth chart. You have no continuity. That was painfully apparent on Saturday. Based on the newest depth chart released for the BYU game week, they have starters and hopefully they'll stop rotating players so heavily that nobody can find any rhythm or comfort level.
Speaking of rotating, stop doing it to experiment with different looks during a game. That is serving no one. Not the players, not the fans, and not the outcome of the game. Frankly, it made the staff look more than a little silly and left the impression that the staff hadn't prepared this team appropriately because no one had been able to emerge and establish themselves. Heaven forbid you not keep an eye on the roster because it was probably your only hope of knowing who was on the field at the time. Oh, and those too many men on the field issues? Rotate less and that stops being an issue.
You cannot prepare 85 guys equally to play. It's just not realistic. Toss in walk-ons and we're up to 115 and that's spreading yourself miserably thin trying to get a roster ready to play. Identify your starters. They get the most attention. Your second string gets a decent amount of attention, but a little less. Beyond that, you shouldn't need to rely on them much anyway, so coach them but don't spend much time on integrating them into the game planning and game preparation.
No opponent is unimportant. Saying it to the press sounds all well and good, but it's painfully obvious that it was lip service based on what everyone saw last weekend. Until this roster is both mentally and physically at a point where they can walk all over most teams, you are not good enough to overlook an opponent. It will never be said aloud, but that is precisely what happened with GSU. Georgia State was a couple days of prep before turning the attention to BYU. Well, that backfired pretty resoundingly.
Stop pretending like you're playing chess. You aren't going to use every play in your playbook ever, but going so simple as to become predictable is ridiculous. The game plan was garbage. You showed nothing as planned, and it bit you squarely on the keister. If that was the goal, well done. If the goal is to win, find your plays each week regardless of how complex they are in order to best attack the opponent and stop pretending that being basic for a week or two is going to be the key to beating Florida. The key to beating anyone is execution and game planning. Not sitting on plays until you think you can pull out the big surprise to beat someone.
Finally, even if you find yourselves as a staff at a loss as to what to do to motivate the players or get them to execute, you simply cannot reflect that with your body language. In the film Remember the Titans, the line is uttered: "attitude reflects leadership, captain", and that's significantly truer when referring to the coaches. If the team is demoralized and quitting, guess who gets to own that? Don't throw your hands up. Don't shrug your shoulder. Don't drop your head. You are who they are looking to. Be a leader in every sense.
Players, you don't get a pass. Before diving into individual units or singular performances, to the team as a whole: don't you dare quit on your teammates, your coaches, your fans, or your school again, but more than that don't you even think about quitting on yourselves one more time. The fact that many of us would give up years of our lives for one chance to run through that T, take the field in the Orange and White, and give our all for Tennessee just once notwithstanding, you owe yourselves and your teammates more than giving up because it gets hard. Don't drop your head and lay down playing dead for any opponent, least of all this one. The hell with owing it to us fans. You owe it to your brothers on the field and yourselves. Don't give yourselves a reason to look back on these moments with regret, and don't give any NFL staffs a reason to doubt your fire.
Jarrett Guarantano, you have been much discussed. I'm not here to pile on and suggest you should be benched or blah, blah, blah. I am going to make a couple of statements and then move on. Find your leadership style. Vocal, by actions, whatever that may look like, you need to find it, stick to it, and be the guy that offense rallies around when times get tough. Trust your offensive line. I know that one is tough to do, but you have to trust them so that you can run through your progressions, stop either running or dumping the pass off to your outlet guy because of perceived pressure, etc. The offense can't progress as long as the quarterback is running the show under duress, whether or not the pressure is real. Trust what Chaney has taught you. Change plays and protections accordingly. Don't be afraid to assert that authority given to you by your offensive coordinator and head coach. They've entrusted you with it because they believe in you. Take that to heart. You are the heart of the offense. It will only be as good as you enable it to be.
Running backs: secure the ball. I don't care which running back it is. You cannot put the ball on the ground. The running game has to be reliable enough to keep defenses honest, and that simply cannot happen when the coaches are afraid to put the ball in the hands of their best backs. You also need to trust your blockers. Trust your vision out there. If the hole isn't there, find the gap in the defense or take what's available, but you cannot bail on the running lane just because you don't trust what you're seeing. Secure the ball, whether it's a passing play or a running play. Then worry about yardage. You can't gain an inch without the ball in hand.
Receivers...well...yeah. You were pretty much fine for most of the game. Keep that up. Make sure you keep watching the ball into your hands because there were a couple of missed connections that didn't have to be missed, but all in all, solid day for arguably the best position group. Continue working hard and making plays.
Now, that prior note included Dominick Wood-Anderson, but to the rest of the tight ends, he can't do it alone. Jacob Warren. Sean Brown. Jackson Lowe. One of you guys needs to emerge as an additional passing threat and legitimate blocker because the seven offensive lineman thing is too telegraphed and isn't a sustainable formation to be used. It would be preferable that they can use a similar look with a pair of eligible receivers out there.
Offensive line, you honestly didn't have the worst day for three quarters. Heck, it wasn't even the worst I've seen as a whole because you weren't responsible for some of those sacks. Once you know who the starting five or top eight OLs are though, understand that these are your best friends. They are your brothers and you are inseparably close. Outside of classes and sleep, y'all spend your time together. You work on signals and chemistry and timing until you know what one another is thinking with a glance at each other. The quarterback and the running backs are your younger siblings or nephews or little cousins, you choose. You don't let anyone hurt them, and if someone has the audacity to touch them it's on you to make them pay for it.
To the defensive line, you have to know where to line up, fire off the line, and even if you're wrong, be wrong at full speed. The only cure for inexperience is to line up and play, making mistakes along the way. That said, everyone cannot be listed as a starter and anyone feel comfortable, and a rotation that's so heavy that you can't get into a rhythm isn't helpful. Still, whoever is on the field at the time has to attack like their name is Bobby Boucher. Break faces out there. Make the offensive line regret taking the field.
Inside linebackers, I know it sucks not having Bituli out there to help with getting guys lined up. I know it's all a bit new, especially for you, Henry To'o To'o. It's going to get easier, but until it does you just need to seek and destroy because attacking the offense has never gotten a defender in trouble. Make plays, whether you did your job right or not, until you get the assignments down. Don't overthink it. Football is still just football.
Outside linebackers, you had moments. Bennett, Johnson, both of you got after it and made some plays behind the line of scrimmage. Keep doing that. Taylor, aside from that nice play in coverage you'll need to get going, but we've seen that you have that talent. Until the younger guys get caught up, it's up to you three to provide that OLB pass rush. Things should be freed up once the staff begins rolling out the blitzes and stunts.
Secondary, mixed bag, right? Warren Burrell, you got tossed into a no-win situation due to circumstances off the field. The same more or less happened to you as well, Alontae Taylor, as a three-man rotation was trimmed down to two, more or less. Shawn Shamburger, build on that strong game of yours. Make the Star position your own. Safeties, we need better as a whole. If the corners are probably not going to have a chance to rotate, it's going to be up to you guys to provide them the necessary support when they start getting tired or get beat by the receivers. Support one another. That's how being a team works.
Specialists, I don't really have any notes. Keep up the good work. You all kicked great, the snaps looked crisp, no flubbed holds. Returners, same as I said about the running backs. Secure the ball. Then worry about everything else. If you fumble and lose it, no one will remember the return. Just the turnover.
BYU is solid, but they aren't unbeatable. Winning or losing is all going to fall on execution by the coaches and players. There's no excuse for what happened. There's no reason it should continue happening. There's plenty of talent. There's enough experience on the roster to win games. This staff has set winning expectations at every stop until now. Put up or shut up time. Get it right and beat BYU. It won't forgive everything, but it's a place to start.
Let's begin with the coaching. You have to decide who your starters are and make sure that those starters are ready to play. There can't be some nonsensical rotation where 10-11 players are considered potential starters and you divide your time and attention between all of them when preparing for a game. When everyone is a starter, you have no starters. You have no depth chart. You have no continuity. That was painfully apparent on Saturday. Based on the newest depth chart released for the BYU game week, they have starters and hopefully they'll stop rotating players so heavily that nobody can find any rhythm or comfort level.
Speaking of rotating, stop doing it to experiment with different looks during a game. That is serving no one. Not the players, not the fans, and not the outcome of the game. Frankly, it made the staff look more than a little silly and left the impression that the staff hadn't prepared this team appropriately because no one had been able to emerge and establish themselves. Heaven forbid you not keep an eye on the roster because it was probably your only hope of knowing who was on the field at the time. Oh, and those too many men on the field issues? Rotate less and that stops being an issue.
You cannot prepare 85 guys equally to play. It's just not realistic. Toss in walk-ons and we're up to 115 and that's spreading yourself miserably thin trying to get a roster ready to play. Identify your starters. They get the most attention. Your second string gets a decent amount of attention, but a little less. Beyond that, you shouldn't need to rely on them much anyway, so coach them but don't spend much time on integrating them into the game planning and game preparation.
No opponent is unimportant. Saying it to the press sounds all well and good, but it's painfully obvious that it was lip service based on what everyone saw last weekend. Until this roster is both mentally and physically at a point where they can walk all over most teams, you are not good enough to overlook an opponent. It will never be said aloud, but that is precisely what happened with GSU. Georgia State was a couple days of prep before turning the attention to BYU. Well, that backfired pretty resoundingly.
Stop pretending like you're playing chess. You aren't going to use every play in your playbook ever, but going so simple as to become predictable is ridiculous. The game plan was garbage. You showed nothing as planned, and it bit you squarely on the keister. If that was the goal, well done. If the goal is to win, find your plays each week regardless of how complex they are in order to best attack the opponent and stop pretending that being basic for a week or two is going to be the key to beating Florida. The key to beating anyone is execution and game planning. Not sitting on plays until you think you can pull out the big surprise to beat someone.
Finally, even if you find yourselves as a staff at a loss as to what to do to motivate the players or get them to execute, you simply cannot reflect that with your body language. In the film Remember the Titans, the line is uttered: "attitude reflects leadership, captain", and that's significantly truer when referring to the coaches. If the team is demoralized and quitting, guess who gets to own that? Don't throw your hands up. Don't shrug your shoulder. Don't drop your head. You are who they are looking to. Be a leader in every sense.
Players, you don't get a pass. Before diving into individual units or singular performances, to the team as a whole: don't you dare quit on your teammates, your coaches, your fans, or your school again, but more than that don't you even think about quitting on yourselves one more time. The fact that many of us would give up years of our lives for one chance to run through that T, take the field in the Orange and White, and give our all for Tennessee just once notwithstanding, you owe yourselves and your teammates more than giving up because it gets hard. Don't drop your head and lay down playing dead for any opponent, least of all this one. The hell with owing it to us fans. You owe it to your brothers on the field and yourselves. Don't give yourselves a reason to look back on these moments with regret, and don't give any NFL staffs a reason to doubt your fire.
Jarrett Guarantano, you have been much discussed. I'm not here to pile on and suggest you should be benched or blah, blah, blah. I am going to make a couple of statements and then move on. Find your leadership style. Vocal, by actions, whatever that may look like, you need to find it, stick to it, and be the guy that offense rallies around when times get tough. Trust your offensive line. I know that one is tough to do, but you have to trust them so that you can run through your progressions, stop either running or dumping the pass off to your outlet guy because of perceived pressure, etc. The offense can't progress as long as the quarterback is running the show under duress, whether or not the pressure is real. Trust what Chaney has taught you. Change plays and protections accordingly. Don't be afraid to assert that authority given to you by your offensive coordinator and head coach. They've entrusted you with it because they believe in you. Take that to heart. You are the heart of the offense. It will only be as good as you enable it to be.
Running backs: secure the ball. I don't care which running back it is. You cannot put the ball on the ground. The running game has to be reliable enough to keep defenses honest, and that simply cannot happen when the coaches are afraid to put the ball in the hands of their best backs. You also need to trust your blockers. Trust your vision out there. If the hole isn't there, find the gap in the defense or take what's available, but you cannot bail on the running lane just because you don't trust what you're seeing. Secure the ball, whether it's a passing play or a running play. Then worry about yardage. You can't gain an inch without the ball in hand.
Receivers...well...yeah. You were pretty much fine for most of the game. Keep that up. Make sure you keep watching the ball into your hands because there were a couple of missed connections that didn't have to be missed, but all in all, solid day for arguably the best position group. Continue working hard and making plays.
Now, that prior note included Dominick Wood-Anderson, but to the rest of the tight ends, he can't do it alone. Jacob Warren. Sean Brown. Jackson Lowe. One of you guys needs to emerge as an additional passing threat and legitimate blocker because the seven offensive lineman thing is too telegraphed and isn't a sustainable formation to be used. It would be preferable that they can use a similar look with a pair of eligible receivers out there.
Offensive line, you honestly didn't have the worst day for three quarters. Heck, it wasn't even the worst I've seen as a whole because you weren't responsible for some of those sacks. Once you know who the starting five or top eight OLs are though, understand that these are your best friends. They are your brothers and you are inseparably close. Outside of classes and sleep, y'all spend your time together. You work on signals and chemistry and timing until you know what one another is thinking with a glance at each other. The quarterback and the running backs are your younger siblings or nephews or little cousins, you choose. You don't let anyone hurt them, and if someone has the audacity to touch them it's on you to make them pay for it.
To the defensive line, you have to know where to line up, fire off the line, and even if you're wrong, be wrong at full speed. The only cure for inexperience is to line up and play, making mistakes along the way. That said, everyone cannot be listed as a starter and anyone feel comfortable, and a rotation that's so heavy that you can't get into a rhythm isn't helpful. Still, whoever is on the field at the time has to attack like their name is Bobby Boucher. Break faces out there. Make the offensive line regret taking the field.
Inside linebackers, I know it sucks not having Bituli out there to help with getting guys lined up. I know it's all a bit new, especially for you, Henry To'o To'o. It's going to get easier, but until it does you just need to seek and destroy because attacking the offense has never gotten a defender in trouble. Make plays, whether you did your job right or not, until you get the assignments down. Don't overthink it. Football is still just football.
Outside linebackers, you had moments. Bennett, Johnson, both of you got after it and made some plays behind the line of scrimmage. Keep doing that. Taylor, aside from that nice play in coverage you'll need to get going, but we've seen that you have that talent. Until the younger guys get caught up, it's up to you three to provide that OLB pass rush. Things should be freed up once the staff begins rolling out the blitzes and stunts.
Secondary, mixed bag, right? Warren Burrell, you got tossed into a no-win situation due to circumstances off the field. The same more or less happened to you as well, Alontae Taylor, as a three-man rotation was trimmed down to two, more or less. Shawn Shamburger, build on that strong game of yours. Make the Star position your own. Safeties, we need better as a whole. If the corners are probably not going to have a chance to rotate, it's going to be up to you guys to provide them the necessary support when they start getting tired or get beat by the receivers. Support one another. That's how being a team works.
Specialists, I don't really have any notes. Keep up the good work. You all kicked great, the snaps looked crisp, no flubbed holds. Returners, same as I said about the running backs. Secure the ball. Then worry about everything else. If you fumble and lose it, no one will remember the return. Just the turnover.
BYU is solid, but they aren't unbeatable. Winning or losing is all going to fall on execution by the coaches and players. There's no excuse for what happened. There's no reason it should continue happening. There's plenty of talent. There's enough experience on the roster to win games. This staff has set winning expectations at every stop until now. Put up or shut up time. Get it right and beat BYU. It won't forgive everything, but it's a place to start.
Sunday, August 25, 2019
Projected Week One Depth Chart
OFFENSE
- Quarterback
- Jarrett Guarantano, 6-4, 213, RJR
- J.T. Shrout, 6-3, 213, RFR
- Running back
- Ty Chandler, 5-11, 201, JR
- Tim Jordan, 5-11, 203, JR or Eric Gray, 5-10, 195, FR
- Wide receiver 1
- Marquez Callaway, 6-2, 204, SR
- Brandon Johnson, 6-2, 195, SR
- Wide receiver 2
- Jauan Jennings, 6-3, 208, RSR
- Jordan Murphy, 6-0, 180, JR
- Wide receiver 3
- Josh Palmer, 6-2, 195, JR
- Tyler Byrd, 5-11, 210, SR
- Tight end
- Dominick Wood-Anderson, 6-4, 257, SR
- Jacob Warren, 6-6, 241, RFR or Jackson Lowe, 6-4, 249, FR
- Left tackle
- Wanya Morris, 6-4, 313, FR
- Jahmir Johnson, 6-5, 285, RJR
- Left guard
- Jerome Carvin, 6-5, 313, SO
- Jahmir Johnson, 6-5, 285, RJR
- Center
- Brandon Kennedy, 6-3, 301, RSR
- Ryan Johnson, 6-6, 301, RJR
- Right guard
- K'Rojhn Calbert, 6-5, 330, RSO
- Riley Locklear, 6-4, 286, JR
- Right tackle
- Marcus Tatum, 6-6, 316, RJR
- Darnell Wright, 6-6, 330, FR
DEFENSE
- Defensive end
- Darel Middleton, 6-6, 311, JR
- John Mincey, 6-3, 271, SO
- Nose guard
- Greg Emerson, 6-3, 309, RFR
- Kurott Garland, 6-3, 304, RFR
- Defensive tackle
- Savion Williams, 6-4, 304, JR
- Matthew Butler, 6-4, 285, JR
- Jack linebacker
- Deandre Johnson, 6-3, 246, JR
- Kivon Bennett, 6-2, 248, RSO
- Will linebacker
- Henry To'o To'o, 6-2, 232, FR
- Shanon Reid, 6-0, 224, JR
- Mike linebacker
- Daniel Bituli, 6-3, 252, SR or Will Ignont, 6-1, 225
- J.J. Peterson, 6-2, 233, RFR
- Sam linebacker
- Darrell Taylor, 6-4, 255, RSR
- Quavaris Crouch, 6-1, 246, FR
- Cornerback 1
- Alontae Taylor, 6-0, 193, SO
- Kenneth George Jr., 5-11, 201, RJR
- Cornerback 2
- Warren Burrell, 6-0, 176, FR
- Terrell Bailey, 5-11, 188, RSO
- Star(nickel)
- Shawn Shamburger, 5-11, 187, JR
- Theo Jackson, 6-2, 190, JR
- Safety 1
- Nigel Warrior, 6-0, 190, SR
- Jaylen McCollough, 6-0, 204, FR
- Safety 2
- Trevon Flowers, 5-11, 193, SO
- Theo Jackson, 6-2, 190, JR
Obviously, there are a handful of notable names not listed here. For various reasons, Aubrey Solomon, Trey Smith, Bryce Thompson, and Daniel Bituli, all probable starters if available, have uncertain statuses heading into this week's game. If the status of any of these four individuals change and they are determined to be available, I'll provide an update to that effect. As is, this is a pretty solid guess as to the depth chart that we should see provided by the middle of this week.
Thursday, August 22, 2019
Vols Making Moves in Camp
Let me start by saying that I don't expect all of these guys to start, but there's a lot of reason to expect all of them to play some meaningful minutes this season. Now, a caveat: I don't intend to include any offensive linemen right now. The reason for that is things are still very much in flux on the offensive line and I could probably name ten guys I expect to make an impact this season, but how big that impact might be hinges heavily on who winds up where in that pecking order that doesn't exist yet. Some inconsistent performances this camp have also made things harder to call there.
Eric Gray - You would think it might go without saying that a guy who established state records and dominated the state as a running back might make an immediate impact, and yet there's a case to be made that heading into fall camp Gray was an afterthought at the running back position. Now, he's having the kind of lead-up to the season that should have Tim Jordan looking over his shoulder when it comes to getting touches out of the backfield. Where Ty Chandler is a speedster who can flat fly once he gets into the open field, Gray is more similar to Alvin Kamara, who wasn't the fastest back but was a nightmare to tackle because of his quick-twitch movements that prevented tacklers from getting clean hits in. Gray is also an excellent receiver and kick returner, so expect to see quite a bit of the freshman back this season.
Brandon Johnson - As a sophomore, Johnson looked like one of the most consistent receivers on the roster and was seemingly poised for a big junior season. That never materialized with the return of Jauan Jennings and emergence of Josh Palmer, and ultimately Johnson fell out of use and had arguably his worst season in Knoxville. If camp has been any indication, Johnson has absolutely no intentions of repeating last year's struggles as a senior. He's at minimum returned to his sophomore form, and with improvement in the strength and conditioning program, has likely exceeded where he's been at any point in the past. Johnson is right there as one of the first two guys off the bench when the staff wants to get Jennings, Palmer, or Callaway a breather, and with his experience, it's likely he would be the first man up if an injury occurred.
Jacob Warren - It's hard to say right now how much use Warren might get this season as part of the mix at tight end, and he could still find himself passed up by the freshmen, but Warren has become one of the more consistent options at tight end. He's bulked up for the position, and he is the tallest of the tight ends. After arriving looking like a wide receiver, he now looks the part of a tight end and is more than capable of holding his own as a receiver. There is still some reason for concern regarding his blocking, but with true freshmen Sean Brown and Jackson Lowe finding their heads swimming a bit and with Austin Pope and Andrew Craig looking more likely to fill an H-back role, Warrren has a very good chance to be the primary backup to Dominick Wood-Anderson.
Darel Middleton - Of the two JUCO defensive linemen who joined the team this summer, Middleton was more of an afterthought. He was a very large afterthought at 6-7, 311-pounds, but he wasn't necessarily expected to be a big contributor. Now, some are projecting he may be a starter and that's not a reach at all. Middleton doesn't always know what to do out there, but what he does do is attack quickly with a high motor. Sometimes you'd rather have a high-motor guy go out there doing the wrong thing as opposed to having someone do everything right but fail to make plays. Middleton now makes it two JUCO defensive linemen likely to make immediate impacts this fall.
Greg Emerson - A top defensive line recruit, a serious injury before his senior season essentially cost him two years as he was unable to play as a senior and essentially took most of a year to return to form, but he's getting there now and is another lineman poised to take over a starting role. The season-ending injury suffered by Emmit Gooden was a terrible loss but also an opportunity that Emerson has seized upon. A former high school defensive end, he brings an attacking, playmaking mindset to the nose tackle position.
Matthew Butler - Butler has carried a strong spring over into the summer, and he's probably sitting as a likely starter right now with Aubrey Solomon's status still uncertain. Butler wasn't the most heralded addition to the Vols, but all he's done since arriving is provide solid minutes as a reserve, biding his time until the opportunity came for an expanded role. Once that chance came for him, he took it by the reins and has shown no sign of fading away. Butler was a sack machine in high school and a return to anything close to that form is bad news for the SEC.
Henry To'o To'o - Summer enrollees rarely emerge as starters in the SEC. Henry To'o To'o isn't a typical SEC freshman, and right now he has the inside track on starting at Will linebacker for the Vols. In fact, his integration into the defense reminds me somewhat of Darrin Kirkland Jr.'s, but with one big difference: Kirkland didn't start week one. This is the type of player that the Vols have struggled to secure in recent years in recruiting and is a guy who will make a huge impact this season.
Quavaris Crouch - While he may not be currently poised to start, Crouch is certainly in a position to play significant minutes after shifting from inside linebacker, where he spent the spring, to outside linebacker. With Jordan Allen out indefinitely, one of the younger players must step up, and Crouch, with his spring jump, looks most likely to emerge as a key reserve.
Shawn Shamburger - Although he's been a regular contributor over the last two seasons, it appears Shamburger's time has finally come as he looks likely to at least begin the season as the starting Star (nickel). Baylen Buchanan's injury situation will keep him off the field indefinitely, which had the staff re-evaluating their plans at the position. They looked at a number of options, but Shamburger has made a strong case for the job. A possible factor in this could be Alontae Taylor, who is locked in a battle for his job at corner and could potentially become a more realistic option at Star if the staff elects to go with the final name on this list.
Warren Burrell - Never underestimate the importance of being on campus for spring football. Warren Burrell wasn't the most heralded recruit of the cycle by a long-shot, but here he is pushing for a starting job at corner. Burrell still doesn't always know exactly what he should be doing, but he does it all well, full speed, and with an eye on making plays. It's that playmaking ability that has him fighting for that job with Alontae Taylor. No matter who wins, expect all three to be big parts of the defense this season.
Eric Gray - You would think it might go without saying that a guy who established state records and dominated the state as a running back might make an immediate impact, and yet there's a case to be made that heading into fall camp Gray was an afterthought at the running back position. Now, he's having the kind of lead-up to the season that should have Tim Jordan looking over his shoulder when it comes to getting touches out of the backfield. Where Ty Chandler is a speedster who can flat fly once he gets into the open field, Gray is more similar to Alvin Kamara, who wasn't the fastest back but was a nightmare to tackle because of his quick-twitch movements that prevented tacklers from getting clean hits in. Gray is also an excellent receiver and kick returner, so expect to see quite a bit of the freshman back this season.
Brandon Johnson - As a sophomore, Johnson looked like one of the most consistent receivers on the roster and was seemingly poised for a big junior season. That never materialized with the return of Jauan Jennings and emergence of Josh Palmer, and ultimately Johnson fell out of use and had arguably his worst season in Knoxville. If camp has been any indication, Johnson has absolutely no intentions of repeating last year's struggles as a senior. He's at minimum returned to his sophomore form, and with improvement in the strength and conditioning program, has likely exceeded where he's been at any point in the past. Johnson is right there as one of the first two guys off the bench when the staff wants to get Jennings, Palmer, or Callaway a breather, and with his experience, it's likely he would be the first man up if an injury occurred.
Jacob Warren - It's hard to say right now how much use Warren might get this season as part of the mix at tight end, and he could still find himself passed up by the freshmen, but Warren has become one of the more consistent options at tight end. He's bulked up for the position, and he is the tallest of the tight ends. After arriving looking like a wide receiver, he now looks the part of a tight end and is more than capable of holding his own as a receiver. There is still some reason for concern regarding his blocking, but with true freshmen Sean Brown and Jackson Lowe finding their heads swimming a bit and with Austin Pope and Andrew Craig looking more likely to fill an H-back role, Warrren has a very good chance to be the primary backup to Dominick Wood-Anderson.
Darel Middleton - Of the two JUCO defensive linemen who joined the team this summer, Middleton was more of an afterthought. He was a very large afterthought at 6-7, 311-pounds, but he wasn't necessarily expected to be a big contributor. Now, some are projecting he may be a starter and that's not a reach at all. Middleton doesn't always know what to do out there, but what he does do is attack quickly with a high motor. Sometimes you'd rather have a high-motor guy go out there doing the wrong thing as opposed to having someone do everything right but fail to make plays. Middleton now makes it two JUCO defensive linemen likely to make immediate impacts this fall.
Greg Emerson - A top defensive line recruit, a serious injury before his senior season essentially cost him two years as he was unable to play as a senior and essentially took most of a year to return to form, but he's getting there now and is another lineman poised to take over a starting role. The season-ending injury suffered by Emmit Gooden was a terrible loss but also an opportunity that Emerson has seized upon. A former high school defensive end, he brings an attacking, playmaking mindset to the nose tackle position.
Matthew Butler - Butler has carried a strong spring over into the summer, and he's probably sitting as a likely starter right now with Aubrey Solomon's status still uncertain. Butler wasn't the most heralded addition to the Vols, but all he's done since arriving is provide solid minutes as a reserve, biding his time until the opportunity came for an expanded role. Once that chance came for him, he took it by the reins and has shown no sign of fading away. Butler was a sack machine in high school and a return to anything close to that form is bad news for the SEC.
Henry To'o To'o - Summer enrollees rarely emerge as starters in the SEC. Henry To'o To'o isn't a typical SEC freshman, and right now he has the inside track on starting at Will linebacker for the Vols. In fact, his integration into the defense reminds me somewhat of Darrin Kirkland Jr.'s, but with one big difference: Kirkland didn't start week one. This is the type of player that the Vols have struggled to secure in recent years in recruiting and is a guy who will make a huge impact this season.
Quavaris Crouch - While he may not be currently poised to start, Crouch is certainly in a position to play significant minutes after shifting from inside linebacker, where he spent the spring, to outside linebacker. With Jordan Allen out indefinitely, one of the younger players must step up, and Crouch, with his spring jump, looks most likely to emerge as a key reserve.
Shawn Shamburger - Although he's been a regular contributor over the last two seasons, it appears Shamburger's time has finally come as he looks likely to at least begin the season as the starting Star (nickel). Baylen Buchanan's injury situation will keep him off the field indefinitely, which had the staff re-evaluating their plans at the position. They looked at a number of options, but Shamburger has made a strong case for the job. A possible factor in this could be Alontae Taylor, who is locked in a battle for his job at corner and could potentially become a more realistic option at Star if the staff elects to go with the final name on this list.
Warren Burrell - Never underestimate the importance of being on campus for spring football. Warren Burrell wasn't the most heralded recruit of the cycle by a long-shot, but here he is pushing for a starting job at corner. Burrell still doesn't always know exactly what he should be doing, but he does it all well, full speed, and with an eye on making plays. It's that playmaking ability that has him fighting for that job with Alontae Taylor. No matter who wins, expect all three to be big parts of the defense this season.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)