Rumors had flown around prior to the SEC announcement of the new schedules for every SEC team in the new conference-only ten-game slate, with most of the chatter suggesting that the Vols were most likely to draw LSU and Ole Miss onto their schedule. That definitely did not happen, with the Vols landing a more difficult draw of Texas A&M and Auburn, leaving the Vols to play three of the top four teams in the SEC West preseason rankings. That on top of facing Florida, Georgia, and a Kentucky team that might prove to be the best in program history.
At first blush, it's hard not to feel like the Vols got hammered by the SEC with the scheduling, although it's clear that they didn't get blasted as badly as Missouri and Arkansas. Still, the new schedules have obviously set up easier for the elite programs in the conference like LSU, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida while offering up more difficult paths for teams trying to climb into the next echelon. Tennessee is hoping to build on an 8-5 finish to the 2019 season, but the road to improving on that winning percentage certainly didn't get any easier with the reduction in games and additions to the schedule.
However, I think there's another way to view these additions: an opportunity to establish the progress on the rebuild and fully affirm the future of Jeremy Pruitt as the Vol head coach. Listen, I'm not suggesting this is an easy path, but winning 7 or 8 games off of this schedule will mean improving on the 2019 winning percentage of 61.5% and would mean winning 2-3 games over ranked opponents at least. If the Vols truly believe they have a winning roster, then drawing more opportunities to prove it should be viewed as a good thing, not a bad one.
I'm not suggesting that the Vols wouldn't win more games if they drew Ole Miss and Mississippi State to the schedule, but I am suggesting that those wins wouldn't bolster the resume or offer up as much reason to believe that the Vols have advanced as a program. Tennessee has a chance to prove who they are. They have a chance to establish their expected dominance in the trenches. A redshirt senior quarterback and starting experience at receiver, along with dynamic options at running back. A defense that was stout last season and is only expected to get better in spite of losses. The time is theoretically now to prove that Pruitt has this team ready to compete at a high level.
I'm not suggesting this is an ideal situation, but nothing about 2020 has been ideal up to this point, and making the most of the cards you're dealt is going to be key. Tennessee could fixate on the difficult schedule or view it as a chance to re-establish themselves among the conference elite. It's unlikely that the conference was sitting there trying to figure out the best way to screw over any programs, but when you have only so many variables to work with some programs are simply going to get it worse than others, and if you're a conference that has theoretically four legitimate teams that might be able to compete for the playoff, you'll probably favor those schools. I doubt favoring Alabama, Georgia, Florida, or LSU was conscious but rather something that occurs in a room where everyone has a stake in the success of the best teams as the NCAA has yet to cancel Division I fall championships.
Basically, this isn't a conspiracy against Tennessee, Arkansas, or Missouri. This is at worst a consequence of scheduling to favor the elite teams in the conference, and more likely is a result of subconscious bias to try and help the conference as a whole by giving the teams with the best chances of bowl games (assuming those even happen) the best chance to make the best bowls possible. In theory, a winning record for the Vols against this schedule validates them as elite and gives them the chance at a higher bowl than 7-3 or 8-2 might normally warrant based on the strength of their wins.
I'm by no means trying to say that the schedule isn't difficult or that there aren't fewer likely wins on the schedule, but I'm arguing that there's a lot to be said for taking the hand dealt and trying to take the pot. On paper, this is the most complete team for the Vols in over a decade on both sides of the ball, so the time has come to step onto the field and prove it, and the loaded schedule gives them opportunities to announce their return in the form of upsets. Sure, an upset of Oklahoma or Florida or Georgia would have still meant plenty, but the Vols now have winnable games against Auburn and Texas A&M on paper, presumably catch Florida early, maybe even week one, and will still have a shot at Georgia. Alabama, at this point, seems like the biggest longshot for an upset, but win the five games the Vols should be expected to win and tack on 2-3 upset wins and who is going to be able to argue that this team hasn't made huge strides under Pruitt?
The bigger issue is whether or not this season will even take place at all, or at least on time. Football is a different beast than the NBA or NHL, and a bubble won't be viable, especially not at the college level. Positive tests will occur, and given the guidelines laid out by the SEC, it may not take too much to force a shift in policy and a postponement or cancellation of the season. The reality is that making college football happen in part requires everyone within their respective states to take this seriously and help keep the numbers down because conditions in the state itself are going to be a factor in keeping the season going. If a state decides that there is a public health emergency that makes football unsafe, the SEC will shut things down, so the best advice I can give is to wear your mask when you're out, don't be out if you don't have to be, and socially distance for the sake of the sports we all want to see happen.
If/when the season takes place, the Vols need to take advantage of the opportunity to pile on some quality wins like they did in 2018 without the slip-ups of early 2019 and prove that they're on the road to returning to prominence in the college football world under Jeremy Pruitt. If they can't do that, 2021 may end up being put up or shut up time for Pruitt, not as an indictment on his tenure thus far but due to the pressures that exist within the SEC overall. I suspect, one way or another, Pruitt gets through the 2022 season, but the odds of sustained success will drop with each passing season of underachieving.
Personally, I think the Vols have a good shot to manage 8-2 if the schedule lines up right and gives them Florida early. Auburn and Texas A&M don't especially scare me. The Aggies are notorious for underachievement and Auburn lost a lot from last season and have always been an up-and-down program that in theory should be heading into a down year. Florida is getting hit with opt-outs right now after already having to do a fair bit of reloading from the draft losses last year. Georgia has a monstrous defense but in spite of the transfers at quarterback have some serious question marks on offense, especially at wide receiver. The Vols gave the Tide fits for much of the game last year until a bad decision flipped the momentum for good, and they will look to try and compete again. There's no reason they shouldn't be able to compete throughout the season, so whining about the schedule, especially when we're going to be lucky to get football at all, is a huge waste of time, from my personal perspective. Anyway, that's just my two cents. Regardless, Go Vols! Here's hoping for the best with having football!
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