Sunday, November 10, 2019

My Two Cents on Jarrett Guarantano


Yeah, this is going to be new. It's also going to be much more casual than the normal fare from me. Consider this a conversation of sorts. These are going to be opinion pieces, and sometimes I'll be calling out fans or players or coaches. Other times, I'll be pouring out praise. Maybe I'll be lamenting the NCAA or the rules or the refs. Maybe I'll be shouting "hallelujah!" about something. It's all about what strikes me at that moment.

For those of you who don't like Guaratano, cool. I don't need you to and I don't even want you to. That's your business. For those that like or at least respect him, also totally cool. Same deal. Feel the way you want to feel. I'm going to tell you what I think of the young man, and then I'm going to talk about reasons to tone things down a bit, with maybe just a sprinkling of statistical facts scattered throughout.

Jarrett Guarantano is an average to below-average quarterback with flashes of being above-average at times. He will periodically make a play that absolutely hurts your head trying to make sense of what he was thinking, but then he'll have games where he's throwing deep passes and finding his receivers and the defense can't stop him like he did with South Carolina, UTC, and Mississippi State. More often than not, you get the guy we saw play against UAB, Georgia State, and BYU who makes good and bad plays and doesn't win you the game but doesn't necessarily lose it for you either. He's just there and plays well enough to let you compete.

This is one of the toughest SOBs playing right now, at least physically. Opinions certainly vary on his mental makeup as far as toughness goes, either because of his body language at times or his seeming disinterest in past games when he wasn't playing, but physically, few players can take the abuse he has and keep on getting up and taking more. As for my take on his mental toughness, this is a young man who has received more than his fair share of abuse from fans as well as tough coaching, and rather than taking to the transfer portal and finding greener pastures, he's toughed it out and endured the criticism and, from some of the less pleasant members of the fan base, outright personal attacks.

How about production though? Well, Jarrett Guarantano has produced 1,402 passing yards on 62.1% completions for 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He's tied for 6th in the SEC in touchdowns and 7th in the SEC in completion percentage. He's also 9th in the conference in passing yards despite having lost some playing time to the two freshmen for the Vols, Brian Maurer and JT Shrout. How about those freshmen? Well, they've combined for 703 passing yards on 48% completions for 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. On the ground, all three have produced positive yardage rushing, with Maurer running for 48 yards and 2 touchdowns, Guarantano running for 31 yards, and Shrout running for 4 yards.

Now, this will be a bit speculative, but what if Guarantano had started all season? What if we take his stats right now but expand on those to estimate what he might have done without the lost snaps? For the purposes of this, I'll limit this to the 268 passing attempts that the Vols have had thus far and just apply his completion percentage, yards per completion/attempt, and touchdowns per attempt numbers. That gives us 167 completions for 2,224 yards and 21 touchdowns. Hard to say whether or not he could have actually put up those numbers, but at 8.3 yards per completion and a touchdown for every 13 attempts, this is where we land.

More than anything, what Guarantano has done for the Vols over the last six games has been providing a steadying veteran presence amid the storms. Maurer may bring energy, but Guarantano off the bench has been able to focus that energy. That, as well as the defensive play, has been the key to the turnaround. Maurer was able to infuse new energy, but now Guarantano is the ringleader of this offense. More than at any point last year, he's making plays, not just managing the show. He's fourth in the SEC in quarterback rating. A year ago he was 8th despite playing significantly more.

None of this wipes away his mistakes. The bizarre decision on the goal line at Alabama, some early season poor passing decisions, and some poor body language at times all still happened. However, he has rebounded and come back as the best version of himself he has been in his four years in Knoxville. In a just world, we would have gotten a chance to see who Jarrett Guarantano might have become under more stable circumstances, but whether or not he returns next season one thing has become abundantly clear: he will be the quarterback who bridged the switch from Butch Jones to Jeremy Pruitt and the man who steered the offensive ship as Tennessee finally turned the corner under Pruitt.

To summarize: Guarantano has put up with a lot of crap, some warranted and some not. However, he's come through it stronger and the last few weeks is playing the best football of his career in Knoxville. Love him. Hate him. Fall somewhere in between. He doesn't seem to be a young man who cares much either way because he's just going to take the field and give his all for Tennessee.

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