Most seasons, I elect to do a preseason statistical prediction article, in some form or fashion. I've opted to do it again this year but with a bit less of a deep dive than in years past due to the unpredictability of this team. I'll give more general statistical ranges and less broken down numbers because it's rather difficult to pin this team down. I'll also either focus on team numbers or leaders in a particular category rather than estimating the numbers for every single player. It will still be thorough, but less in-depth than in past years. With that, here we go.
Passing
Jarrett Guarantano - 2,100 to 2,300 yards, 20-22 touchdowns, 8-10 interceptions
Team - 2,500 to 2,700 yards, 24-26 touchdowns, 10-12 interceptions
With the new redshirt rules, it's highly likely that every single scholarship quarterback sees some time passing, and my numbers could be way off if the prevailing belief that Guarantano wins the job and keeps it fails to pan out. Still, that isn't my biggest concern at this point. That remains the fact that I'm calling for a passing game that only managed 11 touchdowns against 10 interceptions to see such meaningful improvement, but it is very much one of those situations where it simply won't get worse. It's easy to think that I'm calling for a huge jump in passing yardage, but the Vols passed for over 2,000 yards last season, so it's still incremental improvement that I'm expecting in yardage. The touchdown to interception ratio is the big leap, but the talent looks to be there and as long as the development and maturity have come along as most believe things should play out fairly well for this level of improvement.
Rushing
Ty Chandler - 450 to 650 yards, 3-5 touchdowns, 4.5-4.7 yards per carry
Team - 1,800 to 2,000 yards, 18-20 touchdowns, 4.3-4.5 yards per carry
This may seem low to some people, but it's worth acknowledging that this is a 300-500 yard increase in the season rushing total. The offensive line looks improved and it's a good group of running backs, but if things are going to be handled as running back by committee I have a hard time seeing the running production being especially consistent. That isn't to say that they couldn't break 2,000 yards rushing on the season, but for that to happen I think someone has to fully take the reins at the position to become the #1 back. Ty Chandler is a strong candidate to make that happen, and Tim Jordan continues to impress when he gets his opportunities. Madre London, while impressive at times, probably isn't explosive enough to become the primary ball carrier. It's also worth noting that there is a lot of belief that the staff may get creative with how they use Chandler, so his rushing numbers may not be great, but I like him to have a shot at over 1,000 all-purpose yards. After all, Chandler did have 829 all-purpose yards last year, so he doesn't have to improve much or get that many more opportunities to make that happen.
Receiving
Brandon Johnson - 475-675 yards, 3-5 touchdowns, 12.5-14.5 yards per reception
Team - 2,400 to 2,700 yards, 24-26 touchdowns, 11-13 yards per reception
This one may come as a surprise to a lot of people with Callaway and Jennings back, but bear this in mind: Johnson led the team in receptions and receiving yards last season, and neither Callaway nor Jennings has led the team in receptions or receiving yards. Both are guys who will find the end zone plenty, and both could, and probably will outscore Johnson. What Johnson provides is a reliable target to the quarterback. When you have a number of solid receiving options, it tends to keep the numbers down for everyone. Even so, I think a strong season is a good possibility for Johnson. There is also going to be some rust for Jennings to knock off and Callaway was notoriously inconsistent last year. When Callaway and Jennings are at their best, they are making big plays that most other receivers aren't able to, and I would wager they'll keep that same trend going this season. It is very possible for the Vols to have 3-5 receivers over 350 receiving yards this season, and if so I would keep an eye on Johnson, Callaway, Jennings, Jordan Murphy, and Dominick Wood-Anderson to be the guys getting it done.
Total Offense
Team - 4,300-4,700 yards of total offense
I might actually be crazy for this one, but I simply expect major offensive improvement. How can one not after the offense had fewer than 3,500 yards of total offense a year ago? The mess that was the quarterback situation last year along with a battered and inconsistent offensive line doomed the Vols, but they head into this season with no major injuries and noticeable improvement at two of their major perceived weaknesses last season. John Kelly obviously won't be easily replaced, but the Vols have options with an apparent three-headed beast at running back, and there are no notable losses at wide receiver. There is, however, a noteworthy return at wideout with Jauan Jennings. It's too soon to say whether or not this optimism is undeserved, but right now things look promising for significant improvement. For any critics who would like to pretend like this prediction means winning seasons, I would point out that the 2017 versions of both Vanderbilt and Arkansas fall within this yardage range.
Total Points per Game
Team - 43-50 touchdowns, 15-18 field goals, 26-31 points per game
My thoughts here have changed from a couple days ago, and the logic behind that is that I actually like the potential of placekicker Brent Cimaglia to hit some deeper field goals and give the Vols a chance at points where they might have otherwise missed out on those points previously. I also think the Vols will have a chance at some defensive and special teams touchdowns. The Vols have two players on the roster who have registered return touchdowns and those two also ranked among the top four on kick and punt returns last season. Defensively, whenever a team increases their turnovers they increase the opportunities for defensive touchdowns. Two current Vols have interception return touchdowns (both now at linebacker) and at least two of their newcomers likely to see significant playing time in the secondary were largely recruited as offensive weapons in addition to their coverage skills.
Tackling
Daniel Bituli - 100-115 tackles, 8-10 tackles for loss, 1.5-3 sacks
For obvious reasons, I'm not going to both with team tackles because it's a pretty pointless stat and wildly difficult to gauge. However, the leading tackler is a pretty important measure of the leader of the defense. Bituli led the team in tackles last year and should be poised to do so again. In many ways, he's become the emotional center of the defense. Some would probably lean toward Darrin Kirkland Jr., but given his recent injury history and the fact that he's yet to lead the team in tackles in his three seasons, I opted to go with what appears to be the safer bet. Kirkland has been challenged at the weakside position by Quart'e Sapp, and I think those two talented linebackers will split time a lot more than Will Ignont will manage to steal minutes from Bituli.
Tackles for Loss
Jonathan Kongbo - 13-15 tackles for loss
Team - 80-85 tackles for loss
Often times, the leader in sacks for a team will also prove to be the leader in tackles for loss. On occasion, a linebacker is so disruptive that the sack leader simply can't keep up. Then there are those unique specimens at defensive tackle who are abnormally disruptive run defenders. Why Kongbo? Well, as a true defensive lineman, he was somewhat limited. Taking on blockers with little head of steam proved a limiter on his talents, but his talent was never really in question. Now with the shift to the Jack linebacker role, he will spend a fair bit of his time in a 2-point stance. Getting his hand out of the dirt and more room to pick up momentum as well as selecting and executing pass rush moves should ultimately enable him to create havoc. He struggled against the run last season because he struggled to beat blockers in those situations. He should find himself with fewer situations in which he has a blocker already on him as soon as the play begins. I think this is one category where the Vols make a big jump, having produced only 61 tackles for loss last season. Pruitt's defenses bring pressure, and that should lead to negative plays.
Sacks
Darrell Taylor - 7-9 sacks
Team - 25-30 sacks
Yeah, I know I said a lot of times the leader in sacks is also the leader in tackles for loss, but not this time. Darrell Taylor has always been insanely explosive, having played wide receiver in high school and retaining much of that athletic ability as he's added muscle to his frame. Working at the strongside linebacker position should give him plenty of pass rushing opportunities, and with Kongbo putting pressure on from one side, my belief is that the speedy Taylor will be able to take advantage of those situations. Kongbo should get his sacks, but I don't think he'll be able to get to those loftier numbers with offenses trying to gameplan around his pressure. I'm not calling for as big a jump here. Tennessee had 22 sacks last season, so my low-end improvement is only three sacks. Yes, if they reach the high-end of my prediction would be a pretty significant jump from last season, but right in line with their sack production in 2015 and 2016.
Passes Defended
Baylen Buchanan - 8-10 passes defended
Team - 50-55 passes defended
I'm in no way exaggerating when I say that Tennessee was abysmal in this category last season. They were among the worst in the FBS in that category, with only one Power 5 school finishing the season with fewer passes defended than the Vols (Syracuse). I'm not predicting some insane turnaround here, however. I'm simply calling for a return to the middle of the FBS pack. Now, why predict Buchanan to lead the team in passes defended? I ultimately think that he could find himself being the more favorable target this season over the two freshmen opposite him because Buchanan doesn't strike me as a pick waiting to happen. He'll bat down plenty of passes, in my opinion, but he won't force many turnovers. He's a strong tackler and physical corner, and that is his greatest asset. The two athletes opposite him are much more likely to be plucking balls out of the air, although they may also be the ones more likely to give up big plays. The corner position looks to be a mixed bag this season.
Interceptions
Alontae Taylor - 2-4 interceptions
Team - 10-12 interceptions
Tennessee was bad at forcing interceptions last season. Bad to the tune of only five interceptions, and only two of those interceptions from last season are back on this year's roster. One was by Nigel Warrior and the other by Daniel Bituli. That's the bad news. The good news is Todd Kelly Jr. is back and he's accounted for 8 interceptions during his time at Tennessee. We also saw Alontae Taylor and Bryce Thompson record interceptions in the open practice this fall. Trevon Flowers and Brandon Davis are a couple other names that have popped up as far as forcing picks is concerned. Long story short, they should at least double last seasons totals, and with it probable that Taylor will be tested early and often he will have a good chance to become the leader in picks with his special athleticism.
Forced Fumbles
Nigel Warrior - 3-5 forced fumbles
Team - 14-16 forced fumbles
Bet on the trends. Nigel Warrior tied for the team lead in forced fumbles last season, so he's the smart pick to repeat that feat. Warrior is a big hitter and a smart tackler. He knows how to hit a ball carrier to force it loose. Tennessee finished in the top three in forced fumbles among SEC teams last season, and given the fact that Pruitt's defenses tend to force a lot of turnovers, it's realistic to think that they will finish with roughly the same number of forced fumbles. In fact, the Vols return three players who finished ranked among the top 11 in forced fumbles last season.
Fumble Recoveries
Nigel Warrior - 2-4 fumble recoveries
Team - 10-12 fumbles recovered
I expect Nigel Warrior to be the fumble king for the Vols this season, a role filled by Rashaan Gaulden last year. Gaulden forced three and recovered three last season, and Warrior may well match that. Like Gaulden, Warrior is an active defender who has a knack for locating the ball and making the game-changing play on it. As a team, the Vols recovered ten fumbles last season. Pruitt's teams over the last five seasons, a Pruitt defense has recorded fewer than 8 fumble recoveries once, and I certainly don't think he'll see his defense suffer a major decline in turnovers forced this season. The last time a Pruitt-coached defense didn't record 20+ turnovers was in his first season as a coordinator at Florida State. I'll bet on that turnover trend holding steady with the Vols in his first year as a head coach.
Total Yards Allowed
Team - 2,300-2,500 passing yards, 2,100-2,300 rushing yards, 4,400-4,800 total yards allowed
Sometimes you have to learn to crawl before you can walk, and learn to walk before you can run. That's going to be more or less the case with the Vol defense this season. You don't give up nearly 5,000 yards of total offense in 12 games and suddenly become a domineering defense. In fact, the only reason I'm giving the Vols defense this much improvement is my belief that they will force a fair few turnovers in 2018. If they aren't able to improve in forcing turnovers like I expect, it will get worse. I think teams will be forced to attack the Vols in a relatively balanced way. The secondary has to be tested, and you certainly can't abandon attacking what was one of the worst run defenses in the nation last season. So what are we talking about as far as total defense? Middle of the pack in the SEC and that feels about right for this team. There is a significant mix of upperclassmen with younger talents, so elite is probably too much to ask but noticeable improvement also should be expected. For those doing the math, yes, I am expecting the yards allowed by the Vols this season to be higher than the yards gained. There are at least three teams on the Vols schedule that should be capable of piling on the yards allowed, and there aren't many on the schedule beyond the cupcake opponents that the backups will play extensively against where the Vols are likely to be in blowout mode. Things just measure out that way.
Total Points per Game Allowed
Team - 42-50 touchdowns, 14-16 field goals, 25-31 points per game allowed
I'll admit that this one feels a little low, but I think there are at least six or seven opponents on the schedule who simply won't be able to rack up the points, even if those games prove to be losses for the Vols. Despite the bleak defensive output last season in total defense, the scoring defense was actually middle of the pack at a little over 29 points per game allowed. The bottom half of the conference, to be sure, but there were still five SEC teams that allowed a higher point per game total. Again, this is middle of the pack in the SEC, but incremental improvement is still an improvement.
My final thoughts are this: I think this can be a largely middle of the road team in the Southeastern Conference with a final record somewhere in the 5-7 to 7-5 range before the postseason. These numbers were done with a bowl game in mind because of my 6-6 prediction, but there will be a number of toss-up games this season, in large part because there isn't much to indicate that either side of the ball is going to carry the team to dominance against the bulk of their schedule. South Carolina, Missouri, Florida, West Virginia, and Kentucky all look like they could probably go either way. I expect this team to win enough of those to head to a bowl game but the roster still just isn't built to dominate most Power 5 opponents. That said, if they stay mostly healthy they're a lot closer than they seem to have been a year ago.
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