Most seasons, I elect to do a preseason statistical prediction article, in some form or fashion. I've opted to do it again this year but with a bit less of a deep dive than in years past due to the unpredictability of this team. I'll give more general statistical ranges and less broken down numbers because it's rather difficult to pin this team down. I'll also either focus on team numbers or leaders in a particular category rather than estimating the numbers for every single player. It will still be thorough, but less in-depth than in past years. With that, here we go.
Passing
Jarrett Guarantano - 2,100 to 2,300 yards, 20-22 touchdowns, 8-10 interceptions
Team - 2,500 to 2,700 yards, 24-26 touchdowns, 10-12 interceptions
With the new redshirt rules, it's highly likely that every single scholarship quarterback sees some time passing, and my numbers could be way off if the prevailing belief that Guarantano wins the job and keeps it fails to pan out. Still, that isn't my biggest concern at this point. That remains the fact that I'm calling for a passing game that only managed 11 touchdowns against 10 interceptions to see such meaningful improvement, but it is very much one of those situations where it simply won't get worse. It's easy to think that I'm calling for a huge jump in passing yardage, but the Vols passed for over 2,000 yards last season, so it's still incremental improvement that I'm expecting in yardage. The touchdown to interception ratio is the big leap, but the talent looks to be there and as long as the development and maturity have come along as most believe things should play out fairly well for this level of improvement.
Rushing
Ty Chandler - 450 to 650 yards, 3-5 touchdowns, 4.5-4.7 yards per carry
Team - 1,800 to 2,000 yards, 18-20 touchdowns, 4.3-4.5 yards per carry
This may seem low to some people, but it's worth acknowledging that this is a 300-500 yard increase in the season rushing total. The offensive line looks improved and it's a good group of running backs, but if things are going to be handled as running back by committee I have a hard time seeing the running production being especially consistent. That isn't to say that they couldn't break 2,000 yards rushing on the season, but for that to happen I think someone has to fully take the reins at the position to become the #1 back. Ty Chandler is a strong candidate to make that happen, and Tim Jordan continues to impress when he gets his opportunities. Madre London, while impressive at times, probably isn't explosive enough to become the primary ball carrier. It's also worth noting that there is a lot of belief that the staff may get creative with how they use Chandler, so his rushing numbers may not be great, but I like him to have a shot at over 1,000 all-purpose yards. After all, Chandler did have 829 all-purpose yards last year, so he doesn't have to improve much or get that many more opportunities to make that happen.
Receiving
Brandon Johnson - 475-675 yards, 3-5 touchdowns, 12.5-14.5 yards per reception
Team - 2,400 to 2,700 yards, 24-26 touchdowns, 11-13 yards per reception
This one may come as a surprise to a lot of people with Callaway and Jennings back, but bear this in mind: Johnson led the team in receptions and receiving yards last season, and neither Callaway nor Jennings has led the team in receptions or receiving yards. Both are guys who will find the end zone plenty, and both could, and probably will outscore Johnson. What Johnson provides is a reliable target to the quarterback. When you have a number of solid receiving options, it tends to keep the numbers down for everyone. Even so, I think a strong season is a good possibility for Johnson. There is also going to be some rust for Jennings to knock off and Callaway was notoriously inconsistent last year. When Callaway and Jennings are at their best, they are making big plays that most other receivers aren't able to, and I would wager they'll keep that same trend going this season. It is very possible for the Vols to have 3-5 receivers over 350 receiving yards this season, and if so I would keep an eye on Johnson, Callaway, Jennings, Jordan Murphy, and Dominick Wood-Anderson to be the guys getting it done.
Total Offense
Team - 4,300-4,700 yards of total offense
I might actually be crazy for this one, but I simply expect major offensive improvement. How can one not after the offense had fewer than 3,500 yards of total offense a year ago? The mess that was the quarterback situation last year along with a battered and inconsistent offensive line doomed the Vols, but they head into this season with no major injuries and noticeable improvement at two of their major perceived weaknesses last season. John Kelly obviously won't be easily replaced, but the Vols have options with an apparent three-headed beast at running back, and there are no notable losses at wide receiver. There is, however, a noteworthy return at wideout with Jauan Jennings. It's too soon to say whether or not this optimism is undeserved, but right now things look promising for significant improvement. For any critics who would like to pretend like this prediction means winning seasons, I would point out that the 2017 versions of both Vanderbilt and Arkansas fall within this yardage range.
Total Points per Game
Team - 43-50 touchdowns, 15-18 field goals, 26-31 points per game
My thoughts here have changed from a couple days ago, and the logic behind that is that I actually like the potential of placekicker Brent Cimaglia to hit some deeper field goals and give the Vols a chance at points where they might have otherwise missed out on those points previously. I also think the Vols will have a chance at some defensive and special teams touchdowns. The Vols have two players on the roster who have registered return touchdowns and those two also ranked among the top four on kick and punt returns last season. Defensively, whenever a team increases their turnovers they increase the opportunities for defensive touchdowns. Two current Vols have interception return touchdowns (both now at linebacker) and at least two of their newcomers likely to see significant playing time in the secondary were largely recruited as offensive weapons in addition to their coverage skills.
Tackling
Daniel Bituli - 100-115 tackles, 8-10 tackles for loss, 1.5-3 sacks
For obvious reasons, I'm not going to both with team tackles because it's a pretty pointless stat and wildly difficult to gauge. However, the leading tackler is a pretty important measure of the leader of the defense. Bituli led the team in tackles last year and should be poised to do so again. In many ways, he's become the emotional center of the defense. Some would probably lean toward Darrin Kirkland Jr., but given his recent injury history and the fact that he's yet to lead the team in tackles in his three seasons, I opted to go with what appears to be the safer bet. Kirkland has been challenged at the weakside position by Quart'e Sapp, and I think those two talented linebackers will split time a lot more than Will Ignont will manage to steal minutes from Bituli.
Tackles for Loss
Jonathan Kongbo - 13-15 tackles for loss
Team - 80-85 tackles for loss
Often times, the leader in sacks for a team will also prove to be the leader in tackles for loss. On occasion, a linebacker is so disruptive that the sack leader simply can't keep up. Then there are those unique specimens at defensive tackle who are abnormally disruptive run defenders. Why Kongbo? Well, as a true defensive lineman, he was somewhat limited. Taking on blockers with little head of steam proved a limiter on his talents, but his talent was never really in question. Now with the shift to the Jack linebacker role, he will spend a fair bit of his time in a 2-point stance. Getting his hand out of the dirt and more room to pick up momentum as well as selecting and executing pass rush moves should ultimately enable him to create havoc. He struggled against the run last season because he struggled to beat blockers in those situations. He should find himself with fewer situations in which he has a blocker already on him as soon as the play begins. I think this is one category where the Vols make a big jump, having produced only 61 tackles for loss last season. Pruitt's defenses bring pressure, and that should lead to negative plays.
Sacks
Darrell Taylor - 7-9 sacks
Team - 25-30 sacks
Yeah, I know I said a lot of times the leader in sacks is also the leader in tackles for loss, but not this time. Darrell Taylor has always been insanely explosive, having played wide receiver in high school and retaining much of that athletic ability as he's added muscle to his frame. Working at the strongside linebacker position should give him plenty of pass rushing opportunities, and with Kongbo putting pressure on from one side, my belief is that the speedy Taylor will be able to take advantage of those situations. Kongbo should get his sacks, but I don't think he'll be able to get to those loftier numbers with offenses trying to gameplan around his pressure. I'm not calling for as big a jump here. Tennessee had 22 sacks last season, so my low-end improvement is only three sacks. Yes, if they reach the high-end of my prediction would be a pretty significant jump from last season, but right in line with their sack production in 2015 and 2016.
Passes Defended
Baylen Buchanan - 8-10 passes defended
Team - 50-55 passes defended
I'm in no way exaggerating when I say that Tennessee was abysmal in this category last season. They were among the worst in the FBS in that category, with only one Power 5 school finishing the season with fewer passes defended than the Vols (Syracuse). I'm not predicting some insane turnaround here, however. I'm simply calling for a return to the middle of the FBS pack. Now, why predict Buchanan to lead the team in passes defended? I ultimately think that he could find himself being the more favorable target this season over the two freshmen opposite him because Buchanan doesn't strike me as a pick waiting to happen. He'll bat down plenty of passes, in my opinion, but he won't force many turnovers. He's a strong tackler and physical corner, and that is his greatest asset. The two athletes opposite him are much more likely to be plucking balls out of the air, although they may also be the ones more likely to give up big plays. The corner position looks to be a mixed bag this season.
Interceptions
Alontae Taylor - 2-4 interceptions
Team - 10-12 interceptions
Tennessee was bad at forcing interceptions last season. Bad to the tune of only five interceptions, and only two of those interceptions from last season are back on this year's roster. One was by Nigel Warrior and the other by Daniel Bituli. That's the bad news. The good news is Todd Kelly Jr. is back and he's accounted for 8 interceptions during his time at Tennessee. We also saw Alontae Taylor and Bryce Thompson record interceptions in the open practice this fall. Trevon Flowers and Brandon Davis are a couple other names that have popped up as far as forcing picks is concerned. Long story short, they should at least double last seasons totals, and with it probable that Taylor will be tested early and often he will have a good chance to become the leader in picks with his special athleticism.
Forced Fumbles
Nigel Warrior - 3-5 forced fumbles
Team - 14-16 forced fumbles
Bet on the trends. Nigel Warrior tied for the team lead in forced fumbles last season, so he's the smart pick to repeat that feat. Warrior is a big hitter and a smart tackler. He knows how to hit a ball carrier to force it loose. Tennessee finished in the top three in forced fumbles among SEC teams last season, and given the fact that Pruitt's defenses tend to force a lot of turnovers, it's realistic to think that they will finish with roughly the same number of forced fumbles. In fact, the Vols return three players who finished ranked among the top 11 in forced fumbles last season.
Fumble Recoveries
Nigel Warrior - 2-4 fumble recoveries
Team - 10-12 fumbles recovered
I expect Nigel Warrior to be the fumble king for the Vols this season, a role filled by Rashaan Gaulden last year. Gaulden forced three and recovered three last season, and Warrior may well match that. Like Gaulden, Warrior is an active defender who has a knack for locating the ball and making the game-changing play on it. As a team, the Vols recovered ten fumbles last season. Pruitt's teams over the last five seasons, a Pruitt defense has recorded fewer than 8 fumble recoveries once, and I certainly don't think he'll see his defense suffer a major decline in turnovers forced this season. The last time a Pruitt-coached defense didn't record 20+ turnovers was in his first season as a coordinator at Florida State. I'll bet on that turnover trend holding steady with the Vols in his first year as a head coach.
Total Yards Allowed
Team - 2,300-2,500 passing yards, 2,100-2,300 rushing yards, 4,400-4,800 total yards allowed
Sometimes you have to learn to crawl before you can walk, and learn to walk before you can run. That's going to be more or less the case with the Vol defense this season. You don't give up nearly 5,000 yards of total offense in 12 games and suddenly become a domineering defense. In fact, the only reason I'm giving the Vols defense this much improvement is my belief that they will force a fair few turnovers in 2018. If they aren't able to improve in forcing turnovers like I expect, it will get worse. I think teams will be forced to attack the Vols in a relatively balanced way. The secondary has to be tested, and you certainly can't abandon attacking what was one of the worst run defenses in the nation last season. So what are we talking about as far as total defense? Middle of the pack in the SEC and that feels about right for this team. There is a significant mix of upperclassmen with younger talents, so elite is probably too much to ask but noticeable improvement also should be expected. For those doing the math, yes, I am expecting the yards allowed by the Vols this season to be higher than the yards gained. There are at least three teams on the Vols schedule that should be capable of piling on the yards allowed, and there aren't many on the schedule beyond the cupcake opponents that the backups will play extensively against where the Vols are likely to be in blowout mode. Things just measure out that way.
Total Points per Game Allowed
Team - 42-50 touchdowns, 14-16 field goals, 25-31 points per game allowed
I'll admit that this one feels a little low, but I think there are at least six or seven opponents on the schedule who simply won't be able to rack up the points, even if those games prove to be losses for the Vols. Despite the bleak defensive output last season in total defense, the scoring defense was actually middle of the pack at a little over 29 points per game allowed. The bottom half of the conference, to be sure, but there were still five SEC teams that allowed a higher point per game total. Again, this is middle of the pack in the SEC, but incremental improvement is still an improvement.
My final thoughts are this: I think this can be a largely middle of the road team in the Southeastern Conference with a final record somewhere in the 5-7 to 7-5 range before the postseason. These numbers were done with a bowl game in mind because of my 6-6 prediction, but there will be a number of toss-up games this season, in large part because there isn't much to indicate that either side of the ball is going to carry the team to dominance against the bulk of their schedule. South Carolina, Missouri, Florida, West Virginia, and Kentucky all look like they could probably go either way. I expect this team to win enough of those to head to a bowl game but the roster still just isn't built to dominate most Power 5 opponents. That said, if they stay mostly healthy they're a lot closer than they seem to have been a year ago.
Wednesday, August 29, 2018
Saturday, August 18, 2018
Position Group Power Rankings - Second Scrimmage Edition
Linebackers: No change at the top this time around. This is still the deepest looking group as a whole. No JJ Peterson, no problem right now. Peterson qualifying would just be icing on a very, very nice cake. There is a quality two-deep at linebacker and it's remained fairly settled the entire way. Injuries could be a bit of an issue if they started piling up, but that's really true of any position. This is as strong a group as can be found on the roster. Jonathan Kongbo has the potential to be the breakout star of the group. Darrell Taylor and Jordan Allen have also really shown some potential to be productive pass rushers from linebacker. Grade: A
Running Backs: A group on the move as the top three have really risen to the top of the pecking order. Ty Chandler is still the most explosive of the backs, in addition to being the lightest of the trio. Light is relative here as he is listed at 5-11, 201. Tim Jordan is a bowling ball at running back as he appears to be 100% muscle at 5-11, 203. Competing with Jordan for the #2 job is Madre London, the graduate transfer from Michigan State. London is one of the bigger backs on the roster at 6-1, 213. It will probably still be running back by committee, but these three seem plenty capable of handling the load and handling it well. Grade: A-
Defensive Linemen: Some of the younger guys are stepping up here to keep this group in the top three positions. Kingston Harris got off to a bit of a slower start, but he's really begun to establish himself as a young player in line to play meaningful minutes. Kivon Bennett got a brief look at linebacker for depth purposes but has returned to the defensive line, where he looks like the probable number two behind Kyle Phillips. Emmit Gooden is in line to play a lot of minutes somewhere along the defensive line along with Phillips, Shy Tuttle, and Alexis Johnson. The greatest concern here is having to turn to younger players if injuries pile up, but as far as the two-deep is concerned, it looks fairly promising. Grade: B+
Defensive Backs: I'm giving this group a bump largely because of the safeties/Star group, which looks as deep and high quality as the Vols have had in some time. They can comfortably go into a dime defense and feel relatively comfortable with the two additional defensive backs, both of which seem likely to come from the safety group. Todd Kelly Jr., Theo Jackson, Nigel Warrior, Shawn Shamburger, Cheyenne Labruzza, Micah Abernathy, and Trevon Flowers all look capable of helping out this season if called upon, and Brandon Davis has shown flashes and is possibly only held back by his lack of weight. At corner, things are less promising but not necessarily grim. The top corner options right now appear to be Bryce Thompson, Baylen Buchanan, Alontae Taylor, Kenneth George Jr., and Marquill Osborne. Were the season to start today, I'd anticipate Buchanan and Taylor being the starters with George behind Buchanan and Thompson spelling Taylor. The corner group is relatively young, but Taylor, Thompson, and George bring athleticism that was lacking the last several seasons. Grade: B
Offensive Linemen: Big jump here, and for a good reason: Trey Smith is close to being cleared, is seeing more work, and appears to be helping solidify the offensive line overall. Chance Hall is also coming along, although he's probably not ready to help at all yet. With Smith's impending return, Drew Richmond has moved to right tackle, where he appears to be a better fit. Ryan Johnson has joined him on the right side of the line at guard. Smith and Jahmir Johnson are now the top options at left tackle and the top options at left guard are Jerome Carvin and Riley Locklear, a couple of athletic and aggressive young blockers. Center has become the sure home of graduate transfer Brandon Kennedy. The #2 right tackle is pretty clearly Marcus Tatum right now, and the backup right guard looks likely to be K'Rojhn Calbert. Ollie Lane seems likely to spell Kennedy, but he should play sparingly. Overall, this is probably the best I've felt about a Vol offensive line since Ja'Wuan James, James Stone, Zach Fulton, Tiny Richardson, and Marcus Jackson formed the starting five. Grade: B
Wide Receivers: This group slides a little bit largely because of drops in practice without defenders. Those are balls that just can't hit the ground. Jauan Jennings also hasn't been 100% in camp and it's hard to argue that his health is a major factor in how good this group will be. Marquez Callaway and Brandon Johnson continue to run with the ones, and at times when Jennings has been unavailable Josh Palmer has stepped into a starting role. That seems like the probable starting three for West Virginia, but Jordan Murphy has certainly been flashing in practice and could push Palmer for that third job if Jennings doesn't get healthy in time for week one. Cedric Tillman continues to be an impressive freshman, especially considering his very low recruiting ranking. He continues to look like the steal of the class. The good news is that Latrell Williams and Tyler Byrd have both had strong practices this past week and especially Byrd could compete for playing time this season. Grade: B-
Special Teams: This group has dropped because of some occasional subpar practices, especially for the punters. Both are young, but the two freshmen will have to perform this season as they are the only realistic options to handle the punting duties. The good news is Paxton Brooks was praised today by Pruitt as someone who has been improving, so that bodes well for the punting duties. As far as placekicking goes, not much has been said about the placekickers and that's a good thing. Seldom is a specialist being mentioned because they've done something good in practice. It's generally bad news. There are options to handle return duties, but fans will have to understand that there simply isn't another Evan Berry waiting in the wings. Marquez Callaway and Ty Chandler both have return touchdowns in their careers, but neither has been mentioned much in relation to return duties. This one may have to wait to be revealed until the first depth chart is released. Grade: C+
Quarterbacks: I'd love to tell you this was a group on the rise, but if they are it isn't by much. Keller Chryst has been practicing better, and he's made it a real competition with Jarrett Guarantano for the starting job now. Unfortunately, that also means that neither signal caller has separated themselves. Guarantano will have a strong practice. Then Chryst performs better in the next practice. Back and forth with neither one really taking the reins. The most recent scrimmage saw all four quarterbacks getting equal work according to Pruitt. This really seems like a competition that won't end until the week before the Florida game, so be prepared to see both Chryst and Guarantano get work with the first team against West Virginia, ETSU, and UTEP, and weeks two and three will probably see all four quarterbacks playing at least some minutes. I do think that for the most part Guarantano and Chryst are feeding off one another, and that fact is why I think this group has improved slightly. Even so, it really isn't by much at all. Grade: C
Tight Ends: The group that I also put the fullbacks/H-backs with has dropped to last place because of a severe lack of depth emerging. They can go two-deep at both fullback/H-back and true tight ends, but there's virtually no depth beyond that. So much so that it seems that Princeton Fant's return to working with the tight end group very likely was depth related for those positions. Dominick Wood-Anderson is everything he was billed to be and he might very well be the Vols most productive player from that position since Mychal Rivera. Eli Wolf is the clear #2 tight end and he continues to show good hands and a strong work ethic. He can be explosive as an option to split out into the slot. Ja'Quain Blakely has taken the helm at the fullback spot with Austin Pope also getting extensive work handling those duties. Neither Pope nor Blakely seems like an option to help at tight end if injuries were to occur there, and likely options like James Brown have been limited in camp. LaTrell Bumphus seems best suited for the fullback role, but he could at least provide a big body to help block if needed at tight end. Jacob Warren has the tools to help as a receiver, but he's far too slight to handle the necessary blocking responsibilities. This is a group that is a couple of injuries away from being a liability. Grade: C-
Running Backs: A group on the move as the top three have really risen to the top of the pecking order. Ty Chandler is still the most explosive of the backs, in addition to being the lightest of the trio. Light is relative here as he is listed at 5-11, 201. Tim Jordan is a bowling ball at running back as he appears to be 100% muscle at 5-11, 203. Competing with Jordan for the #2 job is Madre London, the graduate transfer from Michigan State. London is one of the bigger backs on the roster at 6-1, 213. It will probably still be running back by committee, but these three seem plenty capable of handling the load and handling it well. Grade: A-
Defensive Linemen: Some of the younger guys are stepping up here to keep this group in the top three positions. Kingston Harris got off to a bit of a slower start, but he's really begun to establish himself as a young player in line to play meaningful minutes. Kivon Bennett got a brief look at linebacker for depth purposes but has returned to the defensive line, where he looks like the probable number two behind Kyle Phillips. Emmit Gooden is in line to play a lot of minutes somewhere along the defensive line along with Phillips, Shy Tuttle, and Alexis Johnson. The greatest concern here is having to turn to younger players if injuries pile up, but as far as the two-deep is concerned, it looks fairly promising. Grade: B+
Defensive Backs: I'm giving this group a bump largely because of the safeties/Star group, which looks as deep and high quality as the Vols have had in some time. They can comfortably go into a dime defense and feel relatively comfortable with the two additional defensive backs, both of which seem likely to come from the safety group. Todd Kelly Jr., Theo Jackson, Nigel Warrior, Shawn Shamburger, Cheyenne Labruzza, Micah Abernathy, and Trevon Flowers all look capable of helping out this season if called upon, and Brandon Davis has shown flashes and is possibly only held back by his lack of weight. At corner, things are less promising but not necessarily grim. The top corner options right now appear to be Bryce Thompson, Baylen Buchanan, Alontae Taylor, Kenneth George Jr., and Marquill Osborne. Were the season to start today, I'd anticipate Buchanan and Taylor being the starters with George behind Buchanan and Thompson spelling Taylor. The corner group is relatively young, but Taylor, Thompson, and George bring athleticism that was lacking the last several seasons. Grade: B
Offensive Linemen: Big jump here, and for a good reason: Trey Smith is close to being cleared, is seeing more work, and appears to be helping solidify the offensive line overall. Chance Hall is also coming along, although he's probably not ready to help at all yet. With Smith's impending return, Drew Richmond has moved to right tackle, where he appears to be a better fit. Ryan Johnson has joined him on the right side of the line at guard. Smith and Jahmir Johnson are now the top options at left tackle and the top options at left guard are Jerome Carvin and Riley Locklear, a couple of athletic and aggressive young blockers. Center has become the sure home of graduate transfer Brandon Kennedy. The #2 right tackle is pretty clearly Marcus Tatum right now, and the backup right guard looks likely to be K'Rojhn Calbert. Ollie Lane seems likely to spell Kennedy, but he should play sparingly. Overall, this is probably the best I've felt about a Vol offensive line since Ja'Wuan James, James Stone, Zach Fulton, Tiny Richardson, and Marcus Jackson formed the starting five. Grade: B
Wide Receivers: This group slides a little bit largely because of drops in practice without defenders. Those are balls that just can't hit the ground. Jauan Jennings also hasn't been 100% in camp and it's hard to argue that his health is a major factor in how good this group will be. Marquez Callaway and Brandon Johnson continue to run with the ones, and at times when Jennings has been unavailable Josh Palmer has stepped into a starting role. That seems like the probable starting three for West Virginia, but Jordan Murphy has certainly been flashing in practice and could push Palmer for that third job if Jennings doesn't get healthy in time for week one. Cedric Tillman continues to be an impressive freshman, especially considering his very low recruiting ranking. He continues to look like the steal of the class. The good news is that Latrell Williams and Tyler Byrd have both had strong practices this past week and especially Byrd could compete for playing time this season. Grade: B-
Special Teams: This group has dropped because of some occasional subpar practices, especially for the punters. Both are young, but the two freshmen will have to perform this season as they are the only realistic options to handle the punting duties. The good news is Paxton Brooks was praised today by Pruitt as someone who has been improving, so that bodes well for the punting duties. As far as placekicking goes, not much has been said about the placekickers and that's a good thing. Seldom is a specialist being mentioned because they've done something good in practice. It's generally bad news. There are options to handle return duties, but fans will have to understand that there simply isn't another Evan Berry waiting in the wings. Marquez Callaway and Ty Chandler both have return touchdowns in their careers, but neither has been mentioned much in relation to return duties. This one may have to wait to be revealed until the first depth chart is released. Grade: C+
Quarterbacks: I'd love to tell you this was a group on the rise, but if they are it isn't by much. Keller Chryst has been practicing better, and he's made it a real competition with Jarrett Guarantano for the starting job now. Unfortunately, that also means that neither signal caller has separated themselves. Guarantano will have a strong practice. Then Chryst performs better in the next practice. Back and forth with neither one really taking the reins. The most recent scrimmage saw all four quarterbacks getting equal work according to Pruitt. This really seems like a competition that won't end until the week before the Florida game, so be prepared to see both Chryst and Guarantano get work with the first team against West Virginia, ETSU, and UTEP, and weeks two and three will probably see all four quarterbacks playing at least some minutes. I do think that for the most part Guarantano and Chryst are feeding off one another, and that fact is why I think this group has improved slightly. Even so, it really isn't by much at all. Grade: C
Tight Ends: The group that I also put the fullbacks/H-backs with has dropped to last place because of a severe lack of depth emerging. They can go two-deep at both fullback/H-back and true tight ends, but there's virtually no depth beyond that. So much so that it seems that Princeton Fant's return to working with the tight end group very likely was depth related for those positions. Dominick Wood-Anderson is everything he was billed to be and he might very well be the Vols most productive player from that position since Mychal Rivera. Eli Wolf is the clear #2 tight end and he continues to show good hands and a strong work ethic. He can be explosive as an option to split out into the slot. Ja'Quain Blakely has taken the helm at the fullback spot with Austin Pope also getting extensive work handling those duties. Neither Pope nor Blakely seems like an option to help at tight end if injuries were to occur there, and likely options like James Brown have been limited in camp. LaTrell Bumphus seems best suited for the fullback role, but he could at least provide a big body to help block if needed at tight end. Jacob Warren has the tools to help as a receiver, but he's far too slight to handle the necessary blocking responsibilities. This is a group that is a couple of injuries away from being a liability. Grade: C-
Tuesday, August 7, 2018
Early Camp Position Power Rankings
It's still early going in camp, but there have been some impressions formed about the roster and the strength of each position group. Again, this is all early going, and it's all subject to change as one would expect. Even so, here it goes.
Linebackers: This is one group that can probably comfortably go two deep, and that's without JJ Peterson even on campus. It's also one of the most experienced positions on the roster, with 180 combined games played and 52 collective starts among the group. They have a combined career stat line of 396 tackles, 31.5 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, 3 interceptions, 11 passes broken up, 4 fumble recoveries, and 5 forced fumbles and average out to 6-2, 231 pounds as a whole and 6-3, 236 pounds just with the scholarship players. They've been moving around well, with Darrin Kirkland Jr. Quart'e Sapp, Daniel Bituli, Jordan Allen, and Jonathan Kongbo all being specifically mentioned over the past four practices. The rest of the likely two deep includes Darrell Taylor, Deandre Johnson, and Will Ignont. Only Johnson was ranked lower than a four star out of high school. They have the talent, the depth, and the experience to be a strength of the team. Grade: A-
Wide Receivers: Again, one of the more experienced groups on the roster, with a combined 107 games played and 39 starts between them all. As a collective, they have registered 154 receptions for 2,086 yards and 14 touchdowns for 13.6 yards per reception. The running backs and tight ends only account for a combined 38 receptions for 341 yards and a touchdown, so it's plain to see that the receivers are going to need to keep it up and step it up. Marquez Callaway, Jauan Jennings, and Brandon Johnson have accounted for 77.3% of the receptions, 83.4% of the receiving yards, and 92.9% of the touchdowns by the wideouts, so it's pretty clear who the top three receivers will be. Josh Palmer looks likely to be one of the first off the bench along with Jordan Murphy, but who will be the sixth man in the group is still up for grabs. Latrell Williams, Jacquez Jones, and Tyler Byrd are the experienced guys competing for that sixth job, but keep an eye on true freshman Cedric Tillman, who wasn't highly ranked out of high school but is coming along fast and impressing. As a group, they average out to 6-1, 190 and 6-1, 194 with the scholarship players. Grade: B+
Defensive Line: There are four options on the defensive line that look very solid, but things get rougher after that, I'm afraid. Shy Tuttle, Alexis Johnson, Emmit Gooden, and Kyle Phillips in some configuration will be the top four defensive linemen, but after that it's walk ons and underclassmen. Paul Bain has been in the program for a while and has always impressed in practices. That seems like it may payoff in playing time for the senior walk on this season. Greg Emerson was the top ranked defensive line signee in this past class, but he's still working on getting back to his old form from a bad injury prior to his senior season and he thus far doesn't look to be a factor this season. That leaves sophomores Kivon Bennett and Matthew Butler along with freshmen Kingston Harris, Kurott Garland, and John Mincey to try and round out the depth chart. Bennett has displayed some strong play in early practices and the staff seems to be challenging him to show even more. Mincey has also had impressive moments as has Harris, but the reality is that we're still talking about freshmen in Mincey and Harris. This is the least experienced group on the defense, with only 79 combined games played and 13 starts among them, but the top four is still an impressive group. The group has combined for 125 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, 6 passes broken up, and 3 fumble recoveries. The good news is that Pruitt wanted to get this group bigger and that has been accomplished, with the position group averaging out to 6-3, 287 and 6-3, 290 with just the scholarship guys. Grade B
Running Backs: The numbers don't match up with how good this group appears capable of being. At any rate, they look the part fully and completely. As a group, they've only combined for 316 career carries for 1,290 yards and 10 touchdowns rushing and 32 receptions for 276 yards and a touchdown. Not exactly numbers that will set the world on fire. Neither are their 70 career games played or 7 combined starts, but the combined size of all the running backs is 5-11, 207, but that gets a big boost when it's just the scholarship running backs, jumping up to 6-1, 217. Mind you, part of that is due to my inclusion of Ja'Quain Blakely, who is listed as a tight end/fullback, but since they will be running more I-formation, it only seems fair to include the only listed fullback on the roster. Even without counting Blakely, however, they still have some size at running back with Trey Coleman (6-0, 210), Madre London (6-1, 213), Jeremy Banks (6-2, 211), and Princeton Fant (6-2, 222). There are also some smaller backs in the group with Ty Chandler (5-11, 201) and Tim Jordan (5-11, 203), but Jordan runs with power as well. Chandler is really the best of the bunch when it comes to speed, but he's not much of a power back, so it's likely to be at least somewhat running back by committee. They do seem to have that committee though. Grade: B-
Defensive Backs: Yeah, I'm going to place them this high, and the reasons might surprise you. One main reason is it's the most experienced position group on the roster in 2018, with 197 career games played and 54 starts between them all. Another is the strength and depth of the safety group with Nigel Warrior, Todd Kelly Jr., and Micah Abernathy all three having at least 13 career starts behind each of them. The three of them have all 11 of the position's career interceptions. Speaking of the position's combined stats, they also have 482 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 20 passes broken up, 6 fumble recoveries, and 5 fumbles. With or without the walk ons, the secondary group averages out to 6-0, 188, which is a good sized collection of DBs. Now, if it were just the safeties performing at this point, I'd have them lower, but Shawn Shamburger has been impressing at the Star position, the nickel in this defensive scheme. At corner, Alontae Taylor, Kenneth George Jr., Baylen Buchanan, and Bryce Thompson have all had standout moments and right now might be emerging as the top four corners this season. It's simply a group that seems to be further ahead than expected, and that's due in no small part to the emergence of two true freshmen and a JUCO transfer at corner. Grade: C+
Special Teams: Things are pretty settled as far as the placekicker and snapper are concern, with Brent Cimaglia handling placekicking duties and Riley Lovingood and Elijah Medford back to handle the snapping duties. Punter is a bit of a competition, with walk on Joe Doyle challenging scholarship freshman Paxton Brooks for the job. Neither is going to impress in the way that Trevor Daniel, Matt Darr, or Michael Palardy did over the past several seasons, but a lot of that is just going to have to come with experience, which they both lack. They need to become more consistent, and the big booming punts of last season simply aren't going to be there. As for the returners, Theo Jackson and Jordan Murphy are getting looks at punt returner. It will be interesting to see if Ty Chandler returns kickoffs again or if Jackson and Murphy will get looks there as well. Grade: C
Tight Ends: This position group is getting a boost mostly due to the addition of Dominick Wood-Anderson, who has looked like everything he was billed to be out of the JUCO ranks. He's a talented receiver and a capable blocker. Unfortunately, he is the only complete tight end on the roster. Eli Wolf is still too slight to be much help as a blocker, but he's likely the top flex tight end who can be shifted out as a slot. Austin Pope has gotten work as an H-back/fullback type as well as a tight end. Jacob Warren isn't physically ready for the tight end position. LaTrell Bumphus and Ja'Quain Blakely are true fullback/H-back types at this point. James Brown is probably 15 pounds away from helping much at tight end, and the former high school quarterback isn't likely to help much as a fullback type. That's the group. Wood-Anderson and everybody else. That does not make for a complete position group. I won't bother with the stats because they aren't worth bothering with. As a group, they've had 34 games played and one start in the college ranks. They average out to 6-4, 242, which isn't bad but is brought up a lot by Wood-Anderson's 257 pounds and Bumphus's 263 pounds. If Wood-Anderson goes down, this group becomes a frightening liability, especially as far as in-line blockers goes. Grade: C-
Quarterbacks: This is very much a case of not really knowing where else to put this group. Keller Chryst and Jarrett Guarantano seem to have really separated themselves as the top two guys, and Guarantano might be separating himself from Chryst, at least in the early going. Chryst was more comfortable in his fourth practice, but Guarantano hasn't taken any steps back. So why such a low grade? Because Tennessee has had to dip to their third quarterback plenty in the last five or so seasons, and getting down there gets very scary. Additionally, how Guarantano or Chryst will perform in a game is a concern, and a serious one. The career passing stats would make for a solid season, with a 56.2% completion percentage throwing for 3,075 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions between Chryst, Guarantano, and McBride. The group has good size at 6-3, 218, but even with the addition of Chryst it's fair to question the depth of the position beyond the top two. Things will get rough fast with injuries. Grade: C-
Offensive Line: What a shocker, right? Well, in actuality I only gave them this low of a grade because of the still limited status of Trey Smith and Chance Hall. Drew Richmond appears to have improved some and Brandon Kennedy at center is a revelation. Right guard is likely to be a competition between Riley Locklear and freshman Jerome Carvin, and both appear capable. Marcus Tatum is still not an elite tackle, but Ryan Johnson appears to hold his own filling in for Smith at left guard. Ultimately, the need for either Smith or Hall to take the reins at right tackle is a big one, and with both trying to get back to being fully cleared to play their status is the difference between barely passable and solid. Tatum, Johnson, Ollie Lane, and Nathan Niehaus shouldn't be in the mix for starting jobs but should be depth pieces, and for now they are at least names that have to be watched with the holes in the starting five. That's a big problem waiting for a clear answer. Grade: D+
Linebackers: This is one group that can probably comfortably go two deep, and that's without JJ Peterson even on campus. It's also one of the most experienced positions on the roster, with 180 combined games played and 52 collective starts among the group. They have a combined career stat line of 396 tackles, 31.5 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, 3 interceptions, 11 passes broken up, 4 fumble recoveries, and 5 forced fumbles and average out to 6-2, 231 pounds as a whole and 6-3, 236 pounds just with the scholarship players. They've been moving around well, with Darrin Kirkland Jr. Quart'e Sapp, Daniel Bituli, Jordan Allen, and Jonathan Kongbo all being specifically mentioned over the past four practices. The rest of the likely two deep includes Darrell Taylor, Deandre Johnson, and Will Ignont. Only Johnson was ranked lower than a four star out of high school. They have the talent, the depth, and the experience to be a strength of the team. Grade: A-
Wide Receivers: Again, one of the more experienced groups on the roster, with a combined 107 games played and 39 starts between them all. As a collective, they have registered 154 receptions for 2,086 yards and 14 touchdowns for 13.6 yards per reception. The running backs and tight ends only account for a combined 38 receptions for 341 yards and a touchdown, so it's plain to see that the receivers are going to need to keep it up and step it up. Marquez Callaway, Jauan Jennings, and Brandon Johnson have accounted for 77.3% of the receptions, 83.4% of the receiving yards, and 92.9% of the touchdowns by the wideouts, so it's pretty clear who the top three receivers will be. Josh Palmer looks likely to be one of the first off the bench along with Jordan Murphy, but who will be the sixth man in the group is still up for grabs. Latrell Williams, Jacquez Jones, and Tyler Byrd are the experienced guys competing for that sixth job, but keep an eye on true freshman Cedric Tillman, who wasn't highly ranked out of high school but is coming along fast and impressing. As a group, they average out to 6-1, 190 and 6-1, 194 with the scholarship players. Grade: B+
Defensive Line: There are four options on the defensive line that look very solid, but things get rougher after that, I'm afraid. Shy Tuttle, Alexis Johnson, Emmit Gooden, and Kyle Phillips in some configuration will be the top four defensive linemen, but after that it's walk ons and underclassmen. Paul Bain has been in the program for a while and has always impressed in practices. That seems like it may payoff in playing time for the senior walk on this season. Greg Emerson was the top ranked defensive line signee in this past class, but he's still working on getting back to his old form from a bad injury prior to his senior season and he thus far doesn't look to be a factor this season. That leaves sophomores Kivon Bennett and Matthew Butler along with freshmen Kingston Harris, Kurott Garland, and John Mincey to try and round out the depth chart. Bennett has displayed some strong play in early practices and the staff seems to be challenging him to show even more. Mincey has also had impressive moments as has Harris, but the reality is that we're still talking about freshmen in Mincey and Harris. This is the least experienced group on the defense, with only 79 combined games played and 13 starts among them, but the top four is still an impressive group. The group has combined for 125 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, 6 passes broken up, and 3 fumble recoveries. The good news is that Pruitt wanted to get this group bigger and that has been accomplished, with the position group averaging out to 6-3, 287 and 6-3, 290 with just the scholarship guys. Grade B
Running Backs: The numbers don't match up with how good this group appears capable of being. At any rate, they look the part fully and completely. As a group, they've only combined for 316 career carries for 1,290 yards and 10 touchdowns rushing and 32 receptions for 276 yards and a touchdown. Not exactly numbers that will set the world on fire. Neither are their 70 career games played or 7 combined starts, but the combined size of all the running backs is 5-11, 207, but that gets a big boost when it's just the scholarship running backs, jumping up to 6-1, 217. Mind you, part of that is due to my inclusion of Ja'Quain Blakely, who is listed as a tight end/fullback, but since they will be running more I-formation, it only seems fair to include the only listed fullback on the roster. Even without counting Blakely, however, they still have some size at running back with Trey Coleman (6-0, 210), Madre London (6-1, 213), Jeremy Banks (6-2, 211), and Princeton Fant (6-2, 222). There are also some smaller backs in the group with Ty Chandler (5-11, 201) and Tim Jordan (5-11, 203), but Jordan runs with power as well. Chandler is really the best of the bunch when it comes to speed, but he's not much of a power back, so it's likely to be at least somewhat running back by committee. They do seem to have that committee though. Grade: B-
Defensive Backs: Yeah, I'm going to place them this high, and the reasons might surprise you. One main reason is it's the most experienced position group on the roster in 2018, with 197 career games played and 54 starts between them all. Another is the strength and depth of the safety group with Nigel Warrior, Todd Kelly Jr., and Micah Abernathy all three having at least 13 career starts behind each of them. The three of them have all 11 of the position's career interceptions. Speaking of the position's combined stats, they also have 482 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 20 passes broken up, 6 fumble recoveries, and 5 fumbles. With or without the walk ons, the secondary group averages out to 6-0, 188, which is a good sized collection of DBs. Now, if it were just the safeties performing at this point, I'd have them lower, but Shawn Shamburger has been impressing at the Star position, the nickel in this defensive scheme. At corner, Alontae Taylor, Kenneth George Jr., Baylen Buchanan, and Bryce Thompson have all had standout moments and right now might be emerging as the top four corners this season. It's simply a group that seems to be further ahead than expected, and that's due in no small part to the emergence of two true freshmen and a JUCO transfer at corner. Grade: C+
Special Teams: Things are pretty settled as far as the placekicker and snapper are concern, with Brent Cimaglia handling placekicking duties and Riley Lovingood and Elijah Medford back to handle the snapping duties. Punter is a bit of a competition, with walk on Joe Doyle challenging scholarship freshman Paxton Brooks for the job. Neither is going to impress in the way that Trevor Daniel, Matt Darr, or Michael Palardy did over the past several seasons, but a lot of that is just going to have to come with experience, which they both lack. They need to become more consistent, and the big booming punts of last season simply aren't going to be there. As for the returners, Theo Jackson and Jordan Murphy are getting looks at punt returner. It will be interesting to see if Ty Chandler returns kickoffs again or if Jackson and Murphy will get looks there as well. Grade: C
Tight Ends: This position group is getting a boost mostly due to the addition of Dominick Wood-Anderson, who has looked like everything he was billed to be out of the JUCO ranks. He's a talented receiver and a capable blocker. Unfortunately, he is the only complete tight end on the roster. Eli Wolf is still too slight to be much help as a blocker, but he's likely the top flex tight end who can be shifted out as a slot. Austin Pope has gotten work as an H-back/fullback type as well as a tight end. Jacob Warren isn't physically ready for the tight end position. LaTrell Bumphus and Ja'Quain Blakely are true fullback/H-back types at this point. James Brown is probably 15 pounds away from helping much at tight end, and the former high school quarterback isn't likely to help much as a fullback type. That's the group. Wood-Anderson and everybody else. That does not make for a complete position group. I won't bother with the stats because they aren't worth bothering with. As a group, they've had 34 games played and one start in the college ranks. They average out to 6-4, 242, which isn't bad but is brought up a lot by Wood-Anderson's 257 pounds and Bumphus's 263 pounds. If Wood-Anderson goes down, this group becomes a frightening liability, especially as far as in-line blockers goes. Grade: C-
Quarterbacks: This is very much a case of not really knowing where else to put this group. Keller Chryst and Jarrett Guarantano seem to have really separated themselves as the top two guys, and Guarantano might be separating himself from Chryst, at least in the early going. Chryst was more comfortable in his fourth practice, but Guarantano hasn't taken any steps back. So why such a low grade? Because Tennessee has had to dip to their third quarterback plenty in the last five or so seasons, and getting down there gets very scary. Additionally, how Guarantano or Chryst will perform in a game is a concern, and a serious one. The career passing stats would make for a solid season, with a 56.2% completion percentage throwing for 3,075 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions between Chryst, Guarantano, and McBride. The group has good size at 6-3, 218, but even with the addition of Chryst it's fair to question the depth of the position beyond the top two. Things will get rough fast with injuries. Grade: C-
Offensive Line: What a shocker, right? Well, in actuality I only gave them this low of a grade because of the still limited status of Trey Smith and Chance Hall. Drew Richmond appears to have improved some and Brandon Kennedy at center is a revelation. Right guard is likely to be a competition between Riley Locklear and freshman Jerome Carvin, and both appear capable. Marcus Tatum is still not an elite tackle, but Ryan Johnson appears to hold his own filling in for Smith at left guard. Ultimately, the need for either Smith or Hall to take the reins at right tackle is a big one, and with both trying to get back to being fully cleared to play their status is the difference between barely passable and solid. Tatum, Johnson, Ollie Lane, and Nathan Niehaus shouldn't be in the mix for starting jobs but should be depth pieces, and for now they are at least names that have to be watched with the holes in the starting five. That's a big problem waiting for a clear answer. Grade: D+
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