The Butch Jones era at Tennessee has been a mixed bag. It's seen Tennessee progress from a perennial 7 loss team to back-to-back 9 win seasons, but those 9 win seasons have also come with heartbreakingly disappointing losses. Tennessee has the talent to be a top program in the SEC, but have yet to have better than the 2nd place in the SEC East or the 4th best record in the conference overall. That was enough for fans at one point as the rebuild was showing improving results, but now the rebuild is into year five and the pieces appear to be in place. Tennessee has a culture of winning and certainly the expectation of such, they have the talent and facilities, and despite spending big they also tend to earn big most years. That swings the focus to the man at the helm of the football program.
I'll start with my opinion on Jones, and understand that this is precisely that. I didn't want him in 2013, but at the same time we were swinging and missing with most other targets of note. In the end, Butch Jones was a beacon of hope in a storm of negativity surrounding the program after the blight that was the Derek Dooley era (or better put error) at Tennessee. He wasn't what you'd want for a program like Tennessee, but he was much better than the alternative of hiring another middling Group of Five type coach. Remember, Cincinnati was still in the Big East at that time and that conference was still considered a premier one for the most part despite the loss of a number of bigger name programs to other conferences. He was a hire that made sense, for the most part. That said, I had always noted his propensity to lose big games and felt he'd usually backed into most of his conference titles. He also seemed to have trouble managing personnel decisions and those issues were of concern to me. Thus far, he is who I thought he was, and that was a step up from where we were, but not a return to the glory days of old.
That brings us to the question of whether or not to make a change, and my answer is a bit involved. Tennessee tends to have strong budgets and annual earnings, but they also tend to have large expenditures that nearly keep pace with the earnings. In 2015-16, Tennessee earned over $140 million, but they also spent over $128 million. This year's anticipated athletic budget is close to $134 million, but that before upcoming earnings versus upcoming expenditures, and those expenditures can easily grow, especially if Tennessee is forced to make a change in significant programs. Well, firing a football staff and then hiring a new one is a pretty significant expenditure, and it's impossible to pretend that football is the only program in Knoxville facing a possible change at the top. Butch Jones still has a sizable buyout, and with all his new hires they could potentially add another huge hit to the budget and possibly even the surplus, which at last check was around $12 million. In essence, getting rid of Jones and company could run anywhere from $8-10 million, and while that doesn't all have to be paid out at once and can be reduced as they find other jobs, it's still a big hit against what can be spent on a new coach and staff.
Tennessee also has an impressive recruiting class in the works, and while that could change and if it does the argument may change, right now a change in staff would have a very detrimental impact on that class, one that current stands at #6 nationally and tops in the SEC. Current players would no doubt transfer and it would result in a setback that would have to be countered by a new hire of note, one that brings energy and strong recruiting chops. Such a hire would likely take a fair amount of money to bring on board, along with the cost of their new staff. If the finances aren't in order to make a change, doing so for the sake of doing so would mean a significant risk of regression in the program.
That said, there is a point at which the results become so poor or the internal turmoil of the program such that a change is necessary. If players are transferring, if there is a clear lack of effort by the team, if there are fights within the program, if recruiting begins to fall apart, Tennessee's hand will be forced regardless of the financial situation. While fans and boosters like to think they can influence change, that external temperature matters little unless people become willing to fund the change they want to see. That doesn't mean that they can't force an athletic director to make a change; it means that they may force a change that doesn't match their vision of the future for the program. Change is not always a good thing. Remember the Fulmer to Kiffin to Dooley transition? Change can go sideways on a program in a hurry if that program isn't prepared to vet and pay for the right coach and staff.
Where does that leave things? I don't think we really know yet. The frustration is palpable, but wins over the next three games would have the effect of dousing those flames. Beyond Alabama, no program looks untouchable, so the ultimate measure of the program is internal. Does the team rally behind Jones and push to win moving forward? Can the players overcoming coaching errors, or can the coaches overcome injuries and personnel issues? If not, does the whole thing fall apart?
If Tennessee is sitting at 3-3 and 0-3 in the SEC on October 15th, the damage inside and outside the program may be such that no financial considerations will save Jones. However, muster an 8-4 or 9-3 finish, and I think the buyout and finances will save Jones for another season at least. However, I would expect athletic director John Currie to be setting aside the money for a future change heading into and through the 2018 season. At this point, it would take winning the East and 10+ games to truly solidify Jones's position at Tennessee. Not one or the other, but both. The road is tough to see that happening by the end of this season, but it's also difficult to gauge whether or not the internal and external issues will force Currie's hand.
On this end, I'm fine with change if and when it makes sense financially and functionally. If the team isn't ready for change and the money isn't there, a big setback will be in the cards. However, if the money and the pulse of the team is such that a change can be made without significant transfers and with sufficient money in place to make a quality hire, we've probably seen as good as it gets with Butch Jones.
When the time comes to part ways, for my part I will say goodbye with a thank you. He made us a force in recruiting again. He re-energized a fan base that had been beaten to a pulp emotionally by the prior two head coaches. He made us an annual bowl team and a team of note once more, and oversaw our return to the top 25. While we may never get over the championship hump with Jones, we do owe him a debt of gratitude for what he did do for us, and we should never forget that. Unfortunately, good isn't good enough at Tennessee, a place where conference and national championships are part of the standard.
well Said
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