The Butch Jones era at Tennessee has been a mixed bag. It's seen Tennessee progress from a perennial 7 loss team to back-to-back 9 win seasons, but those 9 win seasons have also come with heartbreakingly disappointing losses. Tennessee has the talent to be a top program in the SEC, but have yet to have better than the 2nd place in the SEC East or the 4th best record in the conference overall. That was enough for fans at one point as the rebuild was showing improving results, but now the rebuild is into year five and the pieces appear to be in place. Tennessee has a culture of winning and certainly the expectation of such, they have the talent and facilities, and despite spending big they also tend to earn big most years. That swings the focus to the man at the helm of the football program.
I'll start with my opinion on Jones, and understand that this is precisely that. I didn't want him in 2013, but at the same time we were swinging and missing with most other targets of note. In the end, Butch Jones was a beacon of hope in a storm of negativity surrounding the program after the blight that was the Derek Dooley era (or better put error) at Tennessee. He wasn't what you'd want for a program like Tennessee, but he was much better than the alternative of hiring another middling Group of Five type coach. Remember, Cincinnati was still in the Big East at that time and that conference was still considered a premier one for the most part despite the loss of a number of bigger name programs to other conferences. He was a hire that made sense, for the most part. That said, I had always noted his propensity to lose big games and felt he'd usually backed into most of his conference titles. He also seemed to have trouble managing personnel decisions and those issues were of concern to me. Thus far, he is who I thought he was, and that was a step up from where we were, but not a return to the glory days of old.
That brings us to the question of whether or not to make a change, and my answer is a bit involved. Tennessee tends to have strong budgets and annual earnings, but they also tend to have large expenditures that nearly keep pace with the earnings. In 2015-16, Tennessee earned over $140 million, but they also spent over $128 million. This year's anticipated athletic budget is close to $134 million, but that before upcoming earnings versus upcoming expenditures, and those expenditures can easily grow, especially if Tennessee is forced to make a change in significant programs. Well, firing a football staff and then hiring a new one is a pretty significant expenditure, and it's impossible to pretend that football is the only program in Knoxville facing a possible change at the top. Butch Jones still has a sizable buyout, and with all his new hires they could potentially add another huge hit to the budget and possibly even the surplus, which at last check was around $12 million. In essence, getting rid of Jones and company could run anywhere from $8-10 million, and while that doesn't all have to be paid out at once and can be reduced as they find other jobs, it's still a big hit against what can be spent on a new coach and staff.
Tennessee also has an impressive recruiting class in the works, and while that could change and if it does the argument may change, right now a change in staff would have a very detrimental impact on that class, one that current stands at #6 nationally and tops in the SEC. Current players would no doubt transfer and it would result in a setback that would have to be countered by a new hire of note, one that brings energy and strong recruiting chops. Such a hire would likely take a fair amount of money to bring on board, along with the cost of their new staff. If the finances aren't in order to make a change, doing so for the sake of doing so would mean a significant risk of regression in the program.
That said, there is a point at which the results become so poor or the internal turmoil of the program such that a change is necessary. If players are transferring, if there is a clear lack of effort by the team, if there are fights within the program, if recruiting begins to fall apart, Tennessee's hand will be forced regardless of the financial situation. While fans and boosters like to think they can influence change, that external temperature matters little unless people become willing to fund the change they want to see. That doesn't mean that they can't force an athletic director to make a change; it means that they may force a change that doesn't match their vision of the future for the program. Change is not always a good thing. Remember the Fulmer to Kiffin to Dooley transition? Change can go sideways on a program in a hurry if that program isn't prepared to vet and pay for the right coach and staff.
Where does that leave things? I don't think we really know yet. The frustration is palpable, but wins over the next three games would have the effect of dousing those flames. Beyond Alabama, no program looks untouchable, so the ultimate measure of the program is internal. Does the team rally behind Jones and push to win moving forward? Can the players overcoming coaching errors, or can the coaches overcome injuries and personnel issues? If not, does the whole thing fall apart?
If Tennessee is sitting at 3-3 and 0-3 in the SEC on October 15th, the damage inside and outside the program may be such that no financial considerations will save Jones. However, muster an 8-4 or 9-3 finish, and I think the buyout and finances will save Jones for another season at least. However, I would expect athletic director John Currie to be setting aside the money for a future change heading into and through the 2018 season. At this point, it would take winning the East and 10+ games to truly solidify Jones's position at Tennessee. Not one or the other, but both. The road is tough to see that happening by the end of this season, but it's also difficult to gauge whether or not the internal and external issues will force Currie's hand.
On this end, I'm fine with change if and when it makes sense financially and functionally. If the team isn't ready for change and the money isn't there, a big setback will be in the cards. However, if the money and the pulse of the team is such that a change can be made without significant transfers and with sufficient money in place to make a quality hire, we've probably seen as good as it gets with Butch Jones.
When the time comes to part ways, for my part I will say goodbye with a thank you. He made us a force in recruiting again. He re-energized a fan base that had been beaten to a pulp emotionally by the prior two head coaches. He made us an annual bowl team and a team of note once more, and oversaw our return to the top 25. While we may never get over the championship hump with Jones, we do owe him a debt of gratitude for what he did do for us, and we should never forget that. Unfortunately, good isn't good enough at Tennessee, a place where conference and national championships are part of the standard.
Monday, September 18, 2017
Tuesday, September 12, 2017
Indiana State Grades
Quarterbacks - Quinten Dormady was somehow both better and worse in this game than against Georgia Tech. If that doesn't make sense, I'll do my best to explain. Dormady was much more efficient against Indiana State on fewer passing attempts, tossing two touchdowns. However, he was also a bit more careless with the football, coughing up a fumble and throwing a pick. Jarrett Guarantano got his first real action and it was both underwhelming and impressive. He should have had two more passes end in completions, and he threw a nice touchdown pass to Jeff George among his four completions, but completing 33% of his passes and only rushing for six yards wasn't exactly an overwhelming performance. Dormady completed over 72% of his passes and the two quarterbacks combined for 3 touchdowns through the air. Not a great outing, but far from a bad one. The caliber of the opponent dings them on this one. They shouldn't have had the mistakes. C+
Running Backs - This is a mix of old and new news. Old news: John Kelly is still really good at football and the University of Tennessee's web team is still really bad at keeping the players straight on the stat sheet. New news: Ty Chandler, Tim Jordan, Trey Coleman, and Carlin Fils-aime are more than just serviceable backups, combining for 15 carries, 86 yards, and 2 touchdowns along with 2 receptions for 12 yards. Fils-aime has been a particularly impressive player in his limited career touches, with 17 carries for 99 yards and 4 touchdowns over the past two seasons. When it comes to Tennessee's game on the ground, there's been almost nothing to complain about. A
Receivers - Tennessee had 5 wide receivers that they rotated against Indiana State and...they did alright. The wideouts accounted for all the touchdown receptions. The running backs handled the rest of the receiving work with the exception of one reception by Eli Wolf, which resulted in Wolf missing the remainder of the game with an ankle sprain. I'll give the grade a bump for the limited receivers available combined with a solid performance, but I also have to deduct points for the lack of presence by senior tight end Ethan Wolf. He has to be a weapon for this team, and it hasn't materialized yet. B-
Offensive Line - All in all, the offensive line has been just fine. 8 tackles for loss allowed in 126 plays run, one sack allowed in 67 passing attempts, and a 5.22 yard per carry average. They've cleared the way for 6.06 yards per play with a mostly new group of playmakers at quarterback, receiver, and running back. They've been discombobulated at times, but they had a rough camp with regard to injuries. All things being equal, I have little to complain about. That said, they haven't been perfect by any means. B
Defensive Line - I think it's been hashed out more than enough that the defensive line has been playing off the ball and plenty of people don't like it. I would venture to say that given Georgia Tech's offense and the heavy shifting by Indiana State, it's been somewhat understandable. The question now is how the defensive line has handled their business, and against Indiana State the answer is more or less. Indiana State didn't pass much, so there wasn't much opportunity to bring a consistent pass rush, meaning they only had 2 quarterback hurries and one sack, but that's against only 19 passing attempts, so not great but not awful either. More noteworthy is the 11 tackles for loss mixed in among the 38 rushing attempts by Indiana State, who only averaged 3.2 yards per carry. Not the best game, but far from awful given the defense played pretty vanilla most of the day. B-
Linebackers - Tennessee has had 12 tackles for loss on the season. 7.5 of that has come from the defensive line or defensive backs. In other words, the linebackers have not been making many plays behind the line of scrimmage. My point being that although they've racked up the tackles, they've been making plays after gains by the offense. The top three linebackers are also the Vols top tacklers, so it hasn't been all bad by any means, but when only 3 of the 71 tackles are tackles for loss, something isn't quite kosher. C-
Defensive Backs - It's been hard to get a real feel for how good or bad this group may be. So far Tennessee's opponents have accounted for 62 rushing attempts and 14.5 passing attempts per game. The secondary has barely been called to action, and unfortunately that has led to the group losing focus at times. Clearly that's less than ideal, but they've only allowed a 48.3% completion percentage and one touchdown through two games. If I were being totally honest, this grade should be an incomplete, but given the help in run support from the safeties and nickel and the completion percentage, I'll settle for giving this group a C+ and re-evaluate them as we go forward and see more opponents who can pass more than 20 times in a game.
Special Teams - Still special. Trevor Daniel is one of the best punters in the country. Tennessee is 12th nationally in kickoff return average despite Evan Berry not yet being 100%. Marquez Callaway is 21st nationally in punt return average despite only having four returns so far. Tennessee is tied for 16th nationally in kickoff average and 19th in touchback average. They haven't kicked a field goal yet but Aaron Medley is perfect on PATs despite having kicked 12 through two games, good for 15th nationally in PAT attempts per game. Basically perfect so far. A
Coaching - This wasn't perfect, but all things considered the plan was solid, it worked well, the rotation of the quarterbacks and running backs was fine, there were no major injuries, and there weren't any significant coaching flubs. Nothing special occurred, but nothing problematic did either. Solid B.
Running Backs - This is a mix of old and new news. Old news: John Kelly is still really good at football and the University of Tennessee's web team is still really bad at keeping the players straight on the stat sheet. New news: Ty Chandler, Tim Jordan, Trey Coleman, and Carlin Fils-aime are more than just serviceable backups, combining for 15 carries, 86 yards, and 2 touchdowns along with 2 receptions for 12 yards. Fils-aime has been a particularly impressive player in his limited career touches, with 17 carries for 99 yards and 4 touchdowns over the past two seasons. When it comes to Tennessee's game on the ground, there's been almost nothing to complain about. A
Receivers - Tennessee had 5 wide receivers that they rotated against Indiana State and...they did alright. The wideouts accounted for all the touchdown receptions. The running backs handled the rest of the receiving work with the exception of one reception by Eli Wolf, which resulted in Wolf missing the remainder of the game with an ankle sprain. I'll give the grade a bump for the limited receivers available combined with a solid performance, but I also have to deduct points for the lack of presence by senior tight end Ethan Wolf. He has to be a weapon for this team, and it hasn't materialized yet. B-
Offensive Line - All in all, the offensive line has been just fine. 8 tackles for loss allowed in 126 plays run, one sack allowed in 67 passing attempts, and a 5.22 yard per carry average. They've cleared the way for 6.06 yards per play with a mostly new group of playmakers at quarterback, receiver, and running back. They've been discombobulated at times, but they had a rough camp with regard to injuries. All things being equal, I have little to complain about. That said, they haven't been perfect by any means. B
Defensive Line - I think it's been hashed out more than enough that the defensive line has been playing off the ball and plenty of people don't like it. I would venture to say that given Georgia Tech's offense and the heavy shifting by Indiana State, it's been somewhat understandable. The question now is how the defensive line has handled their business, and against Indiana State the answer is more or less. Indiana State didn't pass much, so there wasn't much opportunity to bring a consistent pass rush, meaning they only had 2 quarterback hurries and one sack, but that's against only 19 passing attempts, so not great but not awful either. More noteworthy is the 11 tackles for loss mixed in among the 38 rushing attempts by Indiana State, who only averaged 3.2 yards per carry. Not the best game, but far from awful given the defense played pretty vanilla most of the day. B-
Linebackers - Tennessee has had 12 tackles for loss on the season. 7.5 of that has come from the defensive line or defensive backs. In other words, the linebackers have not been making many plays behind the line of scrimmage. My point being that although they've racked up the tackles, they've been making plays after gains by the offense. The top three linebackers are also the Vols top tacklers, so it hasn't been all bad by any means, but when only 3 of the 71 tackles are tackles for loss, something isn't quite kosher. C-
Defensive Backs - It's been hard to get a real feel for how good or bad this group may be. So far Tennessee's opponents have accounted for 62 rushing attempts and 14.5 passing attempts per game. The secondary has barely been called to action, and unfortunately that has led to the group losing focus at times. Clearly that's less than ideal, but they've only allowed a 48.3% completion percentage and one touchdown through two games. If I were being totally honest, this grade should be an incomplete, but given the help in run support from the safeties and nickel and the completion percentage, I'll settle for giving this group a C+ and re-evaluate them as we go forward and see more opponents who can pass more than 20 times in a game.
Special Teams - Still special. Trevor Daniel is one of the best punters in the country. Tennessee is 12th nationally in kickoff return average despite Evan Berry not yet being 100%. Marquez Callaway is 21st nationally in punt return average despite only having four returns so far. Tennessee is tied for 16th nationally in kickoff average and 19th in touchback average. They haven't kicked a field goal yet but Aaron Medley is perfect on PATs despite having kicked 12 through two games, good for 15th nationally in PAT attempts per game. Basically perfect so far. A
Coaching - This wasn't perfect, but all things considered the plan was solid, it worked well, the rotation of the quarterbacks and running backs was fine, there were no major injuries, and there weren't any significant coaching flubs. Nothing special occurred, but nothing problematic did either. Solid B.
Wednesday, September 6, 2017
Georgia Tech Coaching Grades
This isn't about individual players but about the game plan and adjustments made in the game. My grades will be influenced by how the staff adjusted during the game in order to better execute. Let's dive in.
Offense: This was definitely a tale of two halves in this game, but I think it actually showed something very promising; Larry Scott has a clear understanding of how to make adjustments during the game. The first half saw the offense account for grand totals of 28 plays, 94 yards, and 3.36 yards per play. Their lone first half touchdown came following a fumble recovery. John Kelly had 10 touches for 53 yards and a touchdown. The second half and overtime? 31 plays, 287 yards, and 9.26 yards per play. That is an enormous swing, and considering that quarterback Quinten Dormady went into the half having completed a bleak 8-20 for 52 yards yet finished the game by throwing for 12-17 for 169 yards and 2 touchdowns in the second half plus overtime. John Kelly's second half/OT? 14 touches for 110 yards and three touchdowns. While that first half production was pretty plainly a D or worse grade, his second half was a solid A. I'll split the difference and give Larry Scott and staff a grade of C+ for the game. The initial game plan was severely flawed, but the adjustments made in the game were excellent.
Defense: The early results were fairly promising. Tennessee was containing the Yellow Jacket offense. They appeared to have a great plan of attack. The defense was flying to the football and showing aggressive play. Then TaQuon Marshall hit Ricky Jeune on a 44 yard pass in which corner Justin Martin was out of position and everything fell apart. Prior to that moment, Tennessee had limited Tech to 11 plays and 32 yards. The floodgates were open after that moment. Tennessee had opted to have the defensive linemen play off the football, giving them time to read and react. The linebackers prior to that pass play were attacking and aggressive. The defensive backs played loose coverage in order to better beat potential blocks so that they could react to option plays to the edge. Suddenly, everyone was playing tentatively. The defense had been knocked back on their heels and with the exception of a couple forced fumbles, Tennessee would never fully regain form in the game. The entire defense became reactive instead of proactive, meaning they could no longer disrupt plays and were going to constantly give up yards in chunks. Georgia Tech is tough to defend at the best of times, but the initial instinct of Bob Shoop to attack with the linebackers, give the defensive line a cushion to react to the blocks, and have the defensive backs offer up a cushion to react. However, the defensive backs gave too much cushion. There is a big difference between 3-4 yards off the receiver and 8-10 yards off. The linebackers were too quick to let off the aggressive approach when a big play finally happened. The defensive ends were solid, but the defensive tackles were too content to be space eaters. The intentions weren't terrible, but the plan was abandoned too quickly and the adjustments never came. Shoop lost control of his defense in this game, and that cannot be allowed to happen the rest of the season. I'll give Shoop a C- only because of the forced turnovers. It's obvious he worked with the defenders on stripping the ball, and three forced fumbles and two recoveries is worth a bump in the grade.
Special Teams: After something of a rough season on special teams last year compared to seasons past under Jones, Tennessee looked every bit their old selves against Georgia Tech. Trevor Daniel regularly flipped the field. Evan Berry and company handled returns well. Paul Bain's blocked field goal was the cherry on top, and Aaron Medley continued to be sure-footed on kickoffs and PATs. I have nothing bad to say about the results here at all. Solid A performance. Keep it up, boys.
Head Coach/Game Management: Butch Jones continues to be frustratingly inconsistent when it comes to game management, but he does seem to motivate his team to play, even when, or perhaps especially when, the odds are against them. Even so, Jones has to become a better game manager. He bailed out Georgia Tech at one point when they were looking at a delay of game. At the end of the first half, he failed to utilize his two timeouts despite having the potential to score had he done so, running a play without any further planning along the sideline before going for it on 4th and 2. Game management continues to be one of Jones's biggest weaknesses, and at this point it seems unlikely to be an area he improves in. However, as Les Miles proved at LSU, you can win in spite of that particular weakness. For keeping his team motivated and believing they could win, I'll go ahead and give him a bump to a C+, but if this were a loss he'd be solidly in D territory.
Overall: This was incredibly ugly. Despite the special teams excellence and strong close, Tennessee failed to show up to start the game and Butch Jones neglected to properly manage the clock. The defense really didn't show up at all after the first couple GT possessions other than some standout individual performances that led to turnovers. Tennessee needed to come out and have a stronger showing, but yet again I'm left wondering if that will ever be the M.O. of a Butch Jones coached team. I'll assign a C grade because they got the win, but even against a frustrating Georgia Tech offense, they made that defense look too good for too long and failed to capitalize on excellent field position numerous times.
Offense: This was definitely a tale of two halves in this game, but I think it actually showed something very promising; Larry Scott has a clear understanding of how to make adjustments during the game. The first half saw the offense account for grand totals of 28 plays, 94 yards, and 3.36 yards per play. Their lone first half touchdown came following a fumble recovery. John Kelly had 10 touches for 53 yards and a touchdown. The second half and overtime? 31 plays, 287 yards, and 9.26 yards per play. That is an enormous swing, and considering that quarterback Quinten Dormady went into the half having completed a bleak 8-20 for 52 yards yet finished the game by throwing for 12-17 for 169 yards and 2 touchdowns in the second half plus overtime. John Kelly's second half/OT? 14 touches for 110 yards and three touchdowns. While that first half production was pretty plainly a D or worse grade, his second half was a solid A. I'll split the difference and give Larry Scott and staff a grade of C+ for the game. The initial game plan was severely flawed, but the adjustments made in the game were excellent.
Defense: The early results were fairly promising. Tennessee was containing the Yellow Jacket offense. They appeared to have a great plan of attack. The defense was flying to the football and showing aggressive play. Then TaQuon Marshall hit Ricky Jeune on a 44 yard pass in which corner Justin Martin was out of position and everything fell apart. Prior to that moment, Tennessee had limited Tech to 11 plays and 32 yards. The floodgates were open after that moment. Tennessee had opted to have the defensive linemen play off the football, giving them time to read and react. The linebackers prior to that pass play were attacking and aggressive. The defensive backs played loose coverage in order to better beat potential blocks so that they could react to option plays to the edge. Suddenly, everyone was playing tentatively. The defense had been knocked back on their heels and with the exception of a couple forced fumbles, Tennessee would never fully regain form in the game. The entire defense became reactive instead of proactive, meaning they could no longer disrupt plays and were going to constantly give up yards in chunks. Georgia Tech is tough to defend at the best of times, but the initial instinct of Bob Shoop to attack with the linebackers, give the defensive line a cushion to react to the blocks, and have the defensive backs offer up a cushion to react. However, the defensive backs gave too much cushion. There is a big difference between 3-4 yards off the receiver and 8-10 yards off. The linebackers were too quick to let off the aggressive approach when a big play finally happened. The defensive ends were solid, but the defensive tackles were too content to be space eaters. The intentions weren't terrible, but the plan was abandoned too quickly and the adjustments never came. Shoop lost control of his defense in this game, and that cannot be allowed to happen the rest of the season. I'll give Shoop a C- only because of the forced turnovers. It's obvious he worked with the defenders on stripping the ball, and three forced fumbles and two recoveries is worth a bump in the grade.
Special Teams: After something of a rough season on special teams last year compared to seasons past under Jones, Tennessee looked every bit their old selves against Georgia Tech. Trevor Daniel regularly flipped the field. Evan Berry and company handled returns well. Paul Bain's blocked field goal was the cherry on top, and Aaron Medley continued to be sure-footed on kickoffs and PATs. I have nothing bad to say about the results here at all. Solid A performance. Keep it up, boys.
Head Coach/Game Management: Butch Jones continues to be frustratingly inconsistent when it comes to game management, but he does seem to motivate his team to play, even when, or perhaps especially when, the odds are against them. Even so, Jones has to become a better game manager. He bailed out Georgia Tech at one point when they were looking at a delay of game. At the end of the first half, he failed to utilize his two timeouts despite having the potential to score had he done so, running a play without any further planning along the sideline before going for it on 4th and 2. Game management continues to be one of Jones's biggest weaknesses, and at this point it seems unlikely to be an area he improves in. However, as Les Miles proved at LSU, you can win in spite of that particular weakness. For keeping his team motivated and believing they could win, I'll go ahead and give him a bump to a C+, but if this were a loss he'd be solidly in D territory.
Overall: This was incredibly ugly. Despite the special teams excellence and strong close, Tennessee failed to show up to start the game and Butch Jones neglected to properly manage the clock. The defense really didn't show up at all after the first couple GT possessions other than some standout individual performances that led to turnovers. Tennessee needed to come out and have a stronger showing, but yet again I'm left wondering if that will ever be the M.O. of a Butch Jones coached team. I'll assign a C grade because they got the win, but even against a frustrating Georgia Tech offense, they made that defense look too good for too long and failed to capitalize on excellent field position numerous times.
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