2017 Season Prediction

I confess that I'm still on the fence about many things and really nailing down a prediction isn't proving easy for me. There are still plenty of questions surrounding this team. In the end, it's come down to one of a handful of options: the safe choice, the pessimistic result, or the best-case scenario. So how to choose and evaluate my feelings on the projections for this season is now the big thing left to decide.

I'll be the first to admit I have questions about Butch Jones. I have since he was hired. I never thought his ceiling was going to be as high as fans would want it to be, and I long suspected he would become a victim of the renewed championship expectations in Knoxville once things stabilized. That still may be the case, but he did address one of my bigger criticisms; he went out and started making the best possible hires instead of just hiring his friends.

In fact, his impressive new hires are really the biggest reason I think Jones might just exceed his past limitations. Some head coaches make their assistants better like Nick Saban has always done, but a good group of assistants can elevate a head coach to a different level, which is very much what I think has taken place at Clemson under Dabo Swinney. Right now, Butch appears to have assembled a staff with the capacity to do that for him.

The roster has talent. It has a surprising amount of experience. It's still pretty unproven, however. Few of the highest rated former recruits on the roster have performed up to their high school rankings yet. However, proven production aside, the talent is present and the upside for the team is pretty obvious. Well, as long as they're healthy, which was a big issue last year.

Then there are the opponents. Georgia still has to prove they have playmakers at receiver, an improved offensive line, and a defense that can stop opponents consistently. Florida has to have their team on the field instead of suspended, replace the bulk of the defense, and settle on a quarterback. South Carolina has arguably the SEC's least ideal defensive end situation. Georgia Tech is banking on a new quarterback to lead the offense. LSU has a new head man, a roster being battered by attrition, and a quarterback situation that they wish included a game manager. In fact, they've converted the #1 safety in the last class into a wide receiver just trying to make the passing game better. Bottom line, aside from maybe Alabama, no opponent is unbeatable.

Tennessee has a pretty solid situation at the offensive skill positions and quarterback, and a very strong situation on the offensive line (when everyone is healthy and at practice). They have two five stars and a four star leading the way at end to replace 1st round draft pick Derek Barnett. They return the defensive tackles, who are healthier than at the end of last season. The linebackers are fairly deep and pretty talented. The secondary is settled at safety and deeper at corner than a year ago. The corners aren't a finished product yet, but they appear to be improved over last season with a new position coach.

So will I play it safe, go all in, or low ball it in order to keep people happier regardless of the outcome? Well, I'm not much of a gambler, but not because I haven't done it before. In fact, I used to do it too much, especially playing poker. I was a very aggressive player, which meant that I either won big or lost big. In a true gambler's spirit, I'm going all in on this team. The truth is that there really is a limit on being snakebit unless you're the Cubs or Red Sox, and even they overcame the unlucky streaks eventually.

10-2 regular season with losses to Georgia and Alabama. As much as I would love to see Tennessee top the Dawgs again, at some point talent matters and Georgia has it for days. They have experience as well. None of their question marks appear to be crippling, so overcoming them looks pretty practical. Alabama is...well, Alabama. I'd love to tell you that Tennessee is as talented as them, but we aren't that talented. I'd love to say we had a coach on Saban's level, but aside from maybe Urban Meyer that doesn't exist. They are proven at every level on both sides of the ball in Tuscaloosa, same as usual because even the backups played and played well last season. Alabama may not be running the table, but as far as Tennessee's schedule goes, they're the best on the slate.

I think the Georgia Tech hand-wringing is a bit overblown. GT can certainly catch teams off-guard, but this idea of them as some explosive giant slayer is certainly a myth. Last season, their biggest win over a Power 5 opponent was 15 points against Kentucky in the bowl game. That was their biggest win since their 15 point bowl win in 2014. That 11-3 campaign in 2014-15 is as good as it's gotten for the Rambling Wreck. Under Paul Johnson, the Yellow Jackets have averaged 7.8 wins overall and 4.7 conference wins per season with an average division finish of 2.6 in the standings. The last two seasons have represented their worst division finishes under Johnson and the conference appears to be leaving Georgia Tech behind and everyone appears to be figuring them out.

Unfortunately, that probably means no SEC title game again. I've tried finding two losses on Georgia's schedule, but if they are playing up to the level they should Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida are probably the only possible threats and I would guess that Auburn is the only likely loss if one is coming in the regular season. I feel the same way for Alabama, ultimately, and that may actually mean Alabama fails to make the title game too if they drop the Auburn game. Time will tell if Auburn is fool's gold, but I have to admit that they look bright and shiny right now. I'm saying the title game is Georgia versus the winner of Alabama-Auburn. I would also place Alabama and Auburn on alert against their respective ACC foes. Both look pretty dangerous to draw early in the season.

Now, missing out on the division title might be a blessing in disguise, especially if there is a season finish in which no SEC team has fewer than two losses, which is certainly possible. Tennessee would then have the earliest loss of the bunch and arguably the best standing in the rankings at that point. That's not to say the Vols are heading to the playoff as I think that would likely go to the conference champ, but it would very likely put them first in line for a New Year's Six bowl. The Sugar Bowl is part of the playoff this year, so although I'm guessing here I think the Peach Bowl would be the likely landing spot. I'm of the opinion that Florida State wins the ACC and represents them in the playoff, but I don't think Virginia Tech will be that far behind and I am of the opinion that they will represent the ACC in the New Year's Six bowls against the Vols in a rematch of the 2009 Peach Bowl. That particular bowl has been particularly unkind to Tennessee, with the Vols going 1-4 in their five appearances, but I think this gives them their second Peach Bowl victory in front of another impressive crowd.

This pushes Butch Jones to his first 11 win season since 2009 at Central Michigan and first double digit win season since 2011 at Cincinnati. I would expect some staff turnover following the season, but I think Jones will also see a nice raise and extension that will either please or anger fans depending on their take on Jones. It would be Tennessee's first 11 win season since 2001 and also their first double digit winning season since 2007.

Another thing worth noting is this: since Butch Jones arrived at Tennessee, I've predicted the team to go 5-7, 7-6, 9-4, and 12-2. With the exception of last season, I've generally had a pretty good bead on what the team would do under Jones. This season is a lot tougher to get a read on, but I'm generally optimistic because I think the changes that have taken place in Knoxville have been for the better. We'll see if my optimism is ultimately rewarded.