Through six games, it's been mostly bad news where the record is concerned, but what about statistically? Well, there are areas of obvious improvement, areas of obvious regression, and probably a lot more in common with the first six games of last season than most would think. Tennessee's defense is pretty much on par with their defense from last season through six games and given they held two early-season opponents to under 200 yards of total offense, that means that the defense isn't getting beaten as badly against better opponents. The Vols gave up 422.5 yards per game to Auburn, Florida, West Virginia, and Georgia through six in 2018 while allowing just 164 per game to UTEP and ETSU. This season, Florida and Georgia did pile up the yards to the tune of 483.5 yards per game, but the other four games the Vols gave up just 296.25 per game. As far as averages go, the difference through six games in yards per game allowed is just 0.2 yards per game. The defense has just two fewer tackles for loss than last season, three more sacks, and double the turnovers through six games as opposed to last season. Long story made short, the defense is pretty much on par with last season's defense or better in some areas.
That must mean the issue is the offense, right? Yes and no. The offense is averaging 3.7 fewer points per game through six games and 8.8 fewer yards per game, but the yardage difference isn't statistically significant. The points are, and there is a direct correlation to explain the why behind it. It's turnovers. Tennessee had three turnovers through six games last season. This season, they've had 12. While Tennessee has forced more turnovers, they essentially have broken even in turnover margin this year compared to a 2:1 turnover margin through six last year. The offensive line is allowing fewer tackles for loss and pretty much the same number of sacks through six games, so the bottom line is these turnovers fall on the quarterbacks and skill position players. Now, the quarterbacks do have three more touchdowns so far this season compared to last season, but the running backs have six fewer touchdowns on the year. The inability of the running backs to punch it into the end zone is yet another factor in the downfall of the offense this season. Yardage is great, but it means nothing if you aren't scoring. If not for Brent Cimaglia having a strong start to his season, the Vols would be scoring significantly fewer points per game.
So what does all this mean? Nothing. Not a thing. For their current season averages, the Vols are better than last year. How can that be though, right? Well, the answer is quite simple. Tennessee won one more game in 2018 and essentially collapsed down the stretch. Meanwhile, Tennessee this season has been steadily improving and, as a young team, should continue to improve. If they do so, there's no reason for them to collapse. While South Carolina and Missouri should be tough opponents, other than Alabama there's no reason to think Tennessee can't win five of the six remaining games with continued improvement and decent health.
Today against Mississippi State, we saw the best Tennessee defense we've seen in quite some time against an SEC foe. The offense, while not necessarily explosive, was able to keep the defense fresh and could have had another six to fourteen points if not for turnovers. The scoreboard doesn't entirely tell the tale for how soundly Tennessee manhandled Mississippi State.
Let's consider the remainder of the schedule:
Alabama: I'm not going to spend much time here. Alabama might not be as good defensively as the past few seasons, but they are an offensive juggernaut. They are beating opponents 51-17 and SEC opponents 51-27.3 per game. Tennessee should consider it a good day if they keep the game within 21 points because only one team has managed to do that all season.
South Carolina: I don't know who this Gamecocks squad is yet. Are they the team who lost to Missouri 34-14 or the one that beat Georgia 20-17? The Gamecocks are 3-3 and that record reflects how inconsistent they've been. Maybe the Florida game clears things up. Probably not though. Your guess is as good as mine as to how this game goes.
UAB: The Blazers are 4-1 and should be 5-1 by the end of the day today. Good for them. They haven't played anyone of consequence. Tennessee should be too much for them as long as the Vols show up to play.
Kentucky: Mississippi State beat Kentucky by 15. The Wildcats are losing 10-0 to Arkansas as I write this. Kentucky may not win an SEC game this season. They simply haven't recovered from the Florida loss, and it seems like everyone has their number now.
Missouri: The Tigers should be 5-1 by the end of the day. They are playing excellent football since week one. Week one did still see them lose to Wyoming and Kelly Bryant is the key to that offense right now. If Bryant is healthy, this one is pretty tough. If he's not, this becomes a very different ball game.
Vanderbilt: On the one hand, you shouldn't sleep on a team that has been beating you like Vanderbilt has. On the other hand, Vanderbilt has been pretty awful and struggled to get their one win over Northern Illinois. They lost to UNLV today in an uncompetitive game. If the Vols lose this one, it might just overtake Georgia State as the worst loss of the season.
A realistic finish right now might be 5-7, but it's not inconceivable the Vols could get to 7-5. It would take a lot of breaks going their way, but this team is getting it figured out now and if they can keep forcing turnovers and negative plays, they can make their own breaks as they finish out the season. The one thing they simply cannot afford to do is fade again. They need to make November theirs again this season and close the year out strong. It's certainly possible they can do just that.
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