I didn't want to touch this one. I figured it would blow over fairly quickly. After all, recruiting rankings are fluid right up until National Signing Day, so a couple of days of outrage and things mellow out until the next round of recruiting rankings. That's how it usually goes, but not this time. Nope. For some reason, the chatter just keeps growing. Fans are getting angrier and angrier.
For those lucky enough to have missed the current perceived slight to the Vols, quarterback commitment Harrison Bailey saw his ranking with 247Sports drop 49 spots in the latest recruiting ranking update after a somewhat up and down showing at The Opening. Harrison Bailey was at one time ranked as high as #48 nationally very early in the rankings for the 2020 class back in February of 2018, and since then has seen his ranking with 247Sports dip to its current low of #210 nationally. He is holding steady as the #5 pro-style quarterback in the class.
For fans, who have developed a victim mentality both deserved and unwarranted at times, it adds 247Sports to a list of those who hate Tennessee, along with referees, ESPN, CBS, and presumably God. Now, on the victim mentality matter, fans have every reason to feel disrespected, but it's not the media or referees or SEC or the Lord above they have to blame. It's the University of Tennessee. It's mismanagement from the top on down that has led to this mess. Questionable athletic director hires led to bad head coaching hires, iffy staffs, poor recruiting results, underwhelming player development, etc. Honesty from the media or veering off onto other topics during Tennessee games when the Vols aren't performing is all a consequence of over a decade of mismanagement and poor play.
ESPN absolutely does not hate Tennessee. That would be cutting their nose off to spite their face. Knoxville, as of 2017, was tied for the #4 market for college football in the country. Nashville tied for #6. Feel free to toss in at least portions of the viewing audience in some of the other top ten markets like Birmingham, Atlanta, and Greenville and you can see why ESPN isn't trying to run off Tennessee fans. Knoxville is the #60 market for television overall, but when it comes to college football the numbers skyrocket. Trust me, ESPN knows this.
Similar for CBS's Tennessee games. They know they get a boost from Vol fans when they air them. They aren't looking to run you off. They also can't ask announcers to spend too much time talking about a lopsided blowout loss by Tennessee again. Guys, I've been in the booth. You have to have something to talk about, and frankly, there's only so much you can say about one-sided contests.
247Sports isn't out to get anyone. GoVols247 is among the top 15 to 20 sites for traffic every month in the 247Sports network. The idea that they want to run people off or attack Tennessee recruits because they didn't commit to Alabama or Georgia is ridiculous. They aren't seeking to run off subscribers. Heck, when it comes to Tennessee content, there aren't many sites that give Vol fans as much to read as 247Sports, especially when it comes to things that can be read for free.
What about the rankings though? Why did Harrison Bailey fall so much? First of all, he didn't fall quite the way some fans are making it out that he did. He's still #210 in the country and is well within the Top247. As a four-star prospect, he is a player expected to play professionally. He didn't drop to a three-star prospect. He fell within the top 210 players in the country. He fell somewhat because other guys at different positions clearly moved ahead of him. That happens. All the time.
However, the other factor is that a prior concern proved to still be lingering, and that is his quickness in making his drops, moving his feet, and getting the ball out quickly. These are things that can be fixed with coaching, of course. They aren't even necessarily things that are uncommon to find among quarterbacks coming out of high school. It's a different level of competition week in and week out.
Jack Miller and Harrison Bailey both participated in The Opening and both saw some changes to their rankings out of the event. The Opening is a big stage, and it's a big stage with many of the best players at every position showing up and showing out. That means that little issues with a player's game can be highlighted as they are compared to other top talents. It's normal to see players move up or down after such an event.
Now, many fans are pointing to the Rivals 5-Star Challenge, where Bailey won MVP, as proof that 247Sports is being biased against him. That's not particularly meaningful in 247Sports' ranking because they aren't hosting the event, don't attend the event, and don't get a chance to analyze players at that event. In truth, The Opening is probably the first chance they had to evaluate Bailey since he went to the Charlotte regional back in May. Rivals is going to rank Bailey accordingly since they hosted the event, and that will boost Bailey's composite ranking. It's silly to accuse 247Sports for being biased against a player because they haven't had all the same events to evaluate a recruit at.
As for a bias against Tennessee, spare me. Cooper Mays moved up 72 spots in the last update. He has moved from being ranked as low as #531 in February to being at an all-time high now for him of #236 and entering the Top247. You can't ask for honesty from recruiting analysts and then get angry when they give honest assessments.
I get it. Bailey is one of the earliest big names to join the class. He's a quarterback, so he's viewed as the leader of the recruiting class. Anything that happens with him, positive or negative, is going to be overblown. Feel free to disagree with the recruiting assessments or the importance of recruiting rankings or even the value of mobility within the pocket. I'm all for that. Express yourselves to your heart's content. However, stop making false accusations of bias. Stop playing the victim when any network or website does something you disagree with.
Settle down. Harrison Bailey is the same kid you were excited about before. He's still the future at quarterback for the Vols. He's still one of the most active player recruiters. He is everything you thought he was no matter what one site has him ranked at as a recruit. Ultimately, he's going to decide who he's going to be as a Tennessee quarterback, not rankings from a website. If you can't handle kids being ranked and evaluated, maybe don't follow recruiting until National Signing Day and just enjoy the final result. It might be healthier for you mentally.
Saturday, July 27, 2019
Wednesday, July 17, 2019
2019 Position Breakdowns: Tight End
Tennessee will likely find themselves relying on a couple of young tight ends this season in addition to their senior, but ultimately the general situation is viewed as better than it was last year when starter Dominick Wood-Anderson was basically the only guy who really fit the physical profile the coaches were looking for. Now they have at least three with the two freshmen, and depending on how a couple of other players have used the spring and summer, they could have as many as five that fit the bill.
Dominick Wood-Anderson was a JUCO that pretty much everyone wanted at the tight end position after moving there following being a high school quarterback and basketball player. He was solidly productive at Arizona Western, finishing his two years there with 45 receptions for 476 yards and 4 touchdowns while learning the position. Tennessee won the battle for his signature, looking to him to become the starter following the departure of Ethan Wolf. In his first year as the primary starter for Tennessee, he had 17 catches for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns, but given that it was his first season in the SEC and only his third playing tight end, it was at least good enough. Wood-Anderson took a big jump from his first season at Arizona Western to his second, more than doubling his receptions, and it's not a huge leap to think he could do the same this season. If not, it will likely mean one of the two highly-regarded freshmen have cut into his receptions. Wood-Anderson had 4 receptions for 19 yards and a touchdown in the spring game, so a good start toward a jump in receptions.
Jackson Lowe was an early enrollee this spring and quickly made his presence felt, not as though you were likely to miss the 6-4, 253-pounder. Lowe arrived probably needing to improve his strength some to further develop as a blocker, even though he wasn't exactly known for being the most explosive of receiving tight ends. That said, he can certainly make big plays as evidenced by his 16.2 yards per catch average in high school. He also put that on display in the spring game with 3 receptions for 60 yards, although his longest reception ended in a bit of tragedy has he lost some focus and fell victim to a defender's punch and fumbled away the ball. Lowe is almost certainly heading into the season as the #2 tight end, but it's certainly reasonable to expect his fellow freshman to push him for playing time.
Summer enrollee Sean Brown isn't going to be a receiving stat sheet stuffer, but if you want a player to help create a hole, the 6-5, 250-pound freshman is your man. Also a productive defender, Brown brings that defensive mentality to the tight end position, looking to punish the man across from him and advance to the next level. He was also an occasional ballcarrier for his high school team, although I don't know that we'll see that feature too much in Knoxville. If Lowe brings the receiving to the table, Brown is the enforcer on blocking downs. That said, I would expect Lowe to progress as a blocker and Brown to become a decent receiver. Brown could also fill the H-back/fullback role.
I know I've spent a lot of time on these two, but believe it or not they aren't the only scholarship tight ends on the roster. Austin Pope is easily the most experienced tight end on the roster, having spent three years at Tennessee so far. He's just not the most productive, having only caught three passes during his time with the Vols. His weight has fluctuated some. Ideally, he'll enter the next season around 240 or so and become part of the rotation at tight end. Pope was a very productive high school player who has been trying to strike the right balance between size and athleticism to get the job done. Last year he saw some time at fullback as well, a role he could continue to fill, although he may face new competition in that role.
Redshirt sophomore Princeton Fant has had a heck of a time finding his home on the roster, having been listed at wide receiver, running back, and tight end at different times. For now, tight end appears to be his official role, but he is a very strong candidate to fill the fullback role given his winding path. At 6-2, 230, he isn't necessarily the ideal fit for a tight end, but as an H-back/fullback type, he's exactly what you typically look for in that capacity.
Jacob Warren is a redshirt freshman and the tallest of the tight ends at 6-6. He arrived on campus looking much more like a skinny wide receiver than a tight end, but 20-some odd pounds later, he is filling out nicely. Warren racked up over 1,000 receiving yards in his last two years of high school and averaged 16.7 yards per reception, so he's a player who can certainly make an impact if he can grow into a contributor physically.
Andrew Craig made the move last season from preferred walk-on to contributor, even though he didn't add any statistics. He played in 11 games as a reserve tight end and goalline fullback, a role he'll look to continue to fill as a redshirt junior. When Craig was added, he was best known for his play as a defensive lineman although he had the build to play tight end. Now, he's fulfilled that vision.
It's a pretty similar situation right now with new preferred walk-on Hunter Salmon, who was a highly productive defensive end in high school who mostly spent his time at tight end clearing holes for the running backs. Salmon blocks with a defensive lineman mentality, similar to that of Brown. He doesn't just look to block his man; he looks to run him completely out of the play, put him on his back, and block the next man if he keeps his feet.
Up next, an article I'm sure many have been waiting for: the offensive line. Will the blocking again hold the offense back or will they clear the way back to bowl eligibility? We take a deeper look next time.
Dominick Wood-Anderson was a JUCO that pretty much everyone wanted at the tight end position after moving there following being a high school quarterback and basketball player. He was solidly productive at Arizona Western, finishing his two years there with 45 receptions for 476 yards and 4 touchdowns while learning the position. Tennessee won the battle for his signature, looking to him to become the starter following the departure of Ethan Wolf. In his first year as the primary starter for Tennessee, he had 17 catches for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns, but given that it was his first season in the SEC and only his third playing tight end, it was at least good enough. Wood-Anderson took a big jump from his first season at Arizona Western to his second, more than doubling his receptions, and it's not a huge leap to think he could do the same this season. If not, it will likely mean one of the two highly-regarded freshmen have cut into his receptions. Wood-Anderson had 4 receptions for 19 yards and a touchdown in the spring game, so a good start toward a jump in receptions.
Jackson Lowe was an early enrollee this spring and quickly made his presence felt, not as though you were likely to miss the 6-4, 253-pounder. Lowe arrived probably needing to improve his strength some to further develop as a blocker, even though he wasn't exactly known for being the most explosive of receiving tight ends. That said, he can certainly make big plays as evidenced by his 16.2 yards per catch average in high school. He also put that on display in the spring game with 3 receptions for 60 yards, although his longest reception ended in a bit of tragedy has he lost some focus and fell victim to a defender's punch and fumbled away the ball. Lowe is almost certainly heading into the season as the #2 tight end, but it's certainly reasonable to expect his fellow freshman to push him for playing time.
Summer enrollee Sean Brown isn't going to be a receiving stat sheet stuffer, but if you want a player to help create a hole, the 6-5, 250-pound freshman is your man. Also a productive defender, Brown brings that defensive mentality to the tight end position, looking to punish the man across from him and advance to the next level. He was also an occasional ballcarrier for his high school team, although I don't know that we'll see that feature too much in Knoxville. If Lowe brings the receiving to the table, Brown is the enforcer on blocking downs. That said, I would expect Lowe to progress as a blocker and Brown to become a decent receiver. Brown could also fill the H-back/fullback role.
I know I've spent a lot of time on these two, but believe it or not they aren't the only scholarship tight ends on the roster. Austin Pope is easily the most experienced tight end on the roster, having spent three years at Tennessee so far. He's just not the most productive, having only caught three passes during his time with the Vols. His weight has fluctuated some. Ideally, he'll enter the next season around 240 or so and become part of the rotation at tight end. Pope was a very productive high school player who has been trying to strike the right balance between size and athleticism to get the job done. Last year he saw some time at fullback as well, a role he could continue to fill, although he may face new competition in that role.
Redshirt sophomore Princeton Fant has had a heck of a time finding his home on the roster, having been listed at wide receiver, running back, and tight end at different times. For now, tight end appears to be his official role, but he is a very strong candidate to fill the fullback role given his winding path. At 6-2, 230, he isn't necessarily the ideal fit for a tight end, but as an H-back/fullback type, he's exactly what you typically look for in that capacity.
Jacob Warren is a redshirt freshman and the tallest of the tight ends at 6-6. He arrived on campus looking much more like a skinny wide receiver than a tight end, but 20-some odd pounds later, he is filling out nicely. Warren racked up over 1,000 receiving yards in his last two years of high school and averaged 16.7 yards per reception, so he's a player who can certainly make an impact if he can grow into a contributor physically.
Andrew Craig made the move last season from preferred walk-on to contributor, even though he didn't add any statistics. He played in 11 games as a reserve tight end and goalline fullback, a role he'll look to continue to fill as a redshirt junior. When Craig was added, he was best known for his play as a defensive lineman although he had the build to play tight end. Now, he's fulfilled that vision.
It's a pretty similar situation right now with new preferred walk-on Hunter Salmon, who was a highly productive defensive end in high school who mostly spent his time at tight end clearing holes for the running backs. Salmon blocks with a defensive lineman mentality, similar to that of Brown. He doesn't just look to block his man; he looks to run him completely out of the play, put him on his back, and block the next man if he keeps his feet.
Up next, an article I'm sure many have been waiting for: the offensive line. Will the blocking again hold the offense back or will they clear the way back to bowl eligibility? We take a deeper look next time.
Tuesday, July 16, 2019
My Media Day Impressions
Don't expect this to be a particularly long write-up, in part because no program wants to tip their hand too much in July. That said, I wanted to at least offer up my own impressions of what was said by Jeremy Pruitt, Jarrett Guarantano, Darrell Taylor, and Daniel Bituli today at SEC Media Days.
The first thing that really jumped out at me was Jeremy Pruitt making recruiting pitches from the podium. Pruitt fully understands that recruiting is the lifeblood of any program, and he pushed for recruits to jump on board with some of his comments, most notably a pitch to receiver recruits when he mentioned the four seniors that will be departing from the wide receiver corps. He didn't skip a beat. He just threw it out there that there was a need and playing time to be found in Knoxville.
Another big takeaway is how thrilled everyone seemed to be with the results from the staff shuffling this offseason. It's impossible to think that you can upgrade at offensive coordinator, move a Heisman winning quarterback to quarterback coach, add a national champion quarterback and former offensive coordinator to handle the wide receivers, and shift a well-regarded receivers coach to work with the running backs (who were already pretty gifted receivers), and not find some joy in those changes. Indeed, Pruitt and Guarantano both sang the praises of the changes and their impact on the offense and development of Guarantano as a signal-caller. The defense saw less drastic changes, but Derrick Ansley was praised as well for his work as the defensive coordinator and as the defensive backs coach, both of which are Pruitt's babies. If Jeremy Pruitt is happy with the defensive direction, you have to view that as a net positive.
Confidence. On the list of things I wasn't really expecting, confidence was well up there. Certainly, fans aren't nearly as confident as many have repeated to me predictions that suggest most are leaning toward six or seven wins, and many seem to be ready to waffle on that prediction the moment they have a small flashback to the past. However, Pruitt and company sounded like a group expecting to win 8-10 games this season, which would be a degree of success the vast majority of Tennessee fans could get behind in year two. Now, I'm not telling anyone that this team is going to do that. Don't get me wrong at all. However, this is a staff and group of players that don't sound ready to settle for just getting to a bowl game. They have greater ambitions than that and seem to believe they are capable of accomplishing those goals.
Another thing that was obvious was self-reflection and improvement. Pruitt talked about how his first several months on campus were spent trying to fix things, be it strength and conditioning, facilities, and organizational matters. While dealing in those areas, he lost a focus on building a relationship with the players. He let trust slip through the cracks. In Derek Dooley, the Vols had a big-picture guy who missed out on those relationships. In Butch Jones, they had someone who had the relationships in many cases, but let everything else fall to ruin. Pruitt seems determined not to allow himself to fall into either trap. Guarantano offered up an anecdote about sitting down to dinner with his head coach, hashing things out and developing the type of relationship that allows Pruitt to trust him and vice versa. These are the important steps in building the type of program everyone wants to see. Additionally, Pruitt owned the lack of effort and focus seen in certain games last year that led to the Vols missing out on a very achievable bowl berth.
Pruitt also touched on the very important physical development of this team, reflecting on the fact that he had very few 300+ pound players to work with last year. That has changed. A quick readthrough of the current roster shows a total of 21 players listed at over 300 pounds, and realistically there are probably going to be more when the roster is updated and finalized in the coming weeks. Darrell Taylor talked about his own development and growing comfort at his new weight as he approaches 260 pounds after arriving in Knoxville at around 210 following playing at wide receiver in high school.
Not all the news was ideal, of course. Pruitt didn't shy away from talking about the fact that there aren't many experienced guys on the defensive line and pointed out that the outside linebacker spots are a bit thin. There's still work to be done on the roster to get things to a place where Pruitt will be comfortable. Although he focused on the defensive side of the ball for depth and experience issues, for the most part, he also discussed the lack of experience at quarterback behind Guarantano and the necessity of preparing somebody to handle the backup duties. Although it wasn't explicitly mentioned, I would personally also toss in the running backs as a position group in need of further depth as this spring showed, when walk-on Chip Omer became a more important part of the Orange offense due to Carlin Fils-aime and Eric Gray being unavailable due to injury matters.
Aubrey Solomon and Deangelo Gibbs remain in relative limbo. Although there was an outbreak of excitement yesterday regarding their status, Pruitt confirmed today that there has been no response at this time from the NCAA. Now, while official word might not have come down yet, it's likely that excitement stemmed from something, whether it's a bit of positive feedback from the NCAA or a confirmation of support for the transfer from Michigan. Either way, the staff is moving forward like Solomon will play until something changes.
Trey Smith is also waiting to determine his availability. Pruitt did confirm that Smith and his doctors are working on a plan to allow him to play, whether or not such efforts will be successful is harder to determine. Blood clot issues are tricky to deal with, and whether or not he plays there will still be some degree of risk management and regular medical maintenance. Don't assume he will be available to play. Be hopeful, by all means, but ultimately if he can't play, that's alright. His health has to come first.
My personal takeaway from everything today is that the program is still very much a work in progress, but for those who expected it to take three years for the Vols to become a factor in the East, that may not be the case. The Vols certainly would have to be viewed as a significant long-shot to win the East, but they can have a big influence on where others fall in that pecking order. Tennessee pulled off big upsets last season against Auburn and Kentucky, and they should have won the South Carolina game. The bizarre turnover nightmare against Florida wasn't typical of the Vols last season, so that too seems like a game that could have at least been much more competitive than it was. If this team is fully bought in, which it sounds like they are, the only teams the Vols can't match up with from a talent perspective are Georgia and Alabama, and the coaching staff would seem upgraded. I'm not suggesting the Vols will win ten games, but finding eight wins on the schedule isn't particularly far-fetched. Two bye weeks in the season, falling before the Georgia and Missouri games, can't hurt any either. My takeaway is this is a bowl team and maybe even one capable of finishing as high as third in the East, and after going 9-15 the prior two seasons, that's a gigantic leap in the right direction.
The first thing that really jumped out at me was Jeremy Pruitt making recruiting pitches from the podium. Pruitt fully understands that recruiting is the lifeblood of any program, and he pushed for recruits to jump on board with some of his comments, most notably a pitch to receiver recruits when he mentioned the four seniors that will be departing from the wide receiver corps. He didn't skip a beat. He just threw it out there that there was a need and playing time to be found in Knoxville.
Another big takeaway is how thrilled everyone seemed to be with the results from the staff shuffling this offseason. It's impossible to think that you can upgrade at offensive coordinator, move a Heisman winning quarterback to quarterback coach, add a national champion quarterback and former offensive coordinator to handle the wide receivers, and shift a well-regarded receivers coach to work with the running backs (who were already pretty gifted receivers), and not find some joy in those changes. Indeed, Pruitt and Guarantano both sang the praises of the changes and their impact on the offense and development of Guarantano as a signal-caller. The defense saw less drastic changes, but Derrick Ansley was praised as well for his work as the defensive coordinator and as the defensive backs coach, both of which are Pruitt's babies. If Jeremy Pruitt is happy with the defensive direction, you have to view that as a net positive.
Confidence. On the list of things I wasn't really expecting, confidence was well up there. Certainly, fans aren't nearly as confident as many have repeated to me predictions that suggest most are leaning toward six or seven wins, and many seem to be ready to waffle on that prediction the moment they have a small flashback to the past. However, Pruitt and company sounded like a group expecting to win 8-10 games this season, which would be a degree of success the vast majority of Tennessee fans could get behind in year two. Now, I'm not telling anyone that this team is going to do that. Don't get me wrong at all. However, this is a staff and group of players that don't sound ready to settle for just getting to a bowl game. They have greater ambitions than that and seem to believe they are capable of accomplishing those goals.
Another thing that was obvious was self-reflection and improvement. Pruitt talked about how his first several months on campus were spent trying to fix things, be it strength and conditioning, facilities, and organizational matters. While dealing in those areas, he lost a focus on building a relationship with the players. He let trust slip through the cracks. In Derek Dooley, the Vols had a big-picture guy who missed out on those relationships. In Butch Jones, they had someone who had the relationships in many cases, but let everything else fall to ruin. Pruitt seems determined not to allow himself to fall into either trap. Guarantano offered up an anecdote about sitting down to dinner with his head coach, hashing things out and developing the type of relationship that allows Pruitt to trust him and vice versa. These are the important steps in building the type of program everyone wants to see. Additionally, Pruitt owned the lack of effort and focus seen in certain games last year that led to the Vols missing out on a very achievable bowl berth.
Pruitt also touched on the very important physical development of this team, reflecting on the fact that he had very few 300+ pound players to work with last year. That has changed. A quick readthrough of the current roster shows a total of 21 players listed at over 300 pounds, and realistically there are probably going to be more when the roster is updated and finalized in the coming weeks. Darrell Taylor talked about his own development and growing comfort at his new weight as he approaches 260 pounds after arriving in Knoxville at around 210 following playing at wide receiver in high school.
Not all the news was ideal, of course. Pruitt didn't shy away from talking about the fact that there aren't many experienced guys on the defensive line and pointed out that the outside linebacker spots are a bit thin. There's still work to be done on the roster to get things to a place where Pruitt will be comfortable. Although he focused on the defensive side of the ball for depth and experience issues, for the most part, he also discussed the lack of experience at quarterback behind Guarantano and the necessity of preparing somebody to handle the backup duties. Although it wasn't explicitly mentioned, I would personally also toss in the running backs as a position group in need of further depth as this spring showed, when walk-on Chip Omer became a more important part of the Orange offense due to Carlin Fils-aime and Eric Gray being unavailable due to injury matters.
Aubrey Solomon and Deangelo Gibbs remain in relative limbo. Although there was an outbreak of excitement yesterday regarding their status, Pruitt confirmed today that there has been no response at this time from the NCAA. Now, while official word might not have come down yet, it's likely that excitement stemmed from something, whether it's a bit of positive feedback from the NCAA or a confirmation of support for the transfer from Michigan. Either way, the staff is moving forward like Solomon will play until something changes.
Trey Smith is also waiting to determine his availability. Pruitt did confirm that Smith and his doctors are working on a plan to allow him to play, whether or not such efforts will be successful is harder to determine. Blood clot issues are tricky to deal with, and whether or not he plays there will still be some degree of risk management and regular medical maintenance. Don't assume he will be available to play. Be hopeful, by all means, but ultimately if he can't play, that's alright. His health has to come first.
My personal takeaway from everything today is that the program is still very much a work in progress, but for those who expected it to take three years for the Vols to become a factor in the East, that may not be the case. The Vols certainly would have to be viewed as a significant long-shot to win the East, but they can have a big influence on where others fall in that pecking order. Tennessee pulled off big upsets last season against Auburn and Kentucky, and they should have won the South Carolina game. The bizarre turnover nightmare against Florida wasn't typical of the Vols last season, so that too seems like a game that could have at least been much more competitive than it was. If this team is fully bought in, which it sounds like they are, the only teams the Vols can't match up with from a talent perspective are Georgia and Alabama, and the coaching staff would seem upgraded. I'm not suggesting the Vols will win ten games, but finding eight wins on the schedule isn't particularly far-fetched. Two bye weeks in the season, falling before the Georgia and Missouri games, can't hurt any either. My takeaway is this is a bowl team and maybe even one capable of finishing as high as third in the East, and after going 9-15 the prior two seasons, that's a gigantic leap in the right direction.
Monday, July 15, 2019
2019 Position Breakdown: Wide Receiver
When it comes to receiving production, Tennessee arguably returns more than anyone else in the country. That's the good news, and when it comes to the wideouts they return 271 receptions for 3,904 yards, and 22 touchdowns for their careers. They've also combined for 31 carries for 219 yards and a touchdown. Solid returning production, but it's also a level of production that 13 programs exceeded just last season, including three of the four playoff teams. Even if you go ahead and include the running backs and tight ends, three teams finished with more yardage, three with more completed passes, and 32 teams with more passing touchdowns, so you can see how on paper this returning production maybe doesn't measure up in some ways. That said, the Vols return every start at tight end, running back, and wide receiver from last season and that experience is usually a great indicator of improvement. When it comes to wide receiver, there are five very important names to know.
Jauan Jennings is a clear fan favorite, but he's also the most productive returning receiver with 87 career receptions for 1,184 yards and 10 touchdowns over his career. While last season wasn't necessarily the one he was no doubt looking for, he was plenty productive in his return from injury and a brief parting of the ways with the team. A high school dual-threat quarterback, he has shown off his running ability as well as passing a couple of touchdowns over his time with the Vols. He is a Swiss Army knife as an offensive weapon and the man fans and teammates call "a dog" will no doubt look to make his final season in Knoxville the best yet. All indications from spring were that Jennings was making some appearances with the quarterbacks as well, so maybe we'll see him return to being used creatively.
Marquez Callaway has been a big play waiting to happen for the Vols for the last two seasons. He's averaging 16.3 yards per catch for his career. He's also been an excellent punt returner for the Vols with 29 returns for 389 yards and 2 touchdowns. If there's been one small criticism of Callaway, it might be turning his big receptions into points as he hasn't always been able to turn those long balls into points, but he's among the fastest options for the Vols and a nightmare for defensive backs to cover consistently. Speaking of consistency, though, that's something that Callaway will need to add to his arsenal if he wants to have a breakout season. He has disappeared somewhat for stretches over the last two seasons, and he's only got the only last chance to prove himself to the NFL.
Josh Palmer went from a relative afterthought as a true freshman when he averaged just shy of 11 yards per reception to playmaker as a sophomore when he averaged 21 yards per reception. While his 23 receptions last year fell just shy of two per game, he'll have a chance to take a big jump in consistency heading into his junior campaign. Palmer may very well be the fastest receiver on the team (although Jordan Murphy may have something to say about that), and he's certainly got the best mix of length and speed on the roster. He just has to take those tools and turn them into more plays made because he sometimes seems to lose focus on making the catch in favor of worrying about what comes next.
Brandon Johnson has quietly been Mr. Efficient for the wide receivers the last three seasons, whether his opportunities have increased or decreased. He has good hands and makes sure to secure the ball before worrying about yards after the catch. His 58 career receptions have only gone for an average of 12.2 yards per catch and one touchdown, but he's not necessarily being looked to for big plays as much as his reliable hands to help move the chains. If the quarterback and offensive line situations improve, so should the number of passes to go around as a direct correlation. Johnson will be looking to make the most out of every pass that comes his way.
I rarely suggest a player needs to have a big season, but I'm going to go ahead and say the time has come for this wideout to show some consistency to go with his own big play ability. Jordan Murphy might be the only receiver with the ability to claim more speed than Palmer, and in fact, he at one time was claiming a 4.3 to 4.4-range forty. With a career-long reception of 50 yards and a career-long rush of 59, there's obviously no question that he can break big plays. He has to be able to do it more than occasionally, however, and since he only averaged 1.2 touches per game last year he needs to prove he can become a bigger factor.
These are probably the top five right now, but another veteran receiver will look to reclaim his past form for the Vols. Tyler Byrd exploded onto the scene for the Vols, providing 535 all-purpose yards as a true freshman. Unfortunately, he's only had 74 yards since then, even though those limited opportunities have produced a couple of touchdowns. Byrd has the size and speed to make big plays, but it's unclear what exactly has held him back since that freshman season. Obviously, the overall situation regarding the program has been far from ideal, and that could certainly be one reason he's only had six touches in the last two seasons, but Byrd has also seemingly become a less confident player. He has all the talent you could ask for and his two receptions for 50 yards was a decent sign in the spring game, but that positive sign needs to result in some gameday production.
After those six, we run pretty dry on experience. Jacquez Jones is sort of the old dude after the top six scholarship guys. He has technically appeared in a few games during his freshman season, but he got a medical redshirt before registering any statistics. Jones was a productive high school player at Clearwater High in Florida and had a good senior season. If he is healthy and picks up the offense well, he has the tools to be a productive member of the receiving corps, as evidenced by his three receptions for 44 yards in the spring game. However, things did have gotten more crowded and at least this season opportunities could be difficult to come by.
Cedric Tillman was a late addition to the 2018 recruiting class, a discovery for the staff from Nevada who had a few offers but largely he'd had a somewhat quiet recruitment due to him not really bursting on the scene until he was a senior. Tillman has excellent size at 6-3, 212 and will hopefully learn to use that size to produce for the Vols at a high level. He redshirted last year after appearing in four games, catching one pass for a loss of three yards. This spring, he had a nice 19-yard reception but he's honestly going to have a tough time being more than a rotation receiver at best this season.
The top receiver recruit for the Vols last cycle was Ramel Keyton, who had a highly productive prep career despite missing half of his senior season with injury. He has good size at 6-2, 185 and at times this spring showed off a skill set that could allow him to make an impact this season. Although his spring game stats weren't particularly impressive, they should have been better than they ended up being. Keyton is probably the best candidate to steal minutes from players like Byrd and Murphy, although don't expect either older player to make it easy on the freshman.
Jerrod Means could easily be called the Vols man of mystery because I don't think anyone really knows what to expect from him. A big-bodied receiver at 6-2, 212, the true freshman was a one-time North Carolina commitment who saw his recruitment cool off following an injury that cost him a chunk of his senior season. Means has reportedly run a 4.4-forty, and he has certainly run a 4.61-forty at an Opening regional. He also had a ridiculous yard per reception average as a senior before getting hurt, averaging 24.2 yards per catch. There have been some reports that he has impressed since getting on campus, but route running was a concern coming out of high school and I'd venture a guess that a redshirt season is in order.
I could go walk-on by walk-on at wide receiver, but there's almost no point. There's simply no realistic chance that any of them will be able to break through to even a minor depth role. Richard Mize Jr. and Ramsey Hailey have been around for a bit. Mize is a former high school quarterback who has moved to wideout with the Vols and Hailey has recently moved to receiver from defensive back. Grant Frerking, an entrepreneur who runs his own business in addition to playing football and going to college, came to the Vols as a tight end but his length has made him a nice asset to the receiver group. Tanner Dobrucky was at running back this spring but has now slid to wide receiver. JT Siekerman played receiver in football in high school before joining the Vols in addition to playing baseball in Douglasville. Newcomer Isaiah Montgomery has good size at receiver and has some good film showing decent hands and speed, but like almost any freshman and especially any freshman walk-on, he's going to need time to develop.
Up next are the tight ends, where two true freshmen are likely to be heavily relied upon behind senior Dominick Wood-Anderson while a veteran looks to mark his territory on a top reserve role.
Jauan Jennings is a clear fan favorite, but he's also the most productive returning receiver with 87 career receptions for 1,184 yards and 10 touchdowns over his career. While last season wasn't necessarily the one he was no doubt looking for, he was plenty productive in his return from injury and a brief parting of the ways with the team. A high school dual-threat quarterback, he has shown off his running ability as well as passing a couple of touchdowns over his time with the Vols. He is a Swiss Army knife as an offensive weapon and the man fans and teammates call "a dog" will no doubt look to make his final season in Knoxville the best yet. All indications from spring were that Jennings was making some appearances with the quarterbacks as well, so maybe we'll see him return to being used creatively.
Marquez Callaway has been a big play waiting to happen for the Vols for the last two seasons. He's averaging 16.3 yards per catch for his career. He's also been an excellent punt returner for the Vols with 29 returns for 389 yards and 2 touchdowns. If there's been one small criticism of Callaway, it might be turning his big receptions into points as he hasn't always been able to turn those long balls into points, but he's among the fastest options for the Vols and a nightmare for defensive backs to cover consistently. Speaking of consistency, though, that's something that Callaway will need to add to his arsenal if he wants to have a breakout season. He has disappeared somewhat for stretches over the last two seasons, and he's only got the only last chance to prove himself to the NFL.
Josh Palmer went from a relative afterthought as a true freshman when he averaged just shy of 11 yards per reception to playmaker as a sophomore when he averaged 21 yards per reception. While his 23 receptions last year fell just shy of two per game, he'll have a chance to take a big jump in consistency heading into his junior campaign. Palmer may very well be the fastest receiver on the team (although Jordan Murphy may have something to say about that), and he's certainly got the best mix of length and speed on the roster. He just has to take those tools and turn them into more plays made because he sometimes seems to lose focus on making the catch in favor of worrying about what comes next.
Brandon Johnson has quietly been Mr. Efficient for the wide receivers the last three seasons, whether his opportunities have increased or decreased. He has good hands and makes sure to secure the ball before worrying about yards after the catch. His 58 career receptions have only gone for an average of 12.2 yards per catch and one touchdown, but he's not necessarily being looked to for big plays as much as his reliable hands to help move the chains. If the quarterback and offensive line situations improve, so should the number of passes to go around as a direct correlation. Johnson will be looking to make the most out of every pass that comes his way.
I rarely suggest a player needs to have a big season, but I'm going to go ahead and say the time has come for this wideout to show some consistency to go with his own big play ability. Jordan Murphy might be the only receiver with the ability to claim more speed than Palmer, and in fact, he at one time was claiming a 4.3 to 4.4-range forty. With a career-long reception of 50 yards and a career-long rush of 59, there's obviously no question that he can break big plays. He has to be able to do it more than occasionally, however, and since he only averaged 1.2 touches per game last year he needs to prove he can become a bigger factor.
These are probably the top five right now, but another veteran receiver will look to reclaim his past form for the Vols. Tyler Byrd exploded onto the scene for the Vols, providing 535 all-purpose yards as a true freshman. Unfortunately, he's only had 74 yards since then, even though those limited opportunities have produced a couple of touchdowns. Byrd has the size and speed to make big plays, but it's unclear what exactly has held him back since that freshman season. Obviously, the overall situation regarding the program has been far from ideal, and that could certainly be one reason he's only had six touches in the last two seasons, but Byrd has also seemingly become a less confident player. He has all the talent you could ask for and his two receptions for 50 yards was a decent sign in the spring game, but that positive sign needs to result in some gameday production.
After those six, we run pretty dry on experience. Jacquez Jones is sort of the old dude after the top six scholarship guys. He has technically appeared in a few games during his freshman season, but he got a medical redshirt before registering any statistics. Jones was a productive high school player at Clearwater High in Florida and had a good senior season. If he is healthy and picks up the offense well, he has the tools to be a productive member of the receiving corps, as evidenced by his three receptions for 44 yards in the spring game. However, things did have gotten more crowded and at least this season opportunities could be difficult to come by.
Cedric Tillman was a late addition to the 2018 recruiting class, a discovery for the staff from Nevada who had a few offers but largely he'd had a somewhat quiet recruitment due to him not really bursting on the scene until he was a senior. Tillman has excellent size at 6-3, 212 and will hopefully learn to use that size to produce for the Vols at a high level. He redshirted last year after appearing in four games, catching one pass for a loss of three yards. This spring, he had a nice 19-yard reception but he's honestly going to have a tough time being more than a rotation receiver at best this season.
The top receiver recruit for the Vols last cycle was Ramel Keyton, who had a highly productive prep career despite missing half of his senior season with injury. He has good size at 6-2, 185 and at times this spring showed off a skill set that could allow him to make an impact this season. Although his spring game stats weren't particularly impressive, they should have been better than they ended up being. Keyton is probably the best candidate to steal minutes from players like Byrd and Murphy, although don't expect either older player to make it easy on the freshman.
Jerrod Means could easily be called the Vols man of mystery because I don't think anyone really knows what to expect from him. A big-bodied receiver at 6-2, 212, the true freshman was a one-time North Carolina commitment who saw his recruitment cool off following an injury that cost him a chunk of his senior season. Means has reportedly run a 4.4-forty, and he has certainly run a 4.61-forty at an Opening regional. He also had a ridiculous yard per reception average as a senior before getting hurt, averaging 24.2 yards per catch. There have been some reports that he has impressed since getting on campus, but route running was a concern coming out of high school and I'd venture a guess that a redshirt season is in order.
I could go walk-on by walk-on at wide receiver, but there's almost no point. There's simply no realistic chance that any of them will be able to break through to even a minor depth role. Richard Mize Jr. and Ramsey Hailey have been around for a bit. Mize is a former high school quarterback who has moved to wideout with the Vols and Hailey has recently moved to receiver from defensive back. Grant Frerking, an entrepreneur who runs his own business in addition to playing football and going to college, came to the Vols as a tight end but his length has made him a nice asset to the receiver group. Tanner Dobrucky was at running back this spring but has now slid to wide receiver. JT Siekerman played receiver in football in high school before joining the Vols in addition to playing baseball in Douglasville. Newcomer Isaiah Montgomery has good size at receiver and has some good film showing decent hands and speed, but like almost any freshman and especially any freshman walk-on, he's going to need time to develop.
Up next are the tight ends, where two true freshmen are likely to be heavily relied upon behind senior Dominick Wood-Anderson while a veteran looks to mark his territory on a top reserve role.
Sunday, July 14, 2019
Year 1.5: Pruitt Versus Jones
Vol fans are understandably frustrated. How could they not be? Tennessee hasn't won the SEC East since 2007. They haven't won the conference since 1998. What some have liked to view as a decade of dysfunction could honestly be more broadly referred to as two decades of disappointment. Athletic directors have come and gone, each one leaving behind their own special mess for the next administrator to try and clean up. Bad hires and botched searches have left the Vols settling for their new head coaches on more than one occasion. Mediocre results on the field have led to decreasing returns in recruiting, causing the Vols to fall further and further behind other programs. Head coaches in over their heads have made hires that have stunted the development of the players and the program to such a degree that elite talent that makes its way to Knoxville has more often than not failed to live up to expectations. A program that had become accustomed to having players drafted every single year has seen draft droughts that further hurt them in trying to lure the best of the best to Rocky Top. So why should fans even pretend to be optimistic right now?
I mean, look at the sloppy searches that led to the Butch Jones and Jeremy Pruitt hirings. Honestly, as frustrating as the search was the led the Vols to Jones, in hindsight it looks brilliantly competent compared to the publicly played out nightmare scenario of late 2017. Once again, to fans it looks like the program settled for who they could get instead of hiring the best man for the job after a botched search. The good news is that the journey can be a disaster and still end up getting you to the perfect destination.
COACHING STAFF
With any new hire, the first thing that fans will look at is the staff that they assemble. Are they going out and hiring the best of the best? In the case of Butch Jones, a couple of hires might check that box off. However, for the most part, he hired with comfort in mind. With the exceptions of Robert Gillespie and Tommy Thigpen, he had some degree of familiarity with everyone he hired and had coached alongside most of them. Thigpen had an indirect connection as he had worked with assistant head coach and defensive backs coach Willie Martinez, so the only true outsider was Gillespie. It was a staff well-suited to win at Cincinnati. It was less well-suited to win in the SEC. After a 5-7 season and less than impressive results in 2013, the 2014 staff was exactly the same.
Jeremy Pruitt hired a staff that had largely won at bigger programs. Now, he had coached with many of them. He had a history with Kevin Sherrer, Chris Rumph, Chris Weinke, Charles Kelly, Will Friend, Tracy Rocker, and Brian Niedermeyer. He plucked Tyson Helton from his brother's staff at USC. He hired former Vol Terry Fair and grabbed a man well-known for his development of players in David Johnson from Memphis. He also went out and snagged a highly-respected strength and conditioning coach from the NFL in Craig Fitzgerald. When the first season in Knoxville led to largely underwhelming results, rather than resting on his laurels, Pruitt made changes. His new staff includes former Tennessee and Georgia offensive coordinator Jim Chaney, former Alabama and Oakland defensive backs coach Derrick Ansley as defensive coordinator, Kevin Sherrer moved from defensive coordinator to special teams coordinator, Tee Martin returned home to Tennessee as the assistant head coach, passing game coordinator, and wide receiver coach, David Johnson moved from wideouts to running backs, and Chris Weinke from running backs to quarterbacks. Talk about a staff shuffle as Pruitt fought to keep the coaches he sought to retain and let others move on, willingly or unwillingly. He also made quite certain that they fought to keep Craig Fitzgerald in the mix even though he was being pursued by his alma mater.
Those are significant and meaningful adjustments being made by a coach determined to win, friendships be damned. It's clear that Pruitt understands the business side of the job and doesn't let personal relationships get in the way of necessary changes. That was a noted criticism of Butch Jones as he tended to wait until his hand was forced to make any changes, overvaluing his friendships in a business where you can't let things be personal due to the short leash every new head coach finds themselves on.
RECRUITING
What about recruiting? That was largely viewed as Butch Jones's bread and butter. When it came to salvaging the 2013 class, he managed to bring in the 25th ranked class nationally, although that class was just 11th in the SEC and finished with an average player rating of 85.86. Now, the more accurate measure of the talent being added to a roster is the average player rating, which would see that class ranking 28th in the nation in 2013 and still sitting at 11th in the SEC.
In 2014, with a year to work, Butch Jones would bring in a top ten recruiting class. It ranked 7th nationally, 5th in the SEC, and had an average player rating of 89.50. This class had its issues after the fact, but there are certain things to consider about this class that may have made it look better than it was. The most obvious thing to consider is that only Old Dominion had more signees than Tennessee's 32 and nobody else in the top 30 of the rankings had 30 or more in their class. The next thing to consider is that the Vols dropped two spots when you look at the average player rating, meaning the class wasn't quite as talented as some might like to think. One final thing to keep in mind is that the top half of the class was largely built up of in-state players and legacies, meaning that it wasn't necessarily something that was going to be sustainable.
Let's compare that to Pruitt's first two classes. Coming off of a miserable 4-8 campaign, Pruitt was able to land the 21st class in the nation, which was good for 8th in the SEC with an average player rating of 87.57. Before anyone starts to think that Jones had fewer players in his first class, Jones had one more player in his 2013 class than Pruitt did in 2018. One of the big differences between the two was the fact that Pruitt added double the 4-star talents. The average player rating was 23rd in the class, so again it was a slight drop regarding the overall talent in the class, although there was a weird outlier in Stanford that only had 15 signees but a higher average.
Let's jump into Pruitt's first full class because this is where the two very different recruiting philosophies come into stark contrast. The 2019 class would end up ranked 12th nationally, 7th in the SEC, and had an average player rating of 90.49. Had Tennessee been able to take a full 25 players, this was probably a top ten class nationally. They trailed Auburn by one-hundredth of a point and trailed Clemson by less than four points, so they didn't even need a particularly crazy addition to move into the top ten, but they elected to use a couple spots to add transfers in Aubrey Solomon and Deangelo Gibbs. The player average rating placed them 14th in a cycle when talent was more evenly distributed than the past few cycles, but it was Tennessee's highest player average rating since the 2009 recruiting cycle.
Okay, so right now at a quick glance it looks like we're splitting hairs, right? The national class ranking is a half position better for Jones and the SEC ranking is a half position in favor of Pruitt, so no big difference, right? The difference lies in a couple of numbers, most notably the average player rating. Through two classes, Jones had an average player rating of 87.68. Pruitt currently has one of 89.03. At first blush, that still seems pretty close, but Pruitt is dancing close to a 4-star average player rating and has a 4-star average in his 2019 class. By comparison, Jones never got any closer than his year two average rating. Jones's five-year class average was 88.24, and Pruitt's first class had a better average than both Jones's first and last classes at Tennessee.
I want to look at it in a different way though. Using the 247Sports composite rankings, Pruitt has had 46.7% of his signees/additions be either 4 or 5-star ranked recruits. By comparison, in those first two years under Jones, it was just 36.4% that were 4 or 5-star ranked, and over the course of the full five years of Jones's tenure at Tennessee, it was 37.5% of his signees that were 4 or 5-star recruits.
Bottom line: Butch Jones wasn't the recruiting guru so many thought he was. His two top-ranked classes both had 30+ signees, something that isn't even possible to do anymore in the current recruiting landscape due to changes in the rules. His recruiting was fool's gold, tricking people into thinking he was recruiting at an especially high level when the reality was that he was recruiting volume over quality. Pruitt isn't quite yet recruiting at the talent percentages of the best teams yet, but he has moved the needle much closer to the 50% or above percentage that indicates the strong classes of current perennial winners.
DEVELOPMENT AND RETENTION
This is the hardest to evaluate after just one year, but we'll begin this with retention. Now, since we're just considering the first year and a half of each coach, I won't be able to go into all the transfers Butch Jones had. Instead, I'll be looking just at the guys that either failed to qualify or left within that year and a half timeframe that Jones had brought in himself. Four from Jones's first class either didn't enroll or didn't make it to year two. The 2014 class was a mess, but none of that had come to pass by that summer.
In the case of Jeremy Pruitt's first two classes, he has one right now that seems unlikely to qualify from the 2019 class, but otherwise, everyone has enrolled and is still with the program.
How about development? Really tough to gauge with the limited sample size, but there is one potential indicator: physical changes from year one to year two. I'm going to do this in somewhat broader strokes, working out an average for the various position groups from one year to the next. I would love to use this as a gauge, but there's one issue with doing so: Tennessee hasn't put out a fall roster yet and so I can't get an accurate measure of the changes for the Vols right now.
Additionally, development comes down to coaching players into better versions of themselves. We won't be able to gauge that either until we see a couple years of products on the field. All I have right now is that early on, Pruitt appears to be doing a better job of retaining players he brings in, there are some early indicators that there are gains being made under Pruitt that may not have taken place under Jones, and we have no idea how the teaching aspect of things is going yet. Basically, we can't quite measure this one right now, but things early are at least trending Pruitt here.
CONCLUSION
With just a year and a half to compare, so far Jeremy Pruitt appears to be heading in the right direction. He has things going the right way in recruiting. He's assembled a staff of winners and made changes when things didn't work as expected after year one. He's seemingly got things moving in the right direction in player development, but at the very least that is still a tentative assessment.
As a rule, making the right moves in these three areas results in winning. Pruitt is doing the things you'd expect a head coach who will have success to do. There were troubling signs with Jones, and he won largely because of a handful of standout players who carried not just the rest of the team but also the staff. It will take another year and a half until we know for sure about Pruitt, but comparing him to Butch Jones just doesn't add up based on what we've seen so far.
I mean, look at the sloppy searches that led to the Butch Jones and Jeremy Pruitt hirings. Honestly, as frustrating as the search was the led the Vols to Jones, in hindsight it looks brilliantly competent compared to the publicly played out nightmare scenario of late 2017. Once again, to fans it looks like the program settled for who they could get instead of hiring the best man for the job after a botched search. The good news is that the journey can be a disaster and still end up getting you to the perfect destination.
COACHING STAFF
With any new hire, the first thing that fans will look at is the staff that they assemble. Are they going out and hiring the best of the best? In the case of Butch Jones, a couple of hires might check that box off. However, for the most part, he hired with comfort in mind. With the exceptions of Robert Gillespie and Tommy Thigpen, he had some degree of familiarity with everyone he hired and had coached alongside most of them. Thigpen had an indirect connection as he had worked with assistant head coach and defensive backs coach Willie Martinez, so the only true outsider was Gillespie. It was a staff well-suited to win at Cincinnati. It was less well-suited to win in the SEC. After a 5-7 season and less than impressive results in 2013, the 2014 staff was exactly the same.
Jeremy Pruitt hired a staff that had largely won at bigger programs. Now, he had coached with many of them. He had a history with Kevin Sherrer, Chris Rumph, Chris Weinke, Charles Kelly, Will Friend, Tracy Rocker, and Brian Niedermeyer. He plucked Tyson Helton from his brother's staff at USC. He hired former Vol Terry Fair and grabbed a man well-known for his development of players in David Johnson from Memphis. He also went out and snagged a highly-respected strength and conditioning coach from the NFL in Craig Fitzgerald. When the first season in Knoxville led to largely underwhelming results, rather than resting on his laurels, Pruitt made changes. His new staff includes former Tennessee and Georgia offensive coordinator Jim Chaney, former Alabama and Oakland defensive backs coach Derrick Ansley as defensive coordinator, Kevin Sherrer moved from defensive coordinator to special teams coordinator, Tee Martin returned home to Tennessee as the assistant head coach, passing game coordinator, and wide receiver coach, David Johnson moved from wideouts to running backs, and Chris Weinke from running backs to quarterbacks. Talk about a staff shuffle as Pruitt fought to keep the coaches he sought to retain and let others move on, willingly or unwillingly. He also made quite certain that they fought to keep Craig Fitzgerald in the mix even though he was being pursued by his alma mater.
Those are significant and meaningful adjustments being made by a coach determined to win, friendships be damned. It's clear that Pruitt understands the business side of the job and doesn't let personal relationships get in the way of necessary changes. That was a noted criticism of Butch Jones as he tended to wait until his hand was forced to make any changes, overvaluing his friendships in a business where you can't let things be personal due to the short leash every new head coach finds themselves on.
RECRUITING
What about recruiting? That was largely viewed as Butch Jones's bread and butter. When it came to salvaging the 2013 class, he managed to bring in the 25th ranked class nationally, although that class was just 11th in the SEC and finished with an average player rating of 85.86. Now, the more accurate measure of the talent being added to a roster is the average player rating, which would see that class ranking 28th in the nation in 2013 and still sitting at 11th in the SEC.
In 2014, with a year to work, Butch Jones would bring in a top ten recruiting class. It ranked 7th nationally, 5th in the SEC, and had an average player rating of 89.50. This class had its issues after the fact, but there are certain things to consider about this class that may have made it look better than it was. The most obvious thing to consider is that only Old Dominion had more signees than Tennessee's 32 and nobody else in the top 30 of the rankings had 30 or more in their class. The next thing to consider is that the Vols dropped two spots when you look at the average player rating, meaning the class wasn't quite as talented as some might like to think. One final thing to keep in mind is that the top half of the class was largely built up of in-state players and legacies, meaning that it wasn't necessarily something that was going to be sustainable.
Let's compare that to Pruitt's first two classes. Coming off of a miserable 4-8 campaign, Pruitt was able to land the 21st class in the nation, which was good for 8th in the SEC with an average player rating of 87.57. Before anyone starts to think that Jones had fewer players in his first class, Jones had one more player in his 2013 class than Pruitt did in 2018. One of the big differences between the two was the fact that Pruitt added double the 4-star talents. The average player rating was 23rd in the class, so again it was a slight drop regarding the overall talent in the class, although there was a weird outlier in Stanford that only had 15 signees but a higher average.
Let's jump into Pruitt's first full class because this is where the two very different recruiting philosophies come into stark contrast. The 2019 class would end up ranked 12th nationally, 7th in the SEC, and had an average player rating of 90.49. Had Tennessee been able to take a full 25 players, this was probably a top ten class nationally. They trailed Auburn by one-hundredth of a point and trailed Clemson by less than four points, so they didn't even need a particularly crazy addition to move into the top ten, but they elected to use a couple spots to add transfers in Aubrey Solomon and Deangelo Gibbs. The player average rating placed them 14th in a cycle when talent was more evenly distributed than the past few cycles, but it was Tennessee's highest player average rating since the 2009 recruiting cycle.
Okay, so right now at a quick glance it looks like we're splitting hairs, right? The national class ranking is a half position better for Jones and the SEC ranking is a half position in favor of Pruitt, so no big difference, right? The difference lies in a couple of numbers, most notably the average player rating. Through two classes, Jones had an average player rating of 87.68. Pruitt currently has one of 89.03. At first blush, that still seems pretty close, but Pruitt is dancing close to a 4-star average player rating and has a 4-star average in his 2019 class. By comparison, Jones never got any closer than his year two average rating. Jones's five-year class average was 88.24, and Pruitt's first class had a better average than both Jones's first and last classes at Tennessee.
I want to look at it in a different way though. Using the 247Sports composite rankings, Pruitt has had 46.7% of his signees/additions be either 4 or 5-star ranked recruits. By comparison, in those first two years under Jones, it was just 36.4% that were 4 or 5-star ranked, and over the course of the full five years of Jones's tenure at Tennessee, it was 37.5% of his signees that were 4 or 5-star recruits.
Bottom line: Butch Jones wasn't the recruiting guru so many thought he was. His two top-ranked classes both had 30+ signees, something that isn't even possible to do anymore in the current recruiting landscape due to changes in the rules. His recruiting was fool's gold, tricking people into thinking he was recruiting at an especially high level when the reality was that he was recruiting volume over quality. Pruitt isn't quite yet recruiting at the talent percentages of the best teams yet, but he has moved the needle much closer to the 50% or above percentage that indicates the strong classes of current perennial winners.
DEVELOPMENT AND RETENTION
This is the hardest to evaluate after just one year, but we'll begin this with retention. Now, since we're just considering the first year and a half of each coach, I won't be able to go into all the transfers Butch Jones had. Instead, I'll be looking just at the guys that either failed to qualify or left within that year and a half timeframe that Jones had brought in himself. Four from Jones's first class either didn't enroll or didn't make it to year two. The 2014 class was a mess, but none of that had come to pass by that summer.
In the case of Jeremy Pruitt's first two classes, he has one right now that seems unlikely to qualify from the 2019 class, but otherwise, everyone has enrolled and is still with the program.
How about development? Really tough to gauge with the limited sample size, but there is one potential indicator: physical changes from year one to year two. I'm going to do this in somewhat broader strokes, working out an average for the various position groups from one year to the next. I would love to use this as a gauge, but there's one issue with doing so: Tennessee hasn't put out a fall roster yet and so I can't get an accurate measure of the changes for the Vols right now.
Additionally, development comes down to coaching players into better versions of themselves. We won't be able to gauge that either until we see a couple years of products on the field. All I have right now is that early on, Pruitt appears to be doing a better job of retaining players he brings in, there are some early indicators that there are gains being made under Pruitt that may not have taken place under Jones, and we have no idea how the teaching aspect of things is going yet. Basically, we can't quite measure this one right now, but things early are at least trending Pruitt here.
CONCLUSION
With just a year and a half to compare, so far Jeremy Pruitt appears to be heading in the right direction. He has things going the right way in recruiting. He's assembled a staff of winners and made changes when things didn't work as expected after year one. He's seemingly got things moving in the right direction in player development, but at the very least that is still a tentative assessment.
As a rule, making the right moves in these three areas results in winning. Pruitt is doing the things you'd expect a head coach who will have success to do. There were troubling signs with Jones, and he won largely because of a handful of standout players who carried not just the rest of the team but also the staff. It will take another year and a half until we know for sure about Pruitt, but comparing him to Butch Jones just doesn't add up based on what we've seen so far.
Saturday, July 13, 2019
2019 Position Breakdowns: Running Back
Tennessee wasn't a dominant running team last year, but they certainly weren't awful either. They improved in every rushing category over their 2017 team, but it was still their second-worst rushing output since 2012. However, there is a lot of reason for optimism about the 2019 version of the Tennessee running game, and a lot of that has to do with how much rushing production returns from that 2018 team. 86.5% of the rushing yardage, 88.8% of the carries, and 75% of the rushing touchdowns. Tennessee will need to see the offensive line improve in order to aid the running backs, but the running backs can help themselves as well. The running backs at times struggled to trust the holes to be there and got a little too skittish in the backfield, at least in part contributing to the 99 lost yards by the returning running backs.
Ty Chandler is the big name among the group, and he's certainly been the most productive of the running backs still on the roster, compiling 1,755 all-purpose yards in two seasons to go with 10 total touchdowns. Calling Chandler explosive is perhaps an understatement for a player who has a career-long run of 81 yards, a career-long reception of 42 yards, and a career-long return of 91 yards. When he gets free, he's virtually impossible to catch and stop. That is a great tool in his arsenal.
The problem is when he's not making the big plays and he slips into being at best an average running back. Part of that has been being a younger, slightly smaller back who has at times struggled to move the pile when running inside. With some upgraded blocking, this is likely to improve. Thankfully, Chandler isn't banking on that alone, making strides to catch up physically to his fellow running back Tim Jordan in adding muscle to his frame.
Chandler is going to have to be a major part of any improvement for the Vols as he is one of the few players on the roster who has displayed big-play ability. He's got that part down. Now he needs to make the mundane plays increasingly impressive down after down. Until that happens, Chandler will cease to become the clear #1 running back.
His regular contributor last year was Tim Jordan, a running back that is constructed like a cannonball: stout, hard as a rock, and difficult to stop. Jordan has been much more of the guy making the mundane between the tackles carries above average, which has kept him regularly rotating with Chandler, although his decision making when it comes to deviating from the design of the play has been iffier as well. Among the running backs, he was the leader in lost yardage.
This pair of true juniors have a combined career 405 touches, 2,565 all-purpose yards, and 13 touchdowns, so the Vols are in fairly good hands with those two, who have averaged 6.3 yards per touch combined over their two seasons with the Vols. However, few programs get by riding one or two running backs anymore, either due to injuries, typical wear and tear, or even opting to ride the hottest hand each game. More good news for the Vols here, as they have a couple other experienced options in the mix as well as a highly-touted true freshman.
Carlin Fils-aime is the old guy in the backfield as the lone scholarship senior between the quarterbacks and running backs. He's also had some success despite an almost disrespectful lack of touches considering his output. On just 52 career carries, Fils-aime has produced 309 yards, good for a 5.9 yard per carry clip, and 5 touchdowns. One arguable limitation would be a general lack of production as a receiver, producing just 18 yards on 4 receptions over the past three seasons. Although Fils-aime got work last offseason as a corner, he moved back to running back and has established that as his home as a football player, although he is also a quality special teams performer with 5 tackles on coverage units.
Jeremy Banks is the guy with some experience that arguably generates both the most excitement and most frustration. Last season, as a true freshman, Banks proved early on that he belonged on the field with his tough running style and productive short-yardage work, but as time went on he became plagued by fumbles, seeing his opportunities dry up and even some work on defense at linebacker. He finished the year with 52 carries, 185 yards, and 3 touchdowns as well as a reception for 10 yards. The biggest of the running backs, if Banks has the fumbling issues under control he will be tough to keep off the field.
From an experience standpoint, the Vols have plenty at running back. That experience comes with production too, with the foursome combining for 514 touches, 3,087 all-purpose yards, and 21 touchdowns. Limiting it to just their combined work on the ground, they have produced 433 carries for 2,003 yards and 17 touchdowns at 4.6 yards per carry. Now, that production isn't going to blow everyone away at first blush, but considering most of that occurred during two of the worst seasons in program history it is overall fairly impressive.
Newcomer Eric Gray is yet another dynamic addition to the backfield. He had over 9,000 all-purpose yards in high school and 134 total touchdowns, including one on an interception return as a freshman. Gray is quicker more than fast, although he has run an electronically-timed 4.57-forty, so he's no slouch (former Vol running back and current New Orleans Saint Alvin Kamara ran a 4.56 at the NFL Combine and his forty time would have tied for 11th at this past NFL Combine). Barton Simmons of 247Sports drew the comparison to Kareem Hunt as a player, and there are some parallels there as far as playing style, although Alvin Kamara also works as a potential comparison. One area Gray needed to improve upon once he arrived on campus was his strength as this was ultimately one of his less impressive testing results. Still, that's not hugely concerning for an all-purpose back right out of high school. With his work in the strength and conditioning program since January, he should be right in the mix for carries.
Those five make up the current scholarship options at running back, although it's possible that some players could make the move to running back depending on how things progress in fall camp. Tennessee does have four walk-ons in the mix, one of whom is an interesting newcomer and another who has been around the program for a few years and helped to fill in this spring with Fils-aime and Gray sitting out. Chip Omer is going on his fourth season around the program and was the player called upon to be the second back for the Orange team offense in the spring game. At 6-0, 202, Omer is built for the position and he was a relatively productive player in high school, averaging 7.6 yards per carry in high school and 12.9 yards per reception. Omer is a tough player, also serving as a standout linebacker in high school. A strong athlete, he also handled kickoff returns, taking two back for touchdowns. Omer isn't a player the Vols would want to rely on, but if injuries forced him into a reserve role, he would likely be capable in the role.
James Christian is roughly the same age and has spent roughly the same amount of time with the Vols, but Christian hasn't quite earned the same place in the pecking order. Christian had to wait his turn in high school, only starting as a senior. He was reasonably productive in high school despite being on the smaller side at running back, only checking in at 5-8, 180 as a senior. He's added over 25 pounds in college, and if called upon would likely be able to be somewhat productive.
Cameron Miller joined the Vols as a defensive back initially before moving to running back this summer. Miller began his career with a brief stint with Carson-Newman before making the jump to Tennessee. At CN, he was set to play linebacker, a position where he excelled in high school. He didn't play as a true freshman for CN before moving to Knoxville, and now as a redshirt freshman he'll look to find a home at running back. As for how he might perform at running back, it's difficult to gauge as I can't find any film of him on offense despite him playing it in high school.
Fred Orr is an interesting newcomer among the walk-ons. At 5-11, 195, he certainly looks the part. He was a very productive high school running back as well, finishing his high school career with over 3,500 rushing yards and 41 rushing touchdowns and over 750 receiving yards. He averaged 7.2 yards per carry and 12 yards per reception as well as also showing off some strong kick return ability. He had offers from some of the service schools but a transfer from Rossview to Northeast High saw him splitting carries with Tyrique Freeman, who accepted his own scholarship offer to Air Force. Orr was a dynamic weapon in high school and the 2-star recruit may ultimately prove to develop into a quality depth piece for the Vols if he can make the most of his opportunity in Knoxville.
Up next is a look at arguably the strongest position group on the 2019 roster: the wide receivers. The Vols will need to make the most of these receivers while they still have them.
Ty Chandler is the big name among the group, and he's certainly been the most productive of the running backs still on the roster, compiling 1,755 all-purpose yards in two seasons to go with 10 total touchdowns. Calling Chandler explosive is perhaps an understatement for a player who has a career-long run of 81 yards, a career-long reception of 42 yards, and a career-long return of 91 yards. When he gets free, he's virtually impossible to catch and stop. That is a great tool in his arsenal.
The problem is when he's not making the big plays and he slips into being at best an average running back. Part of that has been being a younger, slightly smaller back who has at times struggled to move the pile when running inside. With some upgraded blocking, this is likely to improve. Thankfully, Chandler isn't banking on that alone, making strides to catch up physically to his fellow running back Tim Jordan in adding muscle to his frame.
Chandler is going to have to be a major part of any improvement for the Vols as he is one of the few players on the roster who has displayed big-play ability. He's got that part down. Now he needs to make the mundane plays increasingly impressive down after down. Until that happens, Chandler will cease to become the clear #1 running back.
His regular contributor last year was Tim Jordan, a running back that is constructed like a cannonball: stout, hard as a rock, and difficult to stop. Jordan has been much more of the guy making the mundane between the tackles carries above average, which has kept him regularly rotating with Chandler, although his decision making when it comes to deviating from the design of the play has been iffier as well. Among the running backs, he was the leader in lost yardage.
This pair of true juniors have a combined career 405 touches, 2,565 all-purpose yards, and 13 touchdowns, so the Vols are in fairly good hands with those two, who have averaged 6.3 yards per touch combined over their two seasons with the Vols. However, few programs get by riding one or two running backs anymore, either due to injuries, typical wear and tear, or even opting to ride the hottest hand each game. More good news for the Vols here, as they have a couple other experienced options in the mix as well as a highly-touted true freshman.
Carlin Fils-aime is the old guy in the backfield as the lone scholarship senior between the quarterbacks and running backs. He's also had some success despite an almost disrespectful lack of touches considering his output. On just 52 career carries, Fils-aime has produced 309 yards, good for a 5.9 yard per carry clip, and 5 touchdowns. One arguable limitation would be a general lack of production as a receiver, producing just 18 yards on 4 receptions over the past three seasons. Although Fils-aime got work last offseason as a corner, he moved back to running back and has established that as his home as a football player, although he is also a quality special teams performer with 5 tackles on coverage units.
Jeremy Banks is the guy with some experience that arguably generates both the most excitement and most frustration. Last season, as a true freshman, Banks proved early on that he belonged on the field with his tough running style and productive short-yardage work, but as time went on he became plagued by fumbles, seeing his opportunities dry up and even some work on defense at linebacker. He finished the year with 52 carries, 185 yards, and 3 touchdowns as well as a reception for 10 yards. The biggest of the running backs, if Banks has the fumbling issues under control he will be tough to keep off the field.
From an experience standpoint, the Vols have plenty at running back. That experience comes with production too, with the foursome combining for 514 touches, 3,087 all-purpose yards, and 21 touchdowns. Limiting it to just their combined work on the ground, they have produced 433 carries for 2,003 yards and 17 touchdowns at 4.6 yards per carry. Now, that production isn't going to blow everyone away at first blush, but considering most of that occurred during two of the worst seasons in program history it is overall fairly impressive.
Newcomer Eric Gray is yet another dynamic addition to the backfield. He had over 9,000 all-purpose yards in high school and 134 total touchdowns, including one on an interception return as a freshman. Gray is quicker more than fast, although he has run an electronically-timed 4.57-forty, so he's no slouch (former Vol running back and current New Orleans Saint Alvin Kamara ran a 4.56 at the NFL Combine and his forty time would have tied for 11th at this past NFL Combine). Barton Simmons of 247Sports drew the comparison to Kareem Hunt as a player, and there are some parallels there as far as playing style, although Alvin Kamara also works as a potential comparison. One area Gray needed to improve upon once he arrived on campus was his strength as this was ultimately one of his less impressive testing results. Still, that's not hugely concerning for an all-purpose back right out of high school. With his work in the strength and conditioning program since January, he should be right in the mix for carries.
Those five make up the current scholarship options at running back, although it's possible that some players could make the move to running back depending on how things progress in fall camp. Tennessee does have four walk-ons in the mix, one of whom is an interesting newcomer and another who has been around the program for a few years and helped to fill in this spring with Fils-aime and Gray sitting out. Chip Omer is going on his fourth season around the program and was the player called upon to be the second back for the Orange team offense in the spring game. At 6-0, 202, Omer is built for the position and he was a relatively productive player in high school, averaging 7.6 yards per carry in high school and 12.9 yards per reception. Omer is a tough player, also serving as a standout linebacker in high school. A strong athlete, he also handled kickoff returns, taking two back for touchdowns. Omer isn't a player the Vols would want to rely on, but if injuries forced him into a reserve role, he would likely be capable in the role.
James Christian is roughly the same age and has spent roughly the same amount of time with the Vols, but Christian hasn't quite earned the same place in the pecking order. Christian had to wait his turn in high school, only starting as a senior. He was reasonably productive in high school despite being on the smaller side at running back, only checking in at 5-8, 180 as a senior. He's added over 25 pounds in college, and if called upon would likely be able to be somewhat productive.
Cameron Miller joined the Vols as a defensive back initially before moving to running back this summer. Miller began his career with a brief stint with Carson-Newman before making the jump to Tennessee. At CN, he was set to play linebacker, a position where he excelled in high school. He didn't play as a true freshman for CN before moving to Knoxville, and now as a redshirt freshman he'll look to find a home at running back. As for how he might perform at running back, it's difficult to gauge as I can't find any film of him on offense despite him playing it in high school.
Fred Orr is an interesting newcomer among the walk-ons. At 5-11, 195, he certainly looks the part. He was a very productive high school running back as well, finishing his high school career with over 3,500 rushing yards and 41 rushing touchdowns and over 750 receiving yards. He averaged 7.2 yards per carry and 12 yards per reception as well as also showing off some strong kick return ability. He had offers from some of the service schools but a transfer from Rossview to Northeast High saw him splitting carries with Tyrique Freeman, who accepted his own scholarship offer to Air Force. Orr was a dynamic weapon in high school and the 2-star recruit may ultimately prove to develop into a quality depth piece for the Vols if he can make the most of his opportunity in Knoxville.
Up next is a look at arguably the strongest position group on the 2019 roster: the wide receivers. The Vols will need to make the most of these receivers while they still have them.
Tuesday, July 9, 2019
2019 Position Breakdowns: Quarterback
Few positions are more important than the quarterback position (although I can certainly make the case that the offensive and defensive lines qualify for that level of import). Great running backs are wonderful unless they are all you have. Elite wide receivers can be limited by the play of the quarterback. Tennessee would appear to have both the running backs and receivers to compete with anyone. Do they have the quarterback(s)? Well, yes and no would seem to be the most realistic answer here.
Everything about the quarterback position at Tennessee has to begin with the starter, Jarrett Guarantano. Guarantano has evolved over his three years on Tennessee's campus from skinny redshirt to a guy who looks the part and has some of the numbers to match. He has wowed quarterback coaches and statisticians alike, but the fans have been left wanting. One thing that simply hasn't come over the last two seasons with Guarantano largely in charge has been wins. 9-15 over the past two seasons was never going to breed much excitement among the fan base, and right or wrong, quarterbacks tend to get the bulk of the blame for the results on the field. However, it's pretty hard to toss much of that blame at the feet of a quarterback who has thrown 16 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions over that time while completing 62% of his passes. He's been efficient, to say the least. Of course, efficiency works best when paired with playmaking elsewhere, and while there has been plenty of playmaking that took place, too often it's failed to lead to points or deficiencies elsewhere have made Guaratano's lack of scoring and yardage woefully inadequate to overcome the overall issues.
I could throw the advanced statistics at you that prove that Guarantano is one of the nation's best under pressure, in addition to being highly efficient, accurate, and effective, but fans have had these numbers tossed in their face before and most elect to hunker down in one of two camps: he's a great quarterback that is some decent blocking away from taking his place among the best in the nation at the position or he's a bust that will never live up to the lofty expectations that came with his ranking out of high school.
Both are actually right. Guarantano should never have been evaluated as a dual-threat quarterback. The young man averaged 2.1 yards per carry in high school. I understand that he ran a 4.51-forty at a camp, but there's a huge difference between having speed as a runner and instinct as one, and he never displayed the instincts. So it's true that he'll never live up to the ranking he was given because he should have been one of the top pro-style passers as opposed to a dual-threat. However, when it comes to being some solid blocking away from establishing himself as an elite passer, that's invariably true as well.
A bit of advanced stat work: under Jim Chaney, Georgia averaged 349 pass attempts per season. Guarantano was able to throw it 246 times last year, and even as a team Tennessee only threw it 297 times. Looking at last season, using the same averages for touchdowns, interceptions, and yardage while giving him the average attempts per season for Chaney at UGA, Guarantano would have thrown for 2,723 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.
Now let's apply some common sense to this equation and give Guarantano the benefit of the doubt that his yard per attempt and accuracy averages would improve. I mean, it doesn't take too much faith to think both would likely occur. Guarantano was 6th in the SEC in yards per attempt average anyway, so let's keep things reasonable and toss the ridiculous average of Tagovailoa since only three passers averaged over 10 yards per attempt in 2018. Taking the other four and averaging them out, we come to 8.7 yards per attempt. That would be just outside the top ten last year, but a look at recent history shows it to be a fairly common average for a top 12-15 passer nationally, and three quarterbacks in the SEC alone had a higher average last season. Basically, it's pretty achievable with solid blocking. Of course, I can already hear the complaining about it, so I'm going to knock it down to 8.2 yards per attempt, which is generally a top 30-35 average and on par with Fromm's per attempt average in 2018. We'll also give his touchdowns per attempt a modest boost to one touchdown for every 18 attempts, down from one every 20.5 attempts. With those modest improvements, he would move to 2,862 passing yards and 19 touchdowns. From a national perspective, that would place Guarantano at 40th nationally in passing yardage last year and tied for 46th in passing touchdowns.
Let's get a bit crazy and think about that 8.7 yards per attempt number and say Guarantano could up his touchdown per passing attempt average to 15 attempts per touchdown. As stated before, the 8.7 yards per attempt is roughly a top 15 average among quarterbacks each year, and a touchdown every 15 attempts would probably land somewhere among the top 20-30 annually. That would come out to 3,036 passing yards and 23 touchdowns. In 2018, that would have been good for 32nd in passing yardage and tied for 37th in touchdowns. Of course, even when I'm being a "bit crazy" I'm being kind of conservative given we saw nine quarterbacks average nine or more yards per attempt last year and several in the SEC alone had a better attempts per touchdown number.
There are the numbers. Here is the bottom line: we're talking about a young man who has started 18 games total and is only heading into his redshirt junior season. He's far from a polished player, and now he's working with the best group of quarterback developers he's had in his three years on campus. He's going on his fourth offensive coordinator and his fourth quarterback coach at Tennessee, and he's been the very definition of efficiency. ESPN has named him to their list of under-the-radar players ready for a breakout campaign this season, and it's not hard to understand why.
So Tennessee has their starting quarterback, and it's pretty clear that he's going to be unchallenged for that role for any number of reasons, not the least of which is his play. Unfortunately, another reason is a pair of freshmen are the only other scholarship signal callers on the roster. The only other quarterbacks on the roster are a couple of true freshman walk-ons, so I can't even offer up that an experienced walk-on might help provide depth.
J.T. Shrout is the likely backup at this point, and there are certainly reasons to like his potential. The first thing that everyone brings up with this young man is the arm strength, and it jumps out at you for certain. He has a cannon that fits among the best in the country, but a gun is only as good as the person wielding it and Shrout is still raw in this regard. Perhaps the best news from his spring is that he didn't make any particularly bad decisions with the football, which was certainly an issue during a senior campaign in high school that saw him throw 25 interceptions. It would seem that Shrout did work on his decision making and field vision during his redshirt season. He was also second in the spring to Guarantano in passing yards and touchdowns, holding off the true freshman in establishing himself as the likely #2. Shrout, like Guarantano, isn't much of a running threat although he was at least able to keep teams honest in high school in that regard.
The primary threat to Shrout, who was only a one-year starter in high school, is the more experienced true freshman Brian Maurer. Before you hurt yourself trying to figure out how a true freshman can be more experienced than a redshirt freshman, Maurer was a three-year starter in high school, taking over as a sophomore and never relinquishing the top spot. That would be impressive enough, but he also improved noticeably each season in yardage, completion percentage, touchdowns, TD-to-INT ratio, and with his legs as a runner. Maurer was also the most accurate passer in the spring, however, he also took the most risks so despite completing 69% of his passes for 118 yards, he also tossed two interceptions to fellow freshman Jaylen McCollough. Maurer was also the only quarterback to finish with a net gain in rushing yards that quite possibly would have been better in a live scenario. In a perfect world, Maurer will be able to redshirt and polish his decision making, but with only three scholarship options on the roster, his redshirt season will hinge on the health of others.
When it comes to the walk-ons, one is an intriguing young man who could develop into a quality depth addition and another who was sitting on FCS offers and preferred walk-on offers from other FBS schools who shows off accuracy, touch, and a pretty pass on his film. That said, both are still very much true freshmen, and true freshmen who hail from smaller schools to boot.
Let's start off with the in-state quarterback who opted to walk-on with the Vols over scholarship offers and other walk-on opportunities. Spencer Smith had himself quite the senior season with over 2,800 yards of total offense, 38 total touchdowns, and just 4 interceptions. A touch on the skinny side, Smith has decent height at 6-1 and shows off a nice set of skills with his arm while showing off what is probably best described as sufficient running ability. Smith isn't the biggest, fastest, or strongest armed quarterback by any means, but he's solid in every regard with accuracy and placement that many elite passers struggle to display. While level of competition could be blamed at least partly for his level of success, at some point you just have to give it up to a pretty, well-placed pass that would work at any level in high school. That said, he will need time to adapt to the new level he's playing at in addition to the huge shift in talent he'll be both playing with and facing. He'll also need to dedicate himself to the strength and conditioning program if he wants a shot to be more than a scout team quarterback in the future.
People in Oklahoma don't know who Steven Orr is and he played in the state and took his team to the state semifinals as a senior. How do you do all that and fly under the radar? Well, playing at the Class B level, the second smallest division of high school football in the state, is a solid start. Playing in a city of under 900 people is another solid way to sail well under the radar. Strip all that away and what you're left with is a three-year starter at one of the most successful schools in the nation of its size. Orr is a southpaw with a quick release and a pass that doesn't get a lot of air under it. The ball gets to its destination quickly, but that comes with the potential downfall of his passes being easily low enough to be batted down. Adding in the lack of air under the passes with his 6-2 height and his release point may need some tweaking at the next level. He often throws a well-placed ball, but he has had some accuracy issues at times. He's a passer who throws the ball down the field, although not necessarily deep that often. Well, not deep in the sense that fans might think of. He likes to throw a large number of passes in the 10-25 yard range downfield, giving him career averages of 9.5-yards per attempt and 16.5 yards per completion. He also threw for 73 touchdowns against just 12 interceptions, numbers that stack up pretty nicely against those of fellow true freshman Brian Maurer. I suppose I should also mention that on film he's the most natural running quarterback I've seen head to Tennessee since one Josh Dobbs, although he lacks Dobbs's speed in that category, but shows similar instincts as a runner, putting up 1,879 rushing yards and 39 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. He has also played safety and served as the team's punter, so Orr is a young man willing to do anything asked of him to benefit his team. I don't know much more about him other than the fact that I'd rather have him on my team than an opposing one.
Up next will be the running backs, and there is some talent, production, and depth among that group. Look for that article in the next few days.
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