I've talked about some of the new bodies coming in this summer, but this list has a specific requirement. Only blueshirts or 3-star additions can qualify, with a possible preferred walk-on or two appearing on the list.
"*GASP* Walk-ons?!?! How bad is the roster? The depth chart must be awful! 5 wins at most!"
Not at all, ladies and gents. Tennessee just happens to have added some surprisingly solid walk-ons this cycle at areas where opportunities for playing time may exist. It's not a doom-and-gloom addition to the list; it's a testament to the quality of walk-on and the quality of the players themselves.
UNDER THE RADAR BUT READY TO HELP
Aaron Beasley - I know where he's going to start out his time at Tennessee, but I don't know if I'm convinced that's where he's going to stay. Safety is pretty loaded for the Vols, and running back got thin fast this spring with a couple guys out. If you weren't aware, Beasley was pretty darn good on both sides of the ball. As a junior and senior, he had a combined 120 tackles, 6 interceptions, and 2 fumble recoveries on defense and ran for 3,710 yards and 52 touchdowns on offense. A bigger safety and running back at 6-1, 210, he fits what the staff would like on both sides of the ball. Ultimately it's likely that they will see how he does on both sides of the ball and then determine where he can help out the most in 2019. Short of him being out of shape, it's hard to envision a player with his versatility failing to see the field in some capacity.
Sean Brown - Tight end was a position that Pruitt singled out after the spring game, feeling that group didn't give him enough over the course of spring. With two really emerging as playmakers at a position where they would prefer to have 3-4, the big-bodied Brown is almost a shoo-in to play this season. Brown and early enrollee Jackson Lowe come in with the kind of fanfare that followed the duo of Ethan Wolf and Daniel Helm. Although Wolf and Helm didn't end up doing it together at the same school, the two ultimately combined for 166 receptions for 1,800 and 13 touchdowns. It's not necessarily a stretch to think these two have similar potential. Brown is more of a blocker than a receiver, but he's a capable receiver as well. Brown will play. I don't doubt that for one second.
Devon Dillehay - Dillehay isn't likely to find his way into the defensive rotation in 2019, but special teams could be a different story. A safety-turned-linebacker, he was ridiculously productive for Northeast High in Clarksville, stuffing the stat sheet with 239 tackles, 73 tackles for loss, 19 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, an interception, and three blocked kicks (2 punts, 1 field goal) in his two years since moving to linebacker. He's the type of player who flies all over the field at 6-2, 210 with the speed to help immediately on coverage units.
Jerrod Means - Wide receiver may seem like a tough spot to break into the rotation, and that's true enough. However, Means might be the most intriguing addition the Vols made last cycle. A player who was probably on his way to a much higher ranking by the recruiting services before losing half his senior campaign due to injury. Before getting hurt, he had racked up 19 receptions for 460 yards and 6 touchdowns, an explosive follow-up to his 400+ yards and 5 touchdown junior campaign. Means reportedly ran a 4.4-range forty during a camp with the Vols at over 210-pounds. He's little more than a downfield threat right now, but with his size and speed, he could be turned to when the Vols need a deep-threat on the edge.
Darel Middleton - Tennessee could stand to add to the depth on the defensive line, and Middleton is one of the JUCO summer additions there who might very well be able to contribute early. He's going to stand out on the defensive line as it currently stands, a solid two or so inches taller than everyone else in that group. Although he will need to add some strength this summer, his length and quick first step will give him a very good shot to find a role in the rotation at either end position.
Fred Orr - Remember me talking about running back being a potential need? Well, Tennessee did add a 2-star walk-on running back who set records during his high school career at Rossview and Northeast High Schools in Clarksville. He finished his career with 3,525 rushing yards and 41 rushing touchdowns while averaging 7.2 yards per carry, also adding on 64 receptions for 770 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he also handled kick returns, taking one back for a touchdown. Orr has good size at 5-11, 195 and has good balance with solid power and decent speed. Personally, I think he's somewhat similar to Tim Jordan but he sailed under the radar more than Jordan, in part because he split the workload as a senior with Air Force-bound Tyrique Freeman. How good is Orr? Well, he was #2 in rushing yards and touchdowns, #1 in receiving yards, and their leader in kickoff and punt return yardage, ending up as their leader in all-purpose yardage. If Beasley sticks on defense, keep an eye on Orr to see if he jumps ahead of older walk-ons in the pecking order.
Ethan Rinke - Every now and then, a player with an FBS recruiting profile will opt to walk-on with the school of their choice. Rinke turned down offers from lower-tier FBS programs in order to be a Vol, and this decision may prove to work out well for both sides. Rinke was productive as a senior, recording 70 tackles, 16 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, and a pair of fumble recoveries. He also has good size at 6-4, 240, which should open the door for him to try and remain primarily a pass rusher at outside linebacker or bulk up and move to the defensive line in Tennessee's base 3-4. Tennessee would love to find additional depth at both spots, and Rinke, while not an elite athlete, has a high motor and will certainly be given every opportunity to make an impact. At worst, high energy players can often find a home on special teams.
Kenney Solomon - Tennessee has a couple of strong rising sophomore cornerbacks, but depth at the end of spring was more than a little lacking at the position. Warren Burrell, a true freshman, put his stamp on a backup job, but with Tyus Fields hurt, Kenneth George Jr. in some off-field trouble, and the other real options an inexperienced duo, one of which is a former high school linebacker, true corners are more than welcome as Tennessee found themselves moving guys from nickel and safety to fill in at corner. Solomon is a corner, through and through. He's also a high school track star, but his speed is just a bonus considering he ran the ball, caught the ball, returned kicks and punts, and excelled on defense for Socastee High. Solomon averaged 3 interceptions per season in high school despite not being targeted particularly often, generally keeping him fresh to barely ever come off the field as he starred in every facet of the game. He also has excellent size at 6-0, 170, so the Vols will no doubt give him every opportunity to earn a slot in the rotation at corner.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Bryan Aiken - A long outside linebacker/defensive end option. The Vols are looking for help there, so he's at least coming in at an area of opportunity.
Parker Ball - An excellent two-sport athlete, he'll likely need to add weight before being able to challenge anyone at center. However, there might be an avenue as a long snapper since the Vols weren't sharp there this spring.
Anthony Harris - Very likely makes this list but for one major issue: this blueshirt candidate is far from a guarantee to qualify and enroll.
Melvin McBride - Certainly got consideration at an area of need on the offensive line, but as a player who has only played two seasons of football, he's likely going to need time to develop.
Elijah Simmons - Very athletic for his size, but likely to need to trim weight before becoming a regular contributor. That said, the depth at nose tackle is lacking and he may have to play regardless of readiness.
Saturday, May 25, 2019
Sunday, May 5, 2019
How Should Fans View Jarrett Guarantano?
Jarrett Guarantano has become something of a divisive topic for Vol fans. In one camp, they appreciate the young quarterback for his toughness and how well he takes care of the football while making more good decisions with the ball than bad ones. The other camp is frustrated by how many sacks he's taken, feel that he often takes unnecessary hits, question his timing and arm strength, and want more touchdowns and big plays from their young signal caller. Ultimately, both camps feel one side is right and the other is wrong. It's not necessarily that clear cut because few things in life are.
First things first, Guarantano has played in 21 games and started 18. He has one full season as a starter under his belt. In his time playing quarterback for the Vols, he's passed for 2,904 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions while completing 62.1% of his passes, which at present places him second to just Peyton Manning in career completion percentage. Short of missing significant time next season with injuries, he will almost certainly enter his senior year in the top ten at Tennessee in career passing yardage and has a very good shot at also being top 10 in career touchdowns with a season left to play.
So let's get into some numbers a bit more deeply. 1,185 passing yards will see Guarantano surpass Heath Shuler for tenth in career passing yardage and 16 touchdowns will put him in a three-way tie for ninth in career passing touchdowns. I want to potentially provide what might be reasonable progress for Guarantano in making the jump from his sophomore to junior campaigns. From his freshman to sophomore seasons, Guarantano increased his passing yards per game by 48.1 yards per game and increased his passing touchdowns by 8, so let's give him basically the same jumps in production and keep his touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4:1 intact. Crunching some additional numbers based on last season's yards per attempt and yards per completion while working out his completion percentage, his complete stats for 2019 would come out to:
199-319, 2,484 yards, 20 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 62.4%
Now, keep in mind all of that is either based on reasonably minor increases in stats from 2018 or uses the exact same numbers. In all likelihood, Guarantano will do what most college quarterbacks do and continue to improve in nearly all categories. Guarantano had the fewest passing attempts of any starting quarterback in the SEC last year and yet finished with the fewest interceptions, 6th in yards per attempt, 7th in completion percentage, 8th in quarterback rating, 11th in yardage, and 12th in touchdowns among SEC starters. To put it another way, he did about as much as you could ask of him with the fewest opportunities to do it in.
Now, Tennessee did allow 23 sacks last season, which works out to 320 passes attempted on the season and about 27 passes attempted per game. That's 23 lost opportunities to complete a pass and realistically, not all of those sacks are solely on the offensive line. Guarantano does need to improve his field awareness and internal clock. He can be slow to run through his progressions.
The long passing criticism isn't entirely fair. Guarantano threw for more passes of 40+ yards last season than Josh Dobbs did as a senior and just one fewer that Dobbs did that year from 50+ and Guarantano basically matched Dobbs or exceeded him in those categories when compared to Dobbs junior campaign. Guarantano at worst compares well to what Dobbs did as a passer and that's just looking at Guarantano as a sophomore.
A fair complaint has been Guarantano's ability to take off and run, a skill set he shows at times but seldom utilizes well in games. He's by no means going to be Josh Dobbs, nor should anyone expect him to be. However, he's allowing himself to be dropped behind the line of scrimmage far too often for a player timed in the 4.6-range in the forty in high school. He needs to use his legs to avoid negative plays when things are breaking down whenever possible.
The Vols have a very good group of receivers, but the receivers aren't doing a great job of turning deep passes into scoring plays. Sometimes that might be on the quarterback when the pass isn't on target, but more often the receivers were stumbling last season on their way to the end zone. The receivers needed improvement on yards after the catch as much as Guarantano needs to improve touch and ball placement.
So how should fans be looking at Jarrett Guarantano? Well, I'd advise that fans should probably stop worrying about how he compares to the other quarterbacks going into their junior seasons, or at least Tua Tagovailoa and Jake Fromm. Guarantano, for the most part, doesn't have the same level of talent/protection around him as those two quarterbacks. Sure, he has good receivers, but the running games and offensive lines that Tagovailoa and Fromm have at their disposal is simply at a different level. Stick Guarantano on those teams and he'll put up better stats too. That's not to say he's necessarily at the same level as them, but I will say that it's a lot tougher to gauge where Guarantano would compare to them when the team MVP for the last two seasons was probably the punter.
Guarantano is a talented young quarterback displaying toughness in the face of being sacked probably 40+ times and also showing off a high level of efficiency. He's not a polished product yet, and that's understandable since he's going on his fourth offensive coordinator heading into his redshirt junior season. That kind of turnover will impact the development of almost any young signal caller. His feel for the game, ability to see the field, and speed with which he runs through progressions is a work in progress, but the arm talent is there, both from an accuracy and strength perspective. Above all else, he is their quarterback, and whether or not you think he can or will become a top SEC quarterback, there's little chance that a healthy Jarrett Guarantano isn't the Tennessee quarterback in 2019.
Now, how do I view Jarrett Guarantano? Frankly, he might ultimately be the second best Tennessee quarterback since 2004 by the time he's done. He has a realistic chance to challenge Peyton Manning for the best career completion percentage as he is currently just 4-tenths behind him in career percentage right now. He's also on his way to the best touchdown-to-interception ratio for a Vol quarterback as he's currently sitting 3.2 touchdowns per interception (Peyton Manning currently has the best at 2.7 touchdowns per interception in his Vol career). He has a realistic chance to finish in the top five in UT history in passing yardage and passing touchdowns. While he's probably not going to be able to compare to what Josh Dobbs was able to do as a playmaking quarterback, he likely will be the better passer of the two and second just to Dobbs as a quarterback since Casey Clausen wrapped up his Tennessee career. That's just my two cents when considering his accuracy and efficiency as a passer up to this point and considering the kind of receivers he has to work with.
First things first, Guarantano has played in 21 games and started 18. He has one full season as a starter under his belt. In his time playing quarterback for the Vols, he's passed for 2,904 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions while completing 62.1% of his passes, which at present places him second to just Peyton Manning in career completion percentage. Short of missing significant time next season with injuries, he will almost certainly enter his senior year in the top ten at Tennessee in career passing yardage and has a very good shot at also being top 10 in career touchdowns with a season left to play.
So let's get into some numbers a bit more deeply. 1,185 passing yards will see Guarantano surpass Heath Shuler for tenth in career passing yardage and 16 touchdowns will put him in a three-way tie for ninth in career passing touchdowns. I want to potentially provide what might be reasonable progress for Guarantano in making the jump from his sophomore to junior campaigns. From his freshman to sophomore seasons, Guarantano increased his passing yards per game by 48.1 yards per game and increased his passing touchdowns by 8, so let's give him basically the same jumps in production and keep his touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4:1 intact. Crunching some additional numbers based on last season's yards per attempt and yards per completion while working out his completion percentage, his complete stats for 2019 would come out to:
199-319, 2,484 yards, 20 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 62.4%
Now, keep in mind all of that is either based on reasonably minor increases in stats from 2018 or uses the exact same numbers. In all likelihood, Guarantano will do what most college quarterbacks do and continue to improve in nearly all categories. Guarantano had the fewest passing attempts of any starting quarterback in the SEC last year and yet finished with the fewest interceptions, 6th in yards per attempt, 7th in completion percentage, 8th in quarterback rating, 11th in yardage, and 12th in touchdowns among SEC starters. To put it another way, he did about as much as you could ask of him with the fewest opportunities to do it in.
Now, Tennessee did allow 23 sacks last season, which works out to 320 passes attempted on the season and about 27 passes attempted per game. That's 23 lost opportunities to complete a pass and realistically, not all of those sacks are solely on the offensive line. Guarantano does need to improve his field awareness and internal clock. He can be slow to run through his progressions.
The long passing criticism isn't entirely fair. Guarantano threw for more passes of 40+ yards last season than Josh Dobbs did as a senior and just one fewer that Dobbs did that year from 50+ and Guarantano basically matched Dobbs or exceeded him in those categories when compared to Dobbs junior campaign. Guarantano at worst compares well to what Dobbs did as a passer and that's just looking at Guarantano as a sophomore.
A fair complaint has been Guarantano's ability to take off and run, a skill set he shows at times but seldom utilizes well in games. He's by no means going to be Josh Dobbs, nor should anyone expect him to be. However, he's allowing himself to be dropped behind the line of scrimmage far too often for a player timed in the 4.6-range in the forty in high school. He needs to use his legs to avoid negative plays when things are breaking down whenever possible.
The Vols have a very good group of receivers, but the receivers aren't doing a great job of turning deep passes into scoring plays. Sometimes that might be on the quarterback when the pass isn't on target, but more often the receivers were stumbling last season on their way to the end zone. The receivers needed improvement on yards after the catch as much as Guarantano needs to improve touch and ball placement.
So how should fans be looking at Jarrett Guarantano? Well, I'd advise that fans should probably stop worrying about how he compares to the other quarterbacks going into their junior seasons, or at least Tua Tagovailoa and Jake Fromm. Guarantano, for the most part, doesn't have the same level of talent/protection around him as those two quarterbacks. Sure, he has good receivers, but the running games and offensive lines that Tagovailoa and Fromm have at their disposal is simply at a different level. Stick Guarantano on those teams and he'll put up better stats too. That's not to say he's necessarily at the same level as them, but I will say that it's a lot tougher to gauge where Guarantano would compare to them when the team MVP for the last two seasons was probably the punter.
Guarantano is a talented young quarterback displaying toughness in the face of being sacked probably 40+ times and also showing off a high level of efficiency. He's not a polished product yet, and that's understandable since he's going on his fourth offensive coordinator heading into his redshirt junior season. That kind of turnover will impact the development of almost any young signal caller. His feel for the game, ability to see the field, and speed with which he runs through progressions is a work in progress, but the arm talent is there, both from an accuracy and strength perspective. Above all else, he is their quarterback, and whether or not you think he can or will become a top SEC quarterback, there's little chance that a healthy Jarrett Guarantano isn't the Tennessee quarterback in 2019.
Now, how do I view Jarrett Guarantano? Frankly, he might ultimately be the second best Tennessee quarterback since 2004 by the time he's done. He has a realistic chance to challenge Peyton Manning for the best career completion percentage as he is currently just 4-tenths behind him in career percentage right now. He's also on his way to the best touchdown-to-interception ratio for a Vol quarterback as he's currently sitting 3.2 touchdowns per interception (Peyton Manning currently has the best at 2.7 touchdowns per interception in his Vol career). He has a realistic chance to finish in the top five in UT history in passing yardage and passing touchdowns. While he's probably not going to be able to compare to what Josh Dobbs was able to do as a playmaking quarterback, he likely will be the better passer of the two and second just to Dobbs as a quarterback since Casey Clausen wrapped up his Tennessee career. That's just my two cents when considering his accuracy and efficiency as a passer up to this point and considering the kind of receivers he has to work with.
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