Saturday, December 22, 2018

Early Signing Period Evaluation

Tennessee had needs. Basically, they needed more talent everywhere. It's probably fair to say that the early signing period gave them a pretty big start on satisfying those needs. Of their 22 current commitments, they have now signed 19 of them. They've also secured an interesting transfer that will be discussed. After breaking down the signees and transfer, I'll take a look at remaining needs and targets heading towards national signing day in February.

QB Brian Maurer, 6-3, 184, 4-star, early enrollee: Maurer looks very much like the type of quarterback Vol fans have been begging to land, even while they had Joshua Dobbs. He can throw, he can run, and he has prototypical size for the position. Maurer was an Elite 11 finalist and an ESPN 4-star. For his high school career, he had 7,693 passing yards with a 60.7% completion percentage, throwing for 64 touchdowns against 35 interceptions and 12.5 yards per completion. He also ran for 905 yards and 14 touchdowns on 169 carries, good for 5.4 yards per carry. His senior campaign was by far his best, throwing for 3,572 yards, 34 touchdowns, and just 12 interceptions while completing 65.4% of his passes and running for 466 yards and 6 touchdowns on 80 carries, good for 5.8 yards per carry. Maurer is a bit like Aaron Rodgers in that he is a pass-first quarterback who uses his legs to escape trouble and create positive plays when things begin to break down. As an early enrollee, he'll get a jump on competing with J.T. Shrout and returning starter Jarrett Guarantano. NFL comparison: Colt McCoy, Washington Redskins

RB Eric Gray, 5-10, 195, 4-star, early enrollee: Where to begin with Eric Gray's career? Well, probably the rushing numbers of 8,187 yards and 124 touchdowns on 863 carries, good for a career yard per carry average of 9.5 yards. Don't worry though because Gray isn't a one-trick pony, also recording 31 receptions for 603 yards and 8 touchdowns (19.5 yards per catch) and 30 returns (8 kickoff and 22 punt) for 460 yards and a touchdown (23.3 yards per return on kickoffs, 12.5 yards per punt return). Gray is the epitome of the term all-purpose back, but he won't blow anyone away with his forty time (4.57). That isn't the strength of his running style, despite having enough speed to break big runs. His strength comes in the form of his quickness in changing direction and making the small movements to make tacklers miss on getting a clean hit. He has more power than one would expect, using his compact frame to gain leverage to push forward for additional yardage. Eric Gray's athleticism and running style will remind Vol fans of another beloved running back in Alvin Kamara, with both coming out of high school with similar testing results and builds. Like Kamara, he will need to add onto his frame in order to maximize his talent at the collegiate level. NFL comparison: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

WR Ramel Keyton, 6-3, 185, 4-star, early enrollee: The season that might have been for Keyton as a senior, but injury cut things short. Even so, he has some spectacular career numbers as he prepares to enroll at Tennessee, finishing with 184 receptions for 3,353 yards and 33 touchdowns, most of it done in three seasons. For his career, he has averaged 18.2 yards per catch. He's not the quickest receiver you'll ever see, registering a 4.62 electronically timed forty, but he has excellent hands and plucks the ball out of the air. He can make plays downfield, but he isn't necessarily a guy who racks up a ton of yards after the catch. Every team needs a sure-handed receiver to make the catches that pick up first downs and touchdowns, and that is absolutely what Keyton is. NFL comparison: Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

WR Jerrod Means, 6-2, 212, 3-star, May enrollee: Means went from reasonably well-recruited to disappearing from everyone's radar with a single injury as a senior. However, he was averaging 24.2 yards per catch when he got hurt, so how he could fall off the radar as much as he did is a little difficult to understand. The Vols were looking to add speed, and when Means camped with them last summer, he registered a 4.43 forty. Over his last two seasons of high school, he had almost 900 yards and 11 touchdowns. He's raw, but he has the size and athleticism most programs covet. It may take a couple of years before he begins to show returns, but he's a gamble the staff felt was worth taking for the potential payoff. NFL comparison: Tre'Quan Smith, New Orleans Saints

TE Jackson Lowe, 6-5, 242, 4-star, early enrollee: Lowe is the type of tight end Pruitt was begging for last seasons. Dominick Wood-Anderson showed flashes of being that guy, but Lowe might be that fully realized. He has elite length and enough athleticism to make big plays from the tight end position while also having the size and skill set to handle his blocking duties. His last two seasons of high school saw him collect 50 receptions for 809 yards and 12 touchdowns. At the risk of succumbing to the hype machine, I'll avoid comparing him to a certain former Tennessee and NFL great at the position. That said, he certainly has the look of a player who could come close to that lofty comparison. NFL comparison: Zach Miller, Chicago Bears

TE Sean Brown, 6-5, 250, 3-star, May enrollee: Brown starred on both offense and defense in high school, but for the Vols he will be primarily a blocking tight end with the ability to make catches when called upon. Brown is very much an in-line blocker in the mold of tight ends past. He has shown the ability to make plays as a receiver, but it isn't necessarily his predominant skill set. He slid to left tackle for a few games as a senior, illustrating his talent as a blocker. He has good athleticism as he also plays basketball. He'll probably be a redshirt candidate next season, but he will become a key part of the tight end rotation for the Vols down the line. NFL comparison: Dion Sims, Chicago Bears

OL Wanya Morris, 6-6, 311, 5-star, early enrollee: Morris was the highest ranked signing of the early period, possessing a unique combination of size and athleticism. In fact, he moves like a big man on the basketball court rather than a 300+ pound offensive lineman. He registered 73 pancake blocks as a senior while paving the way for an offense that rushed for nearly 200 yards per game, helping his team to a 10-3 final record and the state quarterfinals of the playoff. Morris still needs to get stronger, and the idea that he will add additional bulk as he continues to develop is a reasonable one. However, Morris has the ideal athleticism and length for the left tackle position and could become an All-American caliber player at the position. NFL comparison: Lane Johnson, Philadelphia Eagles

OL Chris Akporoghene, 6-5, 294, 4-star, early enrollee: Raw but talented pretty much sums up Akporoghene. Originally starting his career playing in the state of Tennessee, he eventually moved down to Florida to play for IMG Academy. A powerful run blocker, he's still working on becoming the pass blocker that the Vols will need him to become before he can earn a starting role. He has good length and is further along than one might expect of a player who only has three seasons of ball under his belt. NFL comparison: Ben Garland, Atlanta Falcons

OL Jackson Lampley, 6-4, 300, 4-star, May enrollee: The son of former Vol offensive lineman Brad Lampley was the longest commitment of the Vols and never showed signs of wavering. He's among the nation's best guards in the 2019 class, paving the way for four different rushers who put up at least 250 yards on the ground in 2018. He's a road grader, pushing defensive linemen around like they're barely there. He has good feet and can handle his business in pass blocking most of the time. I'd give him a good chance to earn a starting job if he were able to enroll in January, but it will be tougher to do so coming in for the summer. Still, the Vols have plenty of need and Lampley has the talent to push the starters right away. NFL comparison: T.J. Lang, Detroit Lions

OL Melvin McBride, 6-2, 300, 3-star, May enrollee: Prior to his sophomore season in high school, he had exclusively played basketball, so his athleticism is spectacular. Paved the way for a dynamic 2017 offense and an effective but less spectacular offense in 2018 that went to the state championship game. A powerful run blocker with excellent pass blocking, McBride can play guard or center, and which he ends up playing at the next level is still up in the air right now. He's very raw, having played so little football up to this point. He likely won't be called upon right away, so he'll need to take advantage of his opportunity to develop. NFL comparison: Rodney Hudson, Oakland Raiders

DL Savion Williams, 6-4, 315, 4-star, May enrollee: Williams is a big body that one might naturally think will land at nose guard, but he also has the athleticism to line up at the defensive end/3-technique defensive tackle spot. As a sophomore at Lackawanna College, he registered 33 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, and a sack in ten games. The #1 JUCO defensive tackle in the class, he appears to have the tools to start immediately for the Vols despite not enrolling early. The Vols had three departing seniors on the defensive line, so the opportunity is there for immediate playing time. NFL comparison: Montravius Adams, Green Bay Packers

DL Darel Middleton, 6-7, 290, 3-star, May enrollee: He was committed to the Vols at one point in high school before having to redirect to the JUCO ranks, growing from a high school tight end into a future college defensive lineman. Despite being relatively new to the position, he registered 29 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, and a sack for the eventual NJCAA national champs. His coach at East Mississippi CC has raved about his defensive end/tight end level of athleticism at his size. In the Vols 3-4 defense, end is his likely landing spot unless he continues to add weight and shifts to the nose guard spot. NFL comparison: Calais Campbell, Jacksonville Jaguars

DL Elijah Simmons, 6-2, 344, 3-star, May enrollee: Talk about an athletic freak. Already ridiculously large, videos have been circulating of Simmons showing his ability to dunk the basketball and grab the rim and he returned an interception last season 55 yards for a touchdown. He also had 141 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks during his high school career. He also forced a fumble and recovered one last season, easily his best of his high school career. Although he clearly has great athleticism already, Pruitt is wanting him to trim down further to about 325 to improve his stamina and explosiveness. Simmons is a prototypical nose guard and it's unlikely he'll play anywhere but the nose. NFL comparison: Star Lotulelei, Buffalo Bills

LB Roman Harrison, 6-2, 240, 4-star, May enrollee: Last season, the Vols weren't necessarily consistent in rushing the passer, and those unfortunate games when nobody was applying pressure often aligned with the Vols worst losses of the year. Darrell Taylor showed flashes of how good he can be, but if he's going to become Batman for that pass rush he needs a Robin. Jonathan Kongbo looked to be making progress in that regard but suffered a season-ending injury. With Taylor back, it's time to bolster the pass rush at outside linebacker, and the Vols have turned to Harrison to help in that regard. Why Harrison? Well, he often was forced to play nose tackle in high school and still ended up with 188 tackles, 50 tackles for loss, and 21 sacks despite being an undersized interior lineman. He is a high-motor, aggressive defender with the athleticism to torture offenses. At the Vols camp, he registered a 4.6 forty and a 38-inch vertical. He will join Jordan Allen, the redshirted J.J. Peterson, and fellow signee Quavaris Crouch in trying to bolster the pass rush in 2019. NFL comparison: Jordan Jenkins, New York Jets

DB Jaylen McCollough, 6-0, 194, 4-star, early enrollee: Every team needs an enforcer at one of their safety spots, and McCollough is definitely that. He's not the fastest safety, but what he lacks in speed he makes up for in instincts. As a senior, he registered 77 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, and 6 passes defended despite missing four games. His father was coached by Charles Kelly at Jacksonville State when both were there, no doubt helping the Vols in securing the services of the big hitting safety. Tennessee is losing safeties Micah Abernathy and Todd Kelly Jr., so there is an opportunity for early playing time in the secondary. McCollough certainly looks the part of a candidate to compete for one of the starting jobs. NFL comparison: Keanu Neal, Atlanta Falcons

DB Tyus Fields, 5-10, 190, 4-star, early enrollee: Fields was a big recruiting win for the Vols. His father, Mark Fields Sr., was an NFL linebacker for 9 seasons and a two-time Pro Bowler and his older brother Mark Fields Jr. is a senior corner for Clemson. Fields played mostly safety at the high school level, accumulating 195 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, a sack, and 7 interceptions. Prior to last season, he also handled a fair bit of the return duties, accounting for 488 return yards and a touchdown on both a punt and kickoff return. Fields isn't the biggest defensive back, but he can arguably play all five spots in the secondary, bringing to mind a former SEC defensive back with a particularly memorable nickname. Look for Fields to get his first look at the nickel spot. NFL comparison: Tyrann Mathieu, Houston Texans

DB Warren Burrell, 6-0, 170, 4-star, early enrollee: Tennessee made it a point to look for some length at corner in the last class. Burrell fits the same mold. Over the last three seasons, he's had at least 85 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 8 interceptions, 14 passes defended, 2 fumble recoveries, and a blocked kick. He tossed in a safety for good measure. Burrell had a number of notable offers, including Florida, Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia. He doesn't blow you away with his measurables, but all he does is make plays he's put himself in position for. He can easily excel at the college level, but his athleticism will have to progress before he'll be able to compete at an NFL level. NFL comparison: Jalen 'Teez' Tabor (Jauan Jenning's son), Detroit Lions

ATH Quavaris Crouch, 6-2, 230, 4-star, early enrollee: Crouch is the definition of an athlete, rushing for 3,246 yards and 33 touchdowns while also adding on 48 tackles and 14 sacks during his junior season before missing most of his senior season with an injury. Tennessee has talked about their interest in adding a bigger running back, but the need to improve the pass rush has the staff looking at Crouch as an outside linebacker to begin his career. It's certainly not impossible that he could either play both ways or ultimately end up at running back, but it's hard to envision Crouch not being productive at linebacker with his athleticism, whether that's at outside or inside linebacker. NFL comparison: Myles Jack, Jacksonville Jaguars

ATH Aaron Beasley, 6-1, 220, 3-star, May enrollee: Another true athlete, the last two seasons saw Beasley account for 3,710 rushing yards and 54 touchdowns as well as 116 tackles and 6 interceptions as well as two fumble recoveries. Like Crouch, he too would fit the mold of a bigger running back, but he will get his first look at safety where the Vols need to replace the two departing seniors. While he can certainly play the part of an enforcer, he also has good enough hands and coverage skills to hold his own in the open field. Like Crouch, a move to offense is certainly not impossible, but Beasley could also shift to inside linebacker if his athleticism doesn't translate to the next level. NFL comparison: Mark Barron, Los Angeles Rams

Transfer DL Aubrey Solomon, 6-3, 295, formerly at Michigan: A nice surprise during the early signing period was the announcement from former 5-star defensive lineman Solomon that he would be joining the Vols. While it remains to be seen whether or not he'll be eligible next season, Solomon had a solid freshman campaign with 18 tackles and 2 tackles for loss in 13 games played but had a tougher time of it during an injury-shortened sophomore season with 6 tackles in 5 games. Solomon has the athleticism to play the defensive end/3-technique tackle role, but he could also add some weight to move inside. If he's eligible for 2018, he will immediately have a chance to earn a starting job. If not, he has a redshirt available and will no doubt use the season to get ready to take the SEC by storm. NFL comparison: Tim Jernigan, Philadelphia Eagles

COMMITTED BUT UNSIGNED

DL LeDarrius Cox, 6-4, 305, 3-star, May enrollee: Cox committed to the Vols back in April and despite keeping his options open has remained with the Vols throughout the process. With his size, the Vols will have to fight to keep him in the fold, but given that he fits at a position of need the Vols will do everything in their power to bring him on board come national signing day.

LB Lakia Henry, 6-0, 225, 4-star, May enrollee: Henry is the #1 JUCO linebacker in the cycle, and he's being pursued like it with the Vols having to fend off Florida State and Arkansas among what will no doubt be others soon enough. Henry would immediately provide much-needed competition at inside linebacker, but the Vols will have their hands full to keep ahold of him.

DB Anthony Harris, 6-2, 171, 4-star, May enrollee: Harris was a pleasant surprise when he committed back in June and he hasn't wavered much, but there has been some suggestion of possible academic concerns. There hasn't been much competition for him yet, but with the available unsigned talent limited it's likely many more will begin to look his way.

REMAINING NEEDS

Defensive end: While the defensive line signees are great so far, there hasn't been a clear replacement for departing senior Kyle Phillips. There isn't much left unsigned at strongside defensive end so the JUCO ranks or transfer market may be where the Vols have to go.

Linebacker: Inside and outside, potentially, although the staff could decide they are done on the edge with Crouch and Harrison. Khris Bogle may be a long-shot at outside linebacker, but he's certainly someone the Vols would be hard-pressed to turn away. There are a few more options for inside linebacker, including 4-star Henry To'oto'o and in-state talent Christopher Russell.

Corner: Either the Vols will have to make in-roads with someone they haven't really been meaningfully involved with up to this point or gamble on trying to land Jammie Robinson, a projected safety with corner potential. The best option on the board may be unsigned long-time LSU commit Maurice Hampton who attends the same high school as current Vols MaLeik Gatewood and Drew Richmond. They could attempt to pursue Kaiir Elam, a lengthy corner considered a Florida lean, but they would have a lot of work to do there.

Offensive tackle: There isn't a list here. It's Darnell Wright. They are believed to be in the lead for his services and there isn't a realistic alternate target. It's Wright or bust.

Offensive playmaker: This would be more of a luxury if they had the room for it, but the staff would like to add an additional playmaker at wide receiver or running back if they have the room and the right target. Former Oklahoma commit Arjei Henderson is a name that has been bandied about, as has #1 wide receiver in the class, Jadon Haselwood. Neither currently seems likely. Under the radar wideout Dywan Griffin could be a realistic possibility. At running back, it currently appears like a new name would need to emerge, but the staff did uncover a few hidden gems last cycle and could look that way again.

Saturday, December 1, 2018

The Good, Bad, and Ugly of Tennessee Football in 2018

Hopes were high but expectations realistic heading into the 2018 season. A new head coach and staff saw renewed hope for the future, but coming off of a 4-8 campaign, the worst season in program history, fans were just hoping for some improvement. So did improvement come?

Well, the record reflects improvement. While the Vols only improved to 5-7 overall, they won two games in the SEC after going winless in the conference in 2017. Not only did they get a pair of conference wins, but both came over teams ranked in the top 25 at the time. However, a collapse at South Carolina and a pair of no-shows against Vanderbilt and Florida left a terrible taste in fans mouths ultimately in spite of the progress shown. But what do the numbers reflect?

Let's begin with the offensive side of the ball, where the Vols will be looking for a new offensive coordinator after Tyson Helton elected to take the head coaching position at Western Kentucky. Helton has previously served as the offensive coordinator at WKU and was well-liked there, so his return isn't a particular surprise. Vol fans also didn't much care for Helton, blaming offensive shortcomings at times fully on the coordinator, but was it justified? Perhaps not. The Vols saw improvement in yards and points per game over 2017, improving in scoring by 3 points per game and 34.4 yards per game despite an abysmal performance against Vanderbilt that fought hard to undo quite a bit of the progress the team had found. The offense also improved its yards per play from 4.77 to 5.46 yards per play. The Vols also allowed 12 fewer sacks this season and allowed a sack per every 12.9 pass attempts as opposed to one per 9.1 attempts in 2017. The Vols increased their rushing yards, passing yards, rushing and passing touchdowns, and improved their turnover margin. 19.1% of the offensive plays run by the Vols this season went for 10+ yards, up from 18% in 2017. They essentially held steady in carries per tackle for loss allowed at ~4.6 carries per tackle for loss. However, they did show progress in yards per carry (3.7 up from 3.4), yards per pass attempt (7.9 up from 6.5), yards per completion (13.4 up from 11.5), 3rd down conversion percentage (38.22% up from 30.67%), 4th down conversions (45.45% up from 30%), and red zone conversions (88.24% up from 80%). Essentially, the Vols held steady or improved in every offensive category.

Defensively, the results were a little more mixed but largely moved in a positive direction. Yards per play allowed by the Vols this season dropped, along with the yards per game and points per game. The Vols improved in yards per play allowed by reducing the yards allowed from 5.94 to 5.67. The yards per game was a pretty meaningful drop from 412.9 yards per game to 377.4, and they reduced points per game from 29.1 to 27.9. They also increased their interceptions from 5 in 2017 to 9 in 2018, and they also improved their passes defended from 37 to 39. Sticking with the pass defense, they reduced opponents passing yards per completion from 12.6 in 2017 to 12.1 yards in 2018, but they saw increases in passing yards per attempt (7.0 in 2017 to 7.6 in 2018) and passing yards per game allowed (161.7 in 2017 to 222.9 in 2018). Those numbers did coincide with improved run defense. The Vols reduced their rushing yards per game allowed from 251.25 in 2017 to 154.5 yards per game in 2018 while dropping the opponent's yards per carry from 5.4 to 4.1 yards. The Vols also saw improvements in opponent 3rd down conversion from 45.45% to 38.96%, increased their sacks from 22 to 25, and tackles for loss from 61 to 68, but the Vols also saw drops in forced fumbles (15 down to 9), fumble recoveries (10 down to 6), 4th down conversions allowed (40% up to 53.85%), and red zone conversions allowed (90% up to 91.1%). The Vols did manage to slightly reduce the percentage of plays going for 10 or more yards from 19.9% down to 19.5%.

There was a lot of turnover on special teams from 2017 to 2018, but the results remained fairly impressive. The most notable improvements included improving on punt returns from 8 yards per return to 12.8 yards per return and 2 touchdowns (technically as one block was returned for a touchdown), 5 blocked kicks (2 in 2017), improved field goal percentage from 66.7% to 76.9%, a reduction in punt returns allowed from 2.5 to just 0.8 returns per game and in punt return yardage allowed from 7.33 to just 2 yards per return, and holding close to stead in punting and kickoffs despite relying on freshmen to fill those roles. Tennessee has proven to be a strong program in special teams over the past decade and has kept that going.

So what's the verdict on the 2018 season? They showed progress, albeit only incremental progress in some areas. With largely the same team in place for much of the season, the coaching shone through. Unfortunately, sometimes coaching can't overcome a deficit in talent and with a head coach holding his first ever job in that role at any level, there were areas for improvement, both on the roster and in coaching. Ultimately, anyone looking for progress can find it, but anyone looking for negatives will be able to find plenty as well. The 2018 season is what you elect to make of it. It was the first step for a new staff, and it was one that displayed incremental improvements. However, 2019 will need to show a much bigger jump, especially with a more forgiving schedule overall.